Equity Research
After a decade of US-led dominance, the case for diversification is back. The extraordinary outperformance of US equities—driven by mega-cap tech, a strong dollar, and superior fundamentals—has reached a turning point. Valuation spreads between the US and the rest of the world are at historical highs, and market concentration has intensified, leaving portfolios exposed to a narrow set of risks. We highlight opportunities across geographies, styles, and size segments.
We analyzed the earnings day moves of the 491 S&P 500 stocks that have reported so far this earnings season and compared them with the past 18 years. As earnings season draws to a close, we find volatility declined this quarter and was well below heightened expectations heading into earnings. The average stock moved +/-4.4% on earnings day, higher than the long-term average but lower than options-implied moves of +/- 7.1%.
We are raising our earnings forecast for TSMC by 2-6% for 2025-2027E as we raise our 1) wafer revenue forecast for 3nm/5nm, partially to factor in our easing concern over further AI order cuts, and 2) CoWoS (chip on wafer on substrate) forecast, driven by more customer adoption.
25 Jun 2025 | Research | Equity - Bruce Lu and others
The semiconductor packaging landscape is undergoing a new era of fundamental transformation. As traditional Moore's Law slows, the spotlight has shifted towards advanced packaging as the critical enabler of continued performance gains and heterogeneous integration. Not only is AI driving the adoption of advanced packaging, but we also see increasing demand in chiplet designs to further proliferate into non-AI segments starting late 2025, supporting a more sustained and diversified demand growth onward. This shift creates a compelling opportunity for local leading back-end equipment vendors in our view; we therefore initiate All Ring (6187.TWO) and GPTC (3131.TWO) with Buy ratings and 12m TPs of NT$550/NT$2,000, representing c.37%/25% upsides.
25 Jun 2025 | Research | Equity - Evelyn Yu and others
Also see: Aspeed (5274.TWO): Strength to further persist into 3Q25; reiterate Buy with TP up to NT$6,000
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Bruce Lu Asia Pacific Technology | Taipei |
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Evelyn Yu Asia Pacific Technology | Taipei |
Thematic Stock Exposures: The semiconductor advances ecosystem
29 Oct 2024 | Aleksandra Gjorgievska and Brian Rooney

event takeaways
- Company HighlightsFujimi Inc. (5384.T): Raise our estimates on higher silicon wafer product sales, upgrade to Neutral from Sell26 Jun 2025 | 6:00am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Atsushi Ikeda and othersIluka Resources (ILU.AX): Eneabba Rare Earth Refinery site visit: solid construction progress, off-take discussions ongoing; Buy (on CL)26 Jun 2025 | 7:14am| 31pg| Research | Equity-Paul Young and othersJefferies Financial Group (JEF): 2Q25 EPS: Puts and takes - Better IBanking and comp ratio; worse trading and non-comp expenses26 Jun 2025 | 10:27am| 7pg| Research | Equity-James Yaro and othersRio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AX): Oyu Tolgoi/Entrée lease approval delay; possible ~50k impact to Cu & Au in 27&28; Buy25 Jun 2025 | 11:04am| 15pg| Research | Equity-Paul Young and othersSHIFT UP Corp. (462870.KS): Weaker-than-expected Nikke x Stellar Blade collab, but stronger momentum anticipated in 2H25; Buy25 Jun 2025 | 11:28pm| 10pg| Research | Equity-Eric Cha and othersPhilip Morris International Inc. (PM): Europe Focus event in Italy highlights a strategic shift to a multi-category approach further accelerating growth & profitability - Reiterate Buy25 Jun 2025 | 10:16pm| 15pg| Research | Equity-Bonnie Herzog and others
- Industry HighlightsAmericas Technology: Internet: Analyzing the Impact of AI on Industry Profit Pools – Part I (Advertising Case Study)25 Jun 2025 | 4:18am| 20pg| Research | Equity-James Covello and othersAmericas Banks: Assessing the impact of the SLR proposal for large banks26 Jun 2025 | 9:53am| 15pg| Research | Equity-Richard Ramsden and othersAmericas: The State of the Subprime Consumer - Exhibiting Resilience and Improvement Despite Macro Uncertainty25 Jun 2025 | 12:02pm| 40pg| Research | Equity-George K. Tong, CFA and othersAmericas Utilities: Follow the EPS growth in large cap utilities; DUK to Buy, WEC to Sell, AEE up to Neutral25 Jun 2025 | 12:06pm| 23pg| Research | Equity-Carly Davenport and othersAmericas Retail: Specialty Hardlines: Feedback and top questions from our assumption of coverage for VVV, MCW, and other auto names25 Jun 2025 | 2:04pm| 18pg| Research | Equity-Mark Jordan, CFA and othersAmericas Clean Energy: Nuclear: Power uprates a potential driver of near- to medium-term upside for the nuclear value chain; Buy CCJ26 Jun 2025 | 4:11am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Brian Lee, CFA and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYGOAL Kickstart: Risk appetite reversal - Middle East tensions and catalysts point to summer hedges24 Jun 2025 | 2:35am| 29pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA and othersUS Weekly Kickstart: S&P 500 stocks with the highest prospective risk-adjusted returns20 Jun 2025 | 8:32pm| 19pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and othersAsia-Pacific Portfolio Strategy: Asian equity market daily update25 Jun 2025 | 10:08pm| 11pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Timothy Moe, CFA and others
- OPTIONSMacro Catalyst Reactions (24-Jun-2025)24 Jun 2025 | 6:45pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallOptimal Overwrites this week (23-Jun-25)23 Jun 2025 | 10:22pm| 16pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and othersTrade Close: Close Options Recommendation on KR23 Jun 2025 | 10:15pm| 5pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and others
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