上海郊区的储油罐。图片来源：彭博社
July 21, 2025 at 9:00 pm ET
2025 年 7 月 21 日美国东部时间晚上 9 点
BEIJING—China’s thirst for oil drove global demand for decades. Now a government campaign to curb that addiction is nearing a milestone, with national consumption expected to peak by 2027, then begin to fall.
北京——数十年来，中国对石油的渴求推动着全球需求。如今，政府遏制这种依赖的运动即将迎来里程碑，预计全国石油消费量将在 2027 年达到峰值，随后开始下降。
Chinese officials have long worried that the U.S. and its allies could hamstring the nation’s economy by choking off its supply of foreign oil. So China has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into weaning itself off the imported stuff by reviving domestic production and swiftly building the world’s leading electric-vehicle industry.
中国官员长期以来一直担心，美国及其盟友可能通过切断外国石油供应来扼制中国经济。因此，中国已投入数千亿美元，通过重振国内石油产量和迅速打造全球领先的电动汽车产业，逐步摆脱对进口石油的依赖。
“The energy rice bowl must be held in our own hands,” Chinese leader Xi Jinping has said.
中国国家领导人习近平曾表示："能源的饭碗必须端在自己手里。"
Across China, fleets of gas-guzzling Volkswagen and Hyundai taxicabs are being replaced by electric models designed and produced locally. Last year, nearly half of passenger vehicles sold in the country were either all-electrics or plug-in hybrids, compared with 6% in 2020.
在中国各地，耗油量大的大众和现代出租车正逐渐被本土设计和生产的电动车型取代。去年，中国销售的乘用车中有近一半是纯电动或插电式混合动力汽车，而 2020 年这一比例仅为 6%。
In a remote corner of China called the “sea of death” for its harsh conditions, oil workers are trying to coax more crude out of the ground by drilling holes as deep as Mt. Everest is high. State-owned PetroChina reported $38 billion of capital expenditures last year, nearly as much as Exxon Mobil’s and Chevron’s combined.
在中国一个被称为"死亡之海"的偏远角落，石油工人们正试图通过钻探深度相当于珠穆朗玛峰高度的油井，从地下开采更多原油。国有企业中国石油去年报告了 380 亿美元的资本支出，几乎相当于埃克森美孚和雪佛龙的总和。
China boosted oil output by 13% from 2018 to 2024, to around 4.3 million barrels a day. Crude imports fell nearly 2% last year, though they have rebounded slightly this year as some Chinese companies built stockpiles.
2018 年至 2024 年间，中国石油产量增长 13%，达到每日约 430 万桶。去年原油进口量下降近 2%，不过今年随着部分中国企业建立库存已略有回升。
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在中国"黑灯工厂"里，机器人 24 小时不停歇地组装电动车，将中国电动汽车产业塑造成对美国和全球汽车制造商的生存威胁。图片来源：华尔街日报
China’s biggest state oil companies and the International Energy Agency all forecast that China’s demand for oil will likely peak within two years, while gasoline and diesel demand has already topped out.
中国主要国有石油公司及国际能源署均预测，中国石油需求很可能在未来两年内见顶，而汽油和柴油需求已达峰值。
China won’t stop importing oil. It still brings in roughly 11 million barrels a day, about 70% of what it consumes, up from less than three million a day 20 years ago. And overall oil consumption is likely to decline only gradually as China’s demand for oil to make petrochemicals continues to grow.
中国不会停止进口石油。目前其日均进口量仍达约 1100 万桶，占消费总量的 70%左右，而 20 年前这一数字还不足 300 万桶。随着中国对石化原料用油需求的持续增长，其石油总消费量可能只会缓慢下降。
Nevertheless, Xi’s campaign will have ramifications for global energy markets, with billions of dollars of Chinese oil imports projected to vanish in coming years. In June, the IEA, a Paris-based organization that tracks global oil consumption, slashed its forecast for Chinese demand in the 2028-30 period by more than one million barrels a day from its year-earlier prediction.
尽管如此，习近平主席的这场行动仍将对全球能源市场产生深远影响。据预测，未来几年中国石油进口量将减少数十亿美元。总部位于巴黎、追踪全球石油消费的国际能源署（IEA）在 6 月份大幅下调了对 2028-2030 年中国需求的预测，较一年前的预期值日均下调逾 100 万桶。
Many oil-exporting nations are eager to retain a slice of China’s market. Russia has been selling oil to China at a discount to ensure Beijing keeps buying. Saudi Arabia has invested in Chinese refineries to shore up long-term contracts to supply those facilities with oil.
许多石油出口国都渴望保住中国市场的份额。俄罗斯一直以折扣价向中国出售石油，以确保北京继续购买。沙特阿拉伯则投资了中国炼油厂，以巩固长期合同，向这些设施供应石油。
During a trip to Beijing in March, Saudi Aramco’s chief executive lavished praise on China, telling Xi that China was “inspirational and admirable” and “an oasis of certainty” in an unpredictable world.
今年 3 月访问北京期间，沙特阿美公司首席执行官对中国大加赞赏，告诉习近平主席，中国"鼓舞人心、令人钦佩"，在这个不可预测的世界中是"一片确定性的绿洲"。
The campaign has been costly for China’s government. The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington pegged Chinese government support for electric vehicles at $231 billion from 2009 to 2023. Many of the nation’s electric-vehicle makers are unprofitable. Overproduction has spurred a brutal price war at home, and rising EV exports that have fueled trade tensions.
这场行动对中国政府而言代价高昂。华盛顿战略与国际研究中心估算，2009 至 2023 年间中国政府为电动汽车产业提供的补贴高达 2310 亿美元。国内多数电动车制造商尚未实现盈利。产能过剩引发惨烈的价格战，激增的电动车出口加剧了贸易摩擦。
Energy ‘revolution’ 能源"革命"
In late 2013, when China overtook the U.S. as the world’s biggest net oil importer, its reliance on foreign crude looked set to grow unchecked, accounting for about half of global demand growth over the prior decade.
2013 年末，当中国超越美国成为全球最大石油净进口国时，其对外国原油的依赖似乎将不受控制地增长，占此前十年全球需求增量的约一半。
Soon after, Xi gathered his economic team and told them China needed an energy “revolution” to protect national security.
不久后，习近平召集经济团队，告诉他们中国需要一场能源"革命"来保障国家安全。
中国东北部渤海海域一处海上平台上的工人。图片来源：杜鹏辉/Zuma Press
Beijing was leery of relying too much on Middle Eastern oil, which had entangled the U.S. in that region’s conflicts for decades. Xi also was facing domestic discontent over choking smog, attributable in part to the surging numbers of cars on China’s roads.
北京对过度依赖中东石油心存戒备，这种依赖使美国深陷该地区冲突数十年。习近平还面临着国内对雾霾围城的不满，部分原因是中国道路上激增的汽车数量。
During the first Trump administration, as relations between the two nations deteriorated, Chinese government strategists grew concerned about the nation’s reliance on the Strait of Malacca. Most of the ships importing oil and gas to China go through that narrow passage near Singapore, leaving them susceptible to intercept by the U.S. Navy in the event of a conflict.
在特朗普首个任期内，随着两国关系恶化，中国政府战略人士开始担忧本国对马六甲海峡的依赖。中国进口的石油和天然气大部分需经新加坡附近的这条狭窄水道，一旦发生冲突，极易遭到美国海军拦截。
U.S. Deputy Secretary of Commerce Paul Dabbar has estimated that if China lost access to all seaborne oil-and-gas imports, its economy could shrink by as much as 17%.
美国商务部副部长保罗·达巴尔曾估算，如果中国完全失去海上油气进口渠道，其经济可能萎缩高达 17%。
Xi’s call for action ignited a flurry of government activity to boost its nascent EV industry. Not only would EVs help slash oil demand, they offered China a chance to leapfrog automakers in the U.S. and elsewhere after years of struggling to catch up to them in producing internal-combustion engines.
习近平的号召迅速引发政府一系列行动，以推动当时尚处萌芽阶段的电动汽车产业。电动汽车不仅能帮助大幅削减石油需求，更让中国获得赶超美日等传统车企的机会——在燃油车领域追赶数十年未果后，这一新兴产业提供了弯道超车的可能。
To reduce the cost of EVs, Beijing exempted them from a 10% sales tax—a program estimated to have cost more than $100 billion since 2018.
为降低电动汽车成本，中国政府免征其 10%的购置税——据估算，自 2018 年以来该政策已耗资超 1000 亿美元。
Nearly 500 companies sought to make EVs. Some were founded by executives with little experience running car companies, who burned through government money before flopping. By 2019, EVs and plug-in hybrids accounted for only a fraction of the market, with many Chinese consumers still hesitant to make the switch.
近 500 家企业曾试图进军电动车领域。其中部分公司由缺乏汽车行业管理经验的高管创立，在耗尽政府补贴后黯然退场。截至 2019 年，纯电动和插电混动车型仅占市场极小份额，多数中国消费者对转型电动车仍持观望态度。
The turning point came late that year when Tesla, with strong backing of Shanghai’s government, opened its first factory in China.
转折点出现在那年年底，特斯拉在上海政府的大力支持下，在中国开设了首家工厂。
“For the first time, Chinese consumers saw a really appealing, futuristic automobile,” said Michael Dunne, chief executive of auto consulting firm Dunne Insights. “It was good-looking, it was fast, it had all these highly attractive elements to a consumer.”
"中国消费者第一次看到了一款真正吸引人、充满未来感的汽车，"汽车咨询公司 Dunne Insights 的首席执行官迈克尔·邓恩表示，"它外观漂亮，速度快，对消费者来说具备所有这些极具吸引力的元素。"
As EV sales surged, the government ramped up subsidies for companies to build public charging ports. It also required new apartment buildings to provide infrastructure enabling residents to easily install their own.
随着电动汽车销量激增，政府加大了对企业建设公共充电桩的补贴力度。同时要求新建住宅小区必须配备基础设施，方便居民自行安装充电设施。
As of May, China had more than 14 million charging points, nine times as many as at the end of 2020. The U.S., by comparison, has around 230,000 public and private chargers, in addition to hundreds of thousands at private homes that are more difficult to track.
截至 5 月，中国已建成超过 1400 万个充电桩，是 2020 年底数量的 9 倍。相比之下，美国约有 23 万个公共和私人充电桩，此外还有数十万个家庭私人充电设施难以统计。
四月上海车展上展示的电动汽车充电站。截至五月，中国充电桩数量已突破 1400 万个。图片来源：GO NAKAMURA/REUTERS
中国宁波，电动汽车制造商极氪的生产线。近年来，中国电动汽车销量激增。图片来源：Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
In Shanghai, the city provided EV buyers with free green license plates while auctioning plates for traditional cars for more than $10,000.
在上海，市政府为电动汽车购买者提供免费绿色牌照，而传统燃油车的牌照则需通过拍卖获得，价格超过 1 万美元。
Cities replaced diesel-powered buses with electric ones. By 2023, more than 80% of China’s city buses were all-electrics or hybrids.
城市用电动公交车替代了柴油动力公交车。到 2023 年，中国 80%以上的城市公交车已实现纯电动或混合动力。
Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology reported $18 billion in net profit over the last three years and invested more than $7 billion into research and development. Today, CATL and rival BYD say their R&D spending has enabled each of them to develop technology to charge cars in just five minutes.
中国电池制造商宁德时代过去三年净利润达 180 亿美元，研发投入超过 70 亿美元。如今宁德时代与竞争对手比亚迪均表示，其研发投入使双方都掌握了五分钟快充技术。
These days, China’s EV factories are symbols of its manufacturing prowess. Less than 100 miles south of Tesla’s Shanghai operation, Chinese carmaker Zeekr has automated entire processes such as welding, with more than 800 robots doing the work.
如今中国电动车工厂已成为其制造业实力的象征。在特斯拉上海工厂以南不到 100 英里处，中国车企极氪实现了焊接等全流程自动化，800 多台机器人协同作业。
One of its cars, the Zeekr 001, has a range of up to 466 miles—about 180 miles more than the median range of an EV in the U.S. Inside a showroom recently, a salesman voice-activated a massage function built into the driver’s seat, while one of the car’s apps played Chinese karaoke classics on a video screen.
其旗下车型极氪 001 续航里程最高可达 466 英里——比美国电动汽车的中位续航里程多出约 180 英里。近日在一家展厅内，销售人员通过语音指令启动了驾驶座内置的按摩功能，同时车机系统的一款应用在显示屏上播放着中文卡拉 OK 经典曲目。
In the U.S., sales of EVs and hybrids have risen more slowly than in China, to 20% of light-vehicle sales at the end of last year, from 12% in early 2022, according to research firm Omdia. But high EV inventory levels at some dealerships suggest a limit to U.S. demand, and Congress is scrapping tax credits of up to $7,500 for EV purchases to save money for other priorities.
美国市场电动汽车和混合动力车的销量增速不及中国。研究机构 Omdia 数据显示，去年底美国轻型车销量中新能源车占比达 20%，较 2022 年初的 12%有所提升。但部分经销商处电动车库存高企，暗示美国市场需求存在上限。同时，国会为节省资金用于其他优先事项，正逐步取消最高 7500 美元的电动车购置税收抵免政策。
Drilling push 钻探热潮
China’s desire for energy independence dates all the way back to former leader Mao Zedong, who once dispatched tens of thousands of workers to search for oil in China’s northeast to ensure China wouldn’t be dependent on imports.
中国对能源独立的渴望可以一直追溯到前领导人毛泽东时代。毛泽东曾派遣数万名工人前往中国东北地区勘探石油，以确保中国不会依赖进口。
The discovery in 1959 of a massive deposit near the city of Daqing became the stuff of Communist Party lore, with “Daqing Spirit” coming to mean hard work in the face of challenges. But production at Daqing and other fields couldn’t keep up with the surge of demand following China’s economic reforms.
1959 年在大庆市附近发现的大型油田成为中国共产党传奇的一部分，"大庆精神"由此成为迎难而上、艰苦奋斗的代名词。但随着中国经济改革后需求激增，大庆及其他油田的产量已无法满足需求。
As the government prioritized EVs, state companies began cutting domestic oil output, preferring to import more of the crude they needed from less expensive sources abroad.
随着政府将电动汽车列为优先发展领域，国有企业开始削减国内石油产量，转而从国外更廉价的渠道进口所需原油。
In July 2018, Xi personally intervened, ordering state-owned companies to revive domestic production to safeguard national security.
2018 年 7 月，习近平亲自介入，要求国有企业恢复国内生产以保障国家安全。
Three state-owned oil majors invested an additional $10 billion the following year in exploration and production. They zeroed in on offshore areas such as the South China Sea and the Bohai Sea off the country’s northeast coast, as well as remote reserves near China’s western border with Kyrgyzstan, in a region called the Tarim Basin.
次年，三大国有石油巨头额外投入 100 亿美元用于勘探开采。他们将重点锁定在南海、东北沿海的渤海等近海区域，以及中国西部与吉尔吉斯斯坦接壤的偏远油田——塔里木盆地地区。
Cnooc, the company focused on offshore reserves, accelerated its drilling cycles to bring oil fields online more quickly. It teamed up with Chinese technology giant Huawei to digitize its operations, using tens of thousands of sensors to collect data and improve decision-making.
专注于海上油气储备的中海油公司加快了钻井周期，以更快实现油田投产。该公司与中国科技巨头华为合作推进业务数字化，通过部署数万个传感器采集数据以优化决策流程。
By 2023, the Bohai oil field accounted for 50% of the growth in China’s oil output. Cnooc also increased production in the South China Sea by more than a quarter since 2020. In that expanse of water off South China, the government has aggressively enforced disputed maritime claims against its neighbors.
截至 2023 年，渤海油田贡献了中国石油产量增长的 50%。自 2020 年以来，中海油在南海的产量也增加了四分之一以上。在这片毗邻中国南部的广阔海域，中国政府正强势推进与周边国家存在争议的海洋权益主张。
Cnooc said in a written statement that it aimed to raise its total oil-and-gas production as much as 15% between 2024 and 2027, and that two-thirds of its production would continue to come from China.
中海油在书面声明中表示，其目标是 2024 至 2027 年间将油气总产量提升至多 15%，且三分之二的产量仍将来自中国国内。
In the deserts of the Tarim Basin crews are exploring some of the nation’s deepest reserves. Summer temperatures can top 120 degrees, and in the winter they can hit minus 20. Such ultradeep exploration is expensive, with some wells costing three times as much as shallower traditional wells, a Chinese oil executive told state media.
在塔里木盆地的沙漠中，勘探队正在探寻中国最深的油气储备层。夏季气温可超过 120 华氏度，冬季则可能骤降至零下 20 度。一位中国石油高管向官方媒体透露，这类超深层勘探成本高昂，部分油井的造价是传统浅层油井的三倍。
中国最深勘探井——深地塔科 1 井，以及渤海海域的一处油田设施。 Xinhua via ZUMA Press 新华社通过 ZUMA PRESS 发布
In 2023, Xi held a video call with Tarim Basin oil workers, praising their “indispensable contributions” to the nation. About 5% of China’s total oil and gas output last year came from the basin’s deep reservoirs, a number Chinese oil executives intend to increase.
2023 年，习近平通过视频连线塔里木盆地石油工人，称赞他们为国家作出了"不可替代的贡献"。去年中国油气总产量中约 5%来自该盆地的深层油藏，中国石油高管们计划进一步提高这一比例。
As of May, PetroChina’s parent company, China National Petroleum, said it had drilled 193 wells in the Tarim Oilfield at least 5 miles deep. In the U.S., many wells are a mile or two deep.
截至五月，中国石油天然气集团公司（中石油母公司）表示已在塔里木油田钻探了 193 口深度至少达 5 英里（约 8 公里）的油井。而在美国，多数油井深度仅为 1-2 英里。
In February, the company said it completed its deepest-ever exploratory well—the Shenditake 1—at nearly 7 miles deep. State media said it is the world’s second-deepest vertical well, after a scientific well drilled by the Soviets many years ago.
今年二月，该公司宣布完成其史上最深的勘探井——深度近 7 英里（约 11.3 公里）的"深地塔科 1 井"。官方媒体报道称，这是全球第二深的垂直井，仅次于苏联多年前钻探的一口科学井。
“Advancing into the deep-Earth is the only path forward for the future development of oil and gas in our country,” said PetroChina vice president He Jiangchuan.
"向地球深部进军是我国未来油气发展的唯一出路，"中国石油副总裁何江川表示。
A sign greets workers at the gates of the drilling site. “Challenge the forbidden zone to forge the tools of a great power,” it said. “Strive to become pillars of guaranteeing energy supply.”
钻井现场大门处，一块标牌迎接着工人们。"挑战禁区，锻造大国重器"，上面写道。"争当能源保供顶梁柱"。
Grace Zhu contributed to this article.
格蕾丝·朱(Grace Zhu)对本文亦有贡献。
Write to Brian Spegele at Brian.Spegele@wsj.com
请致信布莱恩·斯佩格尔(Brian Spegele)，邮箱：Brian.Spegele@wsj.com
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