How McKinsey lost its edge
麦肯锡如何失去优势

“Business has been forced to adjust itself to staggering acceleration in the rate of change,” observed McKinsey, a consultancy, in a promotional pamphlet it published in 1940. “What period in history has ever presented more difficult problems for the executive?” Naturally, demand for McKinsey’s advice was soaring, it wrote.
麦肯锡咨询公司在 1940 年发布的宣传册中写道："商业世界被迫适应变化速度的惊人加速，历史上哪个时期曾给管理者带来过比这更棘手的难题？"自然，文中指出，对麦肯锡咨询服务的需求正在激增。

These too are times of upheaval. Geopolitics is forcing companies to rethink where and how they operate. Artificial intelligence (AI) is filling bosses with excitement at the opportunity to replace costly humans with bots, and fear that their business models may be disrupted. And yet McKinsey, the most illustrious of consultancies, finds itself in the doldrums.
这也是一个动荡的时代。地缘政治正迫使企业重新思考运营的地点和方式。人工智能让老板们既兴奋于用机器人取代高成本人力的机会，又担忧其商业模式可能被颠覆。然而，作为咨询业最负盛名的麦肯锡，却发现自己陷入了低迷。

McKinsey has long regarded itself as operating in a league of its own. Ron Daniel, its boss from 1976 to 1988, talked of an “organisation of genuine greatness” filled with “superior people”. Bob Sternfels, McKinsey’s leader today, prefers to describe it as “distinctive”. This sense of superiority, though nauseating, is not entirely without justification. McKinsey is the biggest and best known of the strategy advisers. Its alumni run 24 of America’s 500 most valuable companies, according to Altrata, a data provider; the figures for Bain and BCG, its two principal rivals, are seven and five, respectively.
麦肯锡长期自视为独树一帜的存在。1976 至 1988 年执掌该公司的罗恩·丹尼尔曾形容这是由"卓越人才"组成的"真正伟大的组织"。现任领导者鲍勃·斯特恩费尔斯更倾向于用"卓尔不群"来描述。这种优越感虽然令人不适，却也并非全无道理。麦肯锡是规模最大、知名度最高的战略咨询公司。据数据提供商 Altrata 统计，其校友执掌着美国 500 家最具价值企业中的 24 家；而其主要竞争对手贝恩和波士顿咨询集团的这一数字分别为 7 家和 5 家。

Until recently, “the Firm”, as it calls itself, was growing at a stunning pace. Its revenue last year, at a little over $16bn, was more than double the figure in 2012 (see chart). Yet after a phase of rapid expansion, its revenue growth in 2024 was a meagre 2%, according to estimates from Kennedy Intelligence, an industry watcher. Since the end of 2023 it has shrunk its workforce from 45,000 to 40,000. Economic uncertainty is only partly to blame; McKinsey has bled market share to rivals. How did the legendary consultancy, which turns 100 next year, lose its edge?
直到不久前，这家自称"公司"的咨询巨头还保持着惊人的增速。其去年 160 多亿美元的收入是 2012 年的两倍多（见图表）。然而行业观察机构 Kennedy Intelligence 估计，在经历了快速扩张阶段后，2024 年其收入增长率仅为 2%。自 2023 年底以来，员工人数已从 4.5 万缩减至 4 万。经济不确定性只是部分原因；麦肯锡的市场份额正被竞争对手蚕食。这家明年将迎来百年华诞的传奇咨询公司，究竟是如何失去优势的？

McKinsey likes to pretend that its services are “sought, not sold”, in the words of Marvin Bower, who led the firm from 1950 to 1967. Yet that was hardly the case in its recent frenzied expansion. At a partner meeting in Berlin in 2013, Dominic Barton, McKinsey’s leader from 2009 to 2018, made it clear that growth was now the priority. “Ask for forgiveness, not permission,” he instructed, according to a former grandee who attended the meeting.
麦肯锡喜欢标榜其服务是"被寻求而非被推销"——这是 1950 至 1967 年执掌公司的马文·鲍尔的名言。但在近期疯狂扩张中，情况显然并非如此。2013 年柏林合伙人会议上，2009 至 2018 年担任麦肯锡全球总裁的鲍达民明确将增长列为首要任务。据一位与会的前高管回忆，他当时指示道："先斩后奏"。

Plenty of forgiveness would be needed, as the firm expanded partly by throwing caution—and qualms—to the wind. Through the 2010s McKinsey helped opioid manufacturers peddle their drugs to addicts in America and profited from ill-gotten contracts with state-owned companies in South Africa (it has admitted wrongdoing and settled with prosecutors in both cases). Kevin Sneader, who took over from Mr Barton, introduced new controls in an effort to stamp out misbehaviour, only to be ousted in 2021 and replaced by Mr Sternfels, who promised to “return McKinsey to the partners”. To his credit, McKinsey’s boss, who speaks of the need to balance “empowerment” with “accountability”, has persisted with the effort to keep partners on the straight and narrow.
随着公司部分业务扩张时对风险与顾虑的放任态度，麦肯锡需要获得大量谅解。2010 年代期间，麦肯锡曾协助阿片类药物制造商向美国瘾君子推销药品，并从南非国有企业的非法合同中获利（该公司已承认这两起事件中的不当行为并与检方达成和解）。接替巴顿职位的凯文·斯尼德推行了新的管控措施以杜绝不当行为，却在 2021 年遭罢免，由承诺"让麦肯锡回归合伙人本位"的鲍勃·斯特恩费尔斯接任。值得肯定的是，这位常提及需平衡"授权"与"问责"的麦肯锡掌舵人，始终致力于引导合伙人们恪守正道。

The scandals of the past decade tarnished McKinsey’s public image. But any deeper impact on its business was obscured by the surge in demand for consultants during and immediately after the pandemic, as bosses sought help with diversifying their supply chains, greening their operations and dragging their businesses into the digital age.
过去十年的丑闻损害了麦肯锡的公众形象。但疫情期间及刚结束后，企业对咨询服务的需求激增，掩盖了这些事件对其业务的更深层影响——当时企业高管们纷纷寻求帮助以实现供应链多元化、业务绿色化以及数字化转型。

McKinsey was well placed to meet the moment thanks to another source of its growth over the preceding years: the expansion of its digital practice. In the 2010s, as many chief executives grew increasingly nervous that their companies would be the next victims of digital disruption, McKinsey invested to expand its offerings. Between 2013 and 2023 it acquired at least 16 specialist technology consultancies, giving it the ability to assist clients not only with their digital strategies, but everything from prototyping new products to building whizzy data-crunching tools.
麦肯锡能够从容应对这一时刻，得益于其过去几年增长的另一个来源：数字化业务的扩张。2010 年代，随着许多企业高管日益担忧自己的公司将成为数字化颠覆的下一个受害者，麦肯锡加大投入以拓展服务范围。2013 至 2023 年间，该公司收购了至少 16 家专业技术咨询公司，使其不仅能协助客户制定数字战略，还能提供从新产品原型设计到构建炫酷数据处理工具的全方位服务。

That points to the final source of the firm’s recent expansion, as it has pushed more widely into implementing its own advice. Having counselled a client to spruce up its technology, sharpen its operations or squeeze its suppliers, McKinsey will often now hold their hands through the process. That has meant muscling in on a segment of the consulting market traditionally dominated by Accenture and the “big four” professional-services giants, which charge considerably lower rates, notes Tom Rodenhauser of Kennedy Intelligence. To compete, McKinsey has had to rethink how it charges clients (fees are now often tied to the results of a project) and whom it hires (focusing less on generalists, more on geeks and grizzled executives).
这揭示了麦肯锡近期扩张的最终动因——该公司正更广泛地介入咨询方案的实施环节。在为客户提供技术升级、运营优化或供应链压降建议后，麦肯锡如今往往会全程参与落地过程。肯尼迪咨询公司的汤姆·罗登豪泽指出，此举意味着麦肯锡正强势切入埃森哲和"四大"专业服务巨头长期主导的咨询市场领域，而这些竞争对手的收费要低得多。为应对竞争，麦肯锡不得不重构收费模式（现多采用与项目成效挂钩的计费方式）并调整人才战略（减少通才型顾问，增加技术专家与资深高管的比例）。

The trouble is that BCG, its closest competitor, has done much the same thing, but to even greater effect. A former McKinsey heavyweight explains that its rival has been more adept at deploying and retaining specialists. Perhaps it is unsurprising that an organisation of “superior people” has struggled with this. But the consequences have been striking. McKinsey’s revenue in 2012 was more than twice BCG’s; in 2024 it was only a fifth larger. BCG’s revenue grew by 10% in 2024, five times as fast as McKinsey’s (Bain, the smallest of the three, expanded about as quickly as BCG).
问题在于，麦肯锡最接近的竞争对手波士顿咨询集团（BCG）采取了几乎相同的策略，却取得了更显著的成效。一位麦肯锡前高管坦言，对手在专家团队的部署与留用上更为得心应手。对于这个由"精英中的精英"组成的机构而言，这种困境或许并不令人意外，但其影响却触目惊心：2012 年麦肯锡营收曾是 BCG 的两倍多，到 2024 年却仅领先五分之一。2024 年 BCG 营收增长达 10%，增速是麦肯锡的五倍（三大咨询公司中最小的贝恩，增速与 BCG 基本持平）。

BCG has recently faced criticism of its own over its work with the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, an Israeli-American aid initiative, which reportedly included modelling the cost of relocating Palestinians from the war-torn region. BCG has fired the two partners responsible and disavowed the work, which it says was unauthorised. A tightening of controls will probably follow, which might slow the firm down. But if it doesn’t, BCG is on track to become the strategy trio’s top dog by revenue in 2027.
波士顿咨询集团(BCG)近期也因其与以美援助组织"加沙人道基金会"的合作而受到批评。据报道，该合作包括为巴勒斯坦民众从战乱地区迁移的成本建模。BCG 已解雇两名涉事合伙人并否认该项目，称其未经授权。公司可能会加强管控，这或许会拖慢发展步伐。但若管控得当，BCG 有望在 2027 年超越麦肯锡和贝恩，成为三大战略咨询公司中营收最高的企业。

And it is not the only competitor looming. As companies shift their attention towards AI as a means of transforming their businesses, they are looking to McKinsey and its fellow consultancies for help. But they are also turning to less conventional partners. Palantir, an analytics firm, offers tools to feed enterprise data into AI models, and embeds its so-called forward-deployed engineers with its clients to get them up and running. Its revenue is still small (just under $3bn in 2024) but is growing at a blistering pace (39%, year on year, in the first quarter of 2025). Although it began by serving governments, it now makes over two-fifths of its revenue from businesses. Its market value has risen six-fold over the past year, to roughly $365bn.
麦肯锡并非唯一虎视眈眈的竞争者。当企业将人工智能视为业务转型手段时，他们既向麦肯锡等传统咨询公司寻求帮助，也开始转向非传统合作伙伴。数据分析公司 Palantir 提供将企业数据导入 AI 模型的工具，并派驻所谓"前线部署工程师"协助客户快速落地应用。其营收规模虽仍较小（2024 年不足 30 亿美元），但增速惊人（2025 年第一季度同比增长 39%）。尽管最初服务于政府机构，如今企业客户贡献其超五分之二收入。过去一年其市值飙升六倍，达到约 3650 亿美元。

Analysts at UBS, a bank, describe Palantir as “McKinsey meets Databricks”, alluding to a software company whose tools also help enterprises connect their data with AI models. That sounds a lot like QuantumBlack, McKinsey’s own AI unit, which has become the crown jewel of its digital practice. Other AI companies are taking inspiration from Palantir, too. OpenAI, maker of ChatGPT, has begun offering a consulting-like service to help businesses deploy its models.
瑞银分析师将 Palantir 比作"麦肯锡与 Databricks 的结合体"，暗指这家软件公司的工具同样能帮助企业将数据与 AI 模型对接。这听起来与麦肯锡旗下 AI 部门 QuantumBlack 极为相似——该部门已成为其数字化业务中的皇冠明珠。其他 AI 公司也在效仿 Palantir 的模式，ChatGPT 的创造者 OpenAI 已开始提供类咨询服务，协助企业部署其模型。

Some argue that consulting will always be a sideshow for these firms, which would much rather be valued by investors as software companies. Yet with businesses struggling to take advantage of AI, those developing the technology may conclude that it is necessary to be in the trenches with their clients, not least because it will help with improving their software. In time, this may force McKinsey and its traditional competitors to revert to their role as strategic advisers.
有人认为，咨询业务对这些企业而言永远只是配角，它们更希望被投资者视为软件公司。然而，随着各行业在利用人工智能方面举步维艰，技术开发者们可能会意识到必须与客户并肩作战——这不仅有助于优化他们的软件产品。假以时日，这或许会迫使麦肯锡及其传统竞争对手重新回归战略顾问的本职角色。

For now, that core business is continuing to grow healthily at McKinsey. Eventually, however, the AI revolution may come for it as well. Strategy projects combine deep cogitation with a good deal of grunt work, notes Fiona Czerniawska of Source Global Research, another industry watcher. Consultants must comb through spreadsheets and prepare reams of PowerPoint slides in order to make their recommendations look as robust as possible.
目前，麦肯锡的核心业务仍在健康增长。然而，人工智能革命终将席卷这一领域。行业观察机构 Source Global Research 的菲奥娜·切尔尼亚夫斯卡指出，战略咨询项目既需要深度思考，也包含大量繁琐工作。咨询师们必须梳理海量数据表格，制作成堆的 PPT 幻灯片，只为让他们的建议显得无懈可击。

Before long a bot may be able to do a good chunk of that; after all, plenty of consultants already sound like one. At first that may be advantageous for McKinsey. Kate Smaje, its technology chief, says that AI will make its teams faster and better. Sooner or later, though, clients may start to wonder why they are paying such enormous sums when much of the work is being done by a technology they could use themselves. McKinsey’s corpus of intellectual property, which it has already fed into its own bot, Lilli, might shield it for a time. But AI models are becoming cleverer with startling speed. To survive its second century, let alone thrive, McKinsey will have to be distinctive indeed. ■
不久后，机器人或许就能完成其中大部分工作；毕竟，许多咨询顾问的发言已经像机器人一样。起初这对麦肯锡可能有利。其技术主管凯特·斯马杰表示，人工智能将使团队更高效优质。但迟早客户会开始质疑：当大部分工作可由他们自用的技术完成时，为何还要支付如此高昂费用？麦肯锡已将其知识产权库输入自研机器人"莉莉"，这或许能暂时护其周全。但人工智能模型正以惊人速度变得更聪明。要在第二个世纪生存下去（更不用说蓬勃发展），麦肯锡必须真正与众不同。■

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