Donald Trump thinks he’s winning on trade, but America will lose
唐纳德·特朗普认为他在贸易上获胜，但美国会输

MORE than 100 days after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day”, the new global trading order is becoming clear. It is a system of imperial preference. Canada has angered the president, partly by planning to recognise Palestine as a state, and so it faces a duty of 35%. Because Mr Trump reckons that exporters unfairly cheat America, on July 31st he said he would impose “reciprocal” tariffs on many trading partners, ranging from 10% to 41%. Meanwhile, in order to ward off tariff threats the European Union, Japan and South Korea have all struck deals with Mr Trump, where they promise to open their markets and invest hundreds of billions of dollars in America, in return for levies on their exports of 15%.
米 ORE 在唐纳德·特朗普总统的“解放日”100 多天后，新的全球贸易秩序正在变得清晰。这是一个帝国优惠制度。加拿大激怒了总统，部分原因是计划承认巴勒斯坦为一个国家，因此它面临 35% 的义务。由于特朗普认为出口商不公平地欺骗美国，他在 7 月 31 日表示，他将对许多贸易伙伴征收 10% 至 41% 的“互惠”关税。与此同时，为了抵御关税威胁，欧盟、日本和韩国都与特朗普达成协议，承诺开放市场，向美国投资数千亿美元，以换取对其出口征收 15%的税。

A seductive idea is settling in that America is winning from all this. The president has, after all, got his biggest trading partners to make deals that are closer to his demands than theirs. Financial markets have shrugged off higher duties, the real economy shows little sign of damage and all the time tariff revenues are rolling in. But that thinking is deeply misguided. The game is not over. And it is one that America cannot win.
一种诱人的想法正在形成，即美国正在从这一切中获胜。毕竟，总统已经让他最大的贸易伙伴达成了比他们的要求更接近他的要求的交易。金融市场已经摆脱了更高的关税，实体经济几乎没有受到损害的迹象，关税收入一直在滚滚而来。但这种想法被严重误导了。比赛还没有结束。这是美国无法赢得的。

For all the crowing about how Trump Always Chickens Out, the president has pressed forward with tariffs. America’s effective tariff rate is due to rise to 18% on August 7th, according to the Yale Budget Lab, nearly eight times the prevailing rate last year, and back to levels last seen in the Depression. The way MAGA paints it, this is a triumph for Mr Trump, because America’s trading partners are eating higher tariffs, helping US Customs rake in nigh on $30bn in revenues a month. Unfortunately, that idea is gaining currency even outside America. Soon after the eu struck its deal with Mr Trump, opponents in European capitals lamented the fact that the bloc would have to pay.
尽管人们对特朗普总是退缩的呐喊，但总统却继续推进关税。根据耶鲁大学预算实验室的数据，美国的有效关税税率将于 8 月 7 日升至 18%，几乎是去年现行税率的八倍，并回到大萧条时期的水平。按照 MAGA 的描述，这对特朗普来说是一场胜利，因为美国的贸易伙伴正在加征更高的关税，帮助美国海关每月赚取近 300 亿美元的收入。不幸的是，这种想法甚至在美国以外也越来越流行。 欧盟与特朗普达成协议后不久，欧洲各国首都的反对者对欧盟必须付出代价感到遗憾。

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of trade economics. Years of experience show that tariffs do not harm the sellers of goods as much as they harm the buyers. The more the president raises tariffs, the more his own compatriots will be deprived of choice at low prices. Even though foreign suppliers are lowering their prices more steeply than after Mr Trump’s first-term tariffs, analysts at Goldman Sachs reckon that fully four-fifths of tariff costs have so far been borne by American firms and consumers. Just ask Ford, or GM: the carmakers reckon they paid $800m and $1.1bn in tariff costs, respectively, in the second quarter of this year alone.
这是对贸易经济学的根本误解。多年的经验表明，关税对商品卖方的伤害并不大，而是对买方的伤害。总统越是提高关税，自己的同胞就越会被低价剥夺选择权。尽管外国供应商的价格比特朗普第一任期征收关税后大幅降低，但高盛的分析师估计，迄今为止，五分之四的关税成本由美国公司和消费者承担。只要问问福特或通用汽车就知道了：汽车制造商估计，仅今年第二季度，他们就分别支付了 800 亿美元和 11 亿美元的关税成本。

What of the muted economic and financial market reaction so far? The IMF has raised its projections for both global and American economic growth this year, compared with forecasts it made in April. Although it has fallen since Mr Trump signed his order, the S&P 500 remains nearly 12% higher than it was on Liberation Day; the dollar, though down, has strengthened in recent weeks.
迄今为止，经济和金融市场反应平淡呢？与4月份的预测相比，国际货币基金组织上调了今年全球和美国经济增长的预测。尽管自特朗普签署命令以来，标准普尔 500 指数有所下跌，但仍比解放日高出近 12%;美元虽然下跌，但最近几周有所走强。

The answer is that the economy is being buffeted by various forces, including heavy stockpiling before tariffs came into effect—delaying the pain, but not eliminating it—as well as an extraordinary boom in artificial-intelligence-based capital spending. According to Renaissance Macro Research, capital investments in AI have contributed more to America’s gdp growth in the past two quarters than all of consumer spending. Partly propelled by this, stockmarkets have gone from strength to strength. Perhaps, too, investors believe that companies will adapt to higher tariffs. The incentive to route trade through places with relatively low duties will be strong—even though Mr Trump has vowed to punish such “trans-shipment” with tariffs of 40%. An uncomfortable dynamic has also set in: because investors think that the president will eventually chicken out, they are emboldening him to press ahead.
答案是，经济正受到各种力量的冲击，包括关税生效前的大量囤积——延迟了痛苦，但并没有消除痛苦——以及基于人工智能的资本支出的异常繁荣。根据 Renaissance Macro Research 的数据，过去两个季度，人工智能的资本投资对美国 GDP 增长的贡献超过了所有消费者支出。部分受此推动，股市不断走强。也许投资者也相信公司会适应更高的关税。通过关税相对较低的地方进行贸易的动机将很强——尽管特朗普发誓要对这种“转运”征收 40% 的关税。一种令人不安的动态也出现了：因为投资者认为总统最终会退缩，所以他们鼓励他继续前进。

As he does so, however, the long-term costs to the economy will mount. In the name of fairness Mr Trump is discarding a multilateral system in which tariffs were charged on the same goods, regardless of where they came from. In its place is a bilateral system where products can face differential rates depending on their origin. These new rates are not just higher; they are subject to ceaseless bargaining over almost any issue. Just this week, those issues included the Brazilian courts’ pursuit of a Trump ally and a border war between Thailand and Cambodia. Because tariff policy is set by one man alone, the bargaining will be subject to lobbying and presidential whim. Because of who he is, Mr Trump will consider exemptions when he is next flattered, and threaten duties when he is next displeased.
然而，当他这样做时，经济的长期成本将会增加。特朗普以公平的名义摒弃了对相同商品征收关税的多边体系，无论它们来自哪里。取而代之的是双边系统，产品可能会根据其原产地面临不同的费率。这些新费率不仅更高，而且更高。他们几乎在任何问题上都要不断讨价还价。就在本周，这些问题还包括巴西法院追捕特朗普盟友以及泰国和柬埔寨之间的边境战争。由于关税政策是由一个人单独制定的，因此讨价还价将受到游说和总统突发奇想的影响。由于他的身份，特朗普会在下一次受宠若惊时考虑豁免，并在下一次不高兴时威胁要履行职责。

American shoppers will pay the price. Once they were spoilt for choice, as both domestic and foreign producers competed to sell to them. Now the companies that succeed will do so not only because they are the most innovative, but also because they are the cleverest at playing the system. And remember that a ratchet effect is at work here. When—or rather, if—future presidents want to restore tariffs to their original level, they will be met by furious lobbying from American firms that got used to sheltering behind tariff barriers and have thereby become uncompetitive in world markets. Everything about this is harmful. And, whatever Mr Trump says, nothing about it is fair. ■
美国购物者将付出代价。曾经，他们被宠坏了，因为国内外生产商都竞相向他们出售。现在成功的公司会这样做，不仅是因为它们最具创新性，还因为它们最聪明地玩弄系统。请记住，棘轮效应在这里起作用。当——或者更确切地说，如果——未来的总统想要将关税恢复到原来的水平时，他们将遭到美国公司的激烈游说，这些公司已经习惯于躲在关税壁垒后面，从而在世界市场上变得缺乏竞争力。这一切都是有害的。而且，无论特朗普说什么，一切都不公平。■