Equity Research
Artificial intelligence: A monthly roundup
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Hong Kong's IPO market has experienced a resurgence, with 51 companies listed raising HK$124bn in capital year-to-date, and over 200 companies in the pipeline. We summarize the key investor questions:
- Why is HK's IPO market becoming more active?
- Why are A shares and ADRs pursuing dual listings in HK?
- Is this a sentiment boost or liquidity drain?
- Who is participating in these IPOs?
- What factors drive post-IPO performance?
- What are the spillover effects to onshore and sector peers?
- What are the implications for post-IPO indices and Southbound inclusion?
- What are the investment implications?
16 Jul 2025 | 4:20pm| 21pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Si Fu, Ph.D. and others
US equities have rallied from April lows (SPX up +25%, NDX up +35% from year lows) and are near all-time highs. The SPX average stock 3-month implied volatility of 29 is below its 3-month realized volatility of 36. For investors holding stocks that have outperformed, we view this backdrop as particularly attractive for replacing stock with long calls.
16 Jul 2025 | 4:59pm| 11pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and others
IN THE SPOTLIGHT
SK Hynix Inc. (000660.KS): HBM speed bump in 2026; downgrade to Neutral
We downgrade SK Hynix (Hynix) to Neutral from Buy with an updated TP of W310,000 implying 5% upside. While we continue to be constructive on the long-term outlook for the HBM market powered by the rising need of the high bandwidth to improve the efficiency of AI workloads by both the GPU and ASIC customers, we believe HBM pricing could decline for the first time in 2026, with increasing competition and pricing power gradually shifting to the major customer where Hynix has an outsized exposure.
17 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity - Giuni Lee and others
GC Tech: China AI in expansion; Inspur up to Buy; Piotech down to Neutral
With improving GPU supply to the China market, new GPU platforms in 2H25 driving a new product cycle, and growing local chipset platforms to capture the generative AI demand in China, we reiterate our positive view on the China AI servers supply chain and upgrade Inspur to Buy from Neutral. We review our Greater China Technology coverage, and downgrade Piotech on relatively lower upside against our coverage.
16 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity - Allen Chang and others
Kakao Corp. (035720.KS): On the cusp of AI transformation; reinstate Kakao at Buy
We reinstate Kakao Corp. at Buy with a 12-month target price of W85,000, implying 52% upside potential. We believe KakaoTalk messenger is positioned for a transformative upgrade that could reshape online user behavior through its recently announced OpenAI partnership and multi-agent AI integration, scheduled for November launch..
NAVER Corp. (035420.KS): Downgrade to Neutral on Search risks posed by gen AI
We downgrade NAVER from Buy to Neutral, mainly driven by our more conservative outlook for the company’s most profitable business, Search. While the near term growth outlook is relatively solid, the launch of consumer generative AI (c-gen AI) services on Kakao’s messenger platform KakaoTalk will likely pose a material risk for NAVER as it could potentially impact search user behavior in the near term and lead to earnings pressure in the LT.
16 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity - Eric Cha and others
Also see
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA): Our initial thoughts on the potential reversal of export controls on H20 to China
Global Datacenters: Supply/demand update: Improving demand picture extends tightness through 2025 + sector read-across
AMERICAS FINANCIAL SERVICES: 2Q25 EARNINGS
Morgan Stanley & Co. (MS): 2Q25 EPS: Healthy capital markets and wealth management; estimates are largely unchanged
17 Jul 2025 | 8:19am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Richard Ramsden and others
Bank of America Corp. (BAC): First Take: Much better than feared, on in-line earnings, and reiterated NII guide
16 Jul 2025 | 7:38pm| 7pg| Research | Equity-Richard Ramsden and others
Prologis Inc. (PLD): 2Q25 First Take: Increasing low end of 2025 FFO guidance
16 Jul 2025 | 9:45pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Caitlin Burrows and others
Progressive Corp. (PGR): First Take: Strong June Results with Underwriting-Driven EPS Beat and PIF Growth Beat
16 Jul 2025 | 9:45pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Robert Cox and others
BlackRock Inc. (BLK): Stock pullback overdone, as EPS outlook is unchanged and organic growth remains solid
16 Jul 2025 | 9:49am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Blostein, CFA and others
PNC Financial Services (PNC): First Take - Stronger results, with largely unchanged full year revenue guidance but favorable mix shift
16 Jul 2025 | 7:43pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Richard Ramsden and others
- Company HighlightsDiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY): Global mobility growth at the forefront of robotaxi commercialization; initiate at Buy16 Jul 2025 | 4:12am| 59pg| Research | Equity-Ronald Keung, CFA and othersVirgin Australia Holdings (VGN.AX): Repositioned to participate in an attractive market with room for more improvement; initiate at Buy16 Jul 2025 | 10:08pm| 30pg| Research | Equity-Niraj Shah and othersHorizon Robotics (9660.HK): J6B bring-up; entry level ADAS solution upgrades; product expansions support volume/ ASP growth16 Jul 2025 | 10:30pm| 7pg| Research | Equity-Allen Chang and othersRio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AX): 2Q25 result: Strongest 2Q production in ~5yrs, new CEO announced; Buy16 Jul 2025 | 9:28pm| 10pg| Research | Equity-Paul Young and othersAspeed (5274.TWO): Revisiting estimates on potentially slower adoption of AST2700 for AI server; TP to NT$5,850 (from NT$6,000), reiterate Buy16 Jul 2025 | 11:23pm| 10pg| Research | Equity-Evelyn Yu and othersJohnson & Johnson (JNJ): 2Q25 Earnings First Take -- Solid Beat/Raise Showcasing Ongoing Momentum Where it Matters16 Jul 2025 | 7:56pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Asad Haider, CFA and others
- Industry HighlightsAustralia Metals & Mining: Cash preservation to trump lithium production; PLS & LTR to Sell, IGO to Neutral; Preview Jun-Qs & FY26 outlooks16 Jul 2025 | 6:59pm| 44pg| Research | Equity-Hugo Nicolaci and othersAmericas Brokers & Asset Managers:Alternative Asset Managers: Media Reports of Pending E.O. to allow 401(k) allocations to Private Markets17 Jul 2025 | 3:29am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Blostein, CFA and othersAerospace & Defense: 2Q25 earnings preview16 Jul 2025 | 4:00pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Noah Poponak, CFA and othersAmericas Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P: Staying Selective in E&P: Highlight FCF, Inventory and Gas Exposure in EQT/EXE; Remain Relatively Cautious on OXY17 Jul 2025 | 8:51am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and othersGlobal Robotaxi: Raising Robotaxi TAM and Fleet size in China on operators' rising deployment; 10%/29% penetration rate by 2030/35E16 Jul 2025 | 4:19am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Allen Chang and othersAmericas Banks: Regional: Key Takeaways from MTB and FHN Earnings17 Jul 2025 | 5:14am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Ryan M. Nash, CFA and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYGOAL Kickstart: Selectively 'tariff-fied': Few signs of broad tariff risk pricing, but selective impacts15 Jul 2025 | 3:14am| 29pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Andrea Ferrario and others2025 Portfolio Passport: Analyzing foreign sales exposure of US firms15 Jul 2025 | 5:50am| 34pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and othersUS Weekly Kickstart: Investor feedback to our revised S&P 500 forecasts12 Jul 2025 | 4:16am| 25pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and others
- OPTIONSMacro Catalyst Reactions (15-Jul-2025)15 Jul 2025 | 9:11pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallOptimal Overwrites this week (14-Jul-25)14 Jul 2025 | 10:34pm| 17pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and othersTop 25 Tactical Trades for Earnings Season10 Jul 2025 | 5:03pm| 28pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and others
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
- All
- Upgrades
- Downgrades
- Initiations
- CL Adds
- CL Removes
SK Hynix Inc. (000660.KS): HBM speed bump in 2026; downgrade to Neutral
17 Jul 2025 | 7:18am| 27pg| Research | Equity-Giuni Lee and others
Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN.AX): Repositioned to participate in an attractive market with room for more improvement; initiate at Buy
16 Jul 2025 | 10:08pm| 30pg| Research | Equity-Niraj Shah and others
I
NAVER Corp. (035420.KS): Downgrade to Neutral on Search risks posed by gen AI
16 Jul 2025 | 8:54pm| 13pg| Research | Equity-Eric Cha and others
Kakao Corp. (035720.KS): On the cusp of AI transformation; reinstate Kakao at Buy
16 Jul 2025 | 8:50pm| 33pg| Research | Equity-Eric Cha and others
Latest research
Colombian Lending in Pictures: May 2025: Stronger loan growth, but lower profitability
17 Jul 2025 | 10:41am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Tito Labarta and others
China Robotaxis: The Road to Commercialization [Replay]
17 Jul 2025 | 10:37am| Research | Equity-Allen Chang and others
Valero Energy Corp. (VLO): 2Q Preview: Favorable Long-Term Refining Story Drives Upside to 2026 Consensus; Buy
17 Jul 2025 | 10:17am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and others
PNC Financial Services (PNC): Modestly higher full year NII growth, with sustained growth rate in 2026
17 Jul 2025 | 9:58am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Richard Ramsden and others
First Industrial Realty Trust (FR): 2Q25 First Take: FFO guidance narrowed, midpoint reiterated
17 Jul 2025 | 9:34am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Caitlin Burrows and others
Genesis Minerals Ltd. (GMD.AX): 4Q25 in-line; FY26 guidance update to come; Tower Hill rail line moved; Neutral
17 Jul 2025 | 8:59am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Hugo Nicolaci and others
Americas Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P: Staying Selective in E&P: Highlight FCF, Inventory and Gas Exposure in EQT/EXE; Remain Relatively Cautious on OXY
17 Jul 2025 | 8:51am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and others
CAR Group (CAR.AX): First Take: CEO transition and positive/reassuring FY26 outlook; Buy
17 Jul 2025 | 8:48am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Kane Hannan, CFA and others
SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG): 2Q25 First Take: Beat and raise driven by debt and preferred equity portfolio outcomes
17 Jul 2025 | 8:20am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Caitlin Burrows and others
Morgan Stanley & Co. (MS): 2Q25 EPS: Healthy capital markets and wealth management; estimates are largely unchanged
17 Jul 2025 | 8:19am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Richard Ramsden and others
Rating changes (last 24 hrs)
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Featured Media
11:48
Research Unplugged: Resuming Coverage: Key Debates & Top Ideas in Emerging Biotech17 Jul 2025 | 4:01am| Equity Research
DAILY ROUNDUPS
The 720: Kakao Corp Initiation, Downgrades - SK Hynix & NAVER, Virgin Australia, Global Datacenters, Horizon Robotics, HK IPO FAQs, US Tariffs
17 Jul 2025 | 7:27am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
Midday Market Intelligence: reachable
17 Jul 2025 | 12:54am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
16 Jul 2025 | 8:14pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
webcast: Global
17 Jul 2025 | 5:30pm HK | 5:30am NY | 10:30am LN
We will discuss our initiation of 26 stocks across the semiconductor, semi cap equipment, and EDA software industries, including 12 fresh Buy...Read more
James Schneider, Ph.D., US Semis, Telecom & IT Services Analyst
Allen Chang, Head of Greater China Technology Research
Passcode: 901701; Meeting ID: 990 6692 7562
Global Investment Research
webcast: Global
17 Jul 2025 | 8am NY | 1pm LN | 8pm HK
We will discuss our views on the supply-demand picture for silicon wafers, SiC substrate, GaN devices, and IGBT, and highlight the implications for...Read more
Allen Chang, Head of Greater China Technology Research
Atsushi Ikeda, Japan Chemicals Analyst
Daiki Takayama, Head of Asia Technology Research
Verena Jeng, Greater China Technology Analyst
Alexander Duval, EU Technology Analyst
Chris Hussey, Head of US Research Merchandising
Passcode: 356792; Meeting ID: 990 4937 0586
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
17 Jul 2025 | 11am NY | 4pm LN | 11pm HK
Paxos is a crypto company that offers stablecoin issuing, stablecoin payments, and crypto brokerage services. They issue their own stablecoin, USDG,...Read more
Chad (Charles Cascarilla), Co-Founder and CEO, Paxos
James Yaro, Diversified Financials Analyst
Will Nance, Payments & Financial Technology Analyst
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
17 Jul 2025 | 1pm NY | 6pm LN | 1am HK(+1)
Join us to discuss our top ideas and themes across Natural Resources as we leg it into 2Q25 earnings season and deeper into summer.
Neil Mehta, Americas Natural Resources Equity Research
Carly Davenport, Utilities Research
Brian Lee, Clean Technology Research
John Mackay, Midstream Research
Ati Modak, Energy Services Research
Mike Harris, Metals & Mining Research
Chris Hussey, US Research Merchandising
UPCOMING FEATURED CONFERENCES
European AI and Semis Symposium
30-31 Jul 2025 | London | Virtual
Register | Agenda
Asia Leaders Conference
3-5 Sep 2025 | Hong Kong with virtual access
Register
European Medtech & Healthcare Services Conference
3-4 Sep 2025 | London
Register
32nd Annual Global Retailing Conference
3-4 Sep 2025 | New York
Register
Communacopia + Technology Conference
8-11 Sep 2025 | San Francisco
Register
European Communacopia Conference
16-17 Sep 2025 | London
Register
14th German Corporate Conference
22-24 Sep 2025 | Munich
Register
PAST CONFERENCES REPLAYS / TAKEAWAYS
