What if America’s red states are about to lose their cheap-housing advantage?
美國紅州是否即將失去其低價住房優勢？

Why do so many Americans move from blue states to red ones? Ron DeSantis, Florida’s governor, crows that “a collapse in the quality of life” in blue states is making residents flee. During a debate in 2023, he taunted California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, for his state’s street crime, woke schools and public defecation by homeless people—he even held up a “poop map” of San Francisco for the cameras. “They actually at one point ran out of u-Hauls in the state of California because so many people were leaving,” he gloated.
為何有那麼多美國人從藍州搬往紅州？佛羅里達州州長羅恩·德桑蒂斯得意地宣稱，藍州的「生活品質崩潰」正使居民紛紛離去。在 2023 年的辯論中，他嘲諷加利福尼亞州州長加文·紐森的州內街頭犯罪、醒來學校以及無家可歸者公廁——他甚至向鏡頭展示了一張舊金山「糞便地圖」。他得意洋洋地說：「他們其實一度在加利福尼亞州沒有 u-Haul 車了，因為離開的人太多了。」

The exodus is real enough. A hefty 191,000 more Californians moved to Trump-voting states in 2024 than vice versa, according to The Economist’s analysis of numbers from Melissa, a location-data firm. A firm called Conservative Move specialises in “moving families right”. The culture-war issues Mr DeSantis cites play a role, but the main driver is the cost of living. The average home price in Los Angeles is nearly four times that in Houston, Texas. In 2023, 34% of Californians said housing costs had made them consider leaving the state. All of the ten most expensive states to live in, according to an index compiled by Samuel Trachtman of uc Berkeley, voted for Kamala Harris last year. All of the ten cheapest voted for Donald Trump.
「移民潮確實存在。根據《經濟學人》分析，地點數據公司 Melissa 的數據顯示，2024 年從加利福尼亞州移民到川普選區州的人數比相反方向多出 191,000 人。有一家名為 Conservative Move 的公司專門從事『將家庭遷往右派地區』服務。德桑蒂斯先生提到的文化戰爭議題確實發揮了作用，但主要推動力是生活成本。洛杉磯的平均房屋價格幾乎是德克薩斯州休斯頓的四倍。2023 年，34%的加利福尼亞州民表示房屋成本讓他們考慮離開該州。根據加州大學柏克萊分校的 Samuel Trachtman 編制的指數，居住成本最高的前十個州去年都選了卡瑪拉·哈里斯，而居住成本最低的前十個州則都選了唐納·川普。」

But what if red states’ cheap-housing advantage were to start shrinking? That may already be happening in places: a study by Edward Glaeser of Harvard University and Joseph Gyourko of the University of Pennsylvania published in May found that new homebuilding in big sunbelt metro areas such as Atlanta, Dallas, Miami and Phoenix has dramatically slowed, leading to higher prices. And on June 30th Mr Newsom signed a reform to make it harder for nimbys to block new housing in California–which could eventually make living there more affordable.
但若紅州的便宜住房優勢開始縮小，會怎麼樣？這可能已經在某些地區發生了：哈佛大學的愛德華·格萊瑟（Edward Glaeser）和賓夕法尼亞大學的喬瑟夫·喬爾科（Joseph Gyourko）於五月發表的研究發現，亞特蘭大、達拉斯、邁阿密和鳳凰城等大型陽光帶都市區的新房建設已大幅放緩，導致價格上漲。而六月三十日，紐森先生（Mr Newsom）簽署了一項改革，使加州的鄰里居民更難阻擋新住房的興建——這最終可能使該地區的居住成本更加可負擔。

Between 2000 and 2024 home prices in Miami rose faster than in any other of the 20 big metropolitan areas that make up the s&p CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Home Price nsa Index, bar Los Angeles and San Diego. Tampa was 5th; Phoenix, 10th. When prices rise in a neighbourhood, it is a signal to build more homes there. Developers in the sunbelt used to respond quickly to rising demand, but “that has become much less true,” observe Mr Glaeser and Mr Gyourko (see chart).
在 2000 年至 2024 年之間，邁阿密的房屋價格在標普核心邏輯/Case-Shiller 20 城綜合房屋價格指數（ NSA）所涵蓋的 20 個大型都市區中，其上漲速度超過了其他所有地區，僅次於洛杉磯和聖地牙哥。坦帕位列第五；鳳凰城則排第十。當一個社區的價格上漲時，這是一個在那裡建設更多房屋的信號。陽光帶的開發商過去能夠快速響應需求增長，但格萊瑟先生和喬爾科先生指出，「這已經變得遠不如以前真實了」（見圖表）。

One possible explanation is that some sunbelt cities are reaching the limits of sprawl. They started growing rapidly after the widespread adoption of air- conditioning made Dixie summers bearable. For decades builders could add new suburban homes by paving over farmland. But at some point the supply of land within a reasonable commute of the city centre (typically by car), is exhausted. That point is now, suggests Daryl Fairweather of Redfin, a property website: “the good places are already taken.”
一個可能的解釋是，一些太陽帶城市已經達到擴張的極限。在空調廣泛普及後，使 Dixie 夏天變得可忍受，這些城市開始快速發展。數十年來，建商可以通過鋪設農田來添加新的郊區房屋。但在某個時候，市中心的合理通勤範圍內（通常由汽車通勤）的土地供應將會枯竭。Redfin 的 Daryl Fairweather 稱，這個時刻現在已經到來：“好地方已經被佔據了。”

The obvious solution is to build upwards. However, it turns out that red states have more red tape than they realised. Alex Armlovich of the Niskanen Centre, a think-tank, compared zoning rules in Los Angeles (notorious for its nimbys) and Atlanta (the commercial capital of Georgia). They were surprisingly hard to tell apart. Both cities ban the building of apartments on most of their land.
顯然的解決方案是向上發展。然而，結果是紅州比他們意識到的還有更多的紅籌。Niskanen Centre 的 Alex Armlovich，一家智库，比較了洛杉磯（以其鄰近人士而聞名）和亞特蘭大（喬治亞的商業首都）。他們的區域規劃規則令人驚訝地難以區分。這兩座城市都禁止在大多數土地上建造公寓。

Other regulations have grown more cumbersome, too. Jay Knight, a developer in Atlanta, says it used to take 90 days to zone a parcel of land and another 90 to get a permit to build on it; now he budgets at least a year for each. Robert Dietz, the chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, estimates that 15 years ago 30% of workers in the construction industry were office workers dealing with red tape; today it is 40%. Mr Glaeser and Mr Gyourko speculate that the educated folks who moved to the sunbelt for cheaper housing may then have turned nimby to preserve their new neighbourhoods.
其他規定也變得更加複雜。亞特蘭大的開發商 Jay Knight 表示，過去劃定一塊土地需要 90 天，而獲得建築許可又需要 90 天；如今他預算每項至少需要一年。全國房屋建築商協會首席經濟學家 Robert Dietz 估計，15 年前建築業 30%的工人是處理紅章的辦公室人員；如今已達 40%。Glaeser 先生和 Gyourko 先生推測，那些為了更便宜的住房而搬往陽光帶受教育程度較高的人，可能會轉變為 NIMBY 主義者來保護他們的新社區。

The realtor-in-chief is adding headaches, too. Tariffs could raise the cost of building materials: 25% of the lumber used in American construction comes from Canada. Tougher immigration enforcement could make it harder to find bricklayers. Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors says that one-third of workers in the construction industry are in America illegally. “The industry is bracing for big raids,” says a construction boss in Texas. “If they start rounding more workers up it would bring many projects to a halt: I’m talking highways, hospitals, data centres, schools. I’m talking about building America.”
房地產界的領導者也正增添煩惱。關稅可能會提高建築材料的成本：美國建築中使用的木材有 25%來自加拿大。更嚴格的移民執法可能會讓找磚匠變得更加困難。全國房地產協會的勞倫斯·雲表示，建築業三分之一的工人是非法移民。“該行業正在為大規模突擊做準備，”德州的建築主管說。“如果他們開始抓更多工人，許多項目將會停擺：我指的是高速公路、醫院、數據中心、學校。我指的是為美國建設。”

Meanwhile, in California, Democrats are finally removing obstacles to building. The new reform exempts most urban housing from review under ceqa, a widely abused environmental law that lets anyone sue anyone to halt development. Greens use it, naturally. Unions use it to force builders to pay higher wages–or face endless environmental objections. NIMBYs use it with glee.
同時，在加利福尼亞州，民主黨終於移除了建築的障礙。新的改革規定，大多數城市住房免於在 CEQA（加州環境品質法）下接受審查，這項廣泛被濫用的環境法規允許任何人告訴任何人以停止開發。綠色人士自然地使用它。工會用它來迫使建商支付更高的工資——否則面臨無盡的環境反對。反對在鄉邊開發的人們則興高采烈地使用它。

In 2020 ceqa lawsuits sought to block the equivalent of nearly half the year’s housing production, according to Jennifer Hernandez, a lawyer who studies land use. “ceqa is the law that swallowed California,” says Scott Wiener, a state senator for San Francisco and a co-author of the reforms. Weakening it “represents the single best chance in decades” to restore growth, says Judge Glock of the Manhattan Institute, a think-tank.
2020 年，根據研究土地使用的律師詹妮弗·赫南德茲（Jennifer Hernandez）的說法，ceqa 訴訟試圖阻止幾乎半年的房屋產量。舊金山州參議員、改革法案的共同作者斯科特·維納（Scott Wiener）說：「ceqa 是吞噬加利福尼亞的法律。」削弱它「代表數十年來最好的機會」來恢復增長，曼哈頓研究所（Manhattan Institute）的法官格洛克（Judge Glock）說，該研究所是一家智库。

If the red-state house-price advantage shrinks a lot, the consequences would be widely felt. The most dynamic cities in blue states have very high wages, and California has weather “like the Garden of Eden”, says Mr Armlovich. If such places actually made it easy to build, the exodus from blue states to red could reverse, he reckons.
如果紅州的房屋價格優勢大幅縮小，後果將會廣泛感受到。藍州的動態城市擁有非常高的工資，加利福尼亞州「像伊甸園一樣」度過了難關，阿爾莫維奇先生（Mr Armlovich）說。如果這些地方真的容易建造，他推測，從藍州到紅州的移民潮可能會反轉。

That could have political effects. The conventional wisdom is that blue states will keep shrinking as a share of America’s population, and so will lose members of Congress and electoral-college votes. (California is projected to lose four or five of its 54 seats after the 2030 census.) But if the exodus dwindles, that might not happen. Such a shift would also undercut a potent Republican talking point, argues Mr Glock: that people vote with their feet and flock to red states because they are better governed and more liveable.
這可能會產生政治影響。傳統觀點認為，藍色州將持續縮小其在美国人口中的比例，因此也會失去國會議員席位和選舉人團投票權。（加利福尼亞州預計在 2030 年人口普查後會失去其 54 個席位中的四到五個。）但如果移民潮減緩，這種情況可能不會發生。高爾克先生認為，這種轉變也會削弱共和黨一個有力的口號：人們會隨著腳投票，湧向紅色州，因為它們治理得更好，更宜居。

Some red-state politicians are waking up to the threat. Texas recently passed several yimby reforms: making it easier to build homes in commercial areas, lifting restrictions on lot sizes and weakening what Texans call the “tyrants’ veto” that lets neighbours block new construction. But fighting nimbyism is hard. Even if a state government wants to allow more building, local authorities, beholden to local homeowners, often find ways to thwart it. The brick-blockers who blight blue states are coming for red ones, too.  ■
一些紅色州的政客正意識到這個威脅。德克薩斯州最近通過了幾項 yimby 改革：使在商業區建房屋更容易，解除對佔地面積的限制，並削弱德克薩斯州人稱的「暴君否決權」，即鄰居可以阻擋新建築。但打擊 nimby 主義很困難。即使州政府想允許更多建築，地方政府，受到本地房產所有者的牽制，往往會找到方法來阻撓。那些阻礙藍色州的磚頭封鎖者，也將來到紅色州了。■