Weekly Market Pulse  每周市场脉搏

Monday, 23 June  6月23日星期一

Following the unfolding news about the conflicts in the Middle East, Bitcoin broke out of its recent compressed range to the downside, briefly reaching a low of $98K over the weekend. Spot market activity showed mild signs of stabilization, yet trading volumes remain at the lower bound of historical norms. Futures open interest dipped slightly, while funding rates remained stable, suggesting a cautious but not overly risk-averse derivatives environment. Perpetual CVD, however, turned sharply negative, indicating aggressive sell-side flows that may hint at rising fragility.
随着中东冲突消息的不断发酵，比特币突破了近期的压缩区间并开始下跌，周末一度跌至 9.8 万美元的低点。现货市场活动略有企稳迹象，但交易量仍处于历史低位。期货未平仓合约略有下降，而融资利率保持稳定，这表明衍生品市场环境谨慎，但风险规避程度并未过度。然而，永续合约 CVD（差价合约）却急剧下跌，表明卖方资金流入强劲，这可能预示着市场脆弱性正在上升。

In the options market, open interest held firm above statistical highs, reflecting sustained speculative activity. However, both volatility spread and 25-Delta Skew point to a recalibration in sentiment, less aggressive in pricing tail-risk, but still favoring calls over puts. On the ETF front, net flows remained positive though subdued, while trade volumes dipped slightly. ETF MVRV remained elevated, suggesting continued unrealized profit across institutional holdings.
在期权市场，未平仓合约坚挺于统计高点之上，反映出持续的投机活动。然而，波动率利差和 25 Delta 倾斜度均表明市场情绪正在重新调整，尾部风险定价的力度有所减弱，但看涨期权仍优于看跌期权。在 ETF 方面，净流入保持正值，但略有减弱，交易量略有下降。ETF MVRV 保持高位，表明机构持仓的未实现利润仍在持续。

Fundamentals saw a slight pullback. Active address counts contracted marginally, while on-chain volume and fee metrics remained range-bound, showing restrained user engagement. Capital Flows indicators such as Realized Cap change and Hot Capital Share showed muted improvement, with STH/LTH Supply Ratio continuing its downtrend, signaling persistent HODLing behavior.
基本面略有回落。活跃地址数量略有下降，链上交易量和费用指标仍在区间波动，表明用户参与度有所下降。实际市值变化和热门资金占比等资金流动指标略有改善，STH/LTH 供应比继续呈下降趋势，表明持币者持续持有。

Profit/Loss States metrics entered a cooling phase. Percent Supply in Profit declined to 91%, and NUPL softened notably. Although still within normal bands, this shift reflects tempered sentiment as investors reassess expectations. Realized Profit/Loss Ratio dropped sharply, suggesting a slowdown in profit-taking pressure.
盈亏状态指标进入冷却阶段。盈利供应百分比下降至91%，净盈利显著下降。尽管仍在正常区间内，但这种转变反映出投资者重新评估预期后情绪有所缓和。已实现盈亏比大幅下降，表明获利回吐压力有所放缓。

In sum, the market appears to be stepping away from its previously overheated state. Moreover, with demand already showing signs of weakness and now facing renewed uncertainty, the risk of further downside correction remains elevated. A meaningful recovery will likely require a resurgence in investor conviction and fresh inflows from both retail and institutional players.
总而言之，市场似乎正在摆脱此前的过热状态。此外，由于需求已显露出疲软迹象，且目前面临新的不确定性，进一步下行修正的风险依然较高。真正的复苏可能需要投资者信心的复苏，以及散户和机构投资者的新资金流入。

@UkuriaOC
Glassnode Analyst  Glassnode 分析师

Price Momentum  价格动量

Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI fell sharply from 51.0 to 38.3, a $25.0\mathrm{\%}$$25.0\mathrm{\%}$25.0%25.0 \% drop that brings it close to its lower statistical band at 37.0. This signals a weakening in price momentum and growing selling pressure. With the RSI near oversold territory, traders may interpret this as a potential trend reversal zone, though confirmation would require stabilization or renewed demand support.
比特币的 14 天 RSI 从 51.0 大幅下跌至 38.3，跌幅达 $25.0\mathrm{\%}$$25.0\mathrm{\%}$25.0%25.0 \% ，使其接近 37.0 的统计下限。这表明价格动能正在减弱，抛售压力正在上升。由于 RSI 接近超卖区域，交易员可能会将其解读为潜在的趋势反转区域，但确认该区域需要价格企稳或需求重新获得支撑。

Spot CVD  点 CVD

Spot CVD dropped sharply from $-\mathrm{\$}184.0\mathrm{M}$$-\mathrm{\$}184.0\mathrm{M}$-$184.0M-\$ 184.0 \mathrm{M} to $\mathrm{\$}317.8\mathrm{M}$$\mathrm{\$}317.8\mathrm{M}$$317.8M\$ 317.8 \mathrm{M}, breaching its statistical low band at $\mathrm{\$}238.8\mathrm{M}$$\mathrm{\$}238.8\mathrm{M}$$238.8M\$ 238.8 \mathrm{M}. This points to aggressive sell-side dominance in taker trades, signaling deepening bearish sentiment in spot markets. Unless buyer momentum returns, this extended negative divergence could continue to pressure prices, although such extremes may also foreshadow bottoming behavior if absorption improves.
现货 CVD 价格从 $-\mathrm{\$}184.0\mathrm{M}$$-\mathrm{\$}184.0\mathrm{M}$-$184.0M-\$ 184.0 \mathrm{M} 大幅下跌至 $\mathrm{\$}317.8\mathrm{M}$$\mathrm{\$}317.8\mathrm{M}$$317.8M\$ 317.8 \mathrm{M} ，跌破了 $\mathrm{\$}238.8\mathrm{M}$$\mathrm{\$}238.8\mathrm{M}$$238.8M\$ 238.8 \mathrm{M} 的统计低位区间。这表明卖方在吃单交易中占据主导地位，预示着现货市场的看跌情绪正在加深。除非买方势头恢复，否则这种持续的负向背离可能会继续对价格构成压力，尽管如果吸收量增加，这种极端情况也可能预示着触底反弹。

Spot Volume  现货交易量

Spot trading volume increased from $\mathrm{\$}6.5\mathrm{B}$$\mathrm{\$}6.5\mathrm{B}$$6.5B\$ 6.5 \mathrm{~B} to $\mathrm{\$}7.0\mathrm{B}$$\mathrm{\$}7.0\mathrm{B}$$7.0B\$ 7.0 \mathrm{~B}, marking an $8.2\mathrm{\%}$$8.2\mathrm{\%}$8.2%8.2 \% weekly rise. Despite this uptick, the metric remains near its historical low band, signaling persistently weak spot activity. The modest improvement hints at slightly better participation, but conviction remains low. A sustained surge in volume would be necessary to support any meaningful directional breakout in the spot market.
现货交易量从 $\mathrm{\$}6.5\mathrm{B}$$\mathrm{\$}6.5\mathrm{B}$$6.5B\$ 6.5 \mathrm{~B} 升至 $\mathrm{\$}7.0\mathrm{B}$$\mathrm{\$}7.0\mathrm{B}$$7.0B\$ 7.0 \mathrm{~B} ，周环比增长 $8.2\mathrm{\%}$$8.2\mathrm{\%}$8.2%8.2 \% 。尽管有所回升，但该指标仍接近历史低位，表明现货活动持续疲软。小幅回升暗示参与度略有改善，但市场信心仍然低迷。需要持续的成交量飙升才能支撑现货市场出现任何有意义的方向性突破。