Executive Summary 执行摘要
As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) strengthens its regime and pursues global dominance, it faces significant and complex structural challenges. Domestically, Chinese economic growth is declining drastically under misguided policies while an aging population and declining birth rates affect the country’s labor supply, consumption, and social security system. The housing market is in crisis as millions of apartments remain unsold and real estate developers go bankrupt, and high youth unemployment creates further instability. Political corruption in the CCP, bureaucratic inefficiency, and other waste also hinder economic progress and public trust.
中国共产党（CCP）在巩固其政权并寻求全球主导地位的同时，也面临着严峻而复杂的结构性挑战。在国内，由于政策失误，中国经济增长急剧下滑，而人口老龄化和出生率下降则影响着中国的劳动力供应、消费和社会保障体系。房地产市场陷入危机，数百万套公寓滞销，房地产开发商破产，高企的青年失业率进一步加剧了不稳定。中共内部的政治腐败、官僚效率低下以及其他浪费也阻碍了经济进步和公众信任。
Internationally, trade tensions with the United States and other Western nations threaten exports and foreign direct investment. And Beijing’s coercive policies complicate relations with the Global South, where countries often owe debt to China. Diplomats and other officials at international organizations are increasingly skeptical of the China’s global influence, making foreign policy more difficult.
在国际上，与美国及其他西方国家的贸易紧张关系威胁着出口和外国直接投资。北京的胁迫性政策使与全球南方国家的关系复杂化，这些国家往往对中国负有债务。国际组织的外交官和其他官员对中国日益增长的全球影响力持怀疑态度，这使得外交政策更加困难。
While the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has weathered crises before, a sudden regime collapse in China is not entirely unthinkable. Policymakers need to consider what might happen and what steps they would have to take if the world’s longest-ruling Communist dictatorship and second-largest economy collapses due to its domestic and international troubles.
尽管中华人民共和国（PRC）此前曾经历过危机，但中国政权突然崩溃并非完全不可想象。政策制定者需要考虑，如果这个世界上执政时间最长的共产主义独裁政权和第二大经济体因其国内和国际问题而崩溃，可能会发生什么，以及他们将不得不采取哪些措施。
With chapters written by experts in military affairs, intelligence, economics, human rights, transitional justice, and constitutional governance, this report examines the initial steps that should be taken in the immediate aftermath of the CCP regime’s collapse and the long-term trajectory China might take after a stabilization period. Drawing on historical analysis, strategic foresight, and domain-specific expertise, this anthology describes these challenges as an exercise in possibilities. The different chapters explore how a single-party system collapses in key sectors of the country and how political institutions transform, as well as China’s unique political, economic, and social situation. Taken together, they assess the daunting tasks of stabilizing a long-repressed country after it has collapsed, in addition to the forces shaping China’s future. In so doing, the authors hope to offer policy recommendations for managing the risks and opportunities of a transition.
本报告由军事、情报、经济、人权、转型正义和宪政治理领域的专家撰写，探讨了中共政权崩溃后应立即采取的初步措施，以及中国在稳定期后可能采取的长期发展轨迹。本报告借鉴历史分析、战略预见和特定领域专业知识，将这些挑战描述为一次可能性探索。不同的章节探讨了单一政党制度如何在国家关键部门崩溃以及政治机构如何转型，以及中国独特的政治、经济和社会状况。总而言之，它们评估了在长期受压制的国家崩溃后稳定该国的艰巨任务，以及塑造中国未来的力量。通过这样做，作者希望为管理转型中的风险和机遇提供政策建议。
The chapter “OSS in China Again: The Role of US Special Operations Forces after CCP Collapse,” written by an author outside Hudson Institute, describes US operations in China during World War II and suggests that US special operations forces (SOF) can help stabilize a post-CCP China. It envisions SOF aiding provisional authorities, protecting critical infrastructure, and facilitating the peaceful emergence of a new government while working “by, with, and through” local actors. The chapter also underscores the cultural importance of narratives, historical memory, and symbolic legitimacy in a post-Communist transition.
由哈德逊研究所之外的作者撰写的章节“战略情报局（OSS）再入中国：中共崩溃后美国特种作战部队的作用”描述了二战期间美国在中国的行动，并提出美国特种作战部队（SOF）可以帮助稳定后中共时代的中国。它设想特种作战部队协助临时当局，保护关键基础设施，并促进新政府的和平出现，同时“通过、与、和通过”当地行动者开展工作。该章节还强调了叙事、历史记忆和象征性合法性在后共产主义转型中的文化重要性。
In the second chapter, “Targeting Bioweapons Facilities with Precision after a CCP Regime Collapse,” Ryan Clarke assesses the CCP’s bioweapons infrastructure and warns that the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) dual-use biological research poses a strategic threat. He outlines three options for neutralizing bioweapons labs, with an emphasis on simultaneous operations, control of facility perimeters, and safe extraction or destruction of hazardous materials. The chapter argues for completely disabling the programs to prevent proliferation and catastrophe.
在第二章“中共政权崩溃后精确打击生物武器设施”中，瑞安·克拉克评估了中共的生物武器基础设施，并警告说，中国人民解放军（PLA）的双用途生物研究构成战略威胁。他概述了中和生物武器实验室的三种选择，重点是同时行动、控制设施周边以及安全提取或销毁危险材料。该章节主张彻底禁用这些项目，以防止扩散和灾难。
Clarke then advocates for overhauling the Chinese economy by recapitalizing the country while a new government repudiates illegitimate debts, privatizes state assets, and implements decentralization in “Restructuring the Chinese Financial System after CCP Collapse.” He emphasizes that CCP policies have constrained China’s economic potential and argues that a liberalized financial architecture is essential for both domestic prosperity and integration with global markets.
克拉克随后在《中共垮台后重组中国金融体系》一文中倡导对中国经济进行改革，通过对国家进行资本重组，同时新政府拒绝不合法债务，将国有资产私有化，并实施权力下放。他强调，中共的政策限制了中国的经济潜力，并认为自由化的金融架构对于国内繁荣和融入全球市场都至关重要。
In the chapter “Securing China’s Assets in America,” Gordon G. Chang advises Washington to “get American businesses and citizens out of China” and to remove PRC entities from important sectors of the US economy. It highlights vulnerabilities of engaging with Beijing and describes what America should do with PRC assets in the US.
在《确保中国在美资产安全》一章中，章家敦建议华盛顿“让美国企业和公民撤出中国”，并将中国实体从美国经济的重要部门中移除。该章强调了与北京接触的脆弱性，并描述了美国应如何处理中国在美资产。
Rick Fisher in “Securing and Restructuring the PLA, PAP, and People’s Militia” outlines a post-CCP demobilization and professionalization plan for China’s vast security apparatus. It recommends retaining a leaner, more accountable military force focused on national defense and disaster relief while disbanding units associated with political repression. A Chinese military force without hegemonic ambitions can then help a new government integrate into peacekeeping operations and space exploration partnerships.
里克·费舍尔在《确保和重组解放军、武警部队和人民民兵》一文中，概述了中共垮台后中国庞大安全机构的复员和专业化计划。他建议保留一支更精简、更负责任的军事力量，专注于国防和救灾，同时解散与政治镇压相关的部队。一支没有霸权野心的中国军事力量可以帮助新政府融入维和行动和太空探索伙伴关系。
The chapter “Spy Versus Spy Versus Spies: The CCP’s Security and Espionage Apparatus in the Absence of Central Authority” explores the potential fragmentation of the Ministry of State Security (MSS) and local Public Security Bureaus (PSBs). It draws lessons from European political transitions, particularly in dismantling secret police networks and opening archives for public scrutiny.
《间谍对间谍对间谍：中央权力缺失下中共的安全和间谍机构》一章探讨了国家安全部（MSS）和地方公安局（PSBs）可能出现的碎片化。它借鉴了欧洲政治转型的经验，特别是在解散秘密警察网络和开放档案供公众审查方面的经验。
In “China’s Autonomous Regions and Human Rights,” Nina Shea discusses the importance of protecting human rights during a transitional period. According to her, the US should intervene to prevent ethnic violence, civil wars, and political retribution, with a special focus on China’s five autonomous regions— Guangxi, Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia. She also highlights the need for measures to alleviate the grievances of other groups, including religious minorities like Christians and the Falun Gong.
在《中国的自治区与人权》一书中，尼娜·谢伊探讨了转型时期保护人权的重要性。她认为，美国应介入以防止民族暴力、内战和政治报复，并特别关注中国的五个自治区——广西、新疆、西藏、内蒙古和宁夏。她还强调，需要采取措施来缓解其他群体的怨恨，包括基督徒和法轮功等宗教少数群体。
The author of “How to Initiate a Truth and Reconciliation Process in China” describes how China can only move beyond past evils through the investigation and public disclosure of those crimes. The chapter recommends establishing a national truth and reconciliation commission modeled after South Africa’s, and argues that peacefully transitioning to democracy will be difficult without forgiveness and reconciliation.
“如何在华启动真相与和解进程”一章的作者指出，中国只有通过调查和公开披露过去的罪行，才能摆脱过去的邪恶。该章建议效仿南非，成立一个全国性的真相与和解委员会，并认为如果没有宽恕与和解，和平过渡到民主将是困难的。
The final chapter, “A Constitutional Convention Plan,” focuses on how a post-Communist China can establish a constitutional democracy and draft a new constitution. It addresses how a constitutional convention would work, whether the boundaries of certain regions should be redrawn, how China’s relationship with Taiwan should change, and what the new country’s name should be.
最后一章“制宪会议计划”着重探讨了后共产主义中国如何建立宪政民主和起草新宪法。它讨论了制宪会议将如何运作，某些地区的边界是否应重新划定，中国与台湾的关系应如何改变，以及新国家的名称应是什么。