Cry in Crude, AI Melt Up, and Gold Seasonals
原油哀鸣、人工智能暴涨与黄金季节性走势
Smoked 被打败了
Brent net managed money 80% of 5yr max (per June 17).
布伦特净管理资金达到五年最大值的 80%(截至 6 月 17 日)。
Source: Bloomberg, GS 来源:彭博社,高盛
They bought the oil rip
他们买入了油价反弹
Managed money category has chased the oil spike.
管理资金类别追逐了油价的飙升。
Source: LSEG Workspace 来源:LSEG Workspace
Can't make this up 这简直难以置信
CTAs were caught short going into the oil squeeze and they had to buy in panic. They even managed going long, and are now seeing the big down convexity kick in. We call it: Short gamma no theta.
CTA 在油价挤压前被套空头,不得不恐慌买入。他们甚至成功做多,现在正看到巨大的下行凸性效应显现。我们称之为:短伽马无 theta。
Source: GS 来源:GS
Geo hedge crashing 地缘政治对冲崩盘
The geopolitical hedge, OVX, is putting in a huge down day... but has much more room to reset.
地缘政治对冲工具 OVX 正经历大幅下跌……但还有更大的调整空间。
Source: LSEG Workspace 来源:LSEG Workspace
Hurtful 令人痛心
Just in time for the great oil puke... HFs are now O/W Energy stocks relative to the Russel 3000 for the first time in more than five years.
正值原油大跌之际……对冲基金相对于 Russell 3000 指数首次在五年多来超配能源股。
Source: GS 来源:GS
The oil market was over-supplied to start with
油市一开始就供应过剩
WTI oil price and US oil inventories. Full oil note packed with charts from earlier today here.
WTI 原油价格与美国原油库存。今天早些时候的完整油市报告附带大量图表,详见此处。
Source: Macrobond 来源:Macrobond
Chilled or fearful? 冷静还是恐惧?
All depends on what you are looking at. VIX is up substantially over the past 10 days or so, while SPX has done basically nothing.
一切取决于你关注的是什么。VIX 在过去大约 10 天内大幅上涨,而 SPX 基本上没有变化。
Source: LSEG Workspace 来源:LSEG Workspace
NDX seasonality 重试 错误原因
The big bull starts in July usually... 重试 错误原因
Source: LSEG Workspace 来源:LSEG Workspace
Be an AI leader 重试 错误原因
"This is the GS AI leaders-vs-laggards pair trade (since the new world was revealed). While it may have felt like a one-way freight train, the frequency and magnitude of the retracements is noteworthy. Also noteworthy, of course, is the recent melt up to fresh highs." (Tony P) 重试 错误原因
Source: Bloomberg 来源:彭博社
Will ATH help? 重试 错误原因
Non dealers in US index futures could get much more long... 重试 错误原因
Source: GS 来源:GS
Got the gold chain for Nikki beach?
给 Nikki 海滩准备好金链了吗?
Gold seasonality is strong from here...Full gold note here. 重试 错误原因
Source: Equity Clock 重试 错误原因
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