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Dollar Despised — But No New Lows in a Week
美元被轻视——但一周内未创新低

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by The Market Ear  作者:THE MARKET EAR
Monday, Jul 07, 2025 - 20:13
2025 年 7 月 7 日,星期一 - 20:13

Awful  糟糕

H1 dollar performance for the modern days record books.
上半年美元表现载入现代记录册。

Source: DB  来源:DB

 

Trying  尝试中

DXY getting very tight inside that falling wedge like formation. Psychology is getting interesting here, everybody hates the dollar, but it hasn't traded lower in a week...
DXY 在那个下跌楔形内变得非常紧凑。心理层面变得有趣,大家都讨厌美元,但它已经一周没有下跌了……

Source: LSEG Workspace  来源:LSEG Workspace

 

The shorty  空头

Hedge funds keep pressing the dollar short...
对冲基金持续加大美元空头押注……

Source: JPM  来源:JPM

 

Hate is huge  仇恨情绪巨大

CTAs are running big dollar shorts.
CTA 正在大规模做空美元。

Source: DB  来源:DB

 

Way below it  远低于此

DXY trading way below the 200 day. Note that the longer term moving average has basically been flat for years, and such big "dislocations" from it slowly start awakening the mean reversion mind...
DXY 远低于 200 日均线交易。请注意,长期移动平均线基本上多年来一直保持平稳,而如此大的“偏离”开始慢慢唤醒均值回归的思维……

Source: LSEG Workspace  来源:LSEG Workspace

 

Extreme  极端

The DXY has not traded this much below its 200 day moving average since 2004.
DXY 自 2004 年以来,尚未如此大幅低于其 200 日移动平均线交易。

Source: Bloomberg/Authers

 

Little catch up

Citi US economic surprise index catching up a bit to the European version.

Source: LSEG Workspace

 

Surprises vs FX

Noteworthy short term gap between the CESI US-EU spread vs the Euro (inverted).

Source: LSEG Workspace

 

Sustainable?

Is Euro's steep trend line sustainable? First support comes in at 1.17, followed by the 21 day at 1.16 ish. Note the early negative RSI divergence.

Source: LSEG Workspace
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