The vulnerabilities holding back Chinese industry
制约中国工业发展的薄弱环节

In the early 1950s as the Communist party set out to rebuild a China ravaged by years of war, Mao Zedong, the revolutionary hero and party chairman, bluntly assessed the bleak state of the nation’s industry: “We can make tables and chairs, teacups and teapots . . . But we cannot make a single motor car, plane, tank or tractor.”
20 世纪 50 年代初，当共产党开始重建饱受战火摧残的中国时，革命英雄兼党主席毛泽东直率地评估了国家工业的惨淡状况："我们能造桌子椅子，能造茶碗茶壶……但是，一辆汽车、一架飞机、一辆坦克、一辆拖拉机都不能造。"

Soon the No 1 Tractor Plant and an adjacent factory producing ball bearings was established in Luoyang, an ancient city in the central Henan province — one of 156 industrial projects conceived under the party’s First Five Year Plan, according to Karina Khasnulina of Leipzig University. Just a few years later, in 1958, the first Chinese-made tractor, named Dongfang Hong, “the East is Red”, rolled off the production lines.
据莱比锡大学的卡琳娜·哈斯努琳娜介绍，不久后，第一拖拉机制造厂和一家配套生产滚珠轴承的工厂在河南省中部古城洛阳建成——这是第一个五年计划期间规划的 156 个工业项目之一。仅仅几年后的 1958 年，中国制造的第一台名为"东方红"的拖拉机驶下生产线。

Seventy years on and China has risen to be a global powerhouse, the world’s second-biggest economy and one of two true military superpowers. And yet, as the country’s leaders in Beijing are acutely aware, the nation has not been able to overcome dozens of industrial “choke points”.
七十年过去，中国已崛起为全球强国、世界第二大经济体，以及两个真正的军事超级大国之一。然而，正如北京的领导层清醒认识到的，这个国家仍未能攻克数十个工业"卡脖子"难题。

From a western standpoint, the good news is that these choke points are ultimately holding back China’s quest for independence and leave it vulnerable to US pressure in an era of trade wars and exports controls.
从西方视角来看，好消息是这些技术瓶颈最终会阻碍中国实现自主化的努力，使其在贸易战和出口管制的时代容易受到美国施压的影响。

As well as cutting edge computer chips, they also include a series of obscure components and materials that are essential building blocks of modern manufacturing.
除了尖端计算机芯片外，这些瓶颈还包括一系列鲜为人知的零部件和材料，它们都是现代制造业不可或缺的基础构件。

The bad news, for the west and its companies at least, is that China is addressing these problems in a methodical and systematic manner and is using tools such as AI to advance more quickly.
对西方及其企业而言，坏消息则是中国正在有条不紊地系统性解决这些问题，并运用人工智能等工具加速突破。

Leading European, Japanese and American rivals, which have long been insulated from competition from China because of problems with quality and inconsistent yield in Chinese factories, are now on high alert.
长期以来因中国工厂的质量问题和良率不稳定而免受竞争压力的欧美日龙头企业，如今已高度警惕。

“What should give us pause is that the dynamic of China’s technological dependency on the west is rapidly changing,” says Elisa Hörhager, the Beijing-based chief representative in China of the Federation of German Industries, known as BDI.
"真正值得我们警惕的是，中国对西方技术依赖的态势正在快速改变，"德国工业联合会(BDI)驻华首席代表何玲(Elisa Hörhager)表示。该联合会总部位于北京。

“Many foreign companies still hold a clear edge when it comes to high-quality industrial products, thanks to their reputation for precision and engineering excellence. But Chinese competitors are catching up fast.”
"在高质量工业产品方面，许多外国企业仍保持明显优势，这得益于它们在精密制造和工程工艺方面的卓越声誉。但中国竞争者正在快速追赶。"

While several choke points, such as advanced semiconductor manufacturing, remain years, if not decades, from being conquered, others appear close to being resolved. These products include carbon fibre used for aviation and ball bearings.
尽管先进半导体制造等若干瓶颈领域仍需数年乃至数十年才能攻克，但其他领域似乎已接近突破，包括航空用碳纤维和滚珠轴承等产品。

Last month, Chinese leader Xi Jinping chose the factory floor of the current iteration of the Mao-era Luoyang factory, now operated by the state-backed Luoyang Bearing Group, to issue a rallying cry for China to address any remaining potential choke points.
上月，中国国家主席习近平在洛阳轴承集团(Luoyang Bearing Group)视察时，选择在这家脱胎于毛泽东时代洛阳轴承厂的国家控股企业车间，号召中国解决所有潜在的瓶颈问题。

The visit to Luoyang by Xi, China’s most powerful leader since Mao, was both symbolic and timely.
中国自毛泽东时代以来最具权势的领导人习近平对洛阳的访问既具象征意义又恰逢其时。

Successive American presidents have steadily expanded export controls to restrict access to cutting-edge technologies, fearful that China’s technological might benefits the country’s military and threatens US national security.
由于担忧中国的技术实力会增强其军事实力并威胁美国国家安全，历任美国总统不断强化出口管制以限制尖端技术流向中国。

These controls — or the threat thereof — have driven Beijing to throw more resources into mitigating its vulnerabilities than they would have otherwise, says Kyle Chan, a researcher in Chinese industrial policy at Princeton University.
普林斯顿大学中国产业政策研究员陈凯尔指出，这些管制措施（或其潜在威胁）已促使北京投入比原本所需更多的资源来弥补技术短板。

The motivation for Xi’s quest for industrial self-sufficiency has only intensified since Donald Trump returned to the White House and launched a global trade war that threatens to accelerate the decoupling of the world’s two biggest economies.
自唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫并发动全球贸易战以来，习近平追求工业自给自足的动力愈发强烈，这场贸易战可能加速全球两大经济体的脱钩。

“From the past reliance on imported matches, soap and iron, to now becoming the world’s largest manufacturing country with the most complete industrial categories, we have taken the right path,” Xi told ball bearing engineers and technicians in Luoyang.
"从过去依赖进口火柴、肥皂和铁器，到现在成为全球工业门类最齐全的制造业第一大国，我们走对了路子，"习近平在洛阳对轴承工程师和技术人员说道。

“China must keep improving our manufacturing sector, insist on self-reliance and self-improvement [and] master key core technologies.”
"中国必须持续提升制造业水平，坚持自立自强，掌握关键核心技术。"

At a nondescript business park on the outskirts of Hangzhou, eastern China, there are signs that a quiet industrial revolution is taking place.
在中国东部杭州郊区一个不起眼的产业园里，正悄然进行着一场工业革命的迹象。

A team of Chinese engineers at DeepVision Technology is redeploying image processing technology, originally developed for gastrointestinal surgery, to solve a problem that has stubbornly thwarted Chinese engineers for decades: how to make high-quality ball bearings, and at scale.
深度视觉科技的工程师团队正在重新部署原本为胃肠外科手术开发的图像处理技术，以解决困扰中国工程师数十年的难题：如何规模化生产高质量轴承。

High-end ball bearings are crucial for reducing friction in everything from high-speed trains and tunnel boring machines to electric vehicles, humanoid robots and drones.
高端球轴承对于减少高速列车、隧道掘进机、电动汽车、人形机器人和无人机等各种设备的摩擦至关重要。

Cosimo Ries, an energy analyst with consultancy Trivium China, points out that for machinery like offshore wind turbines — which are now being built close to 200-metres tall and need to last for around 25 years — bearing manufacturers face “incredible reliability requirements” as their products must withstand “huge” amounts of weight and pressure. 
咨询公司 Trivium China 能源分析师柯西莫·里斯指出，对于如今高度接近 200 米、使用寿命需达 25 年左右的海上风力发电机这类设备而言，轴承制造商面临着"极其严苛的可靠性要求"，因为其产品必须承受"巨大"的重量和压力。

While China is by far the biggest single ball bearing market in the world, the $53bn global bearing industry is dominated by Sweden’s SKF along with Germany’s Schaeffler, US group Timken and Japanese companies NSK, NTN and JTEKT. 
中国虽然是全球最大的单一轴承市场，但 530 亿美元的全球轴承行业仍由瑞典 SKF、德国舍弗勒、美国铁姆肯以及日本公司 NSK、NTN 和捷太格特主导。

The top six manufacturers account for about 55 per cent of the global rolling bearing market, according to SKF’s annual report. Chinese groups hold about 25 per cent.
根据 SKF 年报数据，全球六大轴承制造商占据滚动轴承市场约 55%的份额，中国企业仅占 25%左右。

A 2020 study by researchers at the Wuhan University of Science and Technology noted a “significant gap” between Chinese companies and their Swedish and Japanese rivals in terms of controlling the degree of microstructural defects and dimensional accuracy. According to a research paper from Kai Yuan Securities, a Chinese investment group, published four years later, mid to high-end products still accounted for only about 20 per cent of total production among Chinese bearing manufacturers. 
武汉科技大学研究人员 2020 年的研究指出，中国企业在控制微观结构缺陷程度和尺寸精度方面与瑞典、日本竞争对手存在"显著差距"。开源证券四年后发布的研究报告显示，中国轴承制造商的中高端产品产量占比仍仅约 20%。

Sitting in an office above his factory, Wang Shuailin, the cheerful 38-year-old founder of DeepVision, sketches out a drawing of how his team combines an AI chip with image sensors to identify defects in a bearing’s shape, size and structure as small as 2 micrometres — 0.002 millimetres. 
在工厂楼上的办公室里，38 岁的深视智能创始人王帅林神采奕奕地绘制示意图，展示其团队如何将 AI 芯片与图像传感器结合，可检测小至 2 微米（0.002 毫米）的轴承形状、尺寸和结构缺陷。

DeepVision’s inspection system, Wang says, is radically improving quality control for his clients, which include Luoyang. 
王先生表示，深视智能的检测系统正为其客户（包括洛阳轴承）带来质量控制水平的飞跃提升。

People used to have the impression that Chinese products, not just limited to bearings, were cheap but lower quality . . . I don’t think there’s much difference anymore
过去人们总认为中国产品——不仅限于轴承——虽然价格低廉但质量欠佳……如今这种差距已微乎其微

One Chinese customer, he says, has seen the “qualification rate”, meaning the percentage of the ball bearings it makes that are good enough to be sold to customers, jump to 97 per cent, from below 90 per cent.
据他介绍，某中国客户的轴承产品"合格率"（即符合销售标准的轴承占比）已从不足 90%跃升至 97%。

Another would previously receive as many as 400 customer complaints about quality per year, but now receives just two or three, while its staffing requirements for inspection have fallen from 150 to just a few people.
另一家企业过去每年会收到多达 400 起关于产品质量的客户投诉，如今仅有两三起，同时其质检所需人员也从 150 人骤减至寥寥数人。

“There is a stereotype that China doesn’t have the ability to produce such high-precision machines,” Wang says.
"有一种刻板印象认为中国没有能力制造如此高精度的机器，"王先生说道。

While foreign rivals have accumulated a technological advantage over a long period of time, he believes that when it comes to introducing AI into manufacturing, which kicked off around 2017-18, everyone has been “starting from the same point”.
尽管外国竞争对手在长期发展中积累了技术优势，但他认为，在将人工智能引入制造业这一领域（大约始于 2017-18 年），所有人都是"站在同一起跑线上"。

“And China is now adopting these technologies faster, so our products will be better,” he adds.
"而且中国现在采用这些技术的速度更快，所以我们的产品将会更出色，"他补充道。

Research by China Policy, a consultancy, commissioned by BDI and published in May, showed that China’s 4mn factories are only in the early stages of seeing the impact from the kind of industrial application of AI showcased by DeepVision. But that could soon change as Beijing has set a target of having an advanced level of smart manufacturing in most big factories in the next 10 years.
德国工业联合会委托咨询公司 China Policy 于 5 月发布的研究显示，中国 400 万家工厂目前仅处于初步体验 DeepVision 所展示的工业级 AI 应用阶段。但随着中国政府设定"未来十年使多数大型工厂达到智能制造先进水平"的目标，这一现状可能很快改变。

Still, as it stands today the world’s biggest foreign ball bearing suppliers retain a significant technical advantage over China.
然而就目前而言，全球最大的外国轴承供应商仍对中国保持着显著的技术优势。

This is particularly true when producing components vital for machinery that is required to function for long durations and in extreme environments or temperatures, such as in space or chemical plants. But even the most dominant players are wary of Chinese progress.
在制造那些需在极端环境或温度下（如太空或化工厂）长时间运行的关键机械部件时，这一短板尤为明显。但即便是行业内的顶尖企业，也对中国的技术进步心存戒备。

Vivian Wang, head of marketing in China for SKF, points to the Gothenburg-headquartered group’s history of selling bearings in China, which dates back to around 1912, just as the 268-year Qing Dynasty came to an end. She notes the group’s large local footprint, which includes nine manufacturing units, 6,000 employees and a high localisation rate across its Chinese supply chain.
斯凯孚（SKF）中国区市场总监 Vivian Wang 指出，这家总部位于哥德堡的集团在中国销售轴承的历史可以追溯到 1912 年左右，当时 268 年历史的清朝刚刚结束。她强调了该集团在中国本土的广泛布局，包括 9 家制造工厂、6000 名员工以及中国供应链的高度本地化。

“We acknowledge the growing capabilities of our competitors, including those in China, but we act from a position of strength,” she says.
"我们承认包括中国企业在内的竞争对手实力不断增强，但我们是基于自身优势采取行动的，"她表示。

Sadatsune Kazama, deputy general manager of product design for bearings at Osaka-based NTN, the world’s fourth largest ball bearing manufacturer, says that Chinese groups are now on par with the industry leaders on manufacturing technology but still lag behind on design capabilities.
总部位于大阪的全球第四大滚珠轴承制造商 NTN 的产品设计副总经理镰田贞恒表示，中国企业在制造技术上已与行业领军者不相上下，但在设计能力上仍存在差距。

“People used to have the impression that Chinese products, not just limited to bearings, were cheap but lower quality . . . I don’t think there’s much difference anymore.”
"过去人们总认为中国产品——不仅限于轴承——价格低廉但质量欠佳……现在我觉得这种差距已经不明显了。"

However he says Japanese companies were still better at long-term quality, reliability and after-market support. “We’ve made bearings for 100 years and we do it based on a large amount of experience that we've built up”.
不过他表示日本企业在长期质量把控、可靠性及售后支持方面仍具优势。"我们拥有百年轴承制造历史，所有经验都建立在长期积累之上"。

A Japanese government industrial policy official, who asked not to be named, suggested that Chinese quality still needed to stand the test of time. 
一位不愿具名的日本政府产业政策官员指出，中国产品的质量仍需经受时间检验。

“It’s amazing how far China has come. But it’s not even 20 years since they started making precision technology. The goods need to last for more than 30 years, so we’ve not yet seen how durable their products are,” they say.
"中国的发展速度令人惊叹。但他们涉足精密技术制造还不到二十年。工业品需要保证三十年以上的使用寿命，所以我们尚未见证其产品的耐久性究竟如何。"该官员表示。

Over the course of 2018, Science and Technology Daily, a Chinese state-run newspaper, published a series of 35 articles outlining the country’s most acute industrial vulnerabilities.
2018 年期间，中国官方报纸《科技日报》连续刊发 35 篇系列文章，系统梳理了制约中国产业发展的最突出短板。

Ben Murphey, a former CIA linguistics expert, translated the articles at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, a research group within Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service. CSET analysts narrowed the 35 identified choke point technologies down to the 14 that had been “most vexing”.
前中情局语言专家本·墨菲为乔治城大学沃尔什外交学院下属研究机构"安全与新兴技术中心"翻译了相关文章。该中心分析师将 35 项已识别的"卡脖子"技术范围缩小至 14 项最具挑战性的领域。

These technologies, the analysts said, reflected three characteristics: the technology is the exclusive preserve of a small number of US, European or Japanese companies; few Chinese providers are making progress developing high-end versions of the technology; other unique factors making import substitution unusually difficult. They also noted that rather than acting patriotically, Chinese companies, including state-owned groups, “harbour doubts” about the quality of products from their compatriots.
分析人士指出，这些技术呈现三大特征：由少数美欧日企业独家垄断；中国供应商在高端技术研发方面进展有限；存在其他独特因素导致进口替代异常困难。他们还发现，包括国有企业在内的中国公司对国产产品质量"心存疑虑"，而非出于爱国情怀选择本土产品。

While there is evidence that China is edging closer to eliminating many of the long-held industrial choke points, the thorniest import dependencies, requiring the most investment to overcome, relate to chipmaking. 
有证据表明，中国正逐步消除许多长期存在的工业瓶颈，但最棘手、需要最大投入来克服的进口依赖问题仍集中在芯片制造领域。

According to official Chinese trade data, the value of imported photolithography machines, which are crucial for making the most advanced semiconductors, almost quadrupled to $47bn, from $12.5bn, in the past 10 years.
根据中国官方贸易数据，过去十年间，用于制造最先进半导体的关键设备——光刻机的进口额从 125 亿美元激增至 470 亿美元，增长近四倍。

Chan, the industrial policy expert at Princeton University, has analysed the S&T series and notes that while the choke points are still seen by Beijing “as a major problem”, there are “clear signs” of progress.
普林斯顿大学产业政策专家陈氏分析科技攻关系列项目时指出，尽管这些"卡脖子"技术仍被北京视为"重大问题"，但已显现出"明显突破迹象"。

Among those choke points identified in 2018 that have since been resolved are high-end radio frequency components and operating systems — technologies where Huawei has become self-sufficient — as well as lithium battery separators, where Chinese suppliers like CATL and BYD are now world leading, and lidars, the laser sensors used in self-driving cars, which are also dominated by Chinese suppliers.
2018 年清单中已实现突破的技术包括：华为实现自主可控的高端射频元件与操作系统；宁德时代、比亚迪等中企领跑全球的锂电池隔膜技术；以及中国供应商占据主导地位的自动驾驶激光雷达（Lidar）传感器技术。

Others are in the process of being mitigated. This includes vacuum evaporators, which are used to fabricate layers of organic film and metal electrodes in OLED panels, as well as photoresist material used to transfer circuit patterns for chips.
其他领域的技术短板正在逐步攻克。这包括用于制造 OLED 面板中有机薄膜和金属电极层的真空蒸镀机，以及芯片制造中用于转移电路图案的光刻胶材料。

Chan says that beyond being motivated by the threat of western export controls, the lack of access to foreign suppliers and their personnel during the pandemic was another driver that sharpened Beijing’s focus.
陈表示，除了受到西方出口管制的威胁驱动外，疫情期间无法接触外国供应商及其人员也是促使北京方面更加重视这一问题的另一动因。

But he also notes that a key dynamic holding back progress has long been from Chinese companies buying these components and materials. They have often preferred to stick with foreign suppliers, which are considered more reliable, rather than “take the leap with a less tested Chinese suppliers”.
但他也指出，长期以来阻碍进展的一个关键因素是中国企业购买这些零部件和材料的习惯。它们往往更倾向于坚持使用被认为更可靠的外国供应商，而不是"冒险尝试未经充分检验的中国供应商"。

The aerospace industry is one area we must protect and keep proprietary technologies
航空航天是必须保护并保持专有技术的领域之一

One such area is carbon fibre composite cascades, which are used in an engine’s casing to help aircraft land safely. Japanese group Nikkiso has a market share of 90 per cent.
碳纤维复合材料叶环就是这样一个领域，它用于发动机外壳以帮助飞机安全着陆。日本日机装公司在这一领域占据 90%的市场份额。

Takeshi Iwaoka, head of the aerospace division at Nikkiso, dismisses the threat from China, saying that rival companies have been trying for 40 years to catch up without success.
日本 Nikkiso 公司航空航天部门负责人岩冈武志驳斥了中国带来的威胁，称竞争对手企业 40 年来一直试图追赶却未能成功。

“The process involves laminated moulding into a complex shape, which is quite a sophisticated manufacturing method,” he says. “We have a lot of proprietary knowhow when it comes to shaping and forming this kind of product, and other companies just can’t easily replicate it.”
"这个工艺涉及将材料层压成型为复杂形状，是相当精密的制造方法，"他表示，"我们在此类产品的成型加工方面拥有大量专有技术诀窍，其他企业根本无法轻易复制。"

He notes that the Japanese government is stepping up efforts to protect its crown jewel technologies related to aerospace and other strategic sectors from industrial espionage, citing hearings on economic security conducted by the National Public Safety Commission, related to the Cabinet Office.
他指出日本政府正加强保护航空航天等战略领域的关键技术免受工业间谍侵害，并援引了隶属内阁府的国家公安委员会就经济安全举行的听证会。

“In the past, we weren’t receiving questions and inquiries from NPSC,” he said. “The aerospace industry is one area we must protect and keep proprietary technologies.”
"过去我们从未收到过国家保密局（NPSC）的问询，"他表示，"航空航天是必须保护的领域，我们要守住专有技术。"

Following the breakout success of DeepSeek — the AI developer that rocked the tech world with advances achieved with far less computing power than US rivals — there is, domestically at least, a renewed sense of confidence in China’s homegrown technological capabilities, even in the context of being cut off from US technology.
随着深度求索（DeepSeek）的横空出世——这家 AI 开发商以远低于美国竞争对手的算力实现技术突破，震撼了整个科技界——至少在国内，人们对中国自主技术能力重燃信心，即便面临美国技术封锁的背景下。

In February, Ren Zhengfei, founder of tech group Huawei, was among a select group of business leaders to meet Xi in Beijing.
今年二月，科技巨头华为创始人任正非作为少数受邀企业家代表之一，在北京受到习近平接见。

Seated opposite the Chinese leader, Ren told Xi that Huawei is spearheading a coalition of more than 2,000 companies aiming to boost Chinese semiconductor supply chain self-sufficiency to 70 per cent by 2028.
在这位中国领导人对面就座的任正非汇报称，华为正牵头组建由 2000 余家企业组成的联盟，计划到 2028 年将中国半导体供应链自给率提升至 70%。

The 80-year-old former People’s Liberation Army engineer carefully drew on Chinese homonyms as he said hitherto concerns of the country’s “lack of heart and soul” — meaning weakness in hardware and software — had eased.
这位 80 岁的前解放军工程师巧妙地运用中文谐音表示，长期以来对中国"缺芯少魂"（指硬件与软件领域的薄弱）的担忧已有所缓解。

Hörhager, China’s BDI head, says that whereas Made in China 2025 — Beijing’s 10-year manufacturing advancement plan launched in 2015 — targeted key sectors with funding and policy support, industrial AI could “go far beyond that”.
中国德国商会主席赫尔哈格指出，相较于 2015 年启动的"中国制造 2025"规划通过资金和政策支持重点产业，工业人工智能将"实现更深远突破"。

This means not just eliminating the remaining choke points but boosting productivity “across China’s entire manufacturing base”.
这不仅意味着要攻克剩余的技术瓶颈，更要"全面提升中国制造业整体生产力水平"。

Angela Huyue Zhang, a professor of law at the University of Southern California and a leading expert on China’s technology regulation and policy, cautions against viewing China’s choke point progress as a quest to be “number one” in a race against the US. 
南加州大学法学教授、中国科技监管与政策研究权威专家张湖月警告称，不应将中国在关键技术领域的突破视为一场"争当第一"的对美竞赛。

“Washington has misunderstood China’s goals; the real goal for China is to increase self-sufficiency, improve productivity, and drive economic growth — outcomes that will ultimately enhance the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist party,” she says. “Tech development is only a means to achieve these goals; it is not an end in itself.”
"华盛顿方面误解了中国的目标，中国真正的目标是提高自给自足能力、提升生产力和推动经济增长——这些成果最终将增强中国共产党的执政合法性，"她表示。"技术发展只是实现这些目标的手段，其本身并非终极目的。"

Additional reporting by Ding Wenjie and Wang Xueqiao
丁文杰和王雪乔补充报道

Data visualisation by Haohsiang Ko
数据可视化：Haohsiang Ko