Abstracte
抽象

This study aims to explore the impact of agricultural drought in China in the context of climate change, focusing on analysing historical trends and future risks. Spatial analysis tools and drought indices (such as SPI and SPEI) are employed to analyse drought patterns from 1980 to 2024, as well as their correlation with total grain production. The results of the analysis indicate that SPI is more sensitive than traditional indicators and provides a more direct reflection of the impact of agricultural drought. Based on this finding, the study predicts that, as the frequency of extreme weather events increases, future droughts will become increasingly correlated with SPI. This suggests a potential shift in drought dynamics. Alongside quantitative analysis, the study conducts a critical review of China's drought governance, highlighting institutional deficiencies such as insufficient farmer participation, inadequate early warning systems and a lack of transparency in information sharing. A comparative analysis with the United States helps to identify more decentralised, farmer-participatory strategies, particularly with regard to public data access, risk insurance and local adaptation. The study's findings suggest that enhancing transparency, leveraging technology and promoting bottom-up participation are essential for strengthening China's drought resilience.
本研究旨在探讨气候变化背景下中国农业干旱的影响，重点分析历史趋势和未来风险。空间分析工具和干旱指数（如 SPI 和 SPEI）用于分析 1980 年至 2024 年的干旱模式，以及它们与粮食总产量的相关性。分析结果表明，SPI 比传统指标更敏感，可以更直接地反映农业干旱的影响。基于这一发现，该研究预测，随着极端天气事件频率的增加，未来的干旱将与 SPI 越来越相关。这表明干旱动态可能会发生变化。除了定量分析外，该研究还对中国的干旱治理进行了批判性审查，强调了农民参与不足、预警系统不足和信息共享缺乏透明度等制度缺陷。与美国的比较分析有助于确定更加分散的、农民参与式的战略，特别是在公共数据访问、风险保险和本地适应方面。研究结果表明，提高透明度、利用技术和促进自下而上的参与对于增强中国的抗旱能力至关重要。

1 Introduction
1 引言

Drought is regarded as a major environmental disaster that has garnered significant attention across various academic fields, including ecology, hydrology, meteorology, geology, and agricultural science (Mishra & Singh, 2010). It is viewed as one of the most widespread and destructive natural disasters worldwide, threatening agricultural productivity, water resource security, and socio-economic stability.
干旱被视为一种重大的环境灾难，在包括生态学、水文学、气象学、地质学和农业科学在内的各个学术领域都引起了极大的关注（Mishra & Singh，2010）。它被视为全球范围最广、最具破坏性的自然灾害之一，威胁着农业生产力、水资源安全和社会经济稳定。

In the early 1980s, severe droughts impacted Africa, India, North America, China, the Soviet Union, Australia, and Western Europe, showing that both developed and developing countries are highly vulnerable to drought. These events have heightened concerns about their causes, impacts, and future mitigation strategies (Van Loon, 2015). Recently, due to global warming, the frequency and severity of droughts have increased, affecting nearly every region worldwide. Frequent droughts are closely linked to food shortages, the spread of diseases, and economic losses. Unlike other natural disasters such as floods or hurricanes, droughts are characterized by their slow onset, long duration, widespread effects, and the difficulty of accurately measuring their damages; therefore, they are often called ‘hidden disasters’ because their broad and pervasive impacts tend to be overlooked (Ndayiragije & Li, 2022; Van Loon, 2015). It’s also important to note that droughts are not limited to dry or semi-arid regions; even humid areas can experience droughts when rainfall remains below the level of evapotranspiration. Essentially, droughts result from a prolonged imbalance in the water cycle (Wilhite & Glantz, 1985). As a progressive disaster, the accumulated effects—such as ecosystem degradation, soil depletion, disruption of the nitrogen cycle, and water shortages—are often ignored initially but can ultimately lead to food security crises and social issues (Pulwarty & Sivakumar, 2014).
在 1980 年代初期，严重干旱影响了非洲、印度、北美、中国、苏联、澳大利亚和西欧，这表明发达国家和发展中国家都极易受到干旱的影响。这些事件加剧了人们对其原因、影响和未来缓解策略的担忧（Van Loon，2015 年）。最近，由于全球变暖，干旱的频率和严重程度有所增加，几乎影响了全球每个地区。频繁的干旱与粮食短缺、疾病传播和经济损失密切相关。与洪水或飓风等其他自然灾害不同，干旱的特点是发病缓慢 、持续时间长、影响广泛，以及难以准确衡量其损失;因此，它们通常被称为 ' 隐藏的灾害 '，因为它们的广泛和普遍的影响往往被忽视（Ndayiragije & Li， 2022;Van Loon，2015 年）。 同样重要的是要注意，干旱不仅限于干旱或半干旱地区;当降雨量低于蒸散水平时，即使是潮湿地区也会发生干旱。基本上，干旱是由于水循环中的长期不平衡造成的（Wilhite & Glantz， 1985）。作为一场渐进的灾难，其累积效应 —— 如生态系统退化、土壤枯竭、氮循环中断和水资源短缺 —— 最初往往被忽视 ，但最终可能导致粮食安全危机和社会问题（Pulwarty & Sivakumar，2014）。

Drought is a persistent and widespread natural disaster that significantly impacts agricultural production and the farmers who rely on it (Maybank et al., 1995). During drought conditions, prolonged severe soil moisture deficiency directly causes a substantial decline in crop yields, and in some cases, complete crop failure. The reduction in grain production threatens national and regional food security and has a profound effect on farmers' essential livelihood security. Additionally, the livestock sector suffers as well, with shortages of forage and drinking water leading to higher livestock mortality rates and decreased productivity, which worsens the overall vulnerability of the agricultural system. For most farmers whose primary livelihood depends on agriculture, the loss of yields and income due to drought worsens rural poverty, increases economic hardships, and pushes some households into survival crises.
干旱是一种持续而广泛的自然灾害，对农业生产和依赖它的农民产生重大影响（Maybank et al.， 1995）。在干旱条件下，长期严重的土壤水分缺乏直接导致作物产量大幅下降， 在某些情况下，作物完全歉收。粮食减产威胁着国家和地区的粮食安全，对 农民的基本生计保障产生了深远影响。此外，畜牧业也受到影响，草料和饮用水短缺导致牲畜死亡率升高和生产力下降，这加剧了农业系统的整体脆弱性。对于大多数以农业为主要生计的农民来说，干旱造成的产量和收入损失加剧了农村贫困，加剧了经济困难，并将一些家庭推入生存危机。

In addition, the agricultural crisis caused by drought may also lead to rural population outflows, with some farmers being forced to migrate to cities or other regions in search of livelihoods, resulting in changes to the rural labor force structure and worsening the imbalance in urban-rural development. Prolonged and recurring droughts have been shown to accelerate soil degradation and desertification in farmland, further weakening farmers' livelihoods and the region's capacity for sustainable agricultural development. This is why many farmers migrate to cities to find employment.
此外，干旱引发的农业危机还可能导致农村人口外流，一些农民被迫迁移到城市或其他地区寻找生计，导致农村劳动力结构发生变化，加剧城乡发展失衡。 事实证明，长期和反复发生的干旱会加速农田的土壤退化和荒漠化，进一步削弱农民的生计和该地区可持续农业发展的能力 。这就是为什么许多农民迁移到城市寻找工作的原因。

Since 1949, the Chinese government has regularly faced various natural disasters, including droughts, floods, and earthquakes. These events have not only threatened people's lives and property but also caused significant setbacks to the country's socio-economic progress. In response to the frequent occurrence of disasters, the government has continuously implemented institutional and policy reforms, aiming to enhance the nation's disaster prevention, mitigation, and drought resistance capabilities. Key measures include building and upgrading disaster warning and response systems, strengthening water conservation infrastructure, promoting drought-tolerant and water-efficient agricultural technologies, and improving agricultural insurance and disaster relief subsidy policies. These efforts have significantly improved China's overall capacity to manage droughts and other natural disasters, effectively reducing their harmful effects and playing a vital role in securing national food supplies and social stability (Gang, 2014).
自 1949 年以来，中国政府经常面临各种自然灾害，包括干旱、洪水和地震。这些事件不仅威胁到人们的生命和财产，也给该国的社会经济进步造成了重大挫折。为应对灾害频发，政府不断实施制度和政策改革，旨在提高国家的防灾、减灾和抗旱能力。主要措施包括建设和升级灾害预警和响应系统，加强节水基础设施，推广耐旱和节水农业技术，以及改善农业保险和救灾补贴政策。这些努力显著提高了中国管理干旱和其他自然灾害的整体能力，有效减少了其有害影响，并在确保国家粮食供应和社会稳定方面发挥了至关重要的作用（Gang，2014）。

The North China Plain (NCP) is one of China's most vulnerable regions and is vital for the country's food security. It contains over 30% of China's population but only 18% of the country's arable land (Wikipedia, n.d.). The region's crop rotation system is primarily comprised of winter wheat and summer corn, both of which are heavily dependent on reliable water sources. However, the region's climate conditions and excessive groundwater extraction have led to frequent droughts, further exacerbating water shortages and increasing the region's vulnerability to extreme weather events. This vulnerability has environmental and social implications for residents. It is increasingly acknowledged that the impact of drought risk extends beyond crop yields. Traditional research has typically focused on the decline in productivity or soil degradation caused by drought. However, recent studies have shown that drought also exacerbates structural inequality in rural areas, especially in regions with weak institutional, technological, and economic support. Still, there is a lack of comprehensive research linking climate indicators to agricultural outcomes, institutional responses, and the experiences of rural communities. This study aims to address this gap by conducting a multidimensional analysis of drought impacts and response measures in China's agricultural heartland.
华北平原 （NCP） 是中国最脆弱的地区之一，对该国的粮食安全至关重要。它包含中国 30% 以上的人口，但只有 18% 的可耕地 （维基百科，日期不详）。 该地区的作物轮作系统主要由冬小麦和夏玉米组成，这两种作物都严重依赖可靠的水源。然而，该地区的气候条件和过度的地下水开采导致频繁的干旱，进一步加剧了水资源短缺，并增加了该地区对极端天气事件的脆弱性。这种脆弱性对居民具有环境和社会影响 。人们越来越认识到，干旱风险的影响不仅限于农作物产量。 传统研究通常集中在干旱引起的生产力下降或土壤退化上。然而，最近的研究表明，干旱也加剧了农村地区的结构性不平等，尤其是在制度、技术和经济支持薄弱的地区。 尽管如此，目前仍缺乏将气候指标与农业成果、机构应对措施和农村社区经验联系起来的综合研究。本研究旨在通过对中国农业中心地带的干旱影响和应对措施进行多维分析来填补这一差距。

1.2 Defining Types of Droughts and Their Implications
1.2 定义干旱的类型及其影响

Drought is a kind of natural disaster that can show up in different ways. People usually divide it into four main types, based on what causes it and what problems it brings. Mishra and Singh (2010) pointed out these four types: meteorological drought, agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and socio-economic drought.
干旱是一种自然灾害，可以以不同的方式表现出来。人们通常根据原因和带来的问题将其分为四种主要类型。Mishra 和 Singh （2010） 指出了这四种类型：气象干旱、农业干旱、水文干旱和社会经济干旱。

Meteorological drought starts when rainfall drops far below the usual level during a certain period. This type often shows up first. It is also the easiest to notice. People usually track it by looking at how much rain has fallen. One simple way to measure it is by using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).
当降雨量在一定时期内远低于正常水平时，气象干旱就开始了。这种类型通常首先出现。它也是最容易注意到的。人们通常通过查看降雨量来追踪它。一种简单的测量方法是使用标准化降水指数 （SPI）。

Agricultural drought primarily occurs when soil moisture is insufficient to meet crop evapotranspiration needs, thereby affecting plant growth and crop yields. This type of drought usually emphasizes soil moisture in the crop root zone and whether it is sufficient for crop development.
农业干旱主要发生在土壤水分不足以满足作物蒸散需求时，从而影响植物生长和作物产量。这种类型的干旱通常强调作物根区的土壤水分以及它是否足以促进作物生长。

Hydrological drought occurs when surface water and groundwater resources are insufficient to meet water management needs. It often results as a delayed effect of meteorological drought, manifesting as lower river flows, declining reservoir levels, and inadequate groundwater supplies (Van Loon, 2015). Recently, groundwater drought has been identified as a distinct subtype, emphasizing severe shortages in groundwater reserves and recharge, which can lead to springs, rivers, and wells drying up.
当地表水和地下水资源不足以满足水资源管理需求时，就会发生水文干旱。它通常是气象干旱的延迟效应，表现为河流流量下降、水库水位下降和地下水供应不足（Van Loon，2015 年）。最近，地下水干旱已被确定为一种独特的亚型，强调地下水储量和补给严重短缺，这可能导致泉水、河流和水井干涸。

Socio-economic drought occurs when water shortages begin to affect the supply-demand balance in social or economic sectors such as irrigation, municipal water supply, and energy production. For example, insufficient irrigation water may lead to reduced crop yields, while decreased water availability may trigger power shortages.
当水资源短缺开始影响社会或经济部门（如灌溉、市政供水和能源生产）的供需平衡时，就会发生社会经济干旱。例如，灌溉用水不足可能导致农作物减产，而可用水量减少则可能引发电力短缺。

Each type of drought has its own driving mechanisms and impact pathways, but they often occur together, which increases overall risks. The way drought impacts spread and build up is complex; for example, the overlap of meteorological drought and heatwaves can raise agricultural losses, while multi-year droughts can significantly slow ecosystem recovery (Tijdeman et al., 2021). Research shows that hydrological droughts tend to have more substantial and longer-lasting effects on vegetation than meteorological droughts. Using wavelet coherence analysis and lag correlation coefficients, Shi et al. (2022) found that vegetation in the Huanghuai region responds more slowly but clearly to hydrological droughts, especially in grasslands and farmlands. This highlights the importance of considering the long-term impacts of hydrological drought in ecological risk management and agricultural planning, rather than only focusing on meteorological drought. Land use types and regional climate further influence drought impacts, with managed grasslands and farmlands being more vulnerable to prolonged water shortages. Often, these droughts occur simultaneously, which worsens overall riskwhich increases overall risks.
每种类型的干旱都有自己的驱动机制和影响途径，但它们经常同时发生，这增加了整体风险。干旱影响的传播和积累方式很复杂;例如，气象干旱和热浪的重叠会增加农业损失，而多年干旱会显着减缓生态系统的恢复（Tijdeman 等，2021）。研究表明，与气象干旱相比，水文干旱往往对植被产生更重大和更持久的影响。Shi et al. （2022） 使用小波相干分析和滞后相关系数发现，黄淮地区的植被对水文干旱的反应更慢但更明显，尤其是在草原和农田。这凸显了在生态风险管理和农业规划中考虑水文干旱的长期影响的重要性， 而不仅仅是关注气象干旱。土地利用类型和区域气候进一步影响干旱影响，受管理的草原和农田更容易受到长期缺水的影响。通常，这些干旱同时发生，这加剧了整体风险，从而增加了整体风险。

In summary, drought is not a single event but a series of interrelated processes influenced by multiple factors. Understanding the differences and interactions between different types of drought is crucial for developing effective mitigation, adaptation, and management strategies, particularly in regions heavily reliant on agriculture and with vulnerable ecosystems. Therefore, gaining an understanding of the various types of drought and their combined impacts is essential for enhancing drought resilience in the North China Plain and across China as a whole.
总之，干旱不是一个单一的事件，而是一系列受多种因素影响的相互关联的过程。了解不同类型干旱之间的差异和相互作用对于制定有效的缓解、适应和管理策略至关重要，尤其是在严重依赖农业和生态系统脆弱的地区。因此，了解各种类型的干旱及其综合影响对于增强华北平原和整个中国的抗旱能力至关重要。

2. Literature review
2. 文献综述

2.1 The impact of drought: A study on China’s North China Plain
2.1 干旱的影响：对中国华北平原的研究

The North China Plain is one of China's important agricultural production areas, mainly producing winter wheat and summer corn. The drought caused by climate change has a more direct and significant impact on crop yields. These crops are especially vulnerable to water scarcity during key developmental stages, such as seedling establishment and grain filling. Drought during these critical periods can impede growth, reduce the number of kernels, and decrease grain weight, ultimately leading to lower yields per hectare. Empirical analyses have confirmed that water stress significantly limits agricultural productivity in this region (Song et al.,2022). Liu et al. (2018) applied the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to conduct a time-series analysis, quantifying the relationship between drought and agrarian output. This analysis revealed a strong negative correlation between drought severity and crop yield. Winter wheat demonstrated consistent sensitivity to water stress across various growth stages. Although summer maize was generally less affected, it remained highly vulnerable to short-term extreme droughts, especially during the early sowing phase. These findings emphasize the varying drought sensitivity among crop types and underscore the necessity for crop-specific and season-sensitive adaptation strategies to ensure food security.
华北平原是中国重要的农业生产区之一，主要生产冬小麦和夏玉米。气候变化引起的干旱对农作物产量的影响更直接、更重要。 这些作物在关键发育阶段特别容易受到缺水的影响，例如育苗和灌浆。这些关键时期的干旱会阻碍生长，减少籽粒数量，降低谷物重量，最终导致每公顷产量降低。 实证分析证实，水分压力严重限制了该地区的农业生产力 （Song et al.，2022）。Liu 等人（2018 年）应用标准化降水蒸散指数 （SPEI） 进行时间序列分析，量化干旱与农业产量之间的关系。该分析揭示了干旱严重程度与作物产量之间存在很强的负相关关系。冬小麦在各个生长阶段表现出对水分胁迫的一致敏感性。尽管夏玉米通常受到的影响较小，但它仍然极易受到短期极端干旱的影响，尤其是在播种初期。这些发现强调了不同作物类型对干旱的敏感性不同，并强调了针对作物特定和季节敏感的适应策略以确保粮食安全的必要性。

Besides grain production, fluctuations in agricultural market prices are difficult to measure. Drought acts as a supply-side shock, reducing crop yields and increasing costs, which puts pressure on market prices (Lin, et al.,2013). Using a partial equilibrium model—IAEEE—they performed scenario-based analysis for the North China Plain. They discovered that even during severe droughts, the price increases for key crops, such as wheat and maize, remained below 3.59%, staying within normal market fluctuation ranges typical of non-drought years. These results suggest that China’s agricultural market exhibits specific stabilizing mechanisms that help mitigate the direct impacts of climate extremes. Their simulation included three drought levels—mild, moderate, and severe—based on historical yield loss ratios (ranging from 1.88% to 9.60% for wheat, for example). It revealed that even in the worst-case scenario, the overall price change was modest. This demonstrates that although drought can drive prices higher, actual price changes are moderated by factors such as government interventions, strategic grain reserves, and market adaptation measures. Therefore, any comprehensive assessment of drought’s economic effects must consider both price signals and broader institutional responses.
除了粮食生产外，农产品市场价格的波动也很难衡量。 Drought 充当供给侧冲击，降低作物产量并增加成本，从而给市场价格带来压力 （Lin， et al.，2013）。 他们使用部分均衡模型 （IAEEE） 对华北平原进行了基于情景的分析。他们发现，即使在严重干旱期间，小麦和玉米等关键作物的价格涨幅也保持在 3.59% 以下，保持在非干旱年份典型的正常市场波动范围内 。这些结果表明 ，中国农业市场表现出特定的稳定机制，有助于减轻极端气候的直接影响。他们的模拟包括三个干旱级别——轻度、中度和重度——基于历史产量损失率（ 例如，小麦的产量损失范围从 1.88% 到 9.60% 不等）。它显示，即使在最坏的情况下 ，整体价格变化也是温和的。这表明，尽管干旱可以推高价格，但实际价格变化会受到政府干预、战略粮食储备和市场适应措施等因素的调节。因此，任何对干旱经济影响的全面评估都必须同时考虑价格信号和更广泛的制度性反应。

Furthermore, ongoing groundwater stress increases pressure on rural infrastructure. The demand for deeper wells, high-efficiency irrigation tools, and large-scale water diversion projects creates financial and technical challenges for many underfunded local governments. Without significant investments, the agricultural resilience of these regions remains weakened, raising the economic risk for communities affected by drought. The growing frequency and severity of droughts have increased the need for irrigation and other agricultural infrastructure. However, such investments require substantial funding and long-term commitment, often beyond the financial means of local communities. This results in aging infrastructure and inadequate coverage, which weakens drought resilience (Liu et al., 2024).
此外，持续的地下水压力增加了农村基础设施的压力。对更深的井、高效灌溉工具和大规模引水项目的需求给许多资金不足的地方政府带来了财务和技术挑战。如果不进行大量投资，这些地区的农业韧性仍然会减弱，从而增加受干旱影响的社区的经济风险。干旱的频率和严重程度的增加增加了对灌溉和其他农业基础设施的需求。然而，此类投资需要大量资金和长期承诺，往往超出了当地社区的财政能力。这导致基础设施老化和覆盖面不足 ，从而削弱了抗旱能力（Liu et al.， 2024）。

Droughts threaten agricultural sustainability and rural economic stability, particularly in ecologically sensitive areas such as the North China Plain. There is a clear spatial-temporal connection between drought disasters and decreases in crop production across the North China Plain, especially during ENSO episodes that amplify climatic extremes (Liu et al.,2015). These drought-related losses are not spread evenly but are concentrated in regions with weaker irrigation systems and lower adaptive capacity, highlighting the structural disparities in rural development. In regional development, such disparities worsen economic inequality between drought-prone inland areas and more resilient, well-irrigated regions. As water shortages continue or worsen due to climate change, pressure on agricultural sustainability will only grow. Addressing these issues requires a combination of region-specific adaptation strategies, such as improving irrigation efficiency, expanding drought-resistant crop varieties, and strengthening rural financial mechanisms to help reduce income shocks.
干旱威胁着农业的可持续性和农村经济的稳定， 特别是在华北平原等生态敏感地区 。 这里是干旱灾害与华北平原作物减产之间的明显时空联系 ，尤其是在放大极端气候的 ENSO 事件期间 （Liu et al.，2015）。 这些与干旱相关的损失分布不均，而是集中在灌溉系统较弱和适应能力较低的地区，凸显了农村发展的结构性差异。在区域发展中， 这种差距加剧了易受干旱影响的内陆地区与更具韧性、灌溉良好的地区之间的经济不平等。随着气候变化导致水资源短缺持续或恶化，农业可持续性的压力只会越来越大。解决这些问题需要结合针对特定地区的适应策略，例如提高灌溉效率、扩大抗旱作物品种以及加强农村金融机制以帮助减少收入冲击。

2.2 analysis of drought in China
2.2 中国干旱分析

This section reviews the time-based and regional trends of drought in China, mainly focusing on the North China Plain and anticipated climate changes change scenarios.
本节综述了中国干旱的时间趋势和区域趋势， 主要关注华北平原和预期的气候变化变化情景。

In recent years, scholars have systematically studied how droughts have changed over time and space, their patterns, what might happen in the future, and ways to identify regions at risk. They have used numerous data sources and methods to achieve this. Wang et al. (2023) analyzed provincial-level agricultural drought disaster data in China from 1991 to 2018 using the Mann-Kendall trend test and wavelet analysis. This statistical method does not make any assumptions about the data. It is used to see if a set of data is increasing or decreasing over time. It is widely used in fields like climate and hydrology (Li et al., 2023). The study examined trends in factors such as crop damage, the extent of land affected, the total area lost, and the number of people and animals impacted by water shortages. The results indicate that agricultural drought in China has eased, with notable declines in provinces such as Gansu, Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Hebei. However, water shortages for livestock in Inner Mongolia have worsened, with a Z-value of 2.2629 indicating that some regions still face worsening drought conditions. Additionally, the study uncovered distinct 8-year and 50-year cyclical fluctuations in drought disasters, suggesting a strong natural cycle that could inform medium- to long-term trend forecasts and policy planning. Drought in China has continued to develop.
近年来，学者们系统地研究了干旱如何随时间和空间变化、其模式、 未来可能发生的情况以及识别风险区域的方法。他们使用了大量的数据源和方法来实现这一目标。Wang et al. （2023） 使用 Mann-Kendall 趋势检验和小波分析分析了 1991 年至 2018 年中国省级农业旱灾数据。此统计方法不对数据做出任何假设。它用于查看一组数据是否随时间增加或减少。它广泛用于气候和水文学等领域 （Li et al.， 2023）。该研究考察了农作物受损、受影响土地范围、总面积损失以及受水资源短缺影响的人数和动物数量等因素的趋势。结果表明，中国的农业干旱有所缓解，甘肃、四川、陕西和河北等省份的农业干旱明显下降。然而，内蒙古畜牧业缺水情况恶化，Z 值为 2.2629 表明一些地区仍面临日益恶化的干旱状况。此外，该研究还揭示了干旱灾害中明显的 8 年和 50 年周期性波动，表明存在强大的自然周期，可以为中长期趋势预测和政策规划提供信息。D rought 在中国不断发展。

Regarding future trend predictions, Li et al. (2023) utilized the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to forecast future agricultural drought patterns in China, based on CMIP6 multi-scenario climate models spanning SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5. Their results show that, while drought severity will change little under low-emission scenarios, it will significantly increase under medium-to-high emission scenarios (such as SSP4.5 and SSP5.8.5), especially after 2040. The Huanghua Plain and Northeast China are likely to become high-risk zones in the future. Further analysis reveals that potential evapotranspiration (PET), driven by warming, is the main cause of drought in historical and mid-term scenarios. However, under extremely high-emission scenarios, decreased precipitation (PRE) becomes the dominant factor in drought patterns, as observed in agricultural areas of China using CMIP6 multi-scenario climate models that span SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5. Their results show that, while drought severity will change little under low-emission scenarios, it will significantly increase under medium-to-high emission scenarios (such as SSP4.5 and SSP5.8.5), especially after 2040. The Huanghuai Plain and Northeast China are likely to become high-risk zones in the future. Further analysis reveals that potential evapotranspiration (PET), driven by warming, is the leading cause of drought in historical and mid-term scenarios.
关于未来趋势预测，Li et al. （2023） 基于跨越 SSP1-2.6 至 SSP5-8.5 的 CMIP6 多情景气候模式，使用标准化降水蒸散指数 （SPEI） 来预测中国未来农业干旱格局。他们的结果表明，虽然干旱严重程度在低排放情景下变化不大，但在中高排放情景（ 如 SSP4.5 和 SSP5.8.5）下将显著增加，尤其是在 2040 年之后。黄骅平原和东北地区未来很可能成为高风险区。进一步分析表明，由变暖驱动的潜在蒸散 （PET） 是历史和中期情景中干旱的主要原因。然而，在极高排放情景下，降水减少 （PRE） 成为干旱模式的主导因素，正如使用跨越 SSP1-2.6 至 SSP5-8.5 的 CMIP6 多情景气候模式在中国农业地区观察到的那样。他们的结果表明，虽然干旱严重程度在低排放情景下变化不大，但在中高排放情景（如 SSP4.5 和 SSP5.8.5）下将显著增加，尤其是在 2040 年之后。黄淮平原和东北地区未来很可能成为高风险区。进一步分析表明，由变暖驱动的潜在蒸散 （PET） 是历史和中期情景中干旱的主要原因。

The main factors driving drought in China vary under different climate scenarios. In the low-emission RCP=2.6 scenario, both PET and precipitation affect drought conditions. Under the RCP=4.5 scenario, warming-related evaporation (PET) becomes the primary cause. In the high-emission scenario, decreased precipitation (PRE) becomes the key factor, leading to severe water shortages in some regions. These insights provide a theoretical basis for understanding regional differences in drought mechanisms and for developing indicator-based prediction models. They also offer valuable references for agricultural adaptation strategies and water resource management policies. Future research has also explored the relationship between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which relates to precipitation, and agricultural yields to assess drought impacts on Chinese agriculture and to analyze future drought trends. To improve how drought is tracked and managed on a regional scale, Li et al. (2015) used SPI-03 data from 535 weather stations between 1961 and 2012. They applied Ward’s method and k-means clustering to group regions with similar drought patterns. Their work identified eight key drought zones: Southeast (SE), Middle and Lower Yangtze River (YZ), Yellow River–Huaihai River–Hai River (YR–HHR), North China (NC), Southern Northeast (SNE), Northern Northeast (NNE), Southwest Plateau (SW–TP), and Central Northwest (WNC). The results matched well with SPI trends in each region and were not limited by traditional administrative borders. This helped build a common framework for future drought research and regional planning. Later studies will continue to use SPI-03 data to explore how drought in North China fits into broader regional drought patterns and management efforts.
导致中国干旱的主要因素在不同的气候情景下有所不同。在低排放 RCP=2.6 情景中，PET 和降水都会影响干旱条件。在 RCP=4.5 情景下，与变暖相关的蒸发 （PET） 成为主要原因。 在高排放情景下，降水减少 （PRE） 成为关键因素，导致一些地区严重缺水。这些见解为理解干旱机制的区域差异和开发基于指标的预测模型提供了理论基础。它们还为农业适应策略和水资源管理政策提供了有价值的参考。未来的研究还探讨了与降水相关的标准化降水指数 （SPI） 与农业产量之间的关系，以评估干旱对中国农业的影响并分析未来的干旱趋势。为了改进在区域范围内跟踪和管理干旱的方式，Li 等人（2015 年）使用了 1961 年至 2012 年间来自 535 个气象站的 SPI-03 数据。他们应用 Ward 方法和 k-means 聚类对具有相似干旱模式的地区进行分组。他们的工作确定了八个关键干旱带：东南 （SE）、长江中下游 （YZ）、黄河-淮海河-海河 （YR-HHR）、华北 （NC）、东北南部 （SNE）、东北北部 （NNE）、西南高原 （SW-TP） 和中西北 （WNC）。结果与每个地区的 SPI 趋势非常吻合，并且不受传统行政边界的限制。这有助于为未来的干旱研究和区域规划建立一个共同的框架。 后续研究将继续使用 SPI-03 数据来探索华北地区的干旱如何适应更广泛的区域干旱模式和管理工作。

2.3 China’s Institutional Framework for Drought Management: Structure and Functioning
2.3 中国干旱管理制度框架：结构与功能

This section examines China's current approach to managing droughts, evaluates the effectiveness of various farming strategies, and discusses the development of systems to warn people about upcoming droughts. By using multiple analysis methods, it highlights the strengths and weaknesses of China's drought response mechanisms.
本节研究了中国目前的干旱管理方法，评估了各种农业策略的有效性，并讨论了警告人们即将到来的干旱的系统的发展。本文采用多种分析方法，突出了中国干旱响应机制的优势和劣势。

2.3.1 Characteristics of China's Drought Management Framework
2.3.1 中国干旱管理框架的特点

In recent years, China has been developing a plan to address droughts. Pradhan et al., (2017) explains that China's drought policy follows a standard process. This process consists of four stages. The first stage is identifying the problem. The second stage is designing the policy. The third stage is testing the policy in a small area. The fourth stage is integrating the policy into the country's official regulations. The first stage, problem identification, relies on local feedback and scientific research, which generates a list of potential issues. The second stage, policy design, is led by the central or provincial government and includes technical advice from researchers and expert assessments. However, the administrative approach to policy formulation remains unchanged. The third stage, pilot testing, involves testing the policy on a small scale to determine if it is feasible and effective. This step is crucial because it occurs between the initial idea stage and the official adoption. The final stage is making the policy official. The policy is incorporated into the government's implementation system, making it legally enforceable. Once officially adopted, the policy is usually executed through a government-led, project-based, task-assignment process.
近年来，中国一直在制定应对干旱的计划。Pradhan 等人（2017 年）解释说，中国的干旱政策遵循标准流程。此过程包括四个阶段。第一阶段是确定问题。第二阶段是设计策略。第三阶段是在小范围内测试策略。第四阶段是将政策纳入该国的官方法规。第一阶段是问题识别，依赖于当地反馈和科学研究，从而生成潜在问题列表。第二阶段是政策设计，由中央或省级政府主导，包括研究人员的技术咨询和专家评估。然而，政策制定的行政方法保持不变。第三阶段，试点测试，涉及小规模测试政策，以确定其是否可行和有效。这一步至关重要，因为它发生在初始构思阶段和正式采用之间。最后阶段是使政策正式化。该政策被纳入政府的实施系统，使其具有法律效力。一旦正式采用，该政策通常通过政府主导、基于项目的任务分配流程来执行。

The central government establishes overall objectives and budget allocations, which are then broken down into administrative directives for local governments at all levels. Local governments then formulate specific implementation plans and project arrangements. The allocation of drought management project funds involves a review process for applications and the execution of disbursements. Project implementation relies on the mobilization and execution capabilities of local water conservancy departments and village-level organizations. As the central government promotes agricultural modernization and ecological conservation, China has gradually established a comprehensive drought management system. Overall, the core structure of China's drought policy system is a combination of a highly centralised policy-making mechanism and an administratively driven policy implementation process. The system operates on two levels: top-down policy decision-making and bottom-up feedback mechanisms (Pradhan et al., 2017).
中央政府制定总体目标和预算分配，然后将其分解为各级地方政府的行政指令。然后，地方政府制定具体的实施计划和项目安排。干旱管理项目资金的分配涉及申请的审查过程和支付的执行。项目实施依赖于当地水利部门和村级组织的动员和执行能力。随着中央政府推进农业现代化和生态保护，中国逐步建立了全面的干旱管理体系。 总体而言，中国抗旱政策体系的核心结构是高度集中的政策制定机制和行政驱动的政策实施过程的结合。该系统在两个层面上运作：自上而下的政策决策和自下而上的反馈机制（Pradhan et al.，2017）。

Akiyama et al. (2018) conducted a case study in Zhangye City, Gansu Province, to explore the institutional logic behind China’s government-led agriculture governance. The research found that decisions on land use, land consolidation and changes in crops are made by local governments in the name of agrarian modernization and ecological conservation, based on directives from high-level policy documents. They are transmitted top-down from the central administration to their administrative branch offices and even to the villages, which play a passive role in implementation. It is said that their activities are implemented with responsiveness but limited participation. Applying this framework to drought management, it can be argued that China’s responses to drought can be described as dependent on a centrally planned system, performance-driven and with the lack of involvement of local agricultural stakeholders.
Akiyama et al. （2018） 在甘肃省张掖市进行了一项案例研究，以探索中国政府主导的农业治理背后的制度逻辑。研究发现，地方政府以土地现代化和生态保护的名义，根据高级别政策文件的指示，做出关于土地使用、土地整理和作物变化的决定。它们从中央管理部门自上而下地传递到其行政分支机构，甚至到村庄，这些村庄在实施中起着被动的作用。据说他们的活动是以响应性实施的，但参与度有限。将这一框架应用于干旱管理，可以说中国对干旱的应对可以说是依赖于中央计划的系统，以绩效为导向，并且缺乏当地农业利益相关者的参与。

Moreover, Li et al. (2017) provide an overview of constraints built into China’s current drought management framework. Using the North China Plain as a test bed, they analyze drought response projects and practices from the perspective of national policy directives that often limit local governments’ flexibility to address specific crop management or food security challenges. Despite creating well-intentioned policies and plans at the national level, this leadership and planning to fight drought often ignore what can be called grassroots realities, such as farmers’ decision-making needs or adaptations. This is then seen as low farmer participation, poor policy responsiveness, or inefficient resource allocation issues related to these drought management strategies.
此外，Li et al. （2017） 概述了中国当前干旱管理框架中的制约因素。他们以华北平原为试验台，从国家政策指令的角度分析干旱应对项目和实践，这些政策指令通常会限制地方政府应对特定作物管理或粮食安全挑战的灵活性。尽管在国家层面制定了用心良苦的政策和计划，但这种抗旱的领导和规划往往忽视了所谓的基层现实，例如农民的决策需求或适应。这被视为与这些干旱管理策略相关的农民参与度低、政策响应能力差或资源分配效率低下的问题。

2.3.2 Farmer-Centered Drought Adaptation and Institutional Barriers in Management
2.3.2 以农民为中心的干旱适应和管理中的制度障碍

Small-scale farmers constitute an important segment of the country’s agriculture workforce, mostly subsisting on small and dispersed parcels of land without advanced technical or financial means for dealing with climate-induced stresses such as drought. National leaders have long encouraged small-scale farmer cooperatives as a mechanism to group individuals into larger associations capable of negotiating better prices with seed companies or market agents while being able to share common technologies useful for mitigating drought-induced yield shortfalls
小农户构成了该国农业劳动力的重要组成部分，他们大多生活在小块分散的土地上，没有先进的技术或财务手段来应对气候引起的压力，如干旱。长期以来，国家领导人一直鼓励小规模农民合作社作为一种机制 ，将个人分组到更大的协会中，这些协会能够与种子公司或市场代理协商更好的价格，同时能够分享有助于缓解干旱引起的产量短缺的共同技术

Regarding institutional issues in cooperative governance in China, Bin. L et al. (2024) conduct a detailed examination of cooperative distribution in Hunan province and find that while establishing cooperatives is relatively easy during policy-driven program years, few cooperatives operate beyond their initial formation, and few members show interest in their work. Critics often note minimal participation in cooperative activities; figurehead leadership makes decisions on their behalf; membership does not foster a strong sense of ownership; free-riding is widespread; many cooperatives are created due to top-down pressure; most institutions lack internal communication and trust for mutual cooperation; extensive coordination among members is often challenging; non-farming members make up more than 25%, among other issues. As cooperatives grow larger and extend beyond village boundaries into multiple economic sectors requiring more resources, they tend to face increased costs related to monitoring and controlling free-riding behavior. These findings highlight that the root cause of vulnerability associated with agricultural operations or external shocks like drought is primarily institutional rather than technological or resource-related.
关于中国合作治理的制度问题 ，Bin.L 等人（2024 年）对湖南省的合作社分布进行了详细研究，发现虽然在政策驱动的项目年建立合作社相对容易，但很少有合作社在最初成立后运作，也很少有成员对他们的工作表现出兴趣。批评者经常指出，对合作活动的参与很少;傀儡领导层代表他们做出决定;成员身份不会培养强烈的主人翁意识;搭便车很普遍;许多合作社是由于自上而下的压力而创建的;大多数机构缺乏内部沟通和相互合作的信任;成员之间的广泛协调通常具有挑战性;非农业成员占 25% 以上，其中包括其他问题。随着合作社的规模扩大并扩展到村庄边界之外，进入需要更多资源的多个经济部门，它们往往面临与监控和控制搭便车行为相关的成本增加。这些发现强调，与农业经营或干旱等外部冲击相关的脆弱性的根本原因主要是制度性的，而不是与技术或资源相关的。

Pradhan et al. (2017) assessed nine key drought-mitigation strategies from the perspective of rural households at the village level and found a significant gap between top-down policy views and the expectations of farming households living in areas prone to recurrent natural droughts, influenced by household characteristics. In summary, and to close this discussion, it has long been suspected that there is a substantial mismatch or disconnect between what policies are implemented by local governments or other actors overseeing climate change adaptation and the actual needs within communities living in agricultural areas vulnerable to recurring natural droughts.
Pradhan 等人。（2017） 从村级农村家庭的角度评估了九种关键的抗旱策略，发现自上而下的政策观点与生活在受家庭特征影响容易反复发生自然干旱地区的农户的期望之间存在显着差距。总而言之，为了结束这次讨论，长期以来，人们一直怀疑地方政府或其他监督气候变化适应行为的行为者实施的政策与生活在易受自然干旱影响的农业地区社区的实际需求之间存在着实质性的不匹配或脱节 。

Among the measures evaluated, income diversification and resource accessibility—particularly access to water resources and transportation infrastructure—were identified as the most effective strategies. Conversely, community participation mechanisms and government-funded programs were questioned, especially in villages where logistical challenges hindered project implementation. This suggests that infrastructure accessibility is not just a supporting factor but an essential prerequisite for the success of drought policies.
在评估的措施中 ，收入多样化和资源可及性（特别是获得水资源和交通基础设施）被认为是最有效的策略。相反，社区参与机制和政府资助的项目受到质疑，尤其是在后勤挑战阻碍项目实施的村庄。这表明基础设施的可达性不仅是一个支持因素，而且是抗旱政策取得成功的必要先决条件 。

Besides institutional aspects, structural problems such as land fragmentation also impair the ability of smallholder farmers to adapt to agricultural drought. For example, a study conducted in Jiangsu Province in China (Lu et al., 2019) revealed that due to land fragmentation, the marginal productivity of agricultural labor is very low. Consequently, rural workers, including young people, migrate to urban areas in search of non-agricultural employment. Such labor migration of farmers is interlinked with China's accelerated urbanization as well as continued urban-rural income disparities.
除了制度方面，土地碎片化等结构性问题也损害了小农户适应农业干旱的能力。例如，在中国江苏省进行的一项研究 （Lu et al.， 2019） 显示，由于土地碎片化，农业劳动力的边际生产率非常低。因此，包括年轻人在内的农村工人迁移到城市地区寻找非农业工作。农民的这种劳动力迁移与中国加速的城市化以及持续的城乡收入差距密切相关。

In the long term, addressing the challenges of agricultural drought must depend on adaptive policies rather than temporary measures that build capabilities from a systems-level approach. The response to drought in arid regions isn’t limited to disaster relief and requires investment in systems-level policy, technical, and financial support (Gu et al., 2017). Comparative studies on drought alleviation policies in foreign arid areas show that China should shift toward adaptive policies and develop autonomous, proactive strategies that are not just reactive or engineering-focused. They suggest four key elements for adaptive drought policy: (1) promoting efficient irrigation technologies like drip irrigation and sprinkler systems; (2) providing climate-smart agriculture training for farmers; (3) investing in small water systems such as reservoirs; and (4) establishing financial protections through weather index-based agricultural insurance and credit programs against crop loss. Combining these elements can bridge the gap between policies and the practical realities of farmers’ communities, fostering a community-driven approach and autonomous implementation.
从长远来看，应对农业干旱的挑战必须依赖于适应性政策，而不是从系统级方法构建能力的临时措施。干旱地区对干旱的应对不仅限于救灾，还需要对系统级政策、技术和财政支持进行投资（Gu et al.， 2017）。对国外干旱地区抗旱政策的比较研究表明，中国应该转向适应性政策，并制定自主、主动的战略，而不仅仅是被动或以工程为重点。他们提出了适应性干旱政策的四个关键要素：（1） 推广滴灌和喷水灭火系统等高效灌溉技术;（2） 为农民提供气候智能型农业培训;（3） 投资水库等小型供水系统;（4） 通过基于天气指数的农业保险和信贷计划建立财务保护，防止作物损失。将这些要素结合起来可以弥合政策与农民社区的实际现实之间的差距，促进社区驱动的方法和自主实施。

It is clear from the above analysis that China must shift from focusing solely on water resources management to a broader development framework that includes employment, transportation, and financial aid. High-ranking officials often see government projects or engineering efforts that are well-funded and widely approved as successful. However, farmers still worry about the availability and accessibility of resources.
从上述分析可以清楚地看出，中国必须从单纯关注水资源管理转向更广泛的发展框架，包括就业、交通和财政援助。高级官员通常认为资金充足且得到广泛认可的政府项目或工程工作是成功的。然而，农民仍然担心资源的可用性和可及性。

Unlike China's approach, the U.S. model mainly emphasizes public risk protection systems and decentralized service delivery. This U.S. model combines engineering methods with insurance support systems based on risk, along with community-level decentralized service facilities. In this paper, we analyze the U.S. integrated drought management system.
与中国的做法不同，美国模式主要强调公共风险保护系统和分散的服务交付。这种美国模式将工程方法与基于风险的保险支持系统以及社区级的分散式服务设施相结合。在本文中，我们分析了美国的综合干旱管理系统。

2.3.3 China’s Approach to Drought Early Warning and Risk Monitoring
2.3.3 中国的干旱预警和风险监测方法

In recent years, there has been significant progress in integrating meteorology and remote sensing applications, which have had a substantial impact on monitoring and managing agricultural drought conditions in China. Previously, China’s drought monitoring system relied almost entirely on meteorological indices that were based on precipitation, but recent changing trends now include multifactor indices such as temperature-related factors, evaporation, transpiration rates, soil moisture, and crop condition indices like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Crop Moisture Deficiency Index have been used along with those traditional ones for extensive coverage over different climatic regions. Liu et al., (2016). Additionally， Remote sensing technology has also significantly enhanced the level of drought monitoring in China. Remote sensing technology, which monitors crop growth through vegetation indices such as NDVI and EVI and assesses surface temperature and soil moisture conditions through thermal infrared remote sensing, has become a necessary condition for dynamic agricultural drought monitoring (West et al., 2019).
近年来， 在整合气象和遥感应用方面取得了重大进展，这对中国农业干旱状况的监测和管理产生了重大影响。以前，中国的干旱监测系统几乎完全依赖于基于降水的气象指数，但最近变化的趋势现在包括多因素指数，如温度相关因素、蒸发、蒸腾速率、土壤湿度，以及标准化降水指数 （SPI） 和帕尔默干旱严重指数 （PDSI） 等作物状况指数 nd 作物水分缺乏指数已与传统指数一起使用，以广泛覆盖不同的气候区域。Liu et al.， （2016）. 此外 ， 遥感技术也显著提高了中国的干旱监测水平。遥感技术通过 NDVI 和 EVI 等植被指数监测作物生长，并通过热红外遥感评估地表温度和土壤水分状况，已成为农业动态干旱监测的必要条件（West et al.， 2019）。

However, as pointed out by Tijdeman et al. (2021), effective drought management requires not only single variables or regional average indicators, but also the integration of multi-variable, multi-scale information. For example, in some regions, groundwater responds slowly to drought, leading to prolonged drought propagation and recovery cycles. Relying solely on surface hydrological or meteorological data may underestimate actual risks. Therefore, early warning systems urgently need to integrate multi-source parameters such as meteorological, hydrological, and groundwater data to achieve more accurate and dynamic drought identification (Tijdeman et al., 2021).
然而，正如 Tijdeman 等人（2021 年）所指出的那样，有效的干旱管理不仅需要单个变量或区域平均指标，还需要整合多变量、多尺度的信息。例如，在一些地区，地下水对干旱的反应很慢，导致干旱的传播和恢复周期延长。仅依赖地表水文或气象数据可能会低估实际风险。因此，预警系统迫切需要整合气象、水文和地下水数据等多源参数，以实现更准确和动态的干旱识别（Tijdeman et al.， 2021）。

Additionally, human activities such as mining, deforestation, and improper water resource management worsen drought risks. Therefore, China's drought management policies should further enhance natural resource protection and minimize human interference (Ndayiragije & Li, 2022). Despite the rising frequency of extreme drought events, drought receives less policy attention than disasters like floods and hurricanes. Current responses are mainly reactive, and proactive risk management and multi-sector coordination mechanisms are still underdeveloped (Pulwarty & Sivakumar, 2014).
此外，采矿、森林砍伐和水资源管理不当等人类活动会加剧干旱风险。因此，中国的干旱管理政策应进一步加强自然资源保护，减少人为干预（Ndayiragije & Li，2022）。尽管极端干旱事件的频率不断上升，但与洪水和飓风等灾害相比，干旱受到的政策关注较少。 当前的反应主要是被动的，积极的风险管理和多部门协调机制仍然不发达（Pulwarty & Sivakumar，2014）。

Regional disparity remains a challenge in China's drought control policies. Li et al. (2017) conducted a study that found increasing information transparency can significantly enhance the governance performance of local governments, particularly in fiscal expenditure rates, budget implementation standards, and resource allocation efficiency. A transparent information environment can motivate officials to take more initiative, thus reducing bureaucratic inertia and formalism. In the economically developed eastern regions, where institutional frameworks are stronger and technological infrastructure is more advanced, performance improvements are more pronounced. Conversely, the central and western regions continue to face institutional barriers, and their information technology infrastructure is comparatively weaker.
地区差异仍然是中国抗旱政策的一个挑战。Li et al. （2017） 进行了一项研究，发现提高信息透明度可以显著提高地方政府的治理绩效，特别是在财政支出率、预算执行标准和资源配置效率方面。透明的信息环境可以激励官员采取更多主动性，从而减少官僚主义的惰性和形式主义。在经济发达的东部地区，制度框架更强大，技术基础设施更先进，绩效改进更为明显。反之，中西部地区继续面临体制性障碍，信息化基础设施相对薄弱 。

In comparison, the United States has more extensive experience in developing drought monitoring and management systems. For example, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) collaborates with various federal, state, and local agencies to use standardized precipitation indices (SPI) and other metrics to scientifically identify and track the start, progression, and severity of droughts (Wilhite et al., 2000). The NDMC provides the public and policymakers with open access to drought data and visualization tools through an online platform, significantly increasing societal awareness of drought risks. Additionally, the NDMC works closely with departments such as the Western Drought Coordinating Committee (WDCC) to promote research and implement drought warning systems and prediction methods. After the severe drought in the western United States in 1996, it established cross-departmental cooperation and emergency response mechanisms, offerh various federal, state, and local agencies to use standardized precipitation indices (SPI) and other metrics to scientifically identify and track the start, progression, and severity of droughts (Wilhite et al., 2000). The NDMC provides the public and policymakers with open access to drought data and visualization tools through an online platform, significantly increasing societal awareness of drought risks(Wilhite et al., 2000). In future, China could learn from the United States' experience to improve its drought information system further, strengthen risk management and policy coordination, and enhance its overall capacity to respond to extreme drought events.
相比之下，美国在开发干旱监测和管理系统方面拥有更丰富的经验。例如，国家干旱减灾中心 （NDMC） 与各种联邦、州和地方机构合作，使用标准化降水指数 （SPI） 和其他指标来科学地识别和跟踪干旱的开始、进展和严重程度（Wilhite 等人，2000 年）。NDMC 通过在线平台为公众和政策制定者提供对干旱数据和可视化工具的开放访问，显着提高了社会对干旱风险的认识。此外，NDMC 还与西部干旱协调委员会 （WDCC） 等部门密切合作，以促进研究并实施干旱预警系统和预测方法。1996 年美国西部发生严重干旱后，它建立了跨部门合作和应急响应机制，提供各种联邦、州和地方机构使用标准化降水指数 （SPI） 和其他指标来科学识别和跟踪干旱的开始、进展和严重程度（Wilhite 等人，2000 年）。NDMC 通过在线平台为公众和政策制定者提供了对干旱数据和可视化工具的开放访问，大大提高了社会对干旱风险的认识（Wilhite 等人，2000 年）。未来，中国可以借鉴美国的经验，进一步完善其干旱信息系统，加强风险管理和政策协调，并提高其应对极端干旱事件的整体能力。

3.Methodology
3.方法论

3.1 Data collection and analysis
3.1 数据收集与分析

To investigate drought variability and its climatic drivers, this study utilized two high-resolution and widely recognized gridded datasets:
为了研究干旱变异性及其气候驱动因素，本研究利用了两个高分辨率且广受认可的网格化数据集：

Precipitation Data (CHIRPS): The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) is a quasi-global precipitation dataset developed by the Climate Hazards Group at the University of California, Santa Barbara. It blends satellite imagery with in-situ station data, providing daily precipitation estimates from 1981 to the present with a spatial resolution of approximately 0.05° (~5 km). CHIRPS data are particularly suitable for drought monitoring, hydrological modeling, and agricultural drought assessment.
降水数据 （CHIRPS）：气候灾害组红外降水与站点数据 （CHIRPS） 是由加州大学圣塔芭芭拉分校气候灾害小组开发的准全球降水数据集。它将卫星图像与原位站数据混合在一起，提供从 1981 年至今的每日降水估计值，空间分辨率约为 0.05° （~5 km）。CHIRPS 数据特别适用于干旱监测、水文建模和农业干旱评估。

The potential evaporation data TerraClimate and data from other sources were processed and analyzed using Google Earth Engine (GEE). Select the monthly values of precipitation (P) and PET for the target area and period. Then, using these values, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were calculated, respectively, according to the methods of McKee et al. (1993) and Vicente-Serrano et al. (2010). After calculating SPI and SPEI values based on the original mathematical formulations (see Section 3.2 and 3.3), we performed further statistical analysis in Python, including linear regression modeling to explore trends and relationships between drought indices and climatic variables.
使用 Google Earth Engine （GEE） 处理和分析潜在蒸发数据 TerraClimate 和其他来源的数据。选择目标区域和周期的降水量 （P） 和 PET 的每月值。然后，使用这些值， 根据 McKee 等人（1993 年）和 Vicente-Serrano 等人（2010 年）的方法 ，分别计算了标准化降水指数 （SPI） 和标准化降水蒸散指数 （SPEI）。 在根据原始数学公式计算 SPI 和 SPEI 值（参见第 3.2 节和第 3.3 节）后，我们在 Python 中进行了进一步的统计分析，包括线性回归建模，以探索干旱指数和气候变量之间的趋势和关系。

This study incorporated agricultural and socioeconomic indicators in order to gain a better understanding of the impact of droughts and the corresponding response measures in different periods. These data were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China's official platform via the NationData platform, which provides long-term historical statistical data at national and provincial levels.
本研究结合了农业和社会经济指标，以便更好地了解干旱的影响以及不同时期的相应应对措施。这些数据是通过 NationData 平台从中国国家统计局 （NBS） 的官方平台获取的，该平台提供国家和省级的长期历史统计数据。

Specifically, the following datasets cover the period from 1980 to 2024 (with some data series traceable back to 2020):
具体来说，以下数据集涵盖了 1980 年至 2024 年期间（其中一些数据序列可追溯到 2020 年）：

Disaster area data: Annual total disaster-affected area and disaster area records caused by natural disasters (including droughts).
灾区数据：年度受灾面积总数和自然灾害（包括干旱）造成的灾区记录。

Agricultural production data: Annual total grain production, as well as detailed production figures for major crops such as cereals, tuber crops (e.g. sweet potatoes), oilseeds and cotton.
农业生产数据：年度粮食总产量，以及谷物、块茎作物（如甘薯）、油籽和棉花等主要作物的详细产量数据。

Socio-economic indicators: Number of rural households and total rural population, reflecting demographic and structural changes in agricultural communities.
社会经济指标：农村家庭数量和农村总人口，反映农业社区的人口和结构变化。

These datasets are used to assess the long-term impact of drought on food security and rural livelihoods, and to evaluate regional vulnerability and adaptive capacity. All data has been downloaded, pre-processed and standardised to ensure temporal consistency, and has been used to conduct correlation and trend analyses with climate indicators (SPI, SPEI, SPF and SPH).
这些数据集用于评估干旱对粮食安全和农村生计的长期影响，并评估区域脆弱性和适应能力。所有数据均已下载、预处理和标准化，以确保时间一致性，并已用于与气候指标（SPI、SPEI、SPF 和 SPH）进行相关性和趋势分析。

3.2 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
3.2 标准化降水指数 （SPI）

The SPI was computed following the procedure proposed by McKee et al. (1993), which is based solely on monthly precipitation records. The key steps are as follows:
SPI 是按照 McKee 等人 （1993） 提出的程序计算的，该程序仅基于月降水记录。关键步骤如下：

Accumulation: For each month t, a 12-month sliding sum of monthly precipitation values was calculated to obtain cumulative precipitation:
累积：对于每个月份 t，计算 12 个月的月降水量滑动总和以获得累积降水量：

Probability distribution fitting: The series of non-zero P_sum,t values were fitted to a Gamma distribution:
概率分布拟合：将一系列非零 P_sum，t 值拟合到 Gamma 分布：

x>0

CDF computation: The cumulative distribution function (CDF) was computed for each P_sum,t
CDF 计算：为每个 P _和，t 计算累积分布函数 （CDF）:

Normalization: The CDF values were then transformed into standard normal scores using the inverse standard normal distribution function:
归一化：然后使用逆标准正态分布函数将 CDF 值转换为标准正态分数：

${''SPI''}_{\mathrm{}}''=''{''\varphi ''}^{\mathrm{}}\left[''G(''{''P''}_{\mathrm{}}'')''\right]$

The SPI values provide a standardized measure of precipitation anomalies, with negative values indicating drier-than-average conditions.
SPI 值提供了降水异常的标准化测量方法，负值表示比平均水平更干燥。

3.3 tandardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
3.3 标准降水蒸散指数 （SPEI）

To incorporate the effects of both precipitation and atmospheric water demand, the SPEI was calculated using the method of Vicente-Serrano et al. (2010). This index is based on climatic water balance (i.e., precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration, PET). The steps are:
为了考虑降水和大气需水量的影响，使用 Vicente-Serrano 等人（2010 年）的方法计算了 SPEI。该指数基于气候水平衡（即降水减去潜在蒸散量，PET）。步骤如下：

Water balance accumulation: The 12-month cumulative climatic water deficit was calculated:
水平衡累积：计算 12 个月的累积气候缺水：

${''D''}_{\mathrm{}}''=''\sum _{}^{}''(''{''P''}_{\mathrm{}}''-''{''PET''}_{\mathrm{}}'')''$

Probability distribution fitting: The D_sum,t values were fitted to a Log-Logistic distribution
概率分布拟合：将 D_sum，t 值拟合到 Logistic-Logistic 分布

$''f''\left(''x''\right)''=''\frac{''c''}{''\beta ''}{''(''\frac{''x-\xi ''}{''\beta ''}'')''}^{\mathrm{}}{\left[''1+''{''(''\frac{''x-\xi ''}{''\beta ''}'')''}^{\mathrm{}}\right]}^{\mathrm{}}''x>\xi ''$

CDF computation: The cumulative distribution function of the Log-Logistic distribution was then used to obtain:
CDF 计算：然后使用 Logistic-Logistic 分布的累积分布函数来获得：

$''F''\left({''D''}_{\mathrm{}}\right)''=''{\left[''1+(''{\frac{{''D''}_{\mathrm{}}}{''\beta ''}'')''}^{\mathrm{}}\right]}^{\mathrm{}}$

Normalization: SPEI values were derived by converting the CDF values to standard normal scores:
归一化：通过将 CDF 值转换为标准正常分数来得出 SPEI 值：

SPEI reflects both precipitation and evapotranspiration influences and is thus more sensitive to temperature-driven changes in drought conditions.
SPEI 反映了降水和蒸散的影响，因此对干旱条件下温度驱动的变化更敏感。

3.4Policy Analysis
3.4 政策分析

This study systematically reviews and compares the main practices of China and the United States in their drought monitoring and management policy systems. The specific methods include the following aspects:
本研究系统回顾和比较了中美两国在干旱监测和管理政策体系中的主要做法。具体方法包括以下几个方面：

3.4.1. Literature Review and Data Collection
3.4.1. 文献综述和数据收集

First, by searching mainstream academic databases (Web of Science, CNKI, etc.) and websites of governments and authoritative institutions in various countries, we systematically collected policy regulations, official reports, and typical cases related to drought monitoring, early warning, assessment, and emergency management in China and the United States over the past decade. The focus was on policy evolution, technological applications, and institutional innovations over the past ten years.
首先，通过检索主流学术数据库（Web of Science、CNKI 等）以及各国政府和权威机构的网站，系统收集了过去十年中美两国与干旱监测、预警、评估和应急管理相关的政策法规、官方报告和典型案例 。重点是过去十年的政策演变、技术应用和制度创新。

3.4.2. Comparison Dimension Setting
3.4.2. 比较维度设置

Based on domestic and international literature and actual management needs, the following comparison dimensions are established:
根据国内外文献和实际管理需求，建立以下比较维度：

Monitoring technology pathways (e.g., remote sensing, ground-based observations, numerical modeling, etc.)
监测技术途径（例如，遥感、地面观测、数值建模等）

Monitoring and early warning indicator systems (e.g., application of indicators such as SPI, PDSI, NDVI, etc.), information system construction, and data sharing mechanisms; government department collaboration and organizational structures; risk warning and emergency response processes; policy support and public participation. Through these dimensions, the similarities and differences between the two countries are systematically analyzed in drought monitoring and management, along with their respective advantages.
监测预警指标体系（如 SPI、PDSI、NDVI 等指标的应用）、信息体系建设、数据共享机制;政府部门协作和组织结构;风险警告和应急响应流程;政策支持和公众参与。通过这些维度，系统分析了两国在干旱监测和管理方面的异同以及各自的优势。

3.4.3. Case Study Analysis
3.4.3. 案例研究分析

Select representative monitoring systems and management practices for case analysis, such as China's multi-departmental collaborative agricultural drought monitoring and early warning system, the National Drought Mitigation Centre (NDMC) and the Western Drought Coordination Mechanism in the United States (Wilhite et al., 2000; Hao et al., 2017), and analyse their operational processes, performance outcomes, and areas for improvement.
选择具有代表性的监测系统和管理实践进行案例分析，例如中国的多部门协作农业干旱监测和预警系统、国家抗旱减灾中心 （NDMC） 和美国的西部抗旱协调机制（Wilhite et al.， 2000;Hao et al.， 2017），并分析他们的运营流程、绩效结果和需要改进的领域。

3.4.4. Qualitative Induction and Comparison
3.4.4. 定性归纳和比较

Synthesise policy documents, literature, and case analysis results to identify the main similarities and differences between China and the United States from the perspectives of institutional systems, technological integration, risk management, and policy coordination. Combine these findings with international research by Tijdeman et al. (2021) and Pulwarty & Sivakumar (2014) to propose a theoretical framework for comparison and evaluation, aiming to provide insights for enhancing China's drought disaster management capabilities.
综合政策文件、文献和案例分析结果，从制度体系、技术整合、风险管理和政策协调等角度确定中美的主要异同。将这些发现与 Tijdeman 等人（2021 年）和 Pulwarty&Sivakumar（2014 年）的国际研究相结合，提出了一个比较和评估的理论框架，旨在为提高中国的干旱灾害管理能力提供见解。

4. Result
4. 结果

Table 1 shows the precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and deficit data obtained from TerraClimate for the period from 1980 to 2024. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were calculated using the method described in Section 3. These drought indices were then used to evaluate the correlation between climatic drought conditions in Hebei Province and relevant agricultural indicators.
表 1 显示了 1980 年至 2024 年期间从 TerraClimate 获得的降水、潜在蒸散 （PET） 和亏空数据 。标准化降水指数 （SPI） 和标准化降水蒸散指数 （SPEI） 使用第 3 节中描述的方法计算。然后，利用这些干旱指数评价河北省气候干旱条件与相关农业指标之间的相关性。

Figure 1 uses linear analysis to compare the relationships between drought indices (SPI and SPEI) and crop yields, as well as the impacts of agricultural drought.
图 1 使用线性分析来比较干旱指数（SPI 和 SPEI）与作物产量之间的关系，以及农业干旱的影响。

Figure 1A illustrates the linear regression relationship between annual SPI and total grain yield from 1980 to 2024. A moderate, statistically significant positive correlation (r = 0.66, p < 0.001, R² = 0.439) was observed, indicating that higher SPI values correspond to higher grain yields. Figure 1B, in contrast, shows the regression relationship between SPEI and crop yield, indicating a weaker correlation (R² = 0.0381). Therefore, in this context, SPI appears to be a more sensitive and reliable indicator of the relationship between the climate-hydrological balance and agricultural yield in Hebei Province than SPEI. Figure 1C illustrates the interannual variability of drought-affected and drought disaster areas in Hebei Province from 1980 to 2020. These changes correlate with SPI values, reflecting the intensity and frequency of drought conditions. Significant peaks in drought-affected and drought-disaster areas were observed from 1998 to 2000, corresponding to the lowest SPI values in the previous chart. This confirms that the SPI effectively captures meteorological drought signals that lead to agricultural drought losses. Consistency between SPI trends and drought area data confirms the SPI's reliability as an early indicator of drought impacts in northern China. Furthermore, it emphasizes that severe SPI declines can result in widespread exposure of agricultural land to drought, causing catastrophic losses.
图 1A 说明了 1980 年至 2024 年年度 SPI 与粮食总产量之间的线性回归关系。观察到中等的、具有统计学意义的正相关 （r = 0.66，p < 0.001，R² = 0.439），表明较高的 SPI 值对应于较高的谷物产量。 相比之下，图 1B 显示了 SPEI 与作物产量之间的回归关系，表明相关性较弱 （R² = 0.0381）。因此，在这种情况下，SPI 似乎是河北省气候-水文平衡与农业产量之间关系的指标，而不是 SPEI。图 1C 说明了 1980 年至 2020 年河北省受旱灾区和旱灾区的年际变化。这些变化与 SPI 值相关，反映了干旱条件的强度和频率。从 1998 年到 2000 年，在受旱灾和旱灾地区观察到显著的峰值，对应于上图中最低的 SPI 值。这证实了 SPI 有效地捕获了导致农业干旱损失的气象干旱信号。SPI 趋势和干旱面积数据之间的一致性证实了 SPI 作为中国北方干旱影响早期指标的可靠性。此外，它强调 SPI 的严重下降会导致农业用地广泛暴露在干旱中，从而造成灾难性的损失。

These results demonstrate that the SPI can serve as a reliable indicator for assessing the severity of agricultural drought and its impact on grain yield and disaster exposure. Based on this finding, the SPI was selected as the core drought index in the subsequent analysis of drought effects on the economy, society, and ecosystem, which will be discussed in Sections 4.2–4.4.
这些结果表明，SPI 可以作为评估农业干旱严重程度及其对粮食产量和灾害风险影响的可靠指标。基于这一发现， 在随后对干旱对经济、社会和生态系统影响的分析中，SPI 被选为核心干旱指数，这将在第 4.2-4.4 节中讨论。

4.2 The effect of drought on economics
4.2 干旱对经济的影响

Figure 2 presents a comprehensive view of the relationship between hydroclimatic variability and grain yield in Hebei Province from 1980 to 2024.
图 2 显示了 1980 年至 2024 年河北省水文气候变率与粮食产量之间关系的综合视图。

Figure 2A plots the annual mean of the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), where lower SPI values indicate more severe drought conditions, while higher values suggest wetter conditions. A notable prolonged drought period occurred between 1998 and 2004, during which the SPI values frequently dropped below -1. The years 1999 and 2001 represent the lowest SPI values in the 40-year period, indicating arid conditions.
图 2A 绘制了 12 个月标准化降水指数 （SPI） 的年平均值，其中较低的 SPI 值表示更严重的干旱条件，而较高的值表示更潮湿的条件。1998 年至 2004 年期间发生了显着的长期干旱期，在此期间 SPI 值经常降至 -1 以下。 1999 年和 2001 年是 40 年期间最低的 SPI 值 ，表明条件干旱。

Correspondingly, Figure 2A shows the grain yield trend over the same period. While yield has generally increased over the decades, production dropped sharply between 1998 and 2004, especially in 1999 and 2001, aligning with the extreme drought years. In addition, 1984 and 1992 also experienced moderate yield declines corresponding to local SPI minima, suggesting a consistent link between drought severity and production loss.
相应地， 图 2A 显示了同期的粮食产量趋势。虽然几十年来单产总体上有所增加，但在 1998 年至 2004 年期间产量急剧下降，尤其是在 1999 年和 2001 年，这与极端干旱年份相吻合。此外，1984 年和 1992 年也经历了对应于当地 SPI 最小值的适度单产下降，这表明干旱严重性与生产损失之间存在一致的联系。

Additionally, Figure 2A shows the annual average Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values from 1981 to 2023, while Figure 2B displays the corresponding grain production trends over the same period. The SPI values have gradually risen, indicating that climate conditions have generally become wetter. Meanwhile, grain production has experienced significant long-term growth, reflecting advances in agricultural productivity and food security. For example, SPI values sharply declined during the late 1990s and early 2000s, reaching their lowest point around 1999–2001 and indicating a period of severe drought. This coincides with the noticeable decrease in grain production shown in Figure 2B during the same period. Similarly, minor declines in SPI around 1984, 1992, and 2003 were accompanied by reductions or stagnation in grain production.
此外，图 2A 显示了 1981 年至 2023 年的年平均标准化降水指数 （SPI） 值，而图 2B 显示了同期相应的粮食生产趋势。SPI 值逐渐上升，表明气候条件普遍变得更加潮湿。与此同时，粮食生产经历了显著的长期增长，反映了农业生产力和粮食安全的进步。例如，SPI 值在 1990 年代末和 2000 年代初急剧下降，在 1999-2001 年左右达到最低点，表明存在严重干旱时期。这与同期图 2B 所示的粮食产量显着下降相吻合。同样，1984 年、1992 年和 2003 年左右 SPI 的小幅下降伴随着粮食产量的减少或停滞。

These patterns support the conclusion that declines in SPI (indicating drought stress) are associated with reductions in agricultural production. While production continues to grow in the long term due to technological, policy and infrastructural improvements, crop production remains highly sensitive to short-term climate variability, particularly drought events.
这些模式支持以下结论：SPI 的下降（表明干旱胁迫）与农业产量的减少有关。虽然由于技术、政策和基础设施的改进，产量在长期内继续增长，但作物生产对短期气候变化，特别是干旱事件仍然高度敏感。

Table 2 Annual production of major crops in Hebei Province from 1980 to 2024
表 2 1980—2024 年河北省主要农作物年产量

The Precipitation Index (SPI) and crop yields in Hebei Province from 1980 to 2024 reveal that various agricultural products react differently to drought conditions(Table 2). Among the major crops, maize yields are most sensitive to changes in the SPI. The strong, statistically significant correlation between the two indicates that annual fluctuations in precipitation, as reflected by SPI values, have a direct impact on maize yield outcomes. Years with low or highly negative SPI values typically correspond to meteorological drought, causing declines in maize yields during those times. This is likely linked to maize's physiological traits, which require high water levels during critical growth stages such as tasseling, pollination, and grain filling. Water stress during these periods can disrupt reproductive development and reduce grain yield, resulting in yield losses. Conversely, the relationship between total grain yields (including wheat, rice, and coarse grains) and SPI is much weaker. This may be because winter wheat is planted in autumn and harvested before the peak of summer drought, avoiding the most severe drought periods. Additionally, crops like millet, barley, and vegetables often utilize irrigation more efficiently or are grown in protected environments like greenhouses, which further mitigate the impact of meteorological drought.
1980 年至 2024 年河北省的降水指数 （SPI） 和农作物产量表明，各种农产品对干旱条件的反应不同（表 2）。在主要作物中，玉米产量对 SPI 的变化最敏感。两者之间具有很强的统计学显著相关性表明，SPI 值所反映的降水年波动对玉米产量结果有直接影响。SPI 值低或高度负的年份通常对应于气象干旱，导致在此期间玉米产量下降。这可能与玉米的生理特性有关，在抽穗、授粉和籽粒灌浆等关键生长阶段需要高水分含量。这些时期的水分胁迫会破坏生殖发育并降低粮食产量，从而导致产量损失。相反，粮食总产量（包括小麦、大米和粗粮）与 SPI 之间的关系要弱得多。这可能是因为冬小麦在秋季播种，并在夏季干旱高峰期之前收获，避开了最严重的干旱期。此外，小米、大麦和蔬菜等作物通常更有效地利用灌溉，或者生长在温室等受保护的环境中，这进一步减轻了气象干旱的影响 。

From a policy and planning perspective, this crop-specific sensitivity has critical implications. Corn, a major staple and feed crop with broad industrial and consumption relevance, is central to food security and the agricultural economy. Its vulnerability to drought means that any significant reduction in yield can directly affect grain market stability, livestock production costs, and rural household incomes. In years of extreme drought, the compounded losses in corn yield can also stress provincial grain reserves and lead to price volatility across the food system.
从政策和规划的角度来看，这种作物特异性敏感性具有关键意义。 玉米是一种主要的主食和饲料作物，具有广泛的工业和消费相关性，对粮食安全和农业经济至关重要。它对干旱的脆弱性意味着产量的任何大幅下降都会直接影响粮食市场的稳定性、畜牧生产成本和农村家庭收入。在极端干旱的年份，玉米产量的复合损失也会给各省粮食储备带来压力，并导致整个粮食系统的价格波动。

Therefore, the findings strongly advocate for targeted drought adaptation strategies for corn production in Hebei. These may include developing and promoting drought-tolerant corn varieties, improving water-saving irrigation systems (e.g., drip irrigation), adjusting sowing dates based on climate forecasts, and enhancing meteorological early warning systems. Policy support mechanisms such as climate-indexed insurance or crop diversification incentives could also help mitigate drought risk. Ultimately, improving corn’s resilience to drought is an agronomic priority and a socioeconomic safeguard for millions of rural households that depend on crop stability for their livelihoods.
因此，研究结果强烈主张河北省玉米生产采用有针对性的干旱适应策略 。这些措施可能包括开发和推广耐旱玉米品种、改进节水灌溉系统（例如滴灌）、根据气候预报调整播种日期以及加强气象预警系统。气候指数保险或作物多样化激励措施等政策支持机制也有助于减轻干旱风险。归根结底，提高玉米的抗旱能力是农艺的优先事项，也是数百万依赖作物稳定维持生计的农村家庭的社会经济保障。

Between 1980 and 2012, the number of rural households and the population in Hebei Province increased steadily. However, this long-term trend masked a significant slowdown in rural population growth from 1998 to 2006. This period coincided with one of the most severe and prolonged droughts in the province's history, as reflected in previous analyses of SPI values(Table 3).
1980 年至 2012 年期间，河北省的农村家庭数量和人口稳步增长。然而，这一长期趋势掩盖了 1998 年至 2006 年农村人口增长的显著放缓。这一时期恰逢该省历史上最严重和持续时间最持久的干旱之一，这反映在之前对 SPI 值的分析中（表 3）。

The population changes observed during this period likely reflect the indirect social consequences of environmental stress. Water shortages and agricultural productivity decline caused by the prolonged drought may have exacerbated rural vulnerability, forcing many households to adapt their livelihoods. Affected households may have sent their working-age population to urban areas for employment and income, explaining the stagnant population growth despite the continued household increase. This process often leads to a rise in empty-nest households or households composed of the elderly and children — a phenomenon that has become increasingly common in drought-prone rural areas of China.
在此期间观察到的种群变化可能反映了环境压力的间接社会后果。长期干旱导致的水资源短缺和农业生产力下降可能加剧了农村的脆弱性，迫使许多家庭调整生计。受影响的家庭可能已将劳动年龄人口送到城市地区就业和收入，这解释了尽管家庭持续增长，但人口增长停滞不前。这个过程通常会导致空巢家庭或由老人和儿童组成的家庭的增加——这种现象在中国干旱多发的农村地区越来越普遍。

Additionally, despite the slowdown in population growth, the continued increase in the number of households may indicate the fragmentation of family structures. Under economic pressure, extended families may split into smaller units to access government support or to manage resources more flexibly. Meanwhile, the development gap between well-irrigated and rain-fed areas may widen further as drought exacerbates regional inequalities and leads to an uneven distribution of agricultural resilience.
此外，尽管人口增长放缓，但家庭数量的持续增加可能表明家庭结构的碎片化。在经济压力下，大家庭可能会分成更小的单位，以获得政府支持或更灵活地管理资源。与此同时，随着干旱加剧区域不平等并导致农业韧性分布不均，灌溉良好地区和雨养地区之间的发展差距可能会进一步扩大。

Policy-wise, this period likely exposed institutional weaknesses in rural drought preparedness and response mechanisms. Delays in infrastructure investment, insurance implementation, and social safety nets may have deepened the impact of environmental stress. Furthermore, the demographic shifts observed in the early 2000s may have lasting effects on the following decades, shaping labor force availability, rural land use decisions, and long-term migration patterns.
在政策方面，这一时期可能暴露了 农村干旱准备和应对机制的制度弱点。基础设施投资、保险实施和社会安全网的延迟可能加深了环境压力的影响。此外，2000 年代初观察到的人口变化可能会对接下来的几十年产生持久影响，影响劳动力供应、农村土地使用决策和长期迁移模式。

In conclusion, the 1998–2006 drought period in Hebei Province seems to have affected agricultural output and changed the demographic and social structure of rural communities. Understanding these connected effects of climate stress and socio-economic adaptation is crucial for developing more resilient agricultural and rural systems amid ongoing climate change.
总之，河北省 1998-2006 年的干旱期似乎影响了农业产出并改变了农村社区的人口和社会结构。了解气候压力和社会经济适应的这些相互影响，对于在持续的气候变化中发展更具韧性的农业和农村系统至关重要 。

4.4Shift in Drought Sensitivity of Crop Yield: 1981–2000 vs. 2001–2024
4.4作物产量干旱敏感性的变化：1981-2000 年与 2001-2024 年

Figure 3 shows a time series comparison of the relationship between the annual Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and grain production in Hebei Province. Subfigure A (1981–2000) reveals a weak, statistically insignificant positive correlation between the two variables (Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.31, p = 0.179, and coefficient of determination R² = 0.098). This suggests that SPI fluctuations had a minimal impact on agricultural production during this periodx. This may reflect the farm system's relatively low dependence on water resources at the time, possibly due to widespread adoption of water-insensitive cropping systems or relatively stable climatic conditions.
图 3 显示了河北省年度标准化降水指数 （SPI） 与粮食生产之间关系的时间序列比较。子图 A （1981–2000） 揭示了两个变量之间的微弱、统计学上不显著的正相关 （Pearson 相关系数 r = 0.31，p = 0.179，决定系数 R² = 0.098）。这表明 SPI 波动对这一时期 x 的农业生产影响最小 。这可能反映了当时农场系统对水资源的依赖相对较低，这可能是由于广泛采用对水不敏感的种植系统或相对稳定的气候条件。

In contrast, subfigure B (2001–2024) shows a strong, statistically significant positive correlation (Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.85, p < 0.001, coefficient of determination R² = 0.718). This indicates that SPI fluctuations have become the primary driver of yield variability.
相比之下，子图 B （2001-2024） 显示出很强的、具有统计学意义的正相关 （皮尔逊相关系数 r = 0.85，p < 0.001，决定系数 R² = 0.718）。这表明 SPI 波动已成为产量变化的主要驱动因素。

An analysis of the relationship between the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and crop yields in Hebei Province from 1980 to 2024 indicates that different agricultural products exhibit significant differences in their responses to climatic drought conditions. Among the major crops, maize yields are the most sensitive to changes in the SPI. The strong, statistically significant correlation between the two variables indicates that interannual fluctuations in precipitation (as reflected by SPI values) have a direct and significant impact on maize yield outcomes. Years with low or strongly negative SPI values are typically associated with meteorological drought, and maize yields generally decline during such years. This may be related to the physiological characteristics of maize, given its extremely high water requirements during critical growth stages such as tasselling, pollination, and grain filling. Short-term water stress during these stages may hinder reproductive development and reduce grain formation, ultimately leading to yield losses. In contrast, the association between total grain yields (including wheat, rice and coarse grains) and SPI is much weaker. This may be because winter wheat is typically sown in autumn and harvested before the summer drought peaks, thereby avoiding the most severe period of drought. Furthermore, certain crops such as millet, barley, and vegetables often utilise irrigation resources more efficiently or are grown in protected environments such as greenhouses, which mitigates the impact of meteorological drought even further.
对 1980 年至 2024 年河北省标准化降水指数 （SPI） 与农作物产量之间关系的分析表明，不同农产品对气候干旱条件的响应表现出显著差异。 在主要作物中，玉米产量对 SPI 的变化最敏感。两个变量之间具有很强的统计学意义相关性表明，降水的年际波动（由 SPI 值反映）对玉米产量结果有直接和显着的影响。SPI 值低或强负值的年份通常与气象干旱有关，玉米产量在这些年份通常会下降。这可能与玉米的生理特性有关，因为它在抽穗、授粉和籽粒灌浆等关键生长阶段对水的需求极高。这些阶段的短期水分胁迫可能会阻碍生殖发育并减少谷物形成，最终导致产量损失。相比之下，粮食总产量（包括小麦、大米和粗粮）与 SPI 之间的关联要弱得多。这可能是因为冬小麦通常在秋季播种，并在夏季干旱高峰之前收获，从而避免了最严重的干旱期。此外，小米、大麦和蔬菜等某些作物通常更有效地利用灌溉资源，或者在温室等受保护的环境中种植，从而进一步减轻了气象干旱的影响。

4.5 Comparison of Farmer Participation and Policy Interaction Mechanisms: A China-US Perspective
4.5 农户参与与政策互动机制的比较：中美视角

4.5.1 Differences in Farmer Participation and Perspectives
4.5.1 农民参与和观点的差异

The extent of farmer participation directly influences the adaptability and sustainability of drought management policies at the local level. In the two vastly different policy frameworks of China and the United States, the boundaries of farmers' roles and their actual power differ significantly, forming a crucial dividing line in the effectiveness of drought response measures.
农民参与的程度直接影响地方一级干旱管理政策的适应性和可持续性。在中美两国截然不同的政策框架中，农民的角色界限和实际权力差异很大，形成了干旱应对措施有效性的重要分界线。

In China, drought management follows a top-down policy design logic. From the central government's formulation of drought prevention and control plans to the local government's specific implementation, the policy transmission pathway exhibits a strong administrative driving force. While farmers are included as targets of governance, they rarely participate in the governance process. This structure relegates farmers to the role of ‘recipients’ rather than ‘shapers’ of policy. In practice, while some cooperatives have been widely promoted, they often lack effective self-governance mechanisms and member mobilisation capabilities, reducing them to symbolic organisations. This not only results in drought response resources being wasted at the grassroots level but also further restricts the institutional space for farmers to express their needs and propose policy adjustments.
在中国，干旱管理遵循自上而下的政策设计逻辑。从中央制定干旱防治计划到地方政府的具体实施，政策传导路径表现出强大的行政驱动力。虽然农民被列为治理目标，但他们很少参与治理过程。这种结构将农民降级为政策的“接受者”而不是“塑造者”的角色。在实践中，虽然一些合作社得到了广泛推广，但它们往往缺乏有效的自治机制和成员动员能力，使它们沦为象征性组织。这不仅导致基层的抗旱资源被浪费，也进一步限制了农民表达需求和提出政策调整的制度空间。

More importantly, China's current governance structure often overlooks farmers' actual perceptions of drought risks and their main concerns. Most farmers do not prioritize the integrity of institutional design but focus on whether they can access stable water sources, reliable transportation, diverse income streams, and the ability to allocate labor. This ‘life-oriented logic’ is strongly misaligned with policy schemes focused on water conservancy projects and technology promotion. Especially given the severe land fragmentation and the aging and feminization of the agricultural labor force, small-scale farmers have very limited resources and organizational capabilities, making it hard for them to develop systematic response strategies.
更重要的是，中国目前的治理结构往往忽视了农民对干旱风险的实际认知和他们主要关心的问题。大多数农民并不优先考虑制度设计的完整性，而是关注他们是否能够获得稳定的水源、可靠的交通、多样化的收入来源以及分配劳动力的能力。这种“以生命为导向的逻辑”与侧重于水利工程和技术推广的政策计划严重不一致。特别是考虑到严重的土地碎片化以及农业劳动力的老龄化和女性化，小农户的资源和组织能力非常有限，这使得他们难以制定系统的应对策略。

In contrast, drought management in the United States emphasizes decentralised decision-making and community involvement more. State governments, farmers, water user groups, and local institutions work together to create a drought response plan. Farmers are not just recipients of policies but also active participants and providers of feedback. Various early warning systems, insurance mechanisms, and digital platforms form a complete chain from risk monitoring and information sharing to action implementation, helping farmers to plan ahead and adapt independently. This decentralised governance structure gives farmers greater responsiveness and flexibility in decision-making.
相比之下，美国的干旱管理更强调分散决策和社区参与。州政府、农民、用水团体和地方机构共同制定干旱应对计划。农民不仅是政策的接受者，也是反馈的积极参与者和提供者。各种预警系统、保险机制和数字平台形成了从风险监测和信息共享到行动实施的完整链条，帮助农民提前规划并独立适应。这种分散的治理结构使农民在决策方面具有更大的响应能力和灵活性。

Based on these differences, it is clear that China's main challenge is not a lack of policy resources but long-term neglect of farmers' agency in policy implementation. Institutional designs often emphasize project planning, funding allocation, and performance metrics, while ignoring the alignment between policies and farmers' behavioral logic. To genuinely improve farmers' participation and motivate their initiative, the following measures should be adopted: Create a farmer-focused feedback system to ensure policies not only ‘reach’ farmers but also ‘address’ their real concerns; Redefine the roles of cooperatives and village organizations, shifting from ‘implementation intermediaries’ to ‘negotiation platforms’ to strengthen collaborative governance; Tackle structural issues like labor migration and land fragmentation, and provide sufficient support through social policy; Promote local information services for farmers, helping them access weather data, interpret drought signals, and respondina's main challenge is not a lack of policy resources but long-term neglect of farmers' agency in policy implementation. Institutional designs often emphasize project planning, funding allocation, and performance metrics, while ignoring the alignment between policies and farmers' behavioral logic. To genuinely improve farmers' participation and motivate their initiative, the following measures should be adopted: Create a farmer-focused feedback system to ensure policies not only ‘reach’ farmers but also ‘address’ their real concerns; Redefine the roles of cooperatives and village organizations, shifting from ‘implementation intermediaries’ to ‘negotiation platforms’ to strengthen collaborative governance; Tackle structural issues like labor migration and land fragmentation, and provide sufficient support through social policy; Promote local information services for farmers, helping them access weather data, interpret drought signals, and respond accordingly.
基于这些差异，很明显，中国的主要挑战不是缺乏政策资源，而是农民在政策实施中的能动性长期忽视。制度设计通常强调项目规划、资金分配和绩效指标，而忽视了政策与农民行为逻辑之间的一致性。为了真正提高农民的参与度并激励他们的主动性，应采取以下措施：建立一个以农民为中心的反馈系统，确保政策不仅“覆盖”农民，而且“解决”他们真正的担忧;重新定义合作社和村庄组织的角色，从“实施中介”转变为“谈判平台”，以加强协作治理;解决劳动力迁移和土地分割等结构性问题，并通过社会政策提供足够的支持;为农民提供本地信息服务，帮助他们获取天气数据，解释干旱信号，并响应 Respondina 的主要挑战不是缺乏政策资源，而是长期忽视农民在政策实施中的能动性。制度设计通常强调项目规划、资金分配和绩效指标，而忽视了政策与农民行为逻辑之间的一致性。 为了真正提高农民的参与度并激励他们的主动性，应采取以下措施：建立一个以农民为中心的反馈系统，确保政策不仅“覆盖”农民，而且“解决”他们真正的担忧;重新定义合作社和村庄组织的角色，从“实施中介”转变为“谈判平台”，以加强协作治理;解决劳动力迁移和土地分割等结构性问题，并通过社会政策提供足够的支持;为农民提供本地信息服务，帮助他们获取天气数据、解释干旱信号并做出相应的响应。

In summary, if China aims to establish a more resilient drought governance system, it cannot rely solely on administrative orders and technical solutions. Instead, it must undergo a systemic transformation from ‘control’ to ‘collaboration.’ Farmers should transition from passive policy recipients to active nodes within the governance network. Only then can drought governance achieve a fundamental shift from an ‘input-driven’ to an ‘endogenous’ model.
总而言之，如果中国的目标是建立一个更具韧性的干旱治理体系，就不能仅仅依靠行政命令和技术解决方案。相反，它必须经历从“控制”到“协作”的系统性转变。农民应该从被动策略接收者过渡到治理网络中的主动节点。只有这样，干旱治理才能实现从“投入驱动”到“内生”模式的根本转变。

4.6 Drought Early Warning and Information Disclosure Mechanisms
4.6 干旱预警和信息披露机制

An effective drought early warning system (DEWS) is a key tool for minimising agricultural climate risks. Through timely, accurate, and transparent information disclosure, early warning mechanisms can not only raise farmers' risk awareness but also enhance the proactivity and coordination of policy responses. China and the United States have demonstrated different development logics in terms of institutional frameworks, information flow pathways, and local response capabilities, reflecting the interactive relationship between institutional design and technical capabilities.
有效的干旱预警系统 （DEWS） 是最大限度地降低农业气候风险的关键工具。通过及时、准确和透明的信息披露，预警机制不仅可以提高农民的风险意识，还可以增强政策应对的主动性和协调性。中美两国在制度框架、信息流路径、地方响应能力等方面表现出不同的发展逻辑，体现了制度设计与技术能力的交互关系。

In China, drought warning systems are still primarily government-led, top-down systems, with warning information mostly issued by meteorological departments and transmitted through provincial, municipal, and county-level channels before reaching farmers. While this centralised architecture offers certain emergency response advantages during sudden disasters, it often faces issues such as ‘information lag,’ ‘layered instructions,’ and ‘execution disconnect’ in routine warnings, particularly in central and western regions with lower information transparency, where warning dissemination frequently fails to translate into actionable responses for farmers. Farmers primarily rely on traditional radio broadcasts, bulletin boards, or verbal notifications from village officials to obtain information, lacking the ability to interpret meteorological indicators, remote sensing data, or model predictions in a localised manner.
在中国，干旱预警系统仍然主要是政府主导的、自上而下的系统，预警信息主要由气象部门发布，并通过省、市和县级渠道传播，然后到达农民手中。虽然这种集中式架构在突发灾害期间提供了一定的应急响应优势，但它在常规预警中经常面临“信息滞后”、“ 分层指令”和“执行脱节”等问题，特别是在信息透明度较低的中西部地区，预警传播往往无法转化为农民的可作响应。农民主要依靠传统的无线电广播、公告板或村干部的口头通知来获取信息，缺乏解释气象指标、遥感数据或以本地化方式进行模型预测的能力。

Although China has made significant progress in recent years in the development of drought indices (such as SPI, SPEI, and PDSI), remote sensing monitoring, and model coupling applications, and has promoted cross-departmental data collaboration, there remains a ‘last-mile’ bottleneck between these technological achievements and end-users. While technical systems are highly integrated, farmers lack interactive platforms, data understanding capabilities, and customised recommendations, resulting in limited effectiveness of early warning systems in practical applications. Especially among smallholder farmers, the linkage between early warning information and crop management or irrigation decisions has not yet been institutionalised into a systematic guidance mechanism.
尽管近年来中国在干旱指数（如 SPI、SPEI 和 PDSI）的开发、遥感监测和模型耦合应用方面取得了重大进展，并促进了跨部门数据协作，但这些技术成果与最终用户之间仍然存在“最后一英里”瓶颈。虽然技术系统高度集成，但农民缺乏交互式平台、数据理解能力和定制建议，导致预警系统在实际应用中的有效性有限。特别是在小农户中，早期预警信息与作物管理或灌溉决策之间的联系尚未制度化为系统的指导机制。

In contrast, the U.S. drought monitoring and early warning system emphasizes user-centricity, decentralization, and inter-agency collaboration. Its early warnings are not merely the dissemination of meteorological signals but also focus on dynamic connections with farmers' production plans, resource allocation, and economic decision-making. For example, various mobile applications, climate dashboards, and local drought task forces provide farmers with real-time, visualised early warning data, supplemented by impact assessments and action recommendations. More importantly, the principle of data openness in the U.S. drought management mechanism enables farmers, researchers, and local administrators to equally access, share, and analyse relevant information, thereby building a trust-based information interaction environment.
相比之下，美国的干旱监测和预警系统强调以用户为中心、去中心化和机构间协作。它的早期预警不仅仅是气象信号的传播，还侧重于与农民生产计划、资源分配和经济决策的动态联系。例如，各种移动应用程序、气候仪表板和当地干旱工作组为农民提供实时、可视化的早期预警数据，并辅以影响评估和行动建议。更重要的是，美国干旱管理机制中的数据开放原则使农民、研究人员和地方管理人员能够平等地访问、共享和分析相关信息，从而构建基于信任的信息交互环境。

From the perspective of China's future development, the improvement of the warning mechanism lies not only in strengthening technical capabilities but also in how information is understood, trusted, and ultimately acted upon. Therefore, the construction of a drought information system for farmers needs to emphasise the following changes: Shifting from ‘information dissemination’ to ‘information co-creation.’ Rather than relying solely on standardised information released by meteorological departments, it is essential to develop differentiated information services based on crop types, irrigation systems, and regional risks through two-way communication with farmers; Shifting from ‘reactive early warning’ to ‘proactive governance.’ It is necessary to transition the drought information system from disaster response to a risk management system, incorporating early monitoring, probabilistic forecasting, and resource allocation into routine management; From ‘static data’ to ‘dynamic feedback.’ Break down the barriers between data release and user feedback by introducing farmer feedback mechanisms, behavioural data, and local knowledge into information platforms, enabling interactive adjustments between models and actual conditions; Transition from ‘fragmented collaboration’ to ‘systemic coordination.’ Combine resources from various departments such as meteorology, water conservancy, agriculture, and forestry to create a unified drought risk information platform, preventing multiple management, redundant information, and resource wastage.
从中国未来发展的角度来看，预警机制的完善不仅在于加强技术能力，还在于如何理解、信任和最终处理信息。因此， 农民干旱信息系统的建设需要强调以下变化：从“信息传播”转向“信息共创”。与其仅仅依赖气象部门发布的标准化信息，不如通过与农民的双向沟通，根据作物类型、灌溉系统和区域风险开发差异化的信息服务;从“被动预警”转变为“主动治理”。有必要将干旱信息系统从灾害响应转变为风险管理系统，将早期监测、概率预测和资源分配纳入日常管理;从“静态数据”到“动态反馈”。通过将农民反馈机制、行为数据和当地知识引入信息平台，实现模型与实际情况的互动调整，打破数据发布和用户反馈之间的壁垒; 从 “ 碎片化协作 ” 过渡到 “ 系统性协调”。' 整合气象、水利、农林等各部门资源，打造统一的干旱风险信息平台，防止多元管理、信息冗余、资源浪费 。

In summary, the key to drought warning systems lies not only in technological advances but also in creating an efficient, interconnected network that evolves collaboratively among technology, policy, and farmers. In this process, the transparency, fairness, and operability of information will determine the system's resilience. If China can redefine information disclosure and response mechanisms with farmers at the core, it will have the potential to shift from a ‘data-driven’ to an ‘action-driven’ phase of early warning governance.
总之，干旱预警系统的关键不仅在于技术进步 ， 还在于创建一个高效、互联的网络，在技术、政策和农民之间协同工作。在这个过程中，信息的透明度、公平性和可作性将决定系统的弹性。如果中国能够重新定义以农民为核心的信息披露和响应机制，那么它就有可能从“数据驱动”转变为“行动驱动”的早期预警治理阶段。

5. Conclusion
5. C 结论

This study offers an assessment of how agricultural droughts and governance issues affect China, by integrating spatial drought indicators (SPI and SPEI), socio-economic data, and policy comparison. The study also shows that SPI is a more sensitive and dependable indicator of agricultural drought impacts than SPEI. Additionally, institutional challenges—such as limited farmer participation, top-down governance, and inadequate early warning systems—significantly weaken China’s drought resilience. A comparative look at the U.S. model underscores the value of transparent data platforms, and farmer involvement in policy creation and execution. The results suggest that China’s future drought management should In future, China could learn from the United States' experience to improve its drought information system further, strengthen risk management and policy coordination, and enhance its overall capacity to respond to extreme drought events. In the end, developing an inclusive, data-driven, and adaptable drought management system is crucial for maintaining agricultural sustainability and socio-economic stability amid increasing climate challenges.
本研究对农业干旱和治理问题如何影响中国进行了评估， 并整合了空间干旱指标（SPI 和 SPEI）、社会经济数据和政策比较 。该研究还表明，SPI 是比 SPEI 更敏感、更可靠的农业干旱影响指标 。 此外，体制挑战 —— 如农民参与有限、自上而下的治理和早期预警系统不足 —— 大大削弱了中国的抗旱能力。对美国模式的比较观察强调了透明数据平台的价值，以及农民参与政策制定和执行的价值。研究结果表明，中国未来的干旱管理应借鉴美国的经验，进一步完善其干旱信息系统，加强风险管理和政策协调，提高其应对极端干旱事件的整体能力。最后，在日益严峻的气候挑战 中，开发一个包容的、数据驱动的、适应性强的干旱管理系统对于维持农业可持续性和社会经济稳定至关重要 。

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