Equity Research

US Conviction List

NEW ADDITION: AON
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European Conviction List

NEW ADDITION: Philips
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APAC Conviction List

NEW ADDITIONS: Jardine Matheson, Namura Shipbuilding
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TRADE POLICY IN FOCUS

USA: President Trump Announces Higher Tariff Rates

BOTTOM LINE: President Trump announced new “reciprocal” tariff rates for most trading partners that had not yet reached a deal with the US. In general, the new rates are lower than the rates announced in April or the rates proposed in letters earlier this month, but they are generally higher than the 10% baseline rate that has been in effect since April. We already assumed the baseline tariff rate would rise to 15% in August and the average effect of these rates would be similar but slightly higher. However, we expect some of these to be negotiated down over the next several weeks, which would put the overall effect roughly in line with our forecast.

1 Aug 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius and others

Asian Equity Perspectives: Favorable trajectory but risk of an air pocket

The latest tariff announcements came in at levels that are broadly in line with our expectations and help reduce policy uncertainty. Together with further Fed easing potentially starting in September, this supports our constructive view on Asian equities. We expect 9% 12m USD price returns for the MXAPJ index, and continue to favor North Asian markets.

1 Aug 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Timothy Moe, CFA and others

European Views: As Good As It Gets (Stehn)

We believe that the EU-US trade deal was the best available for Europe. While the agreement is clearly asymmetric—with a 15% tariff on most EU exports into the US and none in return—it is a decent outcome for Europe in light of the alternatives. With a 15% tariff rate on autos (down from 27.5%) and an eventual 15% duty on pharmaceutical goods, the increase in the effective tariff rate is smaller than we had expected.

1 Aug 2025 | Research | Economics - Sven Jari Stehn

Also see:
Asia in Focus: India: Dealing with 25% tariffs: Shaving growth, adding a cut in Q4 (1 Aug 2025)
European Daily: EU-US Trade Deal—Investment, Energy and Military Equipment: Pledges or Promises? (31 Jul 2025)
Base Metals Comment: Copper: Refined Copper Exempt From Section 232 Tariff, Holding To LME Price Forecast (31 Jul 2025)
Oil Tracker: Prices Rally on Russia Tariffs Threat Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting (31 Jul 2025)
South Korea: Korea-US Trade Deal: Lowered Tariffs and Less Policy Uncertainty (1 Aug 2025)
Mexico Tariffs: Phone Talk Undoes Letter (Ramos) (31 Jul 2025)

View more on the Trade Policy page >