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Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Ticks Higher In June
美联储最青睐的通胀指标在六月上升

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Jul 31, 2025 - 08:45 PM

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) which pulled it up 2.8% YoY (hotter than the +2.7% YoY expected) - the hottest since February...
美联储最喜欢的通胀指标——核心 PCE 环比上涨 0.3%(符合预期),同比上涨 2.8%(高于预期的同比+2.7%),为 2 月以来最高水平……

Source: Bloomberg  来源:彭博社

Not exactly the hyped-up inflationary surge the tariff fearmongers had been pushing.
这并不是那些关税恐慌者所炒作的通胀激增。

Services inflation is accelerating as are Durable Goods costs on a MoM basis...
服务业通胀加速,耐用品成本环比也在上升……

Source: Bloomberg  来源:彭博社

Headline PCE rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) and +2.6% YoY (hotter than expected)...
核心 PCE 环比上涨 0.3%(符合预期),同比上涨 2.6%(高于预期)...

Source: Bloomberg  来源:彭博社

At the headline level, all the sectors (aside from non-profits) are accelerating...
在整体层面,除非营利组织外,所有行业都在加速……

Source: Bloomberg  来源:彭博社

Super Core PCE - Services Ex-Shelter - dropped to +3.18% YoY in June...
超级核心 PCE——剔除住房服务——6 月同比降至+3.18%...

Source: Bloomberg  来源:彭博社

Healthcare costs are starting to pick up (not exactly tariff-driven)...
医疗保健成本开始上升(并非完全由关税驱动)...

Source: Bloomberg  来源:彭博社

Both income and spending rose 0.3% MoM in June (after May's surprise decline in both)...
6 月份收入和支出均环比增长 0.3%(继 5 月份两者意外下降之后)...

Source: Bloomberg  来源:彭博社

Wages are re-accelerating:
工资正在重新加速增长:

  • June Private worker wages and salaries up 4.7% YoY, up from 4.5% in May
    6 月私营部门员工工资和薪金同比上涨 4.7%,高于 5 月的 4.5%

  • June Govt worker wages and salaries up 5.5% YoY, up from 5.4% in May
    6 月政府部门员工工资和薪金同比上涨 5.5%,高于 5 月的 5.4%

On a YoY basis, Spending and Income are both up 4.7% (in nominal terms)...
按同比计算,支出和收入均上涨 4.7%(名义值)...

Source: Bloomberg  来源:彭博社

With the savings rate unchanged at 4.5%...
储蓄率维持在 4.5%不变……

Source: Bloomberg  来源:彭博社

Is there enough here to nudge The Fed towards a cut? Or do we keep waiting for the 'lagged' effect of tariffs to finally show up in prices?
这里的信息足以促使美联储降息吗?还是我们继续等待关税的“滞后”效应最终在价格中显现?

This is the 'transitory' no inflationary impact period!
这就是“暂时性”无通胀影响的时期!

4022

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