U.S. trade deal offers initial relief but leaves Europe on the backfoot
美欧贸易协议带来初步缓解 却令欧洲陷入被动

European leaders and analysts are warning that the new U.S.-EU trade deal, while averting a tariff escalation, leaves the region at a disadvantage.
欧洲领导人和分析人士警告称，这份新的美欧贸易协议虽避免了关税升级，却使欧洲地区处于不利地位。

The agreement — which imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods heading to the U.S. — is being called “unbalanced,” with critics arguing that it ultimately puts the region on the backfoot. The duties mark a climb down for the EU just days before a 30% tariff threat was set to kick in, however much negotiation is still set to take place.
这项协议——对大多数输美欧盟商品征收 15%关税——被称作”不平衡协议”，批评者认为这最终将使欧洲处于被动地位。尽管在 30%关税威胁生效前几天，欧盟做出了让步，但后续仍有许多谈判需要进行。

Some goods like aircraft components and certain chemicals are not set to be hit by tariffs, while autos will see duties reduced to the 15% rate. The agreement also includes provisions for the EU purchasing U.S. energy and increasing its investments in the country.
飞机零部件和某些化学品等商品将不受关税影响，而汽车关税将降至 15%。协议还包括欧盟购买美国能源和增加在美投资的条款。

“It’s a climb down from a much worse place,” Cailin Birch, global economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Monday. However, she noted, “a 15% tariff is still a big escalation from where we were pre-Trump 2.0.”
″这是从更糟糕境地做出的退让，”经济学人智库全球经济学家凯琳·伯奇周一在接受 CNBC《欧洲早间财经》采访时表示。但她指出：“15%的关税相比特朗普 2.0 时代前的水平仍是大幅升级。”

Birch also pointed out that a lot of uncertainty remains, with details about the steel and pharmaceutical sector still being unclear.
伯奇还指出仍存在诸多不确定性，钢铁和制药领域的具体条款尚不明确。

European leaders struck similar notes overnight, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz saying that while the EU was able to protect its core interests, he would have welcomed further easing of transatlantic trade.
欧洲领导人连夜表达了类似观点，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨表示，虽然欧盟保住了核心利益，但他原本期待跨大西洋贸易能进一步松绑。

France’s minister for Europe, Benjamin Haddad, meanwhile said in a Google-translated social media post that while the deal would bring “temporary stability” to some sectors, it is “unbalanced” overall.
法国欧洲事务部长本杰明·哈达德通过谷歌翻译在社交媒体发文称，虽然该协议将为某些行业带来”暂时稳定”，但整体上”不平衡”。

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, warned that while the “crippling uncertainty” was over, the damage for Europe is more frontloaded in comparison to the long-term impact on the U.S.
贝伦贝格银行首席经济学家霍尔格·施米丁警告称，虽然”毁灭性不确定性”已经结束，但与美国受到的长期影响相比，欧洲遭受的损害更为前置。

“The deal is asymmetric. The US gets away with a substantial increase in its tariffs on imports from the EU and has secured further EU concessions to boot. In his apparent zero-sum mentality, Trump can claim that as a “win” for him,” he said.
″这份协议不对等。美国大幅提高对欧盟进口商品的关税却未受惩罚，还额外获得了欧盟的让步。以特朗普明显的零和思维来看，他可以宣称这是他的‘胜利’”他说道。

As it will take some time for U.S. consumers to feel the impact of tariffs, Trump’s supporters may not immediately realize they are being hurt by the president’s policies, Schmieding explained. This may encourage Trump to continue to pursue economic policies that are “bad” for the U.S., he added.
施密丁解释道，由于美国消费者需要一段时间才能感受到关税的影响，特朗普的支持者可能不会立即意识到自己正受到总统政策的伤害。他补充说，这可能会鼓励特朗普继续推行对美国”不利”的经济政策。

The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Birch meanwhile pointed out that the U.S. also did not get everything it may have wanted from the deal.
与此同时，《经济学人》智库的伯奇指出，美国也未能从协议中获得它可能想要的一切。

“Both sides are, are kind of set back a bit from this deal,” she said. “The U.S. didn’t make any headway on a lot of issues that have in recent history been critical to their trade approach to the EU. So agricultural standards, the tech industry regulating standard that has been a big bugbear, there was no real mention of those standards whatsoever,” Birch explained, acknowledging that the deal is not yet done.
″双方都因这项协议而有所退让，”她表示。”美国在近期对其欧盟贸易策略至关重要的诸多议题上未能取得进展。无论是农业标准，还是已成为重大障碍的科技行业监管标准，协议中均未实质性提及这些标准，”伯奇解释道，同时承认协议尚未最终敲定。

Ultimately both sides will be calling the deal a win, even if that is for different reasons, William Reinsch, senior adviser and Scholl Chair emeritus with the Economics Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC on Sunday.
战略与国际研究中心经济项目高级顾问兼荣誉主席威廉·莱因施周日向 CNBC 表示，最终双方都会宣称协议是场胜利，尽管各自的理由可能不同。

“If anybody in Europe had said last March that they would agree to 15% tariffs, they would have been kicked out of the room. Now, they’re going to call it a win, which it is, compared to the worst that could have happened,” he said.
“如果在去年三月，欧洲有任何人说他们会同意 15%的关税，他们肯定会被赶出会议室。而现在，他们会称之为胜利——与可能发生的最坏情况相比，这确实算得上胜利。”他说道。

Trump will characterize it as a win, as he has done with other trade frameworks, “because for him the squeeze is more important than the juice,” Reinsch, who is also the Scholl Chair in International Business at CSIS, added. Trump needs to be seen as winning, regardless of what he is exactly achieving, he explained.
特朗普会将其标榜为胜利，就像他对其他贸易框架所做的那样，“因为对他来说，施压比实际成果更重要，”CSIS 国际商务 Scholl 讲席教授 Reinsch 补充道。他解释说，特朗普需要被视为赢家，无论他实际取得了什么成果。

Aurélien Colson, academic co-director of the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business, told CNBC on Monday that “the EU could have pushed for a better outcome, first and foremost by sticking to a strict policy of reciprocity.”
ESSEC 商学院地缘政治与商业研究所学术联席主任 Aurélien Colson 周一告诉 CNBC：“欧盟本可以争取更好的结果，首先应坚持严格的对等原则。”

In response to Trump’s tariff threats, the EU focused on negotiations and delayed its own countermeasures against the U.S. While the bloc was preparing for a no-deal scenario with a long list of potential levies and discussions of deploying its so-called ‘trade bazooka,’ it did not seek to further escalate the conflict with the U.S.
面对特朗普的关税威胁，欧盟将重心放在谈判上，推迟了对美反制措施。尽管欧盟已为无协议局面做好准备，拟定了长长的潜在征税清单并讨论动用所谓”贸易核武器”，但并未寻求进一步升级与美国的贸易冲突。

Colson said Brussels fell into Trump’s trap of combining an extreme tariff rate with a tight deadline. Instead, he argues the EU should have stressed how impactful its retaliation could be, and could also have formed a coalition with other key trading partners.
科尔森表示，布鲁塞尔落入了特朗普设下的陷阱——将极端关税税率与紧迫期限捆绑施压。他认为欧盟本应强调其报复措施可能产生的重大影响，并与其他主要贸易伙伴结成联盟。

“On this occasion the EU blinked first, with heavy concessions,” he said.
″这次欧盟率先让步，做出了重大妥协，”他说道。

Power dynamics and complicated deal-making also put the EU in a tough sport, according to Jurgen Matthes, head of the international economic policy, financial and real estate markets research unit at IW Koeln, and Samina Sultan, senior economist for European economic policy and trade.
科隆经济研究所国际经济政策、金融与房地产市场研究部主任于尔根·马特斯与欧洲经济政策及贸易高级经济学家萨米娜·苏尔坦指出，权力博弈与复杂的谈判过程使欧盟陷入艰难处境。

“The deal at hand is ultimately still justifiable, because, in light of the balance of power, it was unrealistic for Trump to completely take back the present tariffs,” they said according to a CNBC translation.
″当前达成的协议最终仍是合理的，因为考虑到力量对比，特朗普完全撤回现行关税是不现实的，”他们通过 CNBC 的翻译表示。

The EU has the shorter lever because it is more economically reliant on the U.S. due to its trade surplus and export reliance, Matthes and Sultan said.
马特斯和苏尔坦表示，由于欧盟对美贸易顺差和出口依赖度更高，使其在经济上更依赖美国，因此处于相对弱势地位。

“But above all, the EU could not risk an escalation of the trade conflict because we rely on the U.S. with regards to security policy. Trump likely would have pulled that ace out of his sleeve eventually,” they said.
″但最重要的是，欧盟无法承受贸易冲突升级的风险，因为我们在安全政策上依赖美国。特朗普最终很可能会打出这张王牌，”他们表示。