China's carbon emissions may have peaked
中国的碳排放量可能已经达到峰值

If so, it is a significant, symbolic moment
如果是这样，那就是一个重要的、具有象征意义的时刻

May 29th 2025  五月 29th 2025

The rapid growth of China’s economy over the past few decades has come at a high environmental cost to the planet. Mountains of coal have been burned to power factories, releasing tens of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Still more has been belched out in the production of vast quantities of steel and cement to feed construction. Last year China released over 12bn tonnes of the gas, accounting for over 30% of the world’s total emissions.
过去几十年来，中国经济的快速增长给地球带来了巨大的环境代价。堆积如山的煤炭被焚烧到发电厂，向大气中释放了数百亿吨二氧化碳。在生产大量用于建筑业的钢铁和水泥方面，还有更多的石油被淘汰。去年，中国释放了超过 120 亿吨天然气，占世界总排放量的 30% 以上。

But there are signs that China’s carbon-dioxide emissions are now decreasing. Over the 12 -month period which ended in March, emissions were $1\mathrm{\%}$$1\mathrm{\%}$1%1 \% lower than the preceding 12 months, according to analysis published on May 15th by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
但有迹象表明，中国的二氧化碳排放量现在正在减少。根据能源和清洁空气研究中心 5 月 15 日发布的分析，在截至 3 月的 12 个月期间，排放量 $1\mathrm{\%}$$1\mathrm{\%}$1%1 \% 低于前 12 个月
(crea), a think-tank in Finland. The news has prompted some cautious celebration among environmentalists. China’s carbon-dioxide emissions are so huge that, if the trend continues and they are shown to have actually peaked, that could alter the trajectory of global emissions. (America’s peaked in 2007, Britain’s in the 1970s.)
（crea） 的 S Mc.这一消息在环保主义者中引发了一些谨慎的庆祝。中国的二氧化碳排放量如此巨大，如果这种趋势继续下去，并且它们实际上已经达到峰值，这可能会改变全球排放的轨迹。（美国在 2007 年达到顶峰，英国在 1970 年代达到顶峰。

China’s emissions have fallen before. In 2022 they dipped after the country’s strict covid-19 controls strangled economic activity. But when factories restarted production, they shot back up again. This time, China’s factories are humming away even as emissions are falling.
中国的排放量以前就下降过。2022 年，在该国严格的 covid-19 控制扼杀了经济活动后，它们下跌了。但当工厂重新开始生产时，它们又重新开始了。这一次，中国的工厂在排放量下降的同时，却嗡嗡作响。

That is because they are becoming less reliant on burning fossil fuels for power. Coal is still the mainstay of China’s grid. But the country has also been installing more clean energy than the rest of the world put together. About half of the nuclear power stations under construction worldwide are in China. Last year the country installed 79 gigawatts (gw) of wind power on top of an existing 440gw (for comparison, the entire power capacity of Britain, from all forms of generation, is about 100 gw ).
这是因为他们越来越不依赖燃烧化石燃料发电。煤炭仍然是中国电网的支柱。但该国安装的清洁能源也超过了世界其他地区的总和。全球在建核电站中约有一半位于中国。去年，该国在现有的 440GW 风电基础上安装了 79 吉瓦 （GW） 的风电（相比之下，英国各种形式的发电总容量约为 100 GW）。

Solar power is being installed at a particularly blistering pace. A record 277 gw of capacity was plugged into the grid during 2024 alone, on top of an existing 600 gw . (America’s total solar capacity is around 240 gw .) The speed
太阳能的安装速度特别快。仅在 2024 年，就达到了创纪录的 277 GW 容量，而现有的容量为 600 GW。（美国的太阳能总装机容量约为 240 吉瓦。速度
of additions has only accelerated in 2025. Deserts and hillsides across the country are being blanketed with dark silicon panels. All this has allowed clean-power production to outpace growth in demand.
的新增人数在 2025 年才加速。全国各地的沙漠和山坡上都覆盖着深色硅板。所有这些都使清洁能源生产的速度超过了需求的增长速度。

A few things could still push China’s emissions up again. One is the weather. If it gets too hot and dry, then reservoirs will run low and hydropower, which supplies about a tenth of China’s power, could falter. At the same time, demand for electricity would spike as people turn up their air conditioners to full blast.
一些因素仍可能再次推动中国的排放量上升。一个是天气。如果天气变得太热和太干，那么水库就会水位低，而水电（供应中国电力的十分之一）可能会步履蹒跚。与此同时，随着人们将空调开到最大功率，对电力的需求将激增。

To make up the difference, officials would probably end up burning more coal. They will want to avoid a repeat of 2022, which saw power cuts in southern China. And this summer is shaping up to be another hot one. Crops across northern China are already wilting. The National Energy Administration has warned that peak electricity demand could be about 100gw higher than in 2024.
为了弥补差额，官员们最终可能会燃烧更多的煤炭。他们将希望避免重蹈 2022 年覆辙，当时中国南方地区停电。而今年夏天将迎来另一个炎热的夏天。中国北方的农作物已经枯萎。国家能源局警告称，峰值电力需求可能比 2024 年高出约 100GW。

Another risk is that the renewable roll-out could start to slow down, even as power demand continues to increase, says Lauri Myllyvirta of crea. China’s power grid was set up around coal. It will require big upgrades to allow all the renewable energy coming online to be transferred over long distances or stored (since it can be generated only when nature co-operates). China also needs reforms to its power market to make sure clean power is efficiently dispatched to regions where it is needed. The coal lobby, a powerful political force, is trying to delay the reforms.
另一个风险是，即使电力需求持续增加，可再生能源的推广也可能开始放缓，crea 的 Lauri Myllyvirta 说。中国的电网是围绕煤炭建立的。它将需要进行重大升级，以允许所有上线的可再生能源被远距离传输或储存（因为它只有在自然界合作的情况下才能产生）。中国还需要对其电力市场进行改革，以确保清洁电力有效地分配到需要的地区。煤炭游说团体是一股强大的政治力量，正试图推迟改革。

After years of breakneck expansion, China’s renewables industry is also now facing some new uncertainties. At the moment, when companies build a wind or solar farm, they can sell the power it generates to the grid at a guaranteed rate. But, starting on June 1st, newly built farms will be forced to sell their power at market rates, which will probably be lower. Some solarpanel manufacturers, meanwhile, are struggling to make ends meet amid a glut of production.
经过多年的高速扩张，中国可再生能源行业现在也面临着一些新的不确定性。目前，当公司建造风能或太阳能发电厂时，他们可以以有保证的价格将其产生的电力出售给电网。但是，从 6 月 1 日开始，新建的发电厂将被迫以市场价格出售电力，市场价格可能会更低。与此同时，一些太阳能电池板制造商在生产过剩的情况下正在努力维持生计。

Still, the question is no longer about whether China’s emissions will peak. If it has not already happened, it is likely to do so in the next couple of years. Analysts are more concerned about what happens next. China’s emissions do not just have to fall but must do so quickly to avoid undercutting global
不过，问题不再是中国的排放是否会达到峰值。如果它还没有发生，它很可能会在未来几年内发生。分析师更关心接下来会发生什么。中国的排放量不仅必须下降，而且必须迅速下降，以避免削弱全球排放量
efforts to combat climate change. China has promised to bring its net emissions to zero, ie, become “carbon neutral”, by 2060. To do that they will have to fall a lot faster than 1% a year.
应对气候变化的努力。中国承诺到 2060 年实现净排放为零，即实现“碳中和”。要做到这一点，他们必须以每年 1% 以上的速度下跌。

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