India didn’t get a tariff ‘deal’ from Trump last week. That signals a real one may be near.
印度上週並未從川普那裡獲得關稅「協議」。這預示著一項真正的協議可能即將達成。

Trump has repeatedly suggested an agreement with India is close, but details are still being buttoned up. Still, former administration officials who specialize in U.S.-India relations see the lack of a letter as a good sign, saying that a missive from Trump would likely have irked the Indian government and derailed an almost-final agreement between the countries.
川普一再暗示與印度達成協議在即，但細節仍在敲定中。儘管如此，專精於美印關係的前政府官員認為，沒有收到信函是個好兆頭，他們表示，川普的信函很可能會激怒印度政府，並破壞兩國之間幾乎已敲定的協議。

“The letters are pretty aggressive and direct,” said Mark Linscott, a former negotiator for the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office who was involved in negotiations with India during Trump’s first administration. “It would probably be seen by the Indian side as a bit of a slap in the face if they were to get a letter — at least one that did not acknowledge, to some degree, the progress that’s been made.”
「這些信函都相當強硬且直接，」美國貿易代表辦公室前談判代表馬克·林斯科特（Mark Linscott）說道，他曾參與川普第一任政府期間與印度的談判。「如果印度收到信函，他們可能會覺得有點像被賞了一巴掌——至少如果信函沒有在某種程度上肯定已經取得的進展的話。」

Trump again on Tuesday teased a deal with the country, telling reporters that “we’re going to have access into India.”
川普週二再次暗示將與印度達成協議，他告訴記者：「我們將能進入印度市場。」

A spokesperson for the Indian embassy in Washington declined to comment.
印度駐華府大使館發言人拒絕置評。

India’s trade delegation, including Rajesh Agrawal, chief negotiator and special secretary in the Department of Commerce, arrived Monday in Washington for a scheduled visit that’s renewing hopes that a deal is imminent. India is the largest U.S. trading partner facing Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs that did not receive a letter; the European Union, South Korea, Japan, Canada and Mexico all received threats from Trump warning of tariffs between 25 and 35 percent starting Aug. 1.
印度貿易代表團，包括首席談判代表兼商務部特別秘書拉傑什·阿格拉瓦爾（Rajesh Agrawal），於週一抵達華盛頓進行預定訪問，這再次燃起了人們對即將達成協議的希望。印度是美國最大的貿易夥伴，面臨川普所謂的「對等關稅」，但卻沒有收到信函；歐盟、韓國、日本、加拿大和墨西哥都收到了川普的威脅，警告將從 8 月 1 日起徵收 25%至 35%的關稅。

The flurry of trade talks come at a delicate time for the U.S. economy, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics announcing Tuesday that the Consumer Price Index rose 2.7 percent in June from a year ago, up from 2.4 percent in May. The latest data renewed fears that Trump’s higher tariffs are indeed raising prices — as many economists have warned — and highlighted concerns from the business community that trade uncertainty was having deleterious effects on the broader economy.
這些密集的貿易談判，正值美國經濟的敏感時刻。勞工統計局週二公布，六月份消費者物價指數較去年同期上漲 2.7%，高於五月份的 2.4%。最新數據再次引發擔憂，認為川普提高關稅確實導致物價上漲——正如許多經濟學家所警告的——並凸顯了商界對貿易不確定性對整體經濟造成有害影響的憂慮。

Even as Trump has set Aug. 1 as his new deadline to impose steep new tariffs on dozens of countries, with the goal of fixing trade imbalances, he’s also threatening new and unrelated tariffs that could further complicate trade talks.
即使川普已將 8 月 1 日訂為對數十個國家實施新一輪高額關稅的新期限，目標是解決貿易逆差，他同時也威脅要實施新的、不相關的關稅，這可能會使貿易談判更加複雜。

Trump has been particularly frustrated with a group of emerging market nations, known as BRICS, which includes India. The president is threatening a 50 percent tariff on Brazil in part because of recent efforts from the bloc to move away from the dollar as the international standard, along with a 10 percent levy on all BRICS member nations. He’s also threatening a 100 percent tariff on nations that purchase oil and gas from Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine; India is the second-largest purchaser of fossil fuels from Russia.
川普對包括印度在內的金磚國家（BRICS）等新興市場國家尤其感到不滿。他威脅要對巴西課徵 50%的關稅，部分原因在於該集團近期試圖擺脫美元作為國際標準的地位，同時也將對所有金磚國家成員課徵 10%的關稅。此外，他還威脅將對在烏克蘭戰爭期間向俄羅斯購買石油和天然氣的國家課徵 100%的關稅；而印度是俄羅斯化石燃料的第二大買家。

Whatever agreement is announced between India and the U.S., it is expected to be only the first phase of a trade deal, with a more robust and comprehensive agreement to come in the fall. And in Trump’s Washington, no deal is done until the president says it is, as his last-minute intervention in a recent “deal” reached with Vietnam made clear.
印度與美國之間無論宣布任何協議，預計都將只是貿易協議的第一階段，更為健全和全面的協議將於秋季達成。而在川普主政的華府，除非總統親口宣布，否則任何協議都不能算數，他最近對與越南達成的一項「協議」所做的最後一刻干預，就清楚說明了這一點。

“This is Trump,” said Lisa Curtis, deputy assistant to the president and senior director for South and Central Asia on the National Security Council during the first Trump administration. “Until everything is signed, sealed, and delivered, there’s going to be a certain amount of nervousness.”
「這就是川普，」在川普第一任政府時期擔任總統副助理兼國家安全會議南亞與中亞事務資深主任的麗莎·柯提斯（Lisa Curtis）表示，「在一切塵埃落定、簽署完成之前，總會存在一定程度的緊張情緒。」

A White House official, granted anonymity to share the administration’s plans, confirmed that no more tariff letters to countries were in the works as of Tuesday, though they added that it’s a “fluid situation.”
一位不願具名的白宮官員證實，截至週二，美國政府沒有再向其他國家發出關稅信函，但他們補充說，這是一個「瞬息萬變的情況」。

India was one of the first countries to begin trade negotiations with the U.S., launching talks in February as Trump began to unveil his ambitious agenda to remake global trade. Trump has teased a deal with the country since late June, though his repeated talk about brokering peace between India and Pakistan this spring has complicated U.S.-India relations and may make it harder for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to sell the deal domestically.
印度是首批與美國展開貿易談判的國家之一，雙方於二月啟動會談，當時川普正開始揭示他雄心勃勃的全球貿易重塑議程。川普自六月下旬以來便不斷預告將與印度達成協議，儘管他今年春天屢次提及促成印巴和平的言論，已使美印關係複雜化，並可能讓印度總理莫迪更難在國內推銷這項協議。

Trump has come close before. During his first term, the U.S. worked to secure a bilateral trade deal with India — similar to agreements the administration negotiated with Japan and South Korea — but the deal fell apart amid disagreements over how to handle agricultural disputes and other tension points.
川普以前也曾接近達成協議。在他第一個任期內，美國曾努力與印度達成雙邊貿易協議，類似於川普政府與日本和韓國談判的協議，但由於在如何處理農業爭端和其他緊張點上存在分歧，該協議最終破局。

“India has put a heck of a lot on the table, particularly with respect to tariffs,” Linscott added.
「印度已經提出了許多條件，特別是在關稅方面，」林史考特補充道。

Taiwan and Switzerland, two other countries that do substantial trade with the U.S. and did not receive letters, are also in negotiations hoping to stave off both high “reciprocal” tariffs and tariffs on important sectors, like the semiconductor industry in Taiwan and the pharmaceutical industry in Switzerland. Companies from both countries have made major foreign direct investments in the U.S., including TSMC’s $165 billion investment semiconductor manufacturing in Arizona.
台灣和瑞士這兩個與美國有大量貿易往來，卻未收到信函的國家，也正在進行談判，希望能避免高額的「對等」關稅，以及針對重要產業（例如台灣的半導體產業和瑞士的製藥產業）課徵關稅。這兩個國家的公司都已在美國進行了大量的海外直接投資，其中包括台積電在亞利桑那州投資 1,650 億美元的半導體製造廠。

The list of three dozen countries that didn’t get letters also includes a number of small countries that do only limited trade with the U.S. — but still face massive tariff increases, in some cases. While Trump’s initial round of letters scaled down the highest tariff rates on trading partners like Cambodia and Laos, it’s unclear if Trump will do the same with countries like Madagascar (47 percent), Mauritius (40 percent), or Lesotho, which is currently facing a 50 percent rate, the same as the punitive tariff Trump has threatened to impose on Brazil.
除了印度以外，還有三十多個國家沒有收到信函，其中也包括一些與美國貿易量有限的小國，但這些國家在某些情況下仍面臨巨額關稅上漲。雖然川普最初的信函降低了柬埔寨和寮國等貿易夥伴的最高關稅稅率，但目前尚不清楚川普是否會對馬達加斯加（47%）、模里西斯（40%）或賴索托等國家採取同樣的做法，賴索托目前面臨 50%的關稅稅率，與川普威脅要對巴西徵收的懲罰性關稅相同。

An official from Paraguay described it as a “relief” that the country didn’t receive a letter last week. Still, the official said it wasn’t clear to them why their country hadn’t received one and other countries had.
巴拉圭一位官員形容，該國上週沒有收到信函，讓他們「鬆了一口氣」。不過，這位官員也表示，他們不清楚為何其他國家都收到了，唯獨他們沒有。

“There is no pattern still,” the official said. “All those countries have been involved in trade talks and controversies with the USA.”
「目前還沒有任何規律可循，」這位官員說。「所有這些國家都曾與美國捲入貿易談判和爭議。」

“It is bad for everyone. We worked hard for so many years to have a trading system predictable and rules based,” the official added. “This is the opposite.”
「這對每個人都不好。我們努力了這麼多年，才建立起一個可預測、有規則的貿易體系，」這位官員補充道，「而這卻恰恰相反。」

Daniel Desrochers contributed to this report.
Daniel Desrochers 亦有貢獻此報導。