Equity Research
AMERICAS TECHNOLOGY: SEMICONDUCTORS IN FOCUS
Initiate on Digital Semiconductors and EDA Software - Buy NVDA, AVGO, CDNS, SNPS
We initiate on the US Digital Semiconductor & EDA Software sector (7 companies), and are most constructive on merchant (and select custom) silicon and EDA vendors tied to the most sustainable elements of AI-related CapEx. We believe the AI investment cycle is in a state of transition, with over $350bn in CapEx spent on AI infrastructure. Although monetization has been elusive, we see early signs of incremental revenue and much clearer evidence of cost takeout to justify these investments - and we believe AI CapEx can sustain growth from current levels.
Initiate on US Semi Cap Equipment, Storage, and Foundry - Buy LRCX, AMAT, STX, SNDK; Sell TER, MKSI
We initiate on the US Semiconductor Capital Equipment, Storage, and Foundry sectors (12 companies) with a balanced view given the mid-cycle dynamics we see. We believe the Semiconductor Capital Equipment industry is in a mid-cycle state, with both headwinds and tailwinds creating relatively stable revenue dynamics across the sector. On one hand, the market outside China has been in a clear, shallow downcycle since 2022; China has kept the Semi Cap sector in a slow-growth mode over this period. Although we see more downside than upside risks, we think “stable” revenue through 2026 is the most likely outcome.
Initiate on Analog and RF Semiconductors: Buy MCHP, NXPI, TXN, ADI; Sell SWKS
We initiate on the US Analog & RF Semiconductor sector (7 companies), with a relatively bullish view given the cyclical opportunities we see. The analog semiconductor industry is in a state of deep cyclical correction. The "mother of all analog upturns" began during COVID, driven by a combination of acute supply shortages and exaggerated demand for all capital goods, most notably electric vehicles. The rationale for this upturn ("just in case" supply chains and re-shoring of manufacturing) drove inventory levels higher — thus exacerbating the current downturn.
UPCOMING WEBCAST on Jul 14 @ 8:30 AM ET | REGISTER
10 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity - James Schneider, Ph.D. and others
Americas Semiconductor & IT Services | New York
Tariff imposition and easing monetary policy are likely to be important macro influences on Asian equity markets in 3Q. We continue to expect a moderately positive beta environment and emphasize alpha ideas, notably where idiosyncratic aspects improve risk/reward. We expect a 9% USD 12m price return, emphasize North Asian markets (China, Japan, Korea) and raise sector economic beta.
UPCOMING WEBCAST: Asia Strategy: Navigating Tariff Imposition & Easing Rates
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11 Jul 2025 | 2:10am| 16pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Timothy Moe, CFA and others
We expect investors to reward fundamental beats this quarter as positioning appears neither crowded nor fearful. Our indicators point to average returns this quarter with increased buying capacity among individual investors and macro allocators.
10 Jul 2025 | 5:03pm| 28pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and others
IN THE SPOTLIGHT
We introduce the third edition of the Goldman Sachs Global eCommerce Handbook where we analyze the key trends and debates that are impacting eCommerce around the world. We update our proprietary Goldman Sachs Global eCommerce industry model (available on request) and forecast that global eCommerce sales will grow at a +6% CAGR between 2025 and 2030.
Key Takeaways: 1) $4tn Global eCommerce Opportunity: +6% CAGR, Modest Online Penetration Gains. 2) Macro and Tariffs Are Key Risk Factors. 3) Lower Valuations Reflect New Growth Reality.
Global eCommerce Stock Picks: Amazon.com (AMZN) in the US, JD.com (JD) in China, Coupang (CPNG) in Korea, Sea Ltd. (SE) in ASEAN, MercadoLibre (MELI) in LatAm, Zalando (ZAL) in Europe, and Eternal (ETEA) in India.
Eric Sheridan
Internet | New York
9 Jul 2025 | 4:08am| 70pg| Research | Equity-Eric Sheridan and others
Fast Retailing (9983.T): Earnings Review: Slightly below expectations; scope for improvement at Uniqlo International, but our view on the company is unchanged; Buy
10 Jul 2025 | 11:06pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Sho Kawano and others
WuXi AppTec Co. (2359.HK): Preliminary 2Q25 sales/NP beat, strong TIDEs delivery and small molecule D&M recovery support a potential guidance raise
10 Jul 2025 | 10:31pm| 7pg| Research | Equity-Ziyi Chen and others
Krafton (259960.KS): 2Q25E preview; Weak quarter but momentum expected to pick up in 2H25; Buy on CL
10 Jul 2025 | 10:30pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Eric Cha and others
- Company HighlightsDelta Air Lines Inc. (DAL): June Q beat; Sep Q EPS outlook above consensus/GSe10 Jul 2025 | 7:05pm| 6pg| Research | Equity-Catherine O'Brien and othersTata Consultancy Services Ltd. (TCS.BO): Earnings Review: Worse than expected 1Q with still low demand visibility; negative sector read-across; Buy11 Jul 2025 | 4:24am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Manish Adukia, CFA and othersJohnson & Johnson (JNJ): 2Q25 Earnings Preview: Expect An In-line Quarter Amidst Debates on the Setup Into 2H2510 Jul 2025 | 5:56pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Asad Haider, CFA and othersAmylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMLX): Potential blockbuster opportunity for avexitide; Resume at Buy, $10 PT10 Jul 2025 | 2:05pm| 10pg| Research | Equity-Corinne Johnson and othersDomino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP.AX): Reduce Earnings/Valuation in recognition of mgmt/cost-out uncertainty, though oversold in our view, Buy11 Jul 2025 | 6:22am| 9pg| Research | Equity-James Leigh, CFA and othersGeron Corp. (GERN): Commercial challenges to persist near-term; Resume at Sell, $1 PT10 Jul 2025 | 2:01pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Corinne Johnson and others
- Industry HighlightsIndonesia Banks: Tighter for longer as funding cost headwinds persist; Buy BBCA11 Jul 2025 | 3:10am| 39pg| Research | Equity-Melissa Kuang, CFA and othersChina Automobiles: 2H25 outlook mgmt call series: Expect continued subsidies and ongoing competition11 Jul 2025 | 9:25am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Tina Hou and othersUS Autos & Industrial Tech: Raising auto forecast: With muted industry growth, prefer stocks with company specific/content drivers; VC to Buy11 Jul 2025 | 9:05am| 25pg| Research | Equity-Mark Delaney, CFA and othersAmericas Technology: Internet: US Digital Ad Q2'25 Preview: Analyzing the Industry Debates & Estimates11 Jul 2025 | 4:05am| 39pg| Research | Equity-Eric Sheridan and othersSouth Korea Banks: 2Q25E Preview: FX tailwind to help accelerate TSR improvement10 Jul 2025 | 5:15pm| 10pg| Research | Equity-Sinyoung ParkAmericas Healthcare: Biotechnology: Resuming coverage of Emerging Biotechnology with a focus on key debates10 Jul 2025 | 2:16pm| 84pg| Research | Equity-Corinne Johnson and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYUS Sector Views: Our sector model's updated recommendations favor a balanced allocation10 Jul 2025 | 4:11am| 11pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Ryan Hammond and othersGOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator: 2H Outlook: Goldilocks and the three bears9 Jul 2025 | 12:00pm| 29pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA and othersUS Equity Views: Raising our S&P 500 valuation and return forecasts8 Jul 2025 | 7:04am| 12pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and others
- OPTIONSWeekly Options Watch: Option buying opportunities ahead of 2Q earnings season9 Jul 2025 | 5:00pm| 11pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and othersMacro Catalyst Reactions (8-Jul-2025)8 Jul 2025 | 9:11pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallOptimal Overwrites this week (07-Jul-25)7 Jul 2025 | 8:44pm| 17pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and others
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
- All
- Upgrades
- Downgrades
- Initiations
- CL Adds
- CL Removes
US Autos & Industrial Tech: Raising auto forecast: With muted industry growth, prefer stocks with company specific/content drivers; VC to Buy
11 Jul 2025 | 9:05am| 25pg| Research | Equity-Mark Delaney, CFA and others
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CRNX): Promising Pipeline, but Near-Term Valuation Susceptible to Commercial Uncertainties, Initiate with Neutral at $36 PT
10 Jul 2025 | 5:01pm| 78pg| Research | Equity-Richard Law, Ph.D. and others
I
Americas Technology: Semiconductors: Initiate on Analog and RF Semiconductors: Buy MCHP, NXPI, TXN, ADI; Sell SWKS
10 Jul 2025 | 4:28pm| 51pg| Research | Equity-James Schneider, Ph.D. and others
I
Americas Technology: Semiconductors: Initiate on Digital Semiconductors and EDA Software - Buy NVDA, AVGO, CDNS, SNPS
10 Jul 2025 | 4:20pm| 71pg| Research | Equity-James Schneider, Ph.D. and others
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Latest research
Telefonica Brasil (VIV): Announced acquisition of 50% additional stake in Fibrasil
11 Jul 2025 | 10:24am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Vitor Tomita, CFA and others
Largan (3008.TW): 2Q25 GM beat with continuous recovery YoY; OP income in line; better 2H25 ahead; Buy
11 Jul 2025 | 10:08am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Verena Jeng and others
E2open Parent Holdings (ETWO): Updating model for F1Q26 results
11 Jul 2025 | 10:00am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Adam Hotchkiss and others
Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG): Soft demand and increasing cost pressures - Reiterate Sell
11 Jul 2025 | 9:54am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Leah Jordan, CFA and others
China smartphones: Subsidies continued in July; Smartphone volume flat YoY in 2H25; Form factor/ Tech upgrades to attract consumers
11 Jul 2025 | 9:52am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Allen Chang and others
China Healthcare: Jun 2025 China hospital equipment bidding: Growth on hold as ASP pressure unfolds, less expectation from stimulus in 2H
11 Jul 2025 | 9:40am| 18pg| Research | Equity-Tianyi Yan and others
China Automobiles: 2H25 outlook mgmt call series: Expect continued subsidies and ongoing competition
11 Jul 2025 | 9:25am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Tina Hou and others
US Autos & Industrial Tech: Raising auto forecast: With muted industry growth, prefer stocks with company specific/content drivers; VC to Buy
11 Jul 2025 | 9:05am| 25pg| Research | Equity-Mark Delaney, CFA and others
Ovintiv Inc. (OVV): Key Takeaways from the Montney Field Trip
11 Jul 2025 | 8:37am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and others
Saudi and UAE Banks: 2Q25 preview: ADIB / SNB could beat, while FAB / SAB could miss on top line revenue pressures
11 Jul 2025 | 8:26am| 34pg| Research | Equity-Kazim Andac and others
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UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
14 Jul 2025 | 8:30am NY | 1:30pm LN | 8:30pm HK
Join us to discuss Jim Schneider’s initiation of 26 stocks across the semiconductor, semi cap equipment, and EDA software industries, including 12...Read more
James Schneider, Ph.D., US Semiconductors, Telecom, and IT Services
Chris Hussey, US Research Merchandising
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
14 Jul 2025 | 10am NY | 3pm LN | 10pm HK
Please join us as we discuss current trends and 2H25 outlook for the data center and networking equipment market with a focus on (1) the impact of AI...Read more
Alan Weckel, Founder & Technology Analyst, 650 Group
Michael Ng, CFA, US Hardware and CommTech Equity Analyst, GIR
Global Investment Research
webcast: Global
14 Jul 2025 | 11am NY | 4pm LN | 11pm HK
The discussion will focus on the macroeconomic environment, healthcare policy and regulation, and outlook alongside fundamental drivers for the...Read more
Salveen Richter, CFA, US Biotechnology Analyst
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Global Investment Research
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We will discuss with senior leadership – including the CEO – about what they learned from the visit, and what investors may be underappreciating...Read more
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