100+ Charts & Commentary on all major Markets — for your weekend reading.
100 多张图表及评论，涵盖所有主要市场——供您周末阅读。
“Don’t start the week without it”
“没有它，别开始新的一周”
“Higher For Longer” continues:
“更高更久”持续：
New all-time highs in Stocks and Bitcoin — just like experts predicted months ago.
股票和比特币创历史新高——正如专家几个月前预测的那样。
Price > opinions: 价格 > 观点：
KEY TOPICS COVERED 涵盖的主要主题
In today’s report: 在今天的报告中：
READY FOR THE NEXT SHIFT: Feels like a change coming in markets…
准备迎接下一次转变：感觉市场即将发生变化……
STOCKS: Big names melting up… no turning back now?
股票：大牌股持续上涨……现在无法回头？
Core Watchlist names up nearly +50% on average.
核心观察名单中的股票平均上涨近 50%。Buyers coming for what they can: This has been a feature the entire way up. Meanwhile every narrative was left in the dust.
买家抢购能买到的股票：这一直是上涨过程中的一个特点。与此同时，所有的市场叙事都被抛在了后面。Special Update continued: Watching Topping Signals (Subscribers only).
特别更新继续：关注顶部信号（仅限订阅者）。Updated scans & targets: assessing (1) model signals, (2) market behavior, (3) individual stocks.
更新扫描与目标：评估（1）模型信号，（2）市场行为，（3）个股表现。Lastly: working on a NEW Thematic Report with a compelling idea I’m studying — which is still under the radar. I think this theme could be extremely timely, and from many angles. Coming soon — you won’t want to miss this.
最后：正在研究一个新的主题报告，涉及一个我正在研究的引人注目的想法——目前还未被广泛关注。我认为这个主题非常及时，并且具有多方面的意义。敬请期待——你不想错过。
METALS: Tight as a drum — ready for expansion.
金属：紧绷如鼓——准备扩张。
BITCOIN: Big Beautiful Week.
比特币：精彩绝伦的一周。
FX: The Buck stops here…?
外汇：美元止步于此…？
Open Portfolio & Updated Plan
开放投资组合及更新计划
Emphasizing: keeping an open mind could be the difference between a great summer and an average one. It’s a strong year and I intend to keep pushing — eyes on the next big move (*now underway*).
强调：保持开放的心态可能是一个伟大夏天与平庸夏天的区别。今年形势强劲，我打算继续努力——目光锁定下一次大动作（*正在进行中*）。
Positions moving well together — “make hay while the sun shines”:
头寸表现良好——“趁阳光明媚时打草”：
*Monitoring the Dollar AND Bonds closely for a big play soon:
*密切关注美元和债券，准备迎接即将到来的重大行情：
CORE MODELS & DATA 核心模型与数据
STOCKS 股票
Investors continue to follow the historical script.
投资者继续遵循历史剧本。
Base case: flows should accelerate.
基本情况：资金流动应加速。
From May 24: If history is a guide, the path of maximum pain is for the market to grind higher over time, leaving sellers behind. Pullbacks could be limited in scope. (*This framework continues to be validated by the indexes.)
摘自 5 月 24 日：如果以历史为鉴，最大痛苦路径是市场随着时间推移缓慢上涨，抛售者被甩在后面。回调可能范围有限。（*这一框架持续被指数验证。）
*Below: look at the pattern of buying spikes into JULY 2023 and JULY 2024, right before the market corrected = room to go higher still?
*下图：观察 2023 年 7 月和 2024 年 7 月市场修正前的买入激增模式 = 还有上涨空间？
Institutions remain massively underinvested:
机构仍然大幅低配：
…and still SHORT Russell:
…并且仍然做空 Russell 指数：
*There has never been a major Top with this level of Short positioning…
*从未有过如此高空头持仓水平的主要顶部……
A Melt-Up developing (continued):
持续发展的熔断行情：
Core Risk Models made ZERO progress this week.
核心风险模型本周毫无进展。
Room to get more overbought — especially if a melt-up is underway.
还有进一步超买的空间——尤其是在行情暴涨的情况下。
When this reaches topping range and turns down, I’ll raise cash / look to put on Tactical hedges. Not before.
当达到顶部区间并开始下跌时，我会增加现金持有/考虑进行战术性对冲。不会提前。When the time comes, we’ll be sharing this and other signals with Subscribers only. No public sites or social media.
时机成熟时，我们将仅与订阅者分享此信号及其他信号。不通过公开网站或社交媒体发布。
We continue to track this closely for an ideal top into late summer — note “Golden cross” in line with prior rallies:
我们将继续密切关注这一点，以期在夏末形成理想的顶部——请注意与以往反弹一致的“黄金交叉”：
As discussed May 24: 如 5 月 24 日所述：
“If the sequence continues, dips should remain shallow for the next few weeks, with the market in a slight upward bias. Overall, a *perfect environment* for stock-picking. *Also: not yet an optimal setup to Short Indexes or buy Volatility.”
如果这一趋势持续，未来几周的回调应保持浅度，市场将略微偏向上涨。总体而言，这是一个*选股的完美环境*。*此外：目前尚未达到做空指数或买入波动率的最佳时机。*
*This framework continues to be validated by the market.
*这一框架持续得到市场的验证。
Trend Power Oscillator is moving to overbought — still tracking the 2016/2019 scenario:
趋势能量振荡器正向超买区移动——仍在跟踪 2016/2019 年的情景：
When this reaches extreme overbought and turns down, I’ll raise cash / look to put on Tactical hedges. Not before that, and for Subscribers only.
当此指标达到极度超买并开始回落时，我将增加现金持有/考虑进行战术性对冲。在此之前不会操作，仅限订阅者。
Remember: 记住：
High-Low Oscillator has room to push a bit higher:
高低振荡器还有上升空间：
Still on track for new highs in key areas, before a bigger correction:
在更大幅调整之前，关键领域仍有望创出新高：
Tech now up more than +50% from the April lows…
科技股自四月低点以来已上涨超过 50%…Note the DOW still below its prior high — and could try to push through.
请注意，道琼斯指数仍低于之前的高点——可能会尝试突破。Russell & Consumer Discretionary remain in green, with potential to recover further (see Technical Charts section):
罗素指数和非必需消费品板块仍处于上涨状态，有望进一步回升（见技术图表部分）：Base case: speculation & flows should ramp up as the summer melt-up continues.
基本情况：随着夏季行情持续升温，投机和资金流入应会加速。
NDX is still showing good strength — an important bullish sign:
NDX 仍显示出良好的强势——这是一个重要的看涨信号：
Sell Signals are picking up, but remain low — watching this evolve:
卖出信号正在增加，但仍然较低——持续关注其变化：
MACD Profiles remain constructive:
MACD 形态依然具有建设性：
Stocks with a Bullish Cross are still expanding — *but soon could approach the topping range. Monitoring for a turn:
处于看涨交叉的股票仍在扩展——*但很快可能接近顶部区间。正在监测转向情况：
Long-term Breadth still looks healthy — particularly NDX:
长期广度仍然健康——尤其是 NDX：
Intermediate Breadth is showing *early signs* of weakness:
中级广度指标显示出*早期*疲软迹象：
*Above, this breadth divergence looks to be primarily from Software weakness (which we’ll cover in the next section).
*上述，这种广度背离主要来自软件板块的疲软（我们将在下一部分讨论）。
Short-Term Breadth has room to push to target range:
短期广度有空间推动至目标区间：
Summation Index remains constructive:
综合指数保持积极态势：
CTA Equity Trend positioning has room to get more extended:
CTA 股票趋势仓位还有进一步加仓的空间：
Option Skews have room to get more extended:
期权波动率偏斜还有进一步扩大的空间：
Speculation Index remains a medium-term concern — but Russell momentum is still ok and Shorts are at risk of a squeeze (shown earlier):
投机指数仍是中期关注点——但 Russell 动能依然良好，空头面临挤压风险（如前所示）：
Equity Sentiment can still go a bit higher — particularly NDX:
股票情绪仍有上升空间——尤其是 NDX：
(*Below, compare NDX now vs. JULY 2023 / JULY 2024 for reference…)
（*以下，供参考，比较 NDX 当前与 2023 年 7 月 / 2024 年 7 月的情况…）
VIX Sentiment still has room down to our ideal targets — *note JULY 2023 and JULY 2024 for reference:
VIX 情绪仍有下行空间，达到我们的理想目标——*请参考 2023 年 7 月和 2024 年 7 月：
VIX has room to test the lower target range:
VIX 有空间测试较低的目标区间：
DOLLAR 美元
The Buck stops here…? 美元止步于此…？
CTA Dollar Trend positioning is turning UP from bottoming range — it’s time?
CTA 美元趋势仓位正从底部区间转向上升——是时候了吗？
Dollar Sentiment turned UP on Friday’s close — the bottom may be in:
美元情绪在周五收盘时转为上升——底部可能已经形成：
Dollar Net Short Positioning is tied with the JULY 2023 bottom:
美元净空头头寸与 2023 年 7 月的低点持平：
Momentum is slowly beginning to recover:
动能正在缓慢恢复：
Trying to establish support at long-term channel bottom.
试图在长期通道底部建立支撑。Starting to look like a turn but need to see a break >98 to get more conviction.
开始看起来像是一个转折，但需要看到突破 98 以上才能更有信心。Then needs to build momentum back up, including moving averages.
然后需要重新积聚动力，包括移动平均线。Potential for a big turn here…
这里可能会有一个重大转折……
BONDS 债券
Bonds are coiled for a big move — have to stay flexible.
债券正处于蓄势待发的状态——必须保持灵活。
Feels like a shift coming… ready for the next phase:
感觉有变化即将到来……准备迎接下一个阶段：
CTA Rates Trend positioning is turning up from a mild oversold level:
CTA 利率趋势仓位正从轻度超卖水平回升：
Bond Sentiment is in a tricky spot — IF it turns down here, could be similar to MAY 2023 (blue box). *Watching / will update if this triggers:
债券情绪处于一个棘手的位置——如果这里转向下跌，可能类似于 2023 年 5 月（蓝色框）。*正在观察/如果触发将更新：
Coiled for a big move:
蓄势待发：
Last but certainly not least: maybe time to look at Steepeners again?
最后但同样重要的是：也许是时候再次关注陡峭化交易了？
*Goldilocks steepening scenario: 2YR Yield “relatively anchored” by stable inflation + incoming Fed cuts, while 10YR Yield widens on higher growth expectations?
*金发姑娘陡峭化情景：2 年期收益率因通胀稳定和即将到来的美联储降息而“相对锚定”，而 10 年期收益率因增长预期上升而扩大？
*How likely is this? We may soon find out: next week is data-heavy with CPI, PPI, Retail Sales — no pressure.
*这有多大可能？我们可能很快就会知道：下周数据密集，有 CPI、PPI、零售销售——压力不小。
*Maybe it’s all tied to the Dollar finding a bottom? What happens to Bonds if the Dollar rallies?
*也许这一切都与美元找到底部有关？如果美元反弹，债券会发生什么？
PRECIOUS METALS 贵金属
Tight as a drum — ready for expansion.
紧绷如鼓——准备扩张。
CTA Gold Trend positioning continues to lose altitude and is not oversold yet:
CTA 黄金趋势仓位持续下滑，尚未超卖：
Gold remains on a Weekly Sell — *but Gold’s daily chart (below) may be rolling UP for another extension, AND Silver broke out again this week, so Gold Bulls have their best chance in MONTHS to step up. A failure to do so would be very bad news…
黄金仍处于每周卖出——*但黄金的日线图（如下）可能正在向上滚动，准备进一步上涨，而且白银本周再次突破，因此黄金多头有数月来最好的机会发力。如果未能抓住这一机会，将是非常不利的消息……
Gold Sentiment has rolled off a bit, while Silver sentiment is spiking but could go higher:
黄金情绪有所回落，而白银情绪正在飙升，但可能还会更高：
KEY TECHNICAL CHARTS 关键技术图表
A QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT (CONTINUED)
定性评估（续）
On April 30 in “What’s Next For Stocks?”, I wrote:
4 月 30 日，在《股票的下一步是什么？》一文中，我写道：
Inevitably, at some point in every rally, the wall of worry finally crumbles and even the garbage gets bought.
不可避免地，在每一次反弹的某个时刻，担忧之墙最终会崩溃，甚至连垃圾股也会被买入。This extreme risk-seeking behavior is fueled by two forces: performance-chasing, and general FOMO taking over.
这种极端的风险偏好行为由两股力量推动：追逐业绩和普遍的害怕错过（FOMO）。Looking around today, quantitatively and qualitatively I don’t think we’re quite there yet. I also think it will be a much different market picture in a few weeks’ time.
从今天的定量和定性角度来看，我认为我们还没到那个地步。我也认为几周后市场的情况会大不相同。
Things could still get extreme:
情况仍可能变得极端：
Let the rally run its course:
让反弹顺其自然：
All key Sectors & Groups remain in good chart position: especially the leaders in Semis, Tech, Communication Services, and Software.
所有主要行业和板块的图表位置依然良好：尤其是半导体、科技、通信服务和软件领域的领头羊。Difficult to build a top while these leading areas continue to carry the market AND are moving in synch.
当这些领先领域继续支撑市场并同步移动时，顶部难以形成。Uptrends remain intact, with no bearish reversals in any major Index.
上涨趋势保持完好，所有主要指数均未出现看跌反转。VIX and Credit Spreads continue trending DOWN.
VIX 和信用利差持续下行。Max pain scenario remains: low-volatility grind (now in full force).
最大痛点情景依然存在：低波动率的缓慢上涨（现已全面展开）。NEW: Bitcoin and related high-beta stocks are moving well. From July 5 Review: “Crypto Stocks / Miners are starting to show strength again — perhaps anticipating Bitcoin’s breakout. We may soon find out.” (*Bitcoin broke out July 9… and the stocks correctly anticipated it.)
最新动态：比特币及相关高贝塔股票表现良好。7 月 5 日回顾：“加密货币股票/矿工开始再次显示出强劲走势——或许预示着比特币的突破。我们可能很快就会知道答案。”（*比特币于 7 月 9 日突破……股票正确地预见了这一点。）
✅ Big names still working well… NVDA now almost a 2x since April, and the first company to reach $4T.
✅ 大牌股依然表现良好……NVDA 自四月以来几乎翻倍，成为首家市值达到 4 万亿美元的公司。
✅ Last summer when we tracked a major top in Semis, we noted weakness spreading while sentiment was to the moon. Today is the complete opposite... leaders still strong, and sentiment still borderline skeptical. Stunning to behold.
✅ 去年夏天，当我们追踪半导体行业的一个重要顶点时，我们注意到尽管情绪高涨，但市场开始出现疲软。今天则完全相反……龙头股依然强劲，情绪仍然处于边缘怀疑状态。令人震惊。
Updated Stocks Scan: 更新股票扫描：
Through the end of June 2025, the average stock in our Core Watchlist was up +45%, with several names near/over 2x — a strong outperformance relative to the market.
截至 2025 年 6 月底，我们核心观察名单中的平均股票上涨了 45%，其中多只股票接近或超过翻倍——相较于市场表现出强劲的超额收益。
As before, focused on: Stocks meeting strict criteria for (1) relative strength, (2) improving momentum, (3) defined risk. Building on this list as signals develop.
一如既往，重点关注符合以下严格标准的股票：（1）相对强势，（2）动能改善，（3）风险明确。随着信号的发展，持续完善该名单。
SCAN: S&P, NDX, Tech, Semiconductors, Software, Consumer Discretionary, Speculative/High-Beta.
扫描范围：S&P、NDX、科技、半导体、软件、非必需消费品、投机性/高贝塔。
✅ Most Core names remain in leading position.
✅ 大多数核心股票仍处于领先地位。
✅ HOWEVER: it’s time to begin cutting names which aren’t keeping up, overall get more selective / hold only what's still working well.
✅ 然而：现在是开始剔除表现不佳股票的时候，总体上要更加精选/只持有仍表现良好的股票。
✅ This marks an IMPORTANT shift in strategy for the first time in this entire rally.
✅ 这标志着在整个反弹过程中，策略首次发生了重要转变。
Momentum picking up in Solar stocks:
太阳能股票动能回升：
The group was decimated, but may be waking up? Evaluating for initial size position / then build from there. (*Warning label: not for everyone…)
该集团遭受重创，但可能正在苏醒？正在评估初始仓位规模，然后从那里逐步建立。（*警告标签：并非适合所有人…）
CURRENCIES 货币
The Buck stops here…? 美元止步于此…？
Remain focused on the Big Four and looking to get involved:
继续关注四大巨头，并寻求参与机会：
OIL & ENERGY 石油与能源
From Thursday’s update: “Stalling for three days at ideal topping range ~68.50, which contains the key downtrend resistance. If looking to add/enter Shorts, this is a clean setup with a tight stop at 70. Focused on Equities lately and adding to BTC, plus leaving room to buy USD if there’s an opening. Otherwise I’d be doubling my Short WTI right here, no question.”
来自周四的更新：“在理想的顶部区间约 68.50 处停滞了三天，该区间包含关键的下跌趋势阻力位。如果打算加仓/入场做空，这是一个干净的布局，止损设在 70 点位。最近专注于股票市场并增加了 BTC 的持仓，同时留有空间在有机会时买入美元。否则，我肯定会在这里加倍做空 WTI，毫无疑问。”
BITCOIN
“Big Beautiful” — remains a core focus area:
Trend Power Oscillator: *Follow the Trend — this could be a big one*
Tracking the perfect sequence:
From Thursday’s update: “The breakout is beginning. A lot of eyes on it but also a lot of second-guessing ‘is this it’. Meanwhile all trend signals remain up, the job here is to follow and let the market tell you what this is. Here we are, QQQ and BTC at all-time highs, and maybe a lot more to come this summer.”
Thanks for reading.
Onwards and upwards, -MC
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Great update, MC.
New subscriber, love the analysis. Where can we find the complete list of stocks on Core Watchlist?