Incremental stimulus should put a floor to China growth. Following the stronger-than-expected H1 growth, we believe growth momentum will slow down given the worsening property indicators and payback in exports, while forecasting consumption to moderate yet remain resilient. We think the new fiscal stimulus will likely emerge around or after the Sep-Oct high level meetings, but remain conservative about its size and impact. The Chinese government's recent focus on tackling excessive competition and price wars amid persistent deflation and falling profitability is worth noting.
增量刺激政策有望为中国经济增长托底。鉴于上半年经济增长超预期，我们认为随着房地产指标恶化和出口回调，增长势头将放缓，同时预计消费虽有所降温但仍具韧性。我们判断新增财政刺激措施可能在 9-10 月高层会议前后出台，但对其规模和影响持保守态度。值得注意的是，中国政府近期在持续通缩和利润率下降的背景下，正着力解决过度竞争和价格战问题。

China equities in the lead, EU China proxies stabilising. Chinese equities are ahead of the pack ytd. Gains have mainly come from H-listed shares, helped by CNY stabilisation, with Tech, Healthcare, and Mining sectors leading. LOs and Macro/CTA funds have turned more positive, but overall positioning does not appear stretched and valuations remain depressed. In contrast, the European stocks most exposed to China have underperformed sharply ytd, fuelling more domestic-exporters polarisation. We note, however, that these EU China-exposed stocks have generally started to rebound since early summer, likely due to better data, signs of a US-China trade war detente, expectations of more stimulus, and, more broadly, nascent momentum reversal.
中国股市领跑，欧盟中国概念股企稳。年初至今中国股市表现领先，主要得益于人民币企稳带动 H 股上涨，科技、医疗和矿业板块领涨。长期投资者和宏观/CTA 基金态度转趋乐观，但整体持仓尚未过度扩张，估值仍处低位。相比之下，欧洲市场对中国敞口最大的股票年初至今显著跑输，加剧了本土与外向型企业的分化。但我们注意到，这些欧盟中国概念股自初夏以来普遍开始反弹，可能源于数据改善、中美贸易战缓和迹象、更多刺激政策预期，以及更广泛的新兴动能反转。

Potential catalysts to watch. Given the stronger growth delivery in H1, our economists do not expect new policy stimulus to be announced at the Politburo later this month. This is more likely to happen after the summer, at the NPC standing committee meeting. Meanwhile, the EU-China summit on 24-25 July and the August 12^th deadline for the US and China to reach a trade deal will also matter with regards to external demand conditions for China, and are likely to set the tone for the China trade in H2.
值得关注的政策催化剂。鉴于上半年经济增长表现强劲，我们的经济学家预计本月晚些时候的政治局会议不会宣布新的政策刺激措施。更有可能在夏季过后的人大常委会会议上出台。与此同时，7 月 24-25 日的中欧峰会和 8 月 12 日中美达成贸易协议的最后期限，也将对中国的外部需求环境产生影响，并可能为下半年中国贸易走势定下基调。

We advise selective exposure to China. We reiterate our FTSE100 OW, as we see its barbell defensive & commodity tilt offering an interesting hedge against tariffs risk in Europe, as well as upside exposure to China macro, at a cheap valuation. Our basket of EU China-exposed stocks (BCEUCHIN) is down 3% ytd vs. SXXP up 7%, and thus is likely to benefit the most in case of good news. The basket P/E has re-rated recently and we expect high dispersion under the hood, though, so have screened for stocks with negative performance but positive EPS momentum. Sector wise, we stay MW Mining for now. A weaker dollar, doveish Fed expectations and inflation hedging could fuel more short squeeze, and EPS momentum is improving, but August seasonality is very negative for the sector, and we want to see more green shoots in Chinese data. Within consumer, we are tactically OW Luxury post our recent upgrade, which is also a play on top-end US consumer and USD stabilisation, but UW Autos as we do not see structural issues going away. We stay MW Capital Goods, as the sector earnings look robust but valuations are rich and tariffs risk looms into 1 Aug.
我们建议选择性布局中国资产。重申对富时 100 指数超配评级，因其防御性与大宗商品板块的杠铃式配置能有效对冲欧洲关税风险，同时以低廉估值提供中国宏观经济的上行敞口。我们筛选的欧盟涉华股票组合(BCEUCHIN)年内下跌 3%，而欧洲斯托克 600 指数上涨 7%，因此在利好出现时有望获得最大反弹。虽然该组合市盈率近期已重估，但预计内部将呈现高度分化，故我们筛选出股价表现疲软但每股收益动能改善的个股。行业配置方面，目前维持矿业中性评级。美元走弱、美联储鸽派预期及通胀对冲可能引发更多空头回补，且盈利动能正在改善，但八月季节性因素对该板块极为不利，我们期待看到更多中国经济数据回暖迹象。消费品板块中，战术性超配近期上调评级的奢侈品行业——这同时押注美国高端消费及美元企稳，但低配汽车板块因结构性问题未见缓解。维持资本货物中性评级，因行业盈利稳健但估值偏高，且 8 月 1 日前关税风险持续发酵。

Economics: Incremental stimulus to put a floor to growth
经济：增量刺激政策为增长托底

Jian Chang⁽ⁱⁱ⁾ Barclays Bank, Hong Kong  |  Yingke Zhou⁽ⁱⁱ⁾ Barclays Bank, Hong Kong  |  Ying Zhang⁽ⁱⁱ⁾ Barclays Bank, Hong Kong
常健 ⁽ⁱⁱ⁾ 巴克莱银行，香港 | 周颖珂 ⁽ⁱⁱ⁾ 巴克莱银行，香港 | 张颖 ⁽ⁱⁱ⁾ 巴克莱银行，香港

Chinese government continues to prioritise equity market revitalisation...
中国政府持续将股市振兴作为优先事项...

Entering 2025, the DeepSeek moment, the generally stronger-than-expected economic data, and the US-China tariff de-escalations had reignited equity investor interest in China. The Chinese government has also shown continued commitment to "stabilise and revitalise the equity market", and has recently become more determined to tackle excessive competition and price wars, known as “neijuan” (内卷) or involution, amid persistent deflation and falling profitability.
进入 2025 年，DeepSeek 时刻的到来、普遍强于预期的经济数据以及中美关税的逐步降低，重新点燃了股票投资者对中国市场的兴趣。中国政府也持续展现出"稳定和振兴股市"的决心，近期在持续通缩和盈利能力下降的背景下，更加坚定地应对被称为"内卷"的过度竞争和价格战现象。

• On 14 January, China's security regulator unveiled a series of measures including encouraging long-term capital inflows into the stock market at its 2025 work conference.
  1 月 14 日，中国证券监管机构在 2025 年度工作会议上出台了一系列举措，包括鼓励长期资金入市。

• On 17 February, President Xi held a symposium with the CEOs of China’s tech giants, which was widely perceived by global investors as a supportive signal for private sector development.
  2 月 17 日，习近平主席主持召开科技巨头企业家座谈会，此举被全球投资者普遍视为支持民营经济发展的积极信号。

• On 7 April, Chinese state-owned capital operation firms announced they would increase their holdings of domestic equities via ETF purchases amid global financial turbulence.
  4 月 7 日，在全球金融市场动荡之际，中国国有资本运营公司宣布将通过增持 ETF 方式加大国内股票持仓。

• In early June, three government departments (NDRC, MIIT, and SAMR) summoned the top executives of EV makers, including BYD, Geely, and Xiaomi¹"China commerce ministry to join govt crackdown on intense auto competition", Reuters, 5 June 2025, to address concerns about an ongoing price war.
  6 月初，国家发改委、工信部和市场监管总局三部门联合约谈比亚迪、吉利、小米等新能源汽车制造商高管，以应对持续价格战引发的行业关切。

• On 18 July, the market regulation department (SAMR) summoned major online food delivery platforms (Alibaba's Ele.me, Meituan, and JD.com²"China’s top market regulator summons Alibaba, Meituan, JD.com over delivery price war", SCMP, 19 July 2025) and urged them to engage in rational competition amid the subsidy-fuelled price war.
  7 月 18 日，市场监管总局约谈主要网络餐饮平台（阿里巴巴旗下饿了么、美团、京东到家 ² ），要求其在补贴引发的价格战中保持理性竞争。

...however, no rush for big fiscal stimulus, though policy advisors argue otherwise
...但无需急于推出大规模财政刺激，尽管政策顾问持不同意见

With better-than-expected H1 GDP growth of 5.3% exceeding the growth target of 5% and the tariff truce likely to hold with room for potential tariff cuts, we do not expect an announcement of new fiscal stimulus package at the upcoming July Politburo meeting. We think it will more likely be announced around or after the Sep-Oct high-level meetings, a view we've held since March. That said, we continue to be more conservative than markets about the size of the fiscal and monetary easing.
鉴于上半年 GDP 增速 5.3%超预期并高于 5%的增长目标，且关税休战态势有望延续甚至存在降税空间，我们预计 7 月政治局会议不会宣布新的财政刺激方案。自 3 月以来我们始终认为，更可能在 9-10 月高层会议前后出台。尽管如此，对于财政与货币宽松的力度，我们仍比市场预期更为保守。

We maintain our view that the government's approach to introducing stimulus support measures will continue to be reactive, targeted and incremental, while they monitor and closely gauge the impact of tariff shocks and persistent property downturn on the economy (see China stimulus: Stay tuned, 13 November 2024). The People's Bank of China (PBoC)'s deputy governor Zou Lan said last week that the central bank will monitor the impact of measures already implemented and the pace of the roll-out of further policies.
我们维持原有观点，认为政府在出台刺激支持措施时将继续采取反应性、针对性和渐进式的策略，同时密切监测关税冲击和持续房地产低迷对经济的影响（参见 2024 年 11 月 13 日《中国刺激政策：敬请关注》）。中国人民银行副行长邹澜上周表示，央行将监测已实施政策的效果，并据此把握后续政策的推出节奏。

On the fiscal front, we expect the government to introduce an additional ~CNY0.5 to 1trn new stimulus to help counter the expected slowdown in H2. We think the incremental spending could be used 1) to support strategic investment projects, 2) to support urban village redevelopment, 3) to expand the consumption trade-in subsidies to the services sectors. On monetary policy, following the 10bp cut in policy rate and 50bp cut in RRR in Q2, we expect the PBoC to deliver another 10bp cut in policy rate (7d OMO rate) and a further 50bp cut in RRR in H2.
在财政政策方面，我们预计政府将追加约 0.5 至 1 万亿元人民币的新刺激措施，以应对下半年预期的经济放缓。我们认为新增支出可能用于：1）支持战略性投资项目；2）推进城中村改造；3）将消费品以旧换新补贴政策扩展至服务行业。货币政策方面，继二季度政策利率下调 10 个基点、存款准备金率下调 50 个基点后，我们预计下半年央行将再次下调 7 天逆回购利率 10 个基点，并进一步降准 50 个基点。

It is worth noting that a number of senior policy advisors have recently called for a bigger stimulus in the remainder of the year. On July 11, PBoC adviser Huang Yiping and former PBoC official Guo Kai recommended an additional CNY1–1.5trn in stimulus to boost consumption, by raising low- and middle-income earnings and increasing consumption subsidies in the services sectors³"PBOC Adviser Urges $209 Billion Stimulus to Offset Tariffs", Bloomberg, 11 July 2025. On 21 July, Zhang Bin, who had presented his views to the President and the PBoC governor in 2024,⁴https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/05/30/xi-jinpings-surprising-new-source-of-economic-advicehttp://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688172/5188125/5453863/index.html suggested issuing CNY2.3trn in government bonds to achieve the budget spending target (Figure 1) and increase government-led public investment like urban renewal projects, as well as further cutting interest rates⁵"Experts call for stronger fiscal stimulus to sustain China's growth", CGTN, 21 July 2025.
值得注意的是，多位资深政策顾问近期呼吁在下半年加大刺激力度。7 月 11 日，中国人民银行顾问黄益平与前央行官员郭凯建议追加 1-1.5 万亿元刺激资金，通过提高中低收入群体收入及增加服务行业消费补贴来提振消费 ³ 。7 月 21 日，曾于 2024 年向国家主席和央行行长建言的经济学家张斌 ⁴ 提议发行 2.3 万亿元特别国债，以实现预算支出目标（图 1），并增加城市更新等政府主导的公共投资，同时进一步降息 ⁵ 。

Figure 1. Fiscal spending turned positive since October   图 1.财政支出自 10 月起转正

Source: Wind, Barclays Research
资料来源：万得资讯、巴克莱研究

Figure 2. GDP deflator deteriorated again  图 2.GDP 平减指数再度恶化

Source: Wind, Barclays Research
来源：Wind、巴克莱研究

Growth: Moderating H2 with resilient consumption but weak property sector
增长态势：下半年消费韧性犹存但地产疲软，增速将趋缓

Supported by rapid export growth and a better-than-expected response to the government's trade-in subsidy program, China's headline GDP recorded solid growth of 5.2% y/y in Q2, following 5.4% in Q1 and 5.0% in 2024. Reflecting the stronger-than-expected Q2 out-turn, we recently revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%, while staying below-consensus to reflect our more bearish views on the property sector and government stimulus, held since the Geneva truce (China: De-escalation brings some relief, 19 May 2025)).
在出口快速增长及政府"以旧换新"补贴计划反响超预期的支撑下，中国二季度 GDP 同比增速达 5.2%，延续了一季度 5.4%和 2024 全年 5.0%的稳健增长。鉴于二季度经济表现强于预期，我们近期将 2025 年 GDP 增速预测上调至 4.5%，但仍低于市场共识——这反映了自日内瓦停战协议（参见 2025 年 5 月 19 日报告《中国：局势缓和带来喘息空间》）以来，我们对房地产行业和政府刺激政策持更为悲观的态度。

Looking ahead, we expect growth momentum to moderate in Q3 before recovering in Q4 as the incremental policy stimulus gains traction. The anticipated Q3 slowdown reflects a confluence of factors: worsening property sector prospects amid deteriorating sentiment, some payback in exports following strong front-loading in H1, and an expected slowdown in US consumer spending in Q3. Meanwhile, domestic consumption is likely to moderate but should remain resilient supported in part by the remaining CNY136bn trade-in subsidy scheduled for distribution in July and October (see China H2 Outlook: Moderating activity, resilient consumption, 27 June 2025).
展望未来，我们预计三季度增长动能将有所放缓，待四季度增量政策刺激见效后将逐步复苏。三季度经济放缓预期是多重因素共同作用的结果：房地产行业前景因市场情绪恶化而雪上加霜，上半年出口强劲前置效应消退后的自然回调，以及美国消费者支出在三季度可能出现的放缓。与此同时，国内消费虽可能温和回落，但将保持韧性支撑——部分得益于 1360 亿元以旧换新补贴将于 7 月和 10 月分批发放（参见 2025 年 6 月 27 日报告《中国下半年展望：活动趋缓，消费坚韧》）。

The property sector is still searching for a bottom
房地产行业仍在探底过程中

Consistent with our expectations, the key property indicators across-the-board have shown visible deterioration since April, with a widening contraction in property investments and sales, and faster decline in home prices. Looking ahead, we expect property investments to contract by 12% in 2025 (H1: -11.2% y/y, H2E: -13%), following the ~10% decline in three consecutive years during 2022-24. Moreover, we expect the contraction in property sales to widen significantly to -15% in H2 versus -3.5% in H1, given the primary factors influencing near-term demand for housing have turned less favourable (e.g., deteriorating labour market, gloomy home-buyer confidence, and more cities seeing declining home prices).
正如我们预期，4 月以来房地产各项关键指标全面恶化，投资与销售萎缩幅度扩大，房价加速下跌。展望未来，我们预计 2025 年房地产投资将收缩 12%（上半年同比-11.2%，下半年预期-13%），延续 2022-24 年连续三年约 10%的降幅。此外，鉴于影响住房短期需求的主要因素趋于不利（如劳动力市场恶化、购房者信心低迷、更多城市房价下跌），我们预计下半年房地产销售萎缩幅度将显著扩大至-15%，而上半年为-3.5%。

Although housing inventory passed the peak of 33 months in Q4 24, it remains elevated at ~20 months of national property sales as of end-April. Given that ~12 months is considered a healthy level, it suggests that housing demand and supply remain very unbalanced, and more adjustment is needed. The latest Central Urban Work Conference (14-15 July) fell short of offering a new stimulus for the property sector. We think the potential of introducing more aggressive/nationwide property stimulus is limited, as the government has already relaxed restrictive measures in non-tier 1 cities, and has cut the down payment ratio to a record low.
尽管 2024 年第四季度住房库存已度过 33 个月的历史峰值，但截至 4 月底全国房产销售周期仍维持在约 20 个月的高位。鉴于约 12 个月被视为健康水平，这表明住房供需仍严重失衡，需要进一步调整。近期召开的中央城市工作会议（7 月 14-15 日）未出台新的房地产刺激政策。我们认为推出更激进/全国性房地产刺激措施的可能性有限，因为政府已放宽非一线城市的限制性政策，并将首付比例下调至历史最低水平。

Figure 3. Property sales fell the most since Sep 2024  图 3. 房地产销售创 2024 年 9 月以来最大跌幅

Source: Wind, Barclays Research
资料来源：万得、巴克莱研究

Figure 4. More cities saw declines in home prices  图 4. 房价下跌城市数量持续增加

Source: Wind, Barclays Research
资料来源：Wind、巴克莱研究

Resilient consumption despite deteriorating labour market
劳动力市场恶化背景下消费仍具韧性

Retail sales rose 5% y/y in H1 2025, with monthly figures exceeding market expectation in four out of six months. This strength was largely supported by a better-than-expected response to the government's expanded trade-in subsidy program, which drove notable gains in sales of household appliances, communication devices, stationery, and furniture. According to the NDRC, the CNY162bn trade-in subsidies disbursed in H1 2025 generated CNY1.4trn in sales, which already surpassed the CNY1.3trn achieved during the eight-month roll-out in 2024 (late April-December 2024). In fact, retail sales have increased steadily in the past three quarters to register growth of 5.4% y/y in Q2 (5.1% in April, and 5.6% averaged over May-June), from 4.6% in Q1 and 3.8% in Q4 24, and below 3% in Q2-Q3 24 (both 2.7%). A similar pattern was seen in listed e-commerce company sales data (Figure 6).
2025 年上半年零售额同比增长 5%，其中四个月的月度数据超出市场预期。这一强劲表现主要得益于政府对以旧换新补贴计划的扩大实施效果优于预期，显著带动了家电、通讯设备、文具及家具的销售增长。国家发改委数据显示，2025 年上半年发放的 1620 亿元以旧换新补贴拉动了 1.4 万亿元销售额，已超过 2024 年八个月实施期（2024 年 4 月下旬至 12 月）实现的 1.3 万亿元。事实上，零售额已连续三个季度稳步增长：第二季度同比增长 5.4%（4 月 5.1%，5-6 月平均 5.6%），高于第一季度的 4.6%和 2024 年第四季度的 3.8%，也显著优于 2024 年第二、三季度不足 3%的增速（均为 2.7%）。上市电商企业的销售数据也呈现相似趋势（图 6）。

Overall, following the strong 5.4% growth in Q2, we expect some moderation in retail sales growth to 4.5-5.0% in H2, given the smaller consumption trade-in program subsidy for H2 (CNY138bn) compared with H1 (CNY162bn) and H2 24 (CNY150bn). The continued decline in home prices and an uneven recovery in the equity markets still pose some downward pressure on households' wealth, while our tracking of private sector labour market indicators and anecdotal evidence across industries and regions point to no signs of improvement. That said, should there be a sharp reversal in retail sales momentum, we would expect the government to step-up efforts to support consumption with either an enlarged consumption trade-in program or by expanding the subsidy support to include more services sectors.
总体而言，继第二季度强劲增长 5.4%后，考虑到下半年消费以旧换新补贴规模（1380 亿元）较上半年（1620 亿元）和 2024 年下半年（1500 亿元）有所缩减，我们预计下半年零售额增速将温和放缓至 4.5-5.0%。房价持续下跌和股市复苏不均衡仍对家庭财富构成下行压力，同时我们对私营部门劳动力市场指标的追踪及各行业各地区零星证据显示就业状况未见改善。但若零售额增长势头出现急剧逆转，我们预计政府将通过扩大以旧换新计划或将补贴范围延伸至更多服务行业等措施来加码消费支持。

Figure 5. Strong trade-in goods sales albeit moderating...   图 5. 尽管增速放缓，以旧换新商品销售依然强劲...

Source: Wind, Barclays Research
资料来源：万得、巴克莱研究

Figure 6. ...supporting e-commerce giants' revenues  图 6. ...支撑电商巨头营收增长

Source: Wind, Barclays Research
资料来源：Wind、巴克莱研究

European Equity Strategy - China equities in the lead, EU China proxies no longer underperforming
欧洲股票策略 - 中国股市领跑，欧盟中国概念股不再落后

Emmanuel Cau, CFA Barclays, UK  |  Matthew Joyce, CFA BBI, Paris  |  Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran, CFA Barclays, UK  |  Arihanth Bohra Jain Barclays, UK  |  Emmanuel Makonga Barclays, UK
巴克莱英国 CFA Emmanuel Cau | 巴黎 BBI CFA Matthew Joyce | 巴克莱英国 CFA Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran | 巴克莱英国 Arihanth Bohra Jain | 巴克莱英国 Emmanuel Makonga

China equities in the lead
中国股市领跑

Since the beginning of the year, China has stood out as one of the top-performing regions in global equity markets. Despite ongoing risks from tariffs and domestic challenges, Chinese equities have benefited from progress in trade negotiations, a more resilient-than-expected economy and the broad revitalisation effort from the government.
今年以来，中国股市在全球主要市场中表现亮眼。尽管仍面临关税风险与国内挑战，但贸易谈判取得进展、经济韧性超预期以及政府全面提振措施，共同推动了中国股市上行。

Figure 7. China equities are outperforming among the main regions ytd  图 7. 中国股市年内表现在主要地区中领先

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
数据来源：LSEG Data & Analytics，巴克莱研究

Figure 8. MSCI China is back to 2025 highs  图 8. MSCI 中国指数回升至 2025 年高位

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
消息来源：彭博社、巴克莱研究

Indeed, China growth surprised to the upside in H1, at 5.3%, largely driven by improvements on the trade front. But China also continued to benefit from liquidity-supportive policies, and we note that credit impulse has been recovering since the start of the year.
事实上，中国上半年经济增长超预期达到 5.3%，主要受贸易领域改善推动。但中国也持续受益于流动性支持政策，我们注意到自年初以来信贷脉冲已开始复苏。

Figure 9. Consensus 2025 China GDP growth expectations have been revised to the upside  图 9. 2025 年中国 GDP 增长预期共识值已上调

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
来源：彭博社、巴克莱研究

Figure 10. Credit impulse is bottoming out year-to-date  图 10. 信贷脉冲指标年内正触底回升

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
来源：彭博社、巴克莱研究

The PBoC's currency management has also provided stability, helping to limit downside risks from yuan depreciation. A firmer CNY has been a positive factor for MSCI China returns, especially for unhedged investors. According to our FX strategists, unwind of short dollar forwards countering the CNY rally are at least half finished and might end soon, but they still provide cushion in depreciation event ($CNY: On the edge of a cliff, Jul 2).
中国人民银行的汇率管理也提供了稳定性，有助于限制人民币贬值带来的下行风险。人民币走强对 MSCI 中国指数回报率构成积极因素，尤其对未对冲汇率的投资者而言。根据我们的外汇策略师分析，为应对人民币升值而平仓的美元远期合约至少已完成半数，可能即将结束，但这些头寸仍能在贬值时提供缓冲（参见 7 月 2 日报告《人民币：立于悬崖之畔》）。

Figure 11. CNY appreciation has been tailwind for China equities  图 11. 人民币升值成为中国股市的顺风因素

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
来源：伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析部、巴克莱研究

Figure 12. CNY has been supported by PBoC buying  图 12. 人民币汇率得到中国人民银行购汇支撑

Source: Barclays EM Research
来源：巴克莱新兴市场研究

In fact, most of the gains in Chinese equities have come from Hong Kong-listed shares, while domestic A-shares have merely recovered previous losses but are still flat ytd. Sector-wise, Healthcare, Staples, Technology, and Mining have outperformed, whereas Hotels/Restaurant/Leisure, Prof Svcs, and Chemicals have lagged.
事实上，中国股市大部分涨幅来自港股，而境内 A 股仅收复前期失地，年内迄今基本持平。分行业看，医疗保健、必需消费品、科技和矿业表现优异，而酒店/餐饮/休闲、专业服务和化工板块则表现落后。

Figure 13. H-shares have driven most of the China equities upside this year  图 13. 今年中国股市上涨主要由 H 股推动

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
资料来源：LSEG 数据与分析、巴克莱研究

Figure 14. H'care, Staples, Tech and Mining have outperformed  图 14. 医疗保健、必需消费品、科技和矿业板块表现优异

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
资料来源：LSEG 数据与分析、巴克莱研究

There are signs of renewed global investor interest in China. We observe that more long-only funds have shifted to overweight positions in Chinese equities, though allocations remain historically low. At the same time, Macro/CTA funds have generally turned long on China throughout this year after maintaining a negative stance since the pandemic.
全球投资者对中国市场的兴趣正显现复苏迹象。我们注意到，尽管配置比例仍处于历史低位，但更多纯多头基金已转向超配中国股票。与此同时，宏观/CTA 基金在今年持续做多中国，扭转了疫情以来长期持有的看空立场。

Figure 15. China positioning remains depressed  图 15. 中国市场仓位仍处于低迷状态

Source: EPFR, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
数据来源：EPFR、伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析部门、巴克莱研究

Figure 16. Macro/CTA have largely turned long China since Q2 25  图 16. 宏观/CTA 基金自 25 年第二季度以来普遍转向做多中国

Source: HFRX, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
资料来源：HFRX、伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析、巴克莱研究

China equity remains cheap compared to global equities despite the recent rebound. Price performance has outpaced EPS mom, which has not improved as much as the recent rally suggests, though. But valuations still remain depressed in a historical context.
尽管近期有所反弹，但中国股票相比全球股市仍显便宜。虽然价格表现已超过每股收益的环比增速（后者改善程度不及近期涨势所暗示的幅度），但从历史背景看估值仍处于低位。

Figure 17. China equities price has moved ahead of earnings momentum ...   图 17. 中国股票价格走势已领先于盈利动能...

Source: IBES, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
资料来源：IBES、伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析、巴克莱研究

Figure 18. ... but valuation remains cheap  图 18. ......但估值仍处于低位

Source: IBES, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
资料来源：IBES、LSEG 数据与分析、巴克莱研究

While China’s first-half growth remains on track, in our view, recent activity data suggests caution is warranted. Broader economic resilience will be needed to sustain further equity market gains. Structural challenges persist, including disinflation pressures and labour market softness, which continue to weigh on consumer sentiment. And as discussed earlier, more stimulus will likely be needed to attain the official 5% growth target in 2025, but it is unlikely to be rushed given the strong run rate seen in H1.
尽管我们认为中国上半年经济增长仍符合预期，但近期经济活动数据表明需保持谨慎态度。要维持股市进一步上涨，需要更广泛的经济韧性支撑。结构性挑战持续存在，包括通缩压力和劳动力市场疲软，这些因素继续压制消费者信心。如前所述，要实现 2025 年 5%的官方增长目标可能需要更多刺激措施，但鉴于上半年强劲的增长势头，政府可能不会急于出手。

Figure 19. Inflation surprise remains deeply negative although improving  图 19. 通胀意外指数虽有所改善但仍深陷负值区间

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
来源：伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析部，巴克莱研究

Figure 20. China consumer confidence remains depressed   图 20. 中国消费者信心持续低迷

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
来源：伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析部，巴克莱研究

EU China proxies unloved, but no longer underperforming
欧盟中国概念股遇冷，但已止跌回稳

In contrast to the strong performance of Chinese equities, European exporters have generally trailed ytd, especially those most exposed to China, like Semis, Luxury, Mining, and Autos.
与中国股市的强劲表现形成鲜明对比的是，欧洲出口商年内普遍表现落后，尤其是对中国市场依赖度最高的半导体、奢侈品、矿业和汽车行业。

Figure 21. EU sectors revenue exposure to China  图 21. 欧盟各行业对华营收敞口

Note: Revenue exposure data based on company filings and Factset estimates
注：营收敞口数据基于公司申报文件及 Factset 预估

Source: FactSet, LSEG Data & Analytics, MSCI, Barclays Research
数据来源：FactSet、伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析部、MSCI、巴克莱研究

Figure 22. EU sectors with the biggest China revenue exposure have generally underperformed ytd   图 22. 对中国收入敞口最大的欧盟板块年内普遍表现不佳

Source: FactSet, LSEG Data & Analytics, MSCI, Barclays Research
资料来源：FactSet、伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析、MSCI、巴克莱研究

In fact, this year’s market winners have largely been concentrated in domestic-oriented sectors, as investors seek to reduce exposure to tariff-related risks. As a result, EU momentum has shifted toward these domestic play, and is 'short' the exporters. Segments more exposed to tariffs - and to China - have indeed sharply underperformed and remain deeply out of favour / uncrowded.
事实上，今年市场的赢家主要集中在以内需为导向的板块，因为投资者试图减少与关税相关风险的敞口。因此，欧盟市场的动能已转向这些内需型板块，并"做空"出口企业。受关税和中国影响更大的板块确实表现大幅落后，仍然极不受青睐/交易冷清。

Figure 23. China exposure basket has been lagging EU momentum since March 2025  图 23. 自 2025 年 3 月以来，中国敞口投资组合持续落后于欧盟市场动能

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
来源：彭博社、巴克莱研究

Figure 24. EU Domestic tilted sectors remain the most crowded, while exporters/China plays are least crowded   图 24. 欧盟本土倾斜行业仍是最拥挤领域，而出口/中国概念板块拥挤度最低

Source: MSCI, Barclays Research
来源：MSCI、巴克莱研究

We note, however, that since trade tensions started to de-escalate between US and Chinese officials, our basket of EU China proxies (BCEUCHIN basket) has decoupled from the more generic EU Tariffs Basket (BCEUTRAD), in fact outperforming the overall EU market and narrowing the gap that opened up earlier in the year. More broadly, signs/hopes of rapprochement between President Trump and President Xi have likely lifted sentiment on the space, but the rest of summer will be eventful, as many potential catalysts are looming. As discussed above by our Economists, we do not expect new policy stimulus to be announced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July, but likely after Sep-Oct at the NPC standing committee meeting. Meanwhile, the EU-China summit on 24-25 July, and the August 12^th deadline for the US and China to reach a trade deal will also matter with regards to external demand conditions for China.
但我们注意到，自美中官员开始缓和贸易紧张局势以来，我们的欧盟中国概念股篮子（BCEUCHIN 篮子）已与更通用的欧盟关税篮子（BCEUTRAD）脱钩，实际上表现优于整个欧盟市场，并缩小了今年早些时候出现的差距。更广泛地说，特朗普总统与习近平主席关系缓和的迹象/希望可能提振了该领域的市场情绪，但今年夏季剩余时间将充满变数，因为许多潜在催化剂正在逼近。正如我们的经济学家上文所述，我们不预计 7 月底的政治局会议会宣布新的政策刺激措施，更可能在 9-10 月后的全国人大常委会会议上出台。与此同时，7 月 24-25 日的欧中峰会，以及 8 月 12 日美中达成贸易协议的最后期限 ^th ，也将对中国的外部需求状况产生影响。

Figure 25. Our China basket (BCEUCHIN) has caught up with the overall EU market recently  图 25. 我们构建的中国概念投资组合(BCEUCHIN)近期已追平欧盟整体市场表现

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
数据来源：彭博社、巴克莱研究

Figure 26. Peak tariffs uncertainty has helped, but catalysts abound for the rest of summer   图 26. 关税峰值不确定性缓解有所助益，但今夏剩余时段仍存多重催化剂

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
数据来源：彭博社、巴克莱研究

Beyond trade developments, EU China-exposed equities have benefited from two additional tailwinds: a recovering credit impulse in China and a firmer CNY. The former continues to point to further upside potential into 2026, while CNY stabilisation offers a buffer for companies with China exposure, in our view.
除贸易进展外，欧盟涉华股票还受益于两大额外利好因素：中国信贷脉冲的复苏和人民币汇率的走强。我们认为，前者将持续为 2026 年前的市场提供上行潜力，而人民币企稳则为涉华企业提供了缓冲空间。

Figure 27. Improving credit impulse was typically a tailwind for EU China proxies...  图 27. 信贷脉冲改善历来是欧盟中国概念股的推动力...

Source: Bloomberg, iBES, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
资料来源：彭博社、iBES、伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析、巴克莱研究

Figure 28. ...while a firmer CNY also helps  图 28. ...而人民币走强同样带来助力

Source: Bloomberg, IBES, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
来源：彭博社、IBES、伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析、巴克莱研究

We advise selective exposure to China
我们建议选择性布局中国市场

OW FTSE100  超配富时 100 指数

At the country level within Europe, Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK have the highest proportion of exports to China as of 2024. This dynamic is also reflected in equity market sensitivity: UK-listed companies generate approximately 9% of revenue from China, while German companies derive around 8%. In terms of sector exposure, UK and German Materials are among the most China-sensitive, alongside Consumer Discretionary in France, Sweden, and Switzerland, and Technology in the Netherlands.
在欧洲各国中，截至 2024 年，瑞士、德国、荷兰和英国对华出口占比最高。这一趋势同样体现在股市敏感性上：英国上市公司约 9%的收入来自中国，而德国企业这一比例约为 8%。从行业敞口来看，英国和德国的材料板块是对华敏感度最高的领域之一，此外还包括法国、瑞典和瑞士的非必需消费品板块，以及荷兰的科技板块。

Figure 29. Switzerland, Germany, Netherlands and UK are the largest exporters to China  图 29. 瑞士、德国、荷兰和英国是对华出口规模最大的国家

Source: UN Comtrade, IMF WEO, Apr 2025, Barclays Research
数据来源：联合国商品贸易统计数据库、国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》2025 年 4 月版、巴克莱研究

Figure 30. In Europe, Materials and Cons Discr are the sectors most exposed to Chinese demand  图 30. 在欧洲地区，原材料与可选消费品行业对中国需求的风险敞口最大

Note: Revenue exposure data based on company filings and Factset estimates
注：营收风险敞口数据基于公司申报文件及 Factset 预测

Source: FactSet, LSEG Data & Analytics, MSCI, Barclays Research
数据来源：FactSet、伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析部、MSCI、巴克莱研究

We turned OW on FTSE100 post liberation day, as a way to hedge against tariff risk given the lower beta nature of the index, but also as a way to benefit from potentially improving China newsflow. With August 1st reciprocal tariffs deadline approaching for the EU with no deal agreed yet, along with typical negative summer seasonality looming, we continue to see FTSE100 as a relative safe haven within our pan-European coverage. For the time being, the mix of defensive and commodity-tilted sector exposure is an attractive barbell combination for the UK market, in our view.
我们在解放纪念日后增持了富时 100 指数，一方面利用该指数较低贝塔值的特性对冲关税风险，另一方面也期待从中国可能改善的新闻流中获益。随着欧盟 8 月 1 日互征关税最后期限临近却仍未达成协议，加上典型的夏季季节性疲软因素显现，我们仍将富时 100 视为泛欧投资组合中的相对避风港。就目前而言，防御性板块与大宗商品板块的配置组合，在我们看来是英国市场极具吸引力的杠铃策略。

Figure 31. UK trade balance with US is largely neutral and it does have a trade agreement in place with 10% tariffs, unlike the EU  图 31：英国对美贸易基本平衡 且已签订 10%关税的贸易协定 这与欧盟情况不同

Source: Eurostat, Barclays Research
数据来源：欧盟统计局、巴克莱研究

Figure 32. FTSE 100 is less sensitive to the tariff basket, unlike other major European indices  图 32. 与其他欧洲主要指数不同，富时 100 指数对关税篮子敏感度较低

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research
资料来源：彭博社，巴克莱研究

Europe China basket - BCEUCHIN
欧洲中国篮子 - BCEUCHIN

As discussed earlier, although the recent performance of our basket of EU China proxies has improved, it remains depressed in the historical context, and would likely benefit from further good news, if it materialises. However, we expect dispersion to stay high under the hood, given different end-market dynamics at the subsector level, while valuation has recently re-rated.
如前所述，尽管我们构建的欧盟中国概念股篮子近期表现有所改善，但从历史背景来看仍处于低迷状态，若后续有利好消息兑现，该篮子可能受益。然而考虑到细分行业终端市场动态的差异，加之估值近期已重新调整，我们预计其内部个股表现仍将保持高度分化。

Figure 33. BC EU China Exposure basket is still lagging improving sentiment  图 33. 巴克莱欧洲中国敞口篮子仍落后于情绪改善趋势

Source: IBES, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
资料来源：IBES、伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析、巴克莱研究

Figure 34. Barclays EU China exposure basket (BCEUCHIN)  图 34. 巴克莱欧洲中国敞口篮子(BCEUCHIN)

Note: Revenue exposure data based on company filings and FactSet estimates
注：营收敞口数据基于公司申报文件及 FactSet 预估

Source: FactSet, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
资料来源：FactSet、伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析、巴克莱研究

In order to avoid potential value traps, we have built the following screen looking at SXXP stocks with 1) at least 10% of China revenue exposure and 2) positive and improving relative EPS momentum.
为避免潜在的价值陷阱，我们构建了以下筛选标准，考察符合以下条件的欧洲斯托克 600 指数成分股：1) 中国收入占比至少 10%；2) 相对每股收益动能呈积极改善态势。

Figure 35. European names with China exposure and positive EPS momentum
图 35. 具有中国业务敞口且每股收益动能积极的欧洲企业

Note: Barclays Research relative rating system: OW = Overweight; EW = Equal Weight; UW = Underweight; RS = Rating Suspended. Note: For full disclosures on each covered company, including details of our company-specific valuation methodology and risks, please refer to https://publicresearch.barcap.com
注：巴克莱研究相对评级体系：OW=增持；EW=中性；UW=减持；RS=评级暂停。注：各覆盖公司的完整披露信息（包括我们针对具体公司的估值方法和风险详情），请参阅 https://publicresearch.barcap.com

Source: FactSet, IBES, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
数据来源：FactSet、IBES、LSEG 数据与分析、巴克莱研究

MW Mining  MW 矿业板块

Mining remains one of the worst performing sectors ytd in Europe, but has recently regained momentum. This is likely mainly due to short squeeze on weaker dollar, inflation hedging and expectations of more China stimulus and doveish Fed repricing. We note, however, that the recent rebound appears to be underpinned by a strengthening trend in earnings, which continues to point to further upside potential. While the unexpectedly robust economic data from China has provided a supportive backdrop, we note that the gap between China economic surprises and Mining relative performance has now closed.
矿业板块仍是欧洲市场年内表现最差的行业之一，但近期重拾上涨势头。这主要可能源于弱势美元引发的空头回补、通胀对冲需求，以及对中国加大刺激力度和美联储鸽派政策重新定价的预期。然而我们注意到，近期反弹似乎得到了盈利改善趋势的支撑，该趋势仍指向进一步上行空间。虽然中国超预期的经济数据提供了支撑背景，但需注意中国经济惊喜指数与矿业板块相对表现之间的差距现已弥合。

Figure 36. Mining EPS Mom is bottoming out supportive of performance ...   图 36. 矿业板块每股盈利环比正筑底回升，为股价表现提供支撑...

Source: IBES, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
数据来源：IBES、伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析、巴克莱研究

Figure 37. ...but price momentum has caught up with positive albeit peaking China economic surprises   图 37. ...但价格动能已与中国经济惊喜指数的积极走势（虽处峰值）同步

Source: IBES, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
数据来源：IBES、伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析、巴克莱研究

Although a strong recovery in China’s property sector remains elusive, we see signs of stabilisation. In our view, a positive inflection in floor space under construction suggests a likely upward EPS revision for mining, while metal prices have firmed up, which helps too.
虽然中国房地产行业的强劲复苏仍难以实现，但我们已观察到企稳迹象。我们认为，在建面积出现积极拐点意味着矿业板块每股收益可能上修，同时金属价格走强也对此形成支撑。

Figure 38. China REIT inflexion can help ...   图 38. 中国 REITs 的拐点有望助力...

Source: IBES, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
资料来源：IBES、LSEG 数据与分析、巴克莱研究

Figure 39.  ... while pricier aluminium prices should bode well for earnings  图 39. ...而铝价上涨应有利于盈利表现

Source: IBES, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
资料来源：IBES、LSEG 数据与分析、巴克莱研究

Despite the recent bounce, positioning in Miners remains low, indicating the trade is not yet crowded. This provides additional room for further inflows if the positive momentum continues.
尽管近期有所反弹，矿业股的持仓水平仍然较低，表明这一交易尚未过热。如果积极势头持续，这将为资金进一步流入提供额外空间。

Figure 40.  Miners crowding remains low  图 40. 矿业股交易拥挤度仍处低位

Source: MSCI, Barclays Research
资料来源：MSCI、巴克莱研究

Figure 41. Mining L/S ratio is slightly picking up but remains low   图 41. 矿业股多空比率小幅回升但仍处于低位

Source: Hazeltree, Barclays Research
来源：Hazeltree，巴克莱研究

However, we recognise that Miners by far display the most negative seasonality in August. It has indeed consistently been the weakest month of the year for the sector. So while we see emerging green shoots for the space, we are happy to stay MW for now, looking for more evidence of a recovery in China and progress on tariffs, before potentially adding more to the sector.
然而我们注意到，矿业板块在 8 月份的季节性表现最为疲弱。这确实是该行业全年表现最差的月份。因此尽管我们看到该领域初现复苏迹象，目前仍维持中性评级，期待看到更多中国经济复苏迹象及关税政策进展后，再考虑增持该板块仓位。

Please see recent note from our sector analyst here. Their key OWs are AAL, NHY and FM.
详情请参阅我们行业分析师的最新报告。他们重点推荐的超配个股包括 AAL、NHY 和 FM。

Figure 42. European sector seasonality - relative monthly return - August typically the worst for Miners 
图 42. 欧洲各行业季节性表现——相对月度回报率（8 月通常是矿业板块表现最差的月份）

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
来源：伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析部、巴克莱研究

OW Luxury, UW Autos  超配奢侈品板块，低配汽车板块

Our recent upgrade of Luxury post sharp ytd underperformance has been a mixed bag, with the sector doing better over the last month, but sentiment on the space remaining stubbornly bearish. We note, however, that relative EPS momentum has started to improve for the sector, but price action continues to lag. Also, recent stabilisation in the US dollar provides some relief, in our view.
我们近期对年内表现大幅落后的奢侈品板块进行评级上调后，市场反应喜忧参半——虽然该板块过去一个月有所回升，但市场情绪仍顽固看空。不过我们注意到，该板块的相对每股收益动能已开始改善，只是股价走势仍显滞后。此外我们认为，近期美元企稳也带来一定支撑。

Figure 43. Luxury earnings momentum is bottoming out, which should support performance in H2  图 43. 奢侈品板块盈利动能正触底反弹，这将支撑下半年表现

Source: IBES, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
数据来源：IBES、LSEG 数据分析、巴克莱研究

Figure 44. Recent US dollar stabilisation should be a positive for the very FX-sensitive Luxury good sector  图 44. 近期美元企稳对汇率高度敏感的奢侈品行业应是利好

Source: IBES, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
数据来源：IBES、LSEG 数据分析、巴克莱研究

Luxury remains highly dependent on the China narrative, ranking as the second most China-sensitive European sector after Mining. Arguably, Chinese consumer demand for Luxury remains soft, with current policy support insufficient to drive a meaningful recovery. But we think more is in the price now, while the sector is also a potential play on the more resilient top-end US consumer, in our view.
奢侈品行业对中国市场依存度仍然很高，在欧洲板块中对华敏感度仅次于矿业。目前中国消费者对奢侈品的需求仍显疲软，现有政策支持尚不足以推动实质性复苏。但我们认为当前股价已较多反映这一预期，同时该板块也可能受益于更具韧性的美国高端消费群体。

Please see the recent note from Carole Madjo, our European Luxury Goods analyst, here. Her key OWs are CFR and RMS.
请参阅我们欧洲奢侈品行业分析师 Carole Madjo 的最新报告。她最看好的增持评级个股是 CFR 和 RMS。

Figure 45. Mining, Luxury, Chemicals and Cap Goods are the most positively correlated sector with Chinese equities   图 45. 矿业、奢侈品、化工品和资本货物是与 A 股正相关性最强的板块

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
资料来源：LSEG 数据与分析、巴克莱研究

Figure 46. Consumer confidence worldwide recovery slowed in June  图 46. 全球消费者信心指数在 6 月复苏放缓

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
来源：伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析部、巴克莱研究

On the more cautious side within the consumer space, we remain UW Autos. We see little respite for earnings amid softer global demand, tariffs threat, pricing pressure and China competition. The Autos sector is arguably a consensus short, so it could bounce strongly on any tariffs deal/headline, but we would likely take the opportunity to lighten positions, if it were to happen, given the prevailing long-term negatives.
在消费领域中我们持更谨慎态度，仍对汽车板块维持减持评级。在全球需求疲软、关税威胁、价格压力和中国竞争加剧的背景下，我们预计该板块盈利难有起色。虽然汽车板块是市场普遍看空的领域，可能因任何关税协议/头条新闻而强劲反弹，但鉴于长期负面因素占主导地位，若出现反弹我们可能会趁机减仓。

Please see two reports from Henning Cosman and Erwann Dagorne, our European Autos analysts, here and here. Their key OWs are AML, CON, RACE, FRVIA, RNO and VOW.
请参阅我们欧洲汽车行业分析师 Henning Cosman 和 Erwann Dagorne 的两份报告（链接 1 与链接 2）。他们重点推荐的超配个股包括阿斯顿马丁（AML）、大陆集团（CON）、法拉利（RACE）、佛吉亚（FRVIA）、雷诺（RNO）和大众汽车（VOW）。

Figure 47. Autos performance is ahead of EPS momentum  图 47. 汽车板块表现领先于每股收益增长势头

Source: IBES, LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
数据来源：IBES、伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析部门、巴克莱研究

Figure 48. German car exports to China keep falling  图 48. 德国对华汽车出口持续下滑

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
数据来源：伦敦证券交易所集团数据与分析部门、巴克莱研究

MW Capital Goods  MW 资本货物

Over the past three months, Cap Goods leadership has broadened, with Electric equipment gaining momentum alongside A&D. Our equity analysts continue to see limited growth in China’s industrial activity this year, suggesting that a more meaningful recovery is needed for this segment to become a core investment theme within that space.
过去三个月，资本品板块的领涨范围有所扩大，电气设备与航空航天及国防板块同步走强。我们的股票分析师仍认为今年中国工业活动增长有限，这意味着该板块需要更显著的复苏才能成为该领域的核心投资主题。

Please see recent note from Vlad Sergievskii, George Featherstone, Timothy Lee, Xin Wang and Jonathan Hurn, our European and UK Cap Goods analysts, on China exposure preferences here and overall sector preferences here. Their key OWs are LR, SAND, SCHP, PRY and KION.
关于中国业务偏好及整体行业偏好，请参阅我们欧洲及英国资本品分析师 Vlad Sergievskii、George Featherstone、Timothy Lee、Xin Wang 和 Jonathan Hurn 的最新报告（中国业务偏好链接，整体行业偏好链接）。他们重点推荐的超配个股包括 LR、SAND、SCHP、PRY 和 KION。

Figure 49. European Electrical Eq have caught up with A&D over the past three months  图 49. 过去三个月欧洲电气设备板块已追平航空航天及国防板块

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research
数据来源：LSEG Data & Analytics，巴克莱研究

Figure 50. China industrial momentum is improving  图 50. 中国工业动能正在改善

Source: Barclays Research
资料来源：巴克莱研究