Equity Research
- Elevated macroeconomic and policy uncertainty suggests that equity volatility should remain high in H2, with multiple potential catalysts for volatility such as the July tariff deadlines. After the reset in cross-asset volatility, there should be more value in outright long vol, long skew hedges.
- Stagflationary shocks remain a key risk for balanced portfolios, in particular with tariff-induced inflation risks into year-end. At the same time, a reflationary rebound, for example due to a more expansionary fiscal stance, could boost growth optimism and real rates. We screen for optimal hedges in these scenarios by comparing projected cross-asset returns with current implied vols.
- Investor option positioning has shifted recently: positioning in equities has turned more bearish and the multi-year high in bullish positioning in EUR/USD has started to moderate. We look for assets with stretched option positioning and low implied volatility to highlight attractive hedges for reversals in positioning.
26 Jun 2025 | 12:01pm| 21pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Andrea Ferrario and others
Traditional Asset Managers remain generally out of favor with investors, with the group trading at 11.9X avg NTM P/E (10.3X excluding BLK and WT), in-line with historical levels on an absolute basis, but with the S&P-rel...
27 Jun 2025 | 4:04am| 61pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Blostein, CFA and others
earnings preview
Budweiser will be reporting its 2Q25 results on July 31st. For China, 2Q still sees industry-level softness and muted on-trade channel with continued de-stocking initiatives, and we expect sequential QoQ volume improveme...
27 Jun 2025 | 1:28am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Leaf Liu and others
IN THE SPOTLIGHT
On June 26, Xiaomi officially released the long-expected YU7, Xiaomi's premium pure electric SUV series that combines performance, comfort and spaciousness. Number of orders reached 200k within the first 3min of sales (out of which 122k+ orders were confirmed), and 289k within the first hour. While Rmb5k deposit for placing orders is refundable within 7 days (consistent with that upon SU7 release) and orders include a small portion converted from outstanding SU7 orders, we believe consumer demand for Xiaomi YU7 far exceeds our and market expectations (i.e. 15k orders within the first 24 hrs), which should enable Xiaomi to continue consolidating its leadership position in the premium auto market in China.
27 Jun 2025 | Research | Equity - Timothy Zhao and others
Also see: CATL (300750.SZ): Read-across from the launch of Xiaomi YU7, bolstering CATL product mix improvement; Buy
GC Tech: Xiaomi AI glasses announced; read across to supply chain; new models pipeline in 2025-26 to attract consumer interest
This inaugural conference will bring together thought leaders and senior executives from the most important companies listed in Asia Pacific to present their corporate strategy, current trends and challenges. Running in parallel with the main presentations, companies will be hosting one-on-one and small group meetings.
event takeaways
Zai Lab (ZLAB): China Healthcare Corporate Day 2025 — Key takeaways: FDA cleared pivotal design for ZL-1310; FY25 guidance reiterated
26 Jun 2025 | 2:37pm| 6pg| Research | Equity-Ziyi Chen and others
Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK): China Healthcare Corporate Day 2025 — Key Takeaways: One major BD deal in the near term
27 Jun 2025 | 12:02am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Ziyi Chen and others
India Industrials: India Manufacturing Tour: Key Takeaways from Day 2
26 Jun 2025 | 3:25am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Pulkit Patni and others
- Company HighlightsBosideng International Holdings (3998.HK): First Take: Moderate beat in core biz; in-line NP with non-OP offset by tax miss; Buy27 Jun 2025 | 12:31am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Michelle Cheng and othersChenbro (8210.TW): Mgmt. visit: ASIC AI servers drive growth ahead; Noise-cancellation racks bring new revenues stream26 Jun 2025 | 11:25pm| 7pg| Research | Equity-Verena Jeng and othersDutch Bros Inc. (BROS): Unique brand positioning driving strong share momentum but seek more favorable entry; initiate at Neutral26 Jun 2025 | 12:12pm| 32pg| Research | Equity-Christine Cho and othersEquinix Inc. (EQIX): Long-term AI investments crimp near-term returns - Analyst Day takeaways26 Jun 2025 | 7:20am| 7pg| Research | Equity-James Schneider, Ph.D. and othersJefferies Financial Group (JEF): 2Q25 EPS: Puts and takes - Better IBanking and comp ratio; worse trading and non-comp expenses26 Jun 2025 | 10:27am| 7pg| Research | Equity-James Yaro and othersShell (SHEL.AS)/BP (BP.L): Potential combination: Addressing five key questions from investors26 Jun 2025 | 1:54pm| 13pg| Research | Equity-Michele Della Vigna, CFA and others
- Industry HighlightsChina Cement: WCC conditionally agrees sale of Xinjiang assets to Anhui Conch; Maintain Buy on Conch-H (on CL)/A, Neutral on WCC26 Jun 2025 | 6:41pm| 7pg| Research | Equity-Trina Chen and othersAmericas Banks: Assessing the impact of the SLR proposal for large banks26 Jun 2025 | 9:53am| 15pg| Research | Equity-Richard Ramsden and othersAmericas Technology: Internet: Analyzing the Impact of AI on Industry Profit Pools – Part I (Advertising Case Study)25 Jun 2025 | 4:18am| 20pg| Research | Equity-James Covello and othersAmericas Clean Energy: Nuclear: Power uprates a potential driver of near- to medium-term upside for the nuclear value chain; Buy CCJ26 Jun 2025 | 4:11am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Brian Lee, CFA and othersSouth Korea Tech: Memory: MU 3QFY25 read-across: constructive 2HCY25 outlook to help ease investors' concerns26 Jun 2025 | 10:41pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Giuni Lee and othersMiddle East Banks: Navigating key debates on Saudi and UAE banks26 Jun 2025 | 12:00pm| 40pg| Research | Equity-Kazim Andac and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYGlobal Strategy Views: Diversify to Amplify; Part 225 Jun 2025 | 12:00pm| 16pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Peter Oppenheimer and othersUS Weekly Kickstart: S&P 500 stocks with the highest prospective risk-adjusted returns20 Jun 2025 | 8:32pm| 19pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and othersGOAL Kickstart: Risk appetite reversal - Middle East tensions and catalysts point to summer hedges24 Jun 2025 | 2:35am| 29pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA and others
- OPTIONSWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (26-Jun-2025)26 Jun 2025 | 11:27pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallWeekly Options Watch: Quarterly Update on Earnings Day Volatility25 Jun 2025 | 5:01pm| 12pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and othersMacro Catalyst Reactions (24-Jun-2025)24 Jun 2025 | 6:45pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John Marshall
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
- All
- Upgrades
- Downgrades
- Initiations
- CL Adds
- CL Removes
Americas Capital Markets: Realign Traditional Managers with organic growth expectations; Buy AMG, BEN; AB, WT to Neutral
27 Jun 2025 | 4:04am| 61pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Blostein, CFA and others
Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS): Unique brand positioning driving strong share momentum but seek more favorable entry; initiate at Neutral
26 Jun 2025 | 12:12pm| 32pg| Research | Equity-Christine Cho and others
I
Entain (ENT.L): Improved risk/reward driven by Online and BetMGM momentum; upgrade to Buy
26 Jun 2025 | 12:00pm| 24pg| Research | Equity-Ben Andrews, CFA and others
Fujimi Inc. (5384.T): Raise our estimates on higher silicon wafer product sales, upgrade to Neutral from Sell
26 Jun 2025 | 6:00am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Atsushi Ikeda and others
Latest research
Europe Beverages: Insights from NABCA: Weak May for US Spirits; Diageo loses share
27 Jun 2025 | 10:24am| 17pg| Research | Equity-Olivier Nicolaï and others
Stifel Financial Corp. (SF): Positive May NNA & Cash metrics; I-Banking guide shows downside to Street
27 Jun 2025 | 10:18am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Blostein, CFA and others
GC Tech: Xiaomi AI glasses announced; read across to supply chain; new models pipeline in 2025-26 to attract consumer interest
27 Jun 2025 | 9:57am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Allen Chang and others
Jabil Circuit Inc. (JBL): Key takeaways from meetings with management
27 Jun 2025 | 8:41am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Mark Delaney, CFA and others
Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD): Preliminary Monthly: Stronger equity and option volumes, offset by weaker crypto volumes
27 Jun 2025 | 8:19am| 6pg| Research | Equity-James Yaro and others
India Industrials: India Manufacturing Tour: Key Takeaways from Day 3
27 Jun 2025 | 7:35am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Pulkit Patni and others
The 720: Xiaomi, Bud APAC, CATL, China Cement, China Healthcare Corp Day, Renesas
27 Jun 2025 | 7:26am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
Americas Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P: Key Takeaways from Investor Meetings with Viper Energy and Diamondback Energy in Boston
27 Jun 2025 | 7:11am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and others
CATL (300750.SZ): Read-across from the launch of Xiaomi YU7, bolstering CATL product mix improvement; Buy
27 Jun 2025 | 6:44am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Eric Shen and others
Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK): Extending leadership in premium autos on YU7's above-expected release, expanding ecosystem frontier on AI Glasses' debut; Buy
27 Jun 2025 | 6:34am| 18pg| Research | Equity-Timothy Zhao and others
Rating changes (last 24 hrs)
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DAILY ROUNDUPS
The 720: Xiaomi, Bud APAC, CATL, China Cement, China Healthcare Corp Day, Renesas
27 Jun 2025 | 7:26am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
Midday Market Intelligence: data dump
27 Jun 2025 | 1:28am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
26 Jun 2025 | 8:36pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
conference: Asia
2-27 Jun 2025 | Virtual
conference: Asia
24-27 Jun 2025 | GS Hong Kong Office (Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen’s Road Central)
Global Investment Research
webcast: Global
27 Jun 2025 | 8am NY | 1pm LN | 8pm HK
James Covello, Head of Equity Research Management
Eric Sheridan, US Internet Equity Analyst
Chris Hussey, US Research Merchandising
Global Investment Research in partnership with FICC and Equities
conference: Europe
30 Jun-4 Jul 2025 | Singapore
We are inviting management and IR teams from CEEMEA companies to participate in one-on-one and small group meetings. The event format will include...Read more
PAST CONFERENCES REPLAYS / TAKEAWAYS
29th European Financials Conference
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46th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
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TechNet China 2025
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Global Staples Forum
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