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Wilson Lai
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Research & Insights

Equity Research

After a decade of US-led dominance, the case for diversification is back. The extraordinary outperformance of US equities—driven by mega-cap tech, a strong dollar, and superior fundamentals—has reached a turning point. Valuation spreads between the US and the rest of the world are at historical highs, and market concentration has intensified, leaving portfolios exposed to a narrow set of risks. We highlight opportunities across geographies, styles, and size segments.

25 Jun 2025 | 12:00pm| 16pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Peter Oppenheimer and others

We analyzed the earnings day moves of the 491 S&P 500 stocks that have reported so far this earnings season and compared them with the past 18 years. As earnings season draws to a close, we find volatility declined this quarter and was well below heightened expectations heading into earnings. The average stock moved +/-4.4% on earnings day, higher than the long-term average but lower than options-implied moves of +/- 7.1%.

25 Jun 2025 | 5:01pm| 12pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and others

IN THE SPOTLIGHT

TSMC (2330.TW): Growth outlook further reinforced by easing concern on AI order cuts and growing CoWoS adoption; reiterate Buy (on CL); TP to NT$1,210

We are raising our earnings forecast for TSMC by 2-6% for 2025-2027E as we raise our 1) wafer revenue forecast for 3nm/5nm, partially to factor in our easing concern over further AI order cuts, and 2) CoWoS (chip on wafer on substrate) forecast, driven by more customer adoption.

25 Jun 2025 | Research | Equity - Bruce Lu and others

Taiwan Semiconductors: Advanced packaging to embark on its next frontier; initiate All Ring/GPTC at Buy; TP NT$550/NT$2,000

The semiconductor packaging landscape is undergoing a new era of fundamental transformation. As traditional Moore's Law slows, the spotlight has shifted towards advanced packaging as the critical enabler of continued performance gains and heterogeneous integration. Not only is AI driving the adoption of advanced packaging, but we also see increasing demand in chiplet designs to further proliferate into non-AI segments starting late 2025, supporting a more sustained and diversified demand growth onward. This shift creates a compelling opportunity for local leading back-end equipment vendors in our view; we therefore initiate All Ring (6187.TWO) and GPTC (3131.TWO) with Buy ratings and 12m TPs of NT$550/NT$2,000, representing c.37%/25% upsides.

25 Jun 2025 | Research | Equity - Evelyn Yu and others

Also see: Aspeed (5274.TWO): Strength to further persist into 3Q25; reiterate Buy with TP up to NT$6,000

Bruce Lu
Asia Pacific Technology | Taipei
Evelyn Yu
Asia Pacific Technology | Taipei
  ENCORE
Thematic Stock Exposures: The semiconductor advances ecosystem
29 Oct 2024 | Aleksandra Gjorgievska and Brian Rooney

This inaugural conference will bring together thought leaders and senior executives from the most important companies listed in Asia Pacific to present their corporate strategy, current trends and challenges. Running in parallel with the main presentations, companies will be hosting one-on-one and small group meetings.

event takeaways

India Industrials: India Manufacturing Tour: Key Takeaways from Day 2
26 Jun 2025 | 3:25am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Pulkit Patni and others
Bank of China (3988.HK): Asia Financials Corporate Day Takeaways
25 Jun 2025 | 7:00pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Shuo Yang, Ph.D. and others
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
Latest research
MPLX LP (MPLX): 2Q25 Preview: Softer Quarter but Growth Profile and Cash Returns Intact
26 Jun 2025 | 10:20am| 8pg| Research | Equity-John Mackay and others
JBS (JBS): CMD outlines continued growth and a compelling risk-reward; Buy
26 Jun 2025 | 9:53am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Thiago Bortoluci and others
Americas Banks: Assessing the impact of the SLR proposal for large banks
26 Jun 2025 | 9:53am| 15pg| Research | Equity-Richard Ramsden and others
GFL Environmental (GFL): Notes from the road: Landfill gas, M&A, monetization
26 Jun 2025 | 7:42am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Jerry Revich, CFA and others
Aurizon Holdings (AZJ.AX): First Take: Updated guidance and leadership structure changes; Buy
26 Jun 2025 | 7:33am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Niraj Shah and others
The 720: TSMC, All Ring/GPTC Initiations, ResMed, Aspeed, India Industrials, Global Strategy, Copper
26 Jun 2025 | 7:22am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others

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DAILY ROUNDUPS
The 720: TSMC, All Ring/GPTC Initiations, ResMed, Aspeed, India Industrials, Global Strategy, Copper
26 Jun 2025 | 7:22am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
Midday Market Intelligence: housing...
26 Jun 2025 | 3:05am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
25 Jun 2025 | 8:36pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
conference: Asia
2-27 Jun 2025 | Virtual
conference: Asia
24-27 Jun 2025 | GS Hong Kong Office (Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen’s Road Central)
Global Markets
conference: Europe
25-26 Jun 2025 | Munich
As public and private markets continue to converge, the symposium will showcase a number of the most exciting and innovative private, tech enabled...Read more
Global Investment Research in partnership with FICC and Equities
webcast: Europe
26 Jun 2025 | 1:30pm LN | 8:30am NY | 8:30pm HK
We will revisit Peter and Sharon's call for diversification on the back of their latest note looking at why they think investors should look beyond...Read more
Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Equity Strategist, GIR
Sharon Bell, Senior European Equity Strategist, GIR
Sven Jari Stehn, Chief European Economist, GIR
Andrew Lee, Head of European Telco Research, GIR
Elias Benzina, Head of EMEA Custom Baskets Merchandising, GIR
Sahar Islam, Head of European Merchandising, GIR