• Iran responded to the US attacks over the weekend, and attacked the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, although many of its US personnel had been evacuated of US personnel for a little while.
  伊朗对周末的美国袭击作出回应，袭击了卡塔尔的 Al Udeid 空军基地，尽管许多美军人员已被撤离一段时间。
• NYT reported that Iran coordinated the attacks with Qatari officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimise casualties, and Axiosʼ Ravid noted the Trump admin was aware in advance. 
  《纽约时报》报道，伊朗与卡塔尔官员协调了袭击，并提前通知袭击即将发生以减少伤亡，Axios 的 Ravid 指出特朗普政府事先知情。
• As such, given the heads-up warning and it being deemed a more "symbolic" attack, WTI and Brent significantly sold off.
  因此，鉴于提前警告且被视为更具“象征性”的袭击，WTI 和布伦特原油大幅抛售。
• Fed's Bowman (voters) struck a notably dovish tone, following in the footsteps of known dove Waller last week.
  美联储投票成员 Bowman 发表了明显鸽派的言论，紧随上周知名鸽派 Waller 的脚步。
• US stocks ended the day with gains in what was a very choppy session as Middle East tensions dominated newsflow. 
  美国股市在经历了极为波动的交易日后收盘上涨，中东紧张局势成为新闻焦点。
• Looking ahead, highlights include Japanese Chain Store Sales.
  展望未来，重点关注日本连锁店销售数据。

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SNAPSHOT  快照

US TRADE  美国交易

• US stocks ended the day with gains in what was a very choppy session as Middle East tensions dominated newsflow.
  在中东紧张局势主导新闻的情况下，美国股市经历了非常波动的交易日，最终收盘上涨。
• Sectors were exclusively firmer, aside from Energy, which was weighed on by the losses in the crude complex.
  除能源板块因原油板块下跌而承压外，各板块普遍走强。
• SPX +0.96% at 6,025, NDX +1.06% at 21,856, DJI +0.89% at 42,582, RUT +1.11% at 2,133
  SPX 上涨 0.96%，至 6,025 点，NDX 上涨 1.06%，至 21,856 点，DJI 上涨 0.89%，至 42,582 点，RUT 上涨 1.11%，至 2,133 点
• Click here for a detailed summary.
  点击此处查看详细摘要。

DATA RECAP  数据回顾

• US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Jun) 52.8 (Prev. 53.0); Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jun) 52.0 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 52.0); Services PMI Flash (Jun) 53.1 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 53.7)
  美国 S&P 全球综合 PMI 初值（6 月）52.8（前值 53.0）；制造业 PMI 初值（6 月）52.0，预期 51.0（前值 52.0）；服务业 PMI 初值（6 月）53.1，预期 53.0（前值 53.7）

CENTRAL BANKS  央行

• Fed's Bowman (voters) struck a notably dovish tone, following in the footsteps of known dove Waller last week, continue to highlight a potential divide forming between FOMC Committee members. Bowman said she is open to cutting rates as soon as the July FOMC meeting if inflation pressures stay contained, and 'it is time to consider adjusting the policy rate'. Bowman added they should put more weight on downside risks to the job market going forward, and trade policy is only likely to have 'minimal impacts' on inflation. She added data not showing much impact from trade policy shifts, the Government policy changes should lower inflation risks, and tariffs likely to have a small impact on inflation. Note, that Bowman, after Waller, is the second Committee member to signal a willingness for a July cut, and both of them are Governors. The year-end 2025 median SEP dot plot signalled 50bps of cuts, but with a hawkish composition, as if 1 Committee member shifted to 25bps of cuts this year (from 50bps) the median would have shifted to 25bps of cuts.
  美联储投票委员 Bowman 发出明显鸽派信号，继上周已知鸽派委员 Waller 之后，继续强调 FOMC 委员之间可能出现分歧。Bowman 表示，如果通胀压力保持受控，她愿意在 7 月 FOMC 会议上考虑降息，“是时候考虑调整政策利率了”。Bowman 补充说，未来应更多关注就业市场的下行风险，贸易政策对通胀的影响预计“最小”。她还表示，数据显示贸易政策变化影响不大，政府政策调整应降低通胀风险，关税对通胀的影响可能较小。值得注意的是，继 Waller 之后，Bowman 是第二位表达 7 月降息意愿的委员，两人均为理事。2025 年底的中位 SEP 点阵图显示降息 50 个基点，但整体偏鹰派，如果有一名委员将今年的降息预期从 50 个基点调整为 25 个基点，中位数将转为降息 25 个基点。
• US NEC Director Hassett says Fed's Waller and US President Trump are right about interest rates; no reason for the Fed not to cut rates.
  美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，美联储的沃勒和美国总统特朗普关于利率的看法是正确的；没有理由让美联储不降息。
• ECB's Lagarde: "Survey data point overall to some weaker prospects for economic activity in the near term. Higher tariffs and a stronger euro are expected to dampen exports, with high uncertainty delaying investment decisions."
  欧洲央行行长拉加德表示：“调查数据显示，近期经济活动的整体前景有所减弱。更高的关税和更强的欧元预计将抑制出口，高度不确定性延缓了投资决策。”

FX  外汇

• The Dollar started the weekend on the back foot due to two main factors: 1) the pulling back of geopolitical risk premium, and 2) a dovish Fed Bowman.
  美元周末开局疲软，主要有两个原因：1）地缘政治风险溢价回落，2）美联储鲍曼的鸽派立场。
• In Europe, flash PMIs for June filled the calendar, with Germany beating on mfg. and services, France fell short on both, while the UK beat on mfg. but disappointed on services, and the EZ missed on mfg., but met expectations on the services front.
  欧洲方面，6 月初值 PMI 数据密集发布，德国制造业和服务业均超预期，法国制造业和服务业均不及预期，英国制造业超预期但服务业令人失望，欧元区制造业未达预期，但服务业符合预期。
• Haven FX was mixed with the CHF outperforming its JPY counterpart, putting USD/CHF at ~0.8120.
  避险货币表现不一，瑞士法郎表现优于日元，美元兑瑞郎约为 0.8120。
• In Mexico, Retail Sales fell 1% in April, the steepest drop since January 2024; meanwhile, Y/Y fell 2%, driven by declines in groceries and beverages, hardware and glass, and motor vehicles and fuel;
  墨西哥 4 月零售销售下降 1%，为 2024 年 1 月以来最大跌幅；同比下降 2%，主要受食品饮料、五金玻璃以及汽车和燃料类商品的下滑影响；

FIXED INCOME  固定收益

• T-notes ended the day with gains as Bowman turned dove, in what was a choppy session as geopols dominated the tape.
  随着 Bowman 转向鸽派，国债期货收盘上涨，全天走势波动，地缘政治因素主导市场。

COMMODITIES  大宗商品

• Oil prices traded between extreme parameters, but settled with significant weakness and settled at lows, as markets read the Iran response as de-escalatory
  油价在极端区间内波动，但最终大幅走弱并收于低位，市场解读伊朗的回应为降级信号

GEOPOLITICAL  地缘政治

MIDDLE EAST  中东

• Iran responded to the US attacks over the weekend, and attacked the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, although many of its US personnel had been evacuated of US personnel for a little while.
  伊朗对周末美国的袭击作出回应，袭击了卡塔尔的 Al Udeid 空军基地，尽管许多美军人员已被撤离一段时间。
• NYT reported that Iran coordinated the attacks with Qatari officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimise casualties, and Axios’ Ravid noted the Trump admin was aware in advance.
  纽约时报报道，伊朗与卡塔尔官员协调了袭击，并提前通知袭击即将发生以减少伤亡，Axios 的 Ravid 指出特朗普政府事先知情。
• As such, given the heads-up warning and it being deemed a more ‘symbolic’ attack, WTI and Brent significantly sold off.
  因此，鉴于提前警告且被视为更具“象征性”的袭击，WTI 和布伦特原油大幅抛售。
• Regarding the actual retaliation, which has been deemed a de-escalation, there were reports Iran was targeting bases in Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, but a US military official confirmed no Iranian attack recorded at any US base other than Qatar, and Qatar said its air defences intercepted all missiles on the US military base.
  关于实际的报复行动，被认为是降级，有报道称伊朗瞄准了卡塔尔、科威特和伊拉克的基地，但一名美国军方官员确认，除卡塔尔外，未记录伊朗对任何美国基地的袭击，卡塔尔表示其防空系统拦截了美国军事基地上的所有导弹。
• US President Trump on Truth Social said, "Everyone, keep oil prices down. I'm watching!, and "To the DoE: Drill, baby, drill, and I mean now".
  美国总统特朗普在 Truth Social 上表示：“大家，保持油价低。我在关注！”，并且说：“致能源部：钻探，宝贝，钻探，我是说现在就开始”。
• Iran said it will continue its retaliation in response to US attacks, according to a senior official to Reuters.
  据路透社一位高级官员称，伊朗表示将继续对美国的袭击进行报复。
• "Trump admin was anticipating Tehran would retaliate after US strikes, and the president does not want more military engagement in the region", via CNN citing a senior White House official.
  CNN 援引一位白宫高级官员的话称：“特朗普政府预料到德黑兰会在美国袭击后进行报复，总统不希望在该地区有更多军事介入。”
• Kpler's Bakr said "As per our latest images, traffic in Hormuz is unaffected".
  Kpler 的 Bakr 表示：“根据我们最新的图像，霍尔木兹海峡的交通未受影响。”
• Trump admin was aware in advance of Iran's attack on Al Udeid airbase, according to Axios' Ravid.
  据 Axios 的 Ravid 报道，特朗普政府事先知晓伊朗对 Al Udeid 空军基地的袭击。
• There were no Iranian missile attacks against the Ain al-Assad base in Iraq, the sirens were activated at the base in preparation for an expected Iranian attack, via Roi Kais citing Iraqi security sources to Qatar's Al-Arabi channel.
  据 Roi Kais 援引伊拉克安全消息人士向卡塔尔 Al-Arabi 频道报道，伊朗并未对伊拉克的艾因·阿萨德基地发动导弹袭击，基地警报因预期伊朗袭击而启动。
• US President Trump posted "Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered. There have been 14 missiles fired — 13 were knocked down, and 1 was “set free,” because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction. I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their “system,” and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA."
  美国总统特朗普发文称：“伊朗正式回应了我们对其核设施的摧毁行动，回应非常弱，这在预料之中，我们已非常有效地进行了反击。共发射了 14 枚导弹——其中 13 枚被击落，1 枚‘被释放’，因为它朝向无威胁方向。我很高兴地报告，没有美国人受伤，几乎没有造成任何损害。最重要的是，他们已经把所有怨气发泄出来了，希望不会有更多仇恨。我感谢伊朗提前通知我们，这使得没有人员伤亡，也没有人受伤。也许伊朗现在可以推进该地区的和平与和谐，我将热情鼓励以色列也这样做。感谢大家对此事的关注！美国总统 唐纳德·J·特朗普。”
• A White House official told Axios' Ravid that Trump's goal now is to end the war and he is going to make it clear to Israeli PM Netanyahu. "We want a deal and don't want any more war", the official said
  一位白宫官员告诉 Axios 的 Ravid，特朗普现在的目标是结束战争，他将向以色列总理内塔尼亚胡明确表示。“我们想达成协议，不想再有战争，”该官员说。

DATA RECAP  数据回顾

• EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jun) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.2); Services Flash PMI (Jun) 50.0 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 49.7); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 49.4 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.4)
  欧盟 HCOB 综合闪现 PMI（6 月）50.2，预期 50.5（前值 50.2）；服务业闪现 PMI（6 月）50.0，预期 50.0（前值 49.7）；制造业闪现 PMI（6 月）49.4，预期 49.7（前值 49.4）
• French HCOB Services Flash PMI (Jun) 48.7 vs Exp. 49.2 (Prev. 48.9); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 47.8 vs Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 49.8); Composite Flash PMI (Jun) 48.5 vs Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 49.3)
  法国 HCOB 服务业闪现 PMI（6 月）48.7，预期 49.2（前值 48.9）；制造业闪现 PMI（6 月）47.8，预期 50.0（前值 49.8）；综合闪现 PMI（6 月）48.5，预期 49.3（前值 49.3）
• German HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 49.0 vs. Exp. 48.7 (Prev. 48.3); Services Flash PMI (Jun) 49.4 vs. Exp. 47.5 (Prev. 47.1); Composite Flash PMI (Jun) 50.4 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 48.5)
  德国 HCOB 制造业闪现 PMI（6 月）49.0，预期 48.7（前值 48.3）；服务业闪现 PMI（6 月）49.4，预期 47.5（前值 47.1）；综合闪现 PMI（6 月）50.4，预期 49.0（前值 48.5）
• UK Flash Services PMI (Jun) 51.3 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 50.9); Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 47.7 vs Exp. 46.6 (Prev. 46.4); Composite PMI (Jun) 50.7 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.3)
  英国 6 月服务业 PMI 初值 51.3，预期 51.5（前值 50.9）；制造业 PMI（6 月）47.7，预期 46.6（前值 46.4）；综合 PMI（6 月）50.7，预期 50.5（前值 50.3）