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Trump Softens Tone on China to Secure Xi Summit and a Trade Deal
特朗普软化对华立场,以确保与习近平举行会晤并达成贸易协议

US President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in 2017. 

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

2017 年,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在北京人民大会堂举行的新闻发布会上发表讲话。

摄影:沈其来/彭博社

Takeaways   总结

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President Donald Trump has dialed down his confrontational tone with China in an effort to secure a summit with counterpart Xi Jinping and a trade deal with the world’s second-largest economy, people familiar with internal deliberations said.
知情人士透露,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已经缓和了与中国的对抗语气,以确保与中国国家主席习近平举行峰会并与世界第二大经济体达成贸易协议。

Six months into his second term, Trump has softened his harsh campaign rhetoric that focused on the US’s massive trade deficit with China and resulting job losses. The warmer posture contrasts with his threats against other trading partners to ravage their economies with crushing tariffs.
特朗普第二任期已过六个月,其竞选口号已有所软化,不再强调美国对华巨额贸易逆差及其造成的失业问题。这种缓和的姿态与他威胁其他贸易伙伴将以高额关税重创其经济的立场形成鲜明对比。

Trump is now focused on cutting purchase deals with Beijing — similar to one he forged during his first term — and celebrating quick wins instead of addressing root causes of the trade imbalances. China posted a record trade surplus in the first half of the year amid booming exports.
特朗普如今专注于与北京达成类似他第一任期内达成的采购协议,并追求速效成果,而非解决贸易失衡的根本原因。今年上半年,中国出口蓬勃发展, 贸易顺差创历史新高。

On Tuesday, the US president said he would be fighting China “in a very friendly fashion.”
周二,美国总统表示,他将“以非常友好的方式”与中国展开斗争。

In meetings with his staff, Trump is often the least hawkish voice in the room, some of the people said.
一些人说,在与员工的会议中,特朗普往往是房间里最不鹰派的声音。

Administration officials stressed that Trump has always liked Xi personally and pointed to moments in his first term when he nevertheless imposed sweeping restrictions on Huawei Technologies Co. and tariffs on the majority of Chinese exports.
政府官员强调,特朗普一直很喜欢习近平,并指出特朗普在第一个任期内曾对华为技术有限公司实施全面限制,并对大多数中国出口产品征收关税。

Read more: Tracking Every Trump Tariff and Its Economic Effect
阅读更多: 追踪特朗普的每一项关税及其经济影响

Trump’s fluid playbook and his departure from promised hawkish policies have worried policymakers inside his administration as well as outside advisers, the people said. This week only exacerbated concerns that previous US red lines with China are now negotiable.
知情人士称,特朗普反复无常的策略以及他背弃承诺的强硬政策,令其政府内部决策者以及外部顾问感到担忧。本周,人们更加担心美国此前与中国划定的红线如今已可以谈判。

Allowing Nvidia Corp. to sell its China-focused, less-advanced H20 chip once again — something multiple senior officials had said was not on the table — reversed the administration’s own stated approach of keeping the most critical American technologies out of Beijing’s hands.
再次允许英伟达公司出售其专注于中国市场、技术水平较低的 H20 芯片(此前多位高级官员曾表示不会考虑这一问题)颠覆了政府自己宣称的将最关键的美国技术排除在北京手中的方针。

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last month cited H20 controls as evidence of the administration’s toughness on China when pressed by senators who worried the US could trade advanced semiconductors for the Asian country’s rare-earth minerals.
上个月,美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特 (Scott Bessent) 在参议员们的追问下,援引了水管控措施,以此作为政府对中国强硬态度的证据,因为参议员们担心美国可能会用先进的半导体来交换这个亚洲国家的稀土矿物。

While the US will still require approval for such exports — a restriction former President Joe Biden declined to impose — some Trump officials have privately objected to granting licenses they say will only embolden China’s tech champions, the people said.
知情人士表示,尽管美国仍要求对此类出口进行批准——前总统乔·拜登拒绝实施这一限制——但一些特朗普政府官员私下反对颁发许可证,称这只会助长中国科技领军企业的气焰。

Others have argued successfully that allowing Nvidia to compete with Huawei on its own turf is essential to winning the AI race with China. That view, championed by Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang, has gained traction inside the administration, people familiar with the matter said.
其他人则成功地辩称,允许英伟达在自己的地盘上与华为竞争,对于赢得与中国的人工智能竞赛至关重要。知情人士表示,英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋所倡导的这种观点在政府内部获得了支持。

‘Productive’ Talks  “富有成效”的会谈

Trump has the final say in all trade decisions, an administration spokesman said. The president has “consistently fought to level the playing field for American workers and industries, and the Administration continues to have productive discussions with all of our trading partners,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said.
一位政府发言人表示,特朗普对所有贸易决策拥有最终决定权。白宫发言人库什·德赛表示,总统“一直致力于为美国工人和产业创造公平的竞争环境,政府也持续与我们所有的贸易伙伴进行富有成效的讨论”。

Read More: Trump AI Czar David Sacks Defends Reversal of China Chip Curbs
阅读更多: 特朗普人工智能主管戴维·萨克斯为撤销对华芯片限制进行辩护

In a further effort to ease tensions, US officials are preparing to delay an Aug. 12 deadline when US tariffs on China are set to snap back to 145% after the expiration of a 90-day truce. Bessent signaled in a Bloomberg Television interview this week that the deadline was flexible.
为了进一步缓解紧张局势,美国官员正准备推迟 8 月 12 日的最后期限,届时美国对华关税将在 90 天休战期结束后迅速恢复至 145%。贝森特本周在接受彭博电视采访时暗示,该最后期限是灵活的。

One person familiar with the plans said the tariff truce could be extended another three months. This comes as Trump is rolling out duties for other countries — including key allies — and threatening more actions on industries including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
一位知情人士表示,关税休战期可能会再延长三个月。与此同时,特朗普正在对其他国家(包括其主要盟友)加征关税,并威胁对制药和半导体等行业采取更多行动。

Last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a summit between Trump and Xi is likely. Rubio, once among the staunchest China hawks in the Senate, said he had a “very constructive and positive” sit-down Friday with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
上周,美国国务卿马尔科·卢比奥表示,特朗普和习近平可能会举行峰会。曾是参议院最坚定的对华鹰派人士之一的卢比奥表示,他周五与中国外交部长王毅进行了“非常建设性和积极”的会谈。

Some administration officials, meanwhile, are focused on getting China to agree to purchase some volume of to-be-determined US goods and services, people familiar with the matter said. That could satisfy Trump’s concerns about the trade deficit but won’t do much to close the yawning trade gap over the longer term.
与此同时,知情人士透露,一些政府官员正致力于让中国同意购买一定数量的美国商品和服务(数量尚待确定)。这或许能缓解特朗普对贸易逆差的担忧,但从长远来看,对缩小不断扩大的贸易逆差作用不大。

Read More: Rubio Says Xi-Trump Summit Likely After Meeting China Envoy
阅读更多: 卢比奥会见中国特使后表示习特峰会可能举行

Trump’s gentler handling of China is causing a rift among his advisers. Some members of his trade team want to hold a tough line against Beijing and have promised privately that export controls would never be part of trade discussions, people familiar with their deliberations said.
特朗普对华态度的温和化,导致其顾问团队内部出现分歧。据知情人士透露,特朗普贸易团队的一些成员希望对北京采取强硬立场,并私下承诺,出口管制永远不会成为贸易谈判的内容。

Yet during last month’s trade talks in London, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick openly said that recent export controls — officially justified on the basis of national security — were also designed to “annoy” Beijing. And this week, he — along with Bessent and White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks — said plainly that allowing some less-advanced Nvidia chip sales to China is indeed part of ongoing trade negotiations.
然而,在上个月于伦敦举行的贸易谈判中,美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克公开表示,最近的出口管制——官方解释为以国家安全为由——也是为了“惹恼”北京。本周,他与贝森特以及白宫人工智能和加密货币事务负责人大卫·萨克斯一起直言,允许部分不太先进的英伟达芯片向中国销售确实是正在进行的贸易谈判的一部分。

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How the world feeds itself in a changing economy and climate, from farming to supply chains to consumer trends.
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How the world feeds itself in a changing economy and climate, from farming to supply chains to consumer trends.
从农业到供应链再到消费趋势,世界如何在不断变化的经济和气候中养活自己。

This development is raising questions about how far Trump would go in negotiating away national security actions if the Chinese demanded it. Some hawkish advisers fear that a further rollback of chip controls is now inevitable, people familiar with the matter said. Others have maintained that allowing sales of H20s — which are far less capable than Nvidia’s best models — is a far cry from exporting that leading-edge hardware, which they say is not up for discussion.
这一进展引发了人们的疑问:如果中国要求,特朗普会在多大程度上通过谈判来避免国家安全行动。知情人士称,一些鹰派顾问担心,芯片控制权的进一步放松已不可避免。另一些人则认为,允许销售性能远逊于英伟达最佳型号的 H20 芯片,与出口尖端硬件相去甚远,他们认为,出口尖端硬件并非讨论的议题。

“You want to sell the Chinese enough that their developers get addicted to the American technology stack,” Lutnick said Tuesday on CNBC.
卢特尼克周二在 CNBC 上表示:“你希望向中国市场销售足够多的产品,让他们的开发人员对美国的技术栈上瘾。”

Read More: US Makes Export Controls Negotiable as Part of China Trade Talks
阅读更多: 美国将出口管制作为中美贸易谈判的一部分进行谈判

Closely watching the situation are allies and companies across Europe and Asia whose help the US wants to squeeze China’s tech sector. Government and industry officials in those regions have gotten the message that Washington’s strategy is subject to change, people familiar with the matter said.
欧洲和亚洲的盟友和企业正密切关注局势,美国希望借助这些盟友和企业来挤压中国的科技行业。知情人士表示,这些地区的政府和行业官员已经收到这样的信息:华盛顿的战略可能会发生变化。

A half-dozen tech industry officials who’ve interacted with Trump’s team on China said they often leave meetings wanting details only to see core goals evolve in later discussions.
曾与特朗普团队就中国问题进行过互动的六位科技行业官员表示,他们经常在会议结束后询问细节,结果却发现核心目标在随后的讨论中发生了变化。

Surprise Reversals  意外逆转

In many cases, those in charge of China tech policy have made decisions without involving offices that historically have played a role. Restrictions imposed in May on sales of chip design software to China — which have since been reversed — were part of a raft of Commerce Department measures that came as a surprise to many within the administration, Bloomberg has reported.
在许多情况下,负责中国科技政策的官员在做出决定时并没有让那些历史上曾参与其中的部门参与。 据彭博社报道 ,美国商务部于 5 月份对向中国销售芯片设计软件实施的限制(该限制后来已被撤销)是一系列令政府内部许多人感到意外的举措之一。

The decision on H20 chips was also tightly held, people familiar with the matter said. Other actions that have been under consideration for months — including sanctions on Chinese chip giants and an effort to slap curbs on Chinese tech subsidiaries — have been delayed as officials pursue a trade deal.
知情人士称,关于 H20 芯片的决定也非常谨慎。其他已考虑数月的行动——包括对中国芯片巨头的制裁以及对中国科技子公司实施限制——因官员们寻求达成贸易协议而被推迟。

But Trump is also known for reversing course on China often and sometimes quickly after taking a position — as was the case when he fulfilled Xi’s personal request to lift sanctions on Chinese telecom giant ZTE Corp. in 2018.
但特朗普也因经常改变对华立场而闻名,有时在表明立场后会迅速改变立场——例如,2018 年,他应习近平的个人请求,解除了对中国电信巨头中兴通讯的制裁。

He’s also susceptible to criticism of his approach, which might indicate Trump could change his tone yet again.
他的作风也容易受到批评,这可能表明特朗普可能会再次改变他的语气。

“President Trump is set on a China deal, but it may be short-lived,” said Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute. “The US trade deficit is well higher to date this year and the new budget will boost demand for imports in the fourth quarter. If a record 2025 trade deficit gets reported, all bets are off, including with China.”
“特朗普总统决心与中国达成协议,但这可能是短暂的,”美国企业研究所中国问题专家德里克·史剑道表示。“今年迄今为止,美国的贸易逆差大幅上升,而新的预算将提振第四季度的进口需求。如果2025年的贸易逆差创下纪录,那么所有赌注都将被取消,包括对中国的赌注。”

Read More: Why Rare Earths Are China’s Trump Card in Trade War: QuickTake
阅读更多: 稀土为何是中国在贸易战中的王牌:QuickTake

Beijing has made no secret it believes it has the upper hand. In London, US officials were taken aback by their Chinese counterparts’ gloating over the position they find themselves in, people familiar with the exchange said.
北京毫不掩饰其认为自己占据上风。知情人士透露,在伦敦,美国官员对中国同行对自己所处地位的沾沾自喜感到吃惊。

The Asian country’s leverage stems from its grip on rare earth magnets and its ability to weaponize America’s dependence on those supplies. China now requires companies to hand over sensitive data and reapply for rare-earth export licenses every six months.
这个亚洲国家的影响力源于其对稀土磁铁的掌控,以及其将美国对这些供应的依赖武器化的能力。中国现在要求企业每六个月上交敏感数据并重新申请稀土出口许可证。

    — With assistance from Jordan Fabian and Catherine Lucey
    — 在 Jordan Fabian 和 Catherine Lucey 的协助下

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