Equity Research
The Brent oil price has risen over 10% to $70 over the past three months as 1) market focus has shifted from recession to supply disruption risks, 2) OECD stocks remain low, and 3) perceived spare capacity is declining quickly, and concerns about Russia production constraints are rising. We are nudging up our Brent 2025H2 price forecast by $5 to $66, and keep our oversupply-driven forecast that Brent/WTI will decline to 2026 averages of $56/52.
14 Jul 2025 | 11:47pm| 15pg| Research | Commodities-Daan Struyven and others
Last week President Trump signed an extension of the tariff deadline to August 1st and announced higher tariff rates on a number of countries, including 30% on the EU over the weekend. Overall, the impact of tariff and t...
15 Jul 2025 | 3:14am| 29pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Andrea Ferrario and others
Following developments in the rare earth market (with the US DoD entering into a 10-year agreement with MP Materials that sets an NdPr price floor commitment of US$110/kg), we have run NAV sensitivities for both ILU and ...
15 Jul 2025 | 7:23am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Paul Young and others
Pulse check: Unexciting consumption backdrop with increasing risks to 2Q25 earnings
The overall China consumption trend appears unexciting in 2Q25, and we observed sequentially softer trends in multiple sectors including spirits (along with headwinds from policy tightening on anti-extravagance), dairy, sportswear, cosmetics, condiments, and prepared food, though headline numbers (NBS retail sales growth, 618 GMV growth) showed resiliency supported by continuous trade-in policy.
We cut our 2025-2027E sales / NP forecasts for select OEMs within our coverage by 3%/8% on avg., baking in a more cautious view on OEMs's order book (uncertain customer end-market dynamics, ASP headwinds from product mix and competition) and margin headwinds (tariff cost sharing, competition, efficiency loss from supply chain rebalancing, FX volatility).
14 July 2025 | Research | Equity - Michelle Cheng and others
The Staples sector is experiencing a sluggish demand recovery in 2Q25 with weakening on-trade channels on anti-extravagance policy impact, which brought a hard hit on spirits (esp upper-mid end) and added pressure on beer in June vs. May. Pet Foods (618/June tracker) and Beverages continued to see strong volume growth riding on product up cycles (energy drinks/electrolyte water/sugar-free tea) and healthy recovery (Nongfu's water) remains as the bright spot.
14 July 2025 | Research | Equity - Leaf Liu and others
- Giant Biogene Holding (2367.HK): 1H25 Preview: Resilient margin to drive 20% NI growth despite sales hit from recent uncertainty; Buy
- China Consumer Staples: Pet food: 2Q25 preview: short-term pain overseas while domestic intact; Gambol correction overdone, u/g to Buy
- China Consumer Connection: Online Brand Tracker: Accelerating May+Jun vs. Apr; RVC/IMF/White goods led; Condiments lag
- Li Ning Co. (2331.HK): 2Q25 in-line; Sales/margin pressure persists into 2H25; Neutral
- Haidilao International Holding (6862.HK): 1H25 preview: lower forecasts on table turn performance and more value offered to consumers, but easier base in 2H; Neutral
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Michelle Cheng |
Leaf Liu |
Cathy Chen, CFA |
- Company HighlightsEoptolink (300502.SZ): 2Q net profit Rmb2.38bn at mid-point, +340% YoY/ +51% QoQ, above GSe; Buy15 Jul 2025 | 7:04am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Jin Guo and othersNebius Group (NBIS): AI infrastructure pure play with differentiated full stack offering, discounted valuation and positive risk-reward skew; initiate at Buy14 Jul 2025 | 7:37am| 60pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Duval and othersKenvue Inc. (KVUE): A step in the right direction - announced CEO transition and prelim Q2 results14 Jul 2025 | 9:08pm| 7pg| Research | Equity-Bonnie Herzog and othersKawasaki Heavy Industries (7012.T): Focus on whether technology synergies can improve capital returns; Buy (on CL)14 Jul 2025 | 10:42pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Yuichiro Isayama and othersMSCI Inc. (MSCI): Raising estimates based on our proprietary high frequency trackers and optimism around buy-side trends14 Jul 2025 | 4:38pm| 20pg| Research | Equity-George K. Tong, CFA and othersNextEra Energy Inc. (NEE): Updating estimates ahead of 2Q2025 earnings; tax credit implications in focus; stay Buy12 Jul 2025 | 4:01am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Carly Davenport and others
- Industry HighlightsChina Transportation: 2Q25 prelim results: Big 3 & GBIA recur. profit largely in-line, Air China above; focus on softer summer fares15 Jul 2025 | 6:49am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Herbert Lu and othersAmericas Technology: Hardware: C2Q25 Handset market share review: iPhone maintains global share on emerging markets strength15 Jul 2025 | 5:01am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Michael Ng, CFA and othersAmericas Payment Technology: 2Q25 Preview: After a number of tepid guides post Liberation Day, we see an upward bias to numbers14 Jul 2025 | 9:05am| 29pg| Research | Equity-Will Nance and othersAmericas Clean Technology: Solar: 2Q25 Preview: Impact from budget bill likely key focus; continue to favor utility-scale exposure; Buy FSLR/NXT15 Jul 2025 | 4:19am| 32pg| Research | Equity-Brian Lee, CFA and othersTaiwan PCB/CCL: Better ASP/GM outlook in LT driven by AI; Re-iterate Buy on GCE/EMC/TUC and raise TP by ~15%15 Jul 2025 | 8:41am| 25pg| Research | Equity-Chao Wang and othersChina Property Weekly Wrap: Week 28 Wrap - Primary extended decline while secondary plateaued; all eyes on urban renewal policy update15 Jul 2025 | 7:08am| 16pg| Research | Equity-Yi Wang, CFA and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYAussie Weekly Kickstart: CBA drove more than 40% of the ASX 200's FY25 return, becoming a significant headwind to domestic fund manager performance15 Jul 2025 | 2:42am| 23pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Matthew Ross and othersUS Weekly Kickstart: Investor feedback to our revised S&P 500 forecasts12 Jul 2025 | 4:16am| 25pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and others2025 Portfolio Passport: Analyzing foreign sales exposure of US firms15 Jul 2025 | 5:50am| 34pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and others
- OPTIONSOptimal Overwrites this week (14-Jul-25)14 Jul 2025 | 10:34pm| 17pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and othersTop 25 Tactical Trades for Earnings Season10 Jul 2025 | 5:03pm| 28pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and othersWeekly Options Watch: Option buying opportunities ahead of 2Q earnings season9 Jul 2025 | 5:00pm| 11pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and others
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
- All
- Upgrades
- Downgrades
- Initiations
- CL Adds
- CL Removes
China Consumer Staples: Pet food: 2Q25 preview: short-term pain overseas while domestic intact; Gambol correction overdone, u/g to Buy
14 Jul 2025 | 8:19pm| 19pg| Research | Equity-Valerie Zhou and others
Nebius Group (NBIS): AI infrastructure pure play with differentiated full stack offering, discounted valuation and positive risk-reward skew; initiate at Buy
14 Jul 2025 | 7:37am| 60pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Duval and others
I
South Korea Fintech: What are the potential KRW-stablecoin revenue streams? Downgrade Kakaopay to Sell on valuation
14 Jul 2025 | 12:34am| 20pg| Research | Equity-Sinyoung Park and others
Americas Real Estate: REITs: Residential REITs 2Q25 Earnings Preview: Sunbelt recovery delayed, MAA down to Neutral
11 Jul 2025 | 6:00pm| 30pg| Research | Equity-Julien Blouin and others
Latest research
India Pharma: Preview Q1FY26: Double digit topline growth to sustain, but margins to witness some pressure
15 Jul 2025 | 9:16am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Shyam Srinivasan, CFA and others
MRV Engenharia (MRVE3.SA): 2Q25 Operational Preview: In-Line Sales; Cash Burn for Brazil Homebuilder
15 Jul 2025 | 8:56am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Jorel Guilloty and others
VPEC (2455.TW): CFO call: SiPh in strong growth; InP substrate supply recovering; expanding applications to drive long term growth
15 Jul 2025 | 8:52am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Verena Jeng and others
E.ON (EONGn.DE): German regulatory draft suggests ROE ahead of consensus
15 Jul 2025 | 8:43am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Alberto Gandolfi and others
Taiwan PCB/CCL: Better ASP/GM outlook in LT driven by AI; Re-iterate Buy on GCE/EMC/TUC and raise TP by ~15%
15 Jul 2025 | 8:41am| 25pg| Research | Equity-Chao Wang and others
B3 (B3SA3.SA): June data: 2Q25 should benefit from stronger equity ADTV
15 Jul 2025 | 8:11am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Tito Labarta and others
Becton Dickinson & Co. (BDX): Initial Views on Announced Biosciences and Diagnostic Solutions Transaction
15 Jul 2025 | 7:27am| 10pg| Research | Equity-David Roman and others
Australia Metals & Mining: Rare Earths; US$110/kg NdPr floor price would imply ~A$10/sh for ILU (Buy), ~A$10.4/sh for LYC (Neutral)
15 Jul 2025 | 7:23am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Paul Young and others
Arcos Dorados (ARCO): 2Q25 Earnings Preview; Weak Brazil
15 Jul 2025 | 7:23am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Thiago Bortoluci and others
The 720: China Consumer, Giant Biogene, China Pet Food (upgrade Gambol to Buy), KHI, Oil
15 Jul 2025 | 7:18am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
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DAILY ROUNDUPS
The 720: China Consumer, Giant Biogene, China Pet Food (upgrade Gambol to Buy), KHI, Oil
15 Jul 2025 | 7:18am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
Midday Market Intelligence: set-up
15 Jul 2025 | 12:33am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
14 Jul 2025 | 8:13pm| 13pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
WEEKLY ROUNDUPS
End of Week Market Intelligence: tariffs...
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GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - July 11, 2025
12 Jul 2025 | 1:17am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
GS Equity Radar: Revisiting Europe diversification ahead of earnings, Adecco and key research from the week
11 Jul 2025 | 10:09pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Sahar Islam and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
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Global Investment Research
webcast: Asia
16 Jul 2025 | 8:30am HK | 8:30pm NY(-1) | 1:30am LN
We will discuss the path to commercialization for robotaxis in China, opportunities along the value chain, and address key debates.
Allen Chang, Head of Greater China Tech Research
Ronald Keung, CFA, Head of Asia Internet Research
Verena Jeng, Greater China Tech Analyst
Lincoln Kong, CFA, Asia Internet Analyst
Tina Hou, China Autos Analyst
Caleb Chan, Asia Research Merchandising
Passcode: 104250; Meeting ID: 962 5970 9291
Global Investment Research in partnership with Global banking & Markets
webcast: Asia
16 Jul 2025 | 10am HK | 10pm NY(-1) | 3am LN
This call is a part of China in Motion.
Ronald Keung, CFA, Head of Asia Internet Research
Passcode: 420102; Meeting ID: 945 9649 2241
Global Investment Research
webcast: Asia
16 Jul 2025 | 4pm HK | 4am NY | 9am LN
We will discuss the impact of anti-extravagance policy on the China staples sector, preview 2Q results, and highlight our key stock ideas.
Leaf Liu, China Consumer Staples Analyst
Valerie Zhou, China Consumer Staples Analyst
Caleb Chan, Asia Research Merchandising
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