Data and Intuition: Good Decisions Need Both
数据与直觉：良好的决策需要两者兼具
Today’s most successful organizations leverage data when making high-impact business decisions.
如今，最成功的组织在制定高影响力商业决策时会利用数据
In fact, a recent survey of more than 1,000 senior executives revealed that data-driven organizations are three times more likely to report significant improvements in decision making compared to other firms that leverage data less.[i]
事实上，最近一项针对 1000 多名高级管理人员的调查显示，与其他较少利用数据的公司相比，数据驱动型组织报告决策显著改进的可能性要高三倍。[i]
Effective data gathering and analysis helps decision makers verify, understand, and quantify complex issues that need rational and insightful solutions. But we can’t always rely on data alone to paint the full picture.
有效的数据收集和分析帮助决策者验证、理解并量化需要合理且有洞察力的解决方案的复杂问题。但我们不能总是仅依靠数据来描绘全貌
This is especially true when the issues at hand are ambiguous or abstract. That’s when the ability to bring in our intuition—finely honed instincts based on expertise, experience, and good judgement—becomes critical to decision making.
当手头的问题模棱两可或抽象时，尤其如此。这时，借助我们的直觉——基于专业知识、经验和良好判断力而精心磨砺的本能——的能力对决策变得至关重要。
Intuition is often seen as the opposite of reason. And when we cast things in this binary way, we often define intuition as a yardstick that has no place in the age of science and data.
直觉常被视为理性的对立面。而当我们以这种二元对立的方式看待事物时，我们常常将直觉定义为在科学与数据时代毫无立足之地的标尺
But recent research from Laura Huang, an associate professor of business administration at Harvard Business School, reveals that gut feelings can in fact be useful, especially in highly uncertain circumstances where further data gathering won’t sway the decision maker one way or the other.[ii]
但哈佛商学院工商管理副教授劳拉·黄的最新研究表明，直觉实际上可能是有用的，尤其是在高度不确定的情况下，此时进一步收集数据不会让决策者倾向于任何一方。[ii]
At its best, intuition is a powerful form of pattern recognition—something human brains are wired to do.
在最佳状态下，直觉是一种强大的模式识别形式——人类大脑天生就会做的事情
But when not managed well, pattern recognition and trusting one’s gut may lead to bias and incomplete or overly simplistic thinking, both of which are detrimental to making sound decisions.
但如果管理不善，模式识别和相信直觉可能会导致偏见以及不完整或过于简单化的思维，而这两者都不利于做出明智的决策
When it comes to data and intuition, we too often favor one over the other. But in today’s highly dynamic and complex business world, better results happen when decision makers combine the best of each. Here’s how to do that.
当涉及到数据和直觉时，我们常常过于偏向其中一方。但在当今高度动态且复杂的商业世界中，当决策者将两者的优势结合起来时，会取得更好的结果。以下是具体做法
Use intuition to make data-driven decisions quickly
运用直觉快速做出数据驱动的决策
2.5 quintillion. That’s how many bytes of data humanity generates each day.[iii] This means organizations are empowered more than ever to use data to their advantage. But while companies have invested in data tools, much of the data that’s fed into these systems is low quality and uninterpretable,[iv] and sometimes, even when the data is healthy, there’s simply far too much of it to quantify and interpret into real insights and business results.
2.5 千万亿。这就是人类每天产生的数据字节数。[iii] 这意味着组织比以往任何时候都更有能力利用数据为自己谋利。但尽管公司在数据工具上进行了投资，输入这些系统的大部分数据质量低下且无法解读，[iv] 而且有时，即使数据状况良好，数据量也实在太大，无法量化并转化为真正的见解和业务成果
As a result, we may find ourselves delaying decision making, or putting off decisions altogether. However, when we rely on our intuition, we can cut through the noise and move forward without the crippling (and sometimes conflicting) evidence.
因此，我们可能会发现自己推迟做决策，或者完全推迟做决策。然而，当我们依靠直觉时，我们可以突破干扰，在没有那些起削弱作用（有时甚至相互矛盾）的证据的情况下前进
According to Huang’s research, this is when gut feelings can lead us to make better decisions:
根据黄的研究，这就是直觉能引导我们做出更好决策的时候：
“In several studies I’ve conducted over the past eight years looking at high-stakes decisions, such as surgeons making life-or-death emergency room decisions, or early-stage investors deciding how to allocate millions of dollars in startup capital, I found that the role of gut feel is often to inspire a leader to make a call, particularly when the decision is risky.”
—Laura Huang, associate professor of business administration at Harvard Business School
在过去八年里我开展的几项研究中，研究的是高风险决策，比如外科医生在急诊室做生死攸关的决策，或者早期投资者决定如何分配数百万美元的创业资金，我发现直觉的作用往往是激发领导者做出决断，尤其是在决策有风险的时候
—哈佛商学院工商管理副教授劳拉·黄
Gerd Gigerenzer, a psychologist at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, drew similar conclusions through his research.
柏林马克斯·普朗克人类发展研究所的心理学家格尔德·吉仁泽通过他的研究得出了类似的结论
In working with top executives at large German firms, he finds that when they’re “buried under data,” the numbers don’t tell them what to do. Intuition, he says, “is a form of unconscious intelligence that is as needed as conscious intelligence.”
在与德国大型公司的高层管理人员合作时，他发现当他们“被数据淹没”时，这些数字并不能告诉他们该做什么。他说，直觉“是一种无意识的智慧形式，与有意识的智慧同样不可或缺”
While attention to raw numbers and metrics is clearly useful, it can provide a narrow understanding of the issues at hand. When decision makers feel stuck in data, instead of overthinking, they should try listening to their gut. It just might help make the right call.
虽然关注原始数据和指标显然有用，但它可能会对当前问题提供狭隘的理解。当决策者觉得被数据困住时，他们不应过度思考，而应该尝试听从直觉。这可能有助于做出正确的决策
Don’t ignore data just because it’s hard to quantify
不要仅仅因为数据难以量化就忽视它
Even the most difficult-to-measure concepts can contain valuable insights. But sometimes, we shy away from data that takes effort to quantify.
即使是最难衡量的概念也可能包含有价值的见解。但有时，我们会回避那些需要费力量化的数据
For instance, qualitative data, like customer satisfaction or employee morale, may be hard to measure and analyze, but this information can be just as useful as quantitative data in making a persuasive argument toward a decision.
例如，定性数据，如客户满意度或员工士气，可能很难衡量和分析，但在为决策提出有说服力的论据时，这些信息与定量数据一样有用
An example of this is Google’s well-known people analytics initiatives, Project Oxygen. Through this initiative, Google compared data from over 10,000 performance reviews—which included substantial sections of qualitative data—to employee retention rates.
这方面的一个例子是谷歌著名的人员分析项目“氧气项目”。通过该项目，谷歌将来自 10,000 多份绩效评估的数据——其中包含大量定性数据部分——与员工留存率进行了比较
Google then used the data to determine common high-performing manager behaviors and created training programs to develop these leadership capabilities. As a result of their efforts, the median favorability scores for managers jumped from 83 percent to 88 percent.[vi]
然后谷歌利用这些数据确定常见的高绩效管理者行为，并创建培训项目来培养这些领导能力。由于他们的努力，管理者的平均好感度得分从 83%跃升至 88%。[vi]
Furthermore, decision makers can often get “data tunnel vision” when looking at their own numbers for a long time, which can make analyzing data difficult.
此外，决策者长时间盯着自己的数据时，往往会陷入“数据视野局限”，这会使分析数据变得困难。
That’s why it’s important to maintain some objectivity by gathering data from past activities, other industries, or relevant research to compare and develop insights.
这就是为什么通过收集过去活动、其他行业或相关研究的数据来进行比较并得出见解，从而保持一定的客观性至关重要。
An example of this might be a marketer who is analyzing their advertising campaign. Faced with an assortment of metrics—cost-per-click on a digital promotion, monthly return on ad spend—they need to make an informed decision on how to allocate ad dollars.
这方面的一个例子可能是一位正在分析其广告活动的营销人员。面对一系列指标——数字推广中的每次点击成本、广告支出的月度回报率——他们需要就如何分配广告资金做出明智的决定
So the marketer could research industry metrics and other campaign trends to analyze and compare performance.
所以营销人员可以研究行业指标和其他活动趋势以分析和比较绩效
As organizations use data to their advantage, there’s a growing need for people across all levels and functions to become or work alongside data experts in order to combine knowledge sets. This way, intuition and data can “talk” to each other, so to speak.
随着组织利用数据来发挥优势，各级和各职能部门的人们越来越需要成为数据专家或与数据专家合作，以整合知识体系。这样，直觉和数据就可以说能够相互“对话”了
Important to note here: When blending data and gut feel, intuition is more reliable if decision makers have extensive experience and expertise with the decision topic.
这里需要注意的是：在融合数据和直觉时，如果决策者对决策主题有丰富的经验和专业知识，那么直觉会更可靠
How to respond when data and intuition conflict
当数据和直觉冲突时如何应对
We’ve all been there: that moment when the data is telling us one thing, but our gut is telling us another.
我们都经历过那种时刻：数据告诉我们一种情况，而直觉却告诉我们另一种情况的那个时刻
It can be a frustrating experience, especially if we’re not sure which to trust. Traditionally, we’ve been taught to push through these uncomfortable feelings so we can quickly make a decision and move on, but we can actually learn something from emotions if we pay a little more attention to them[vii]:
这可能是一种令人沮丧的经历，尤其是当我们不确定该相信哪一个时。传统上，我们被教导要克服这些不舒服的感觉，以便能够快速做出决定并继续前进，但如果我们多关注一下情绪，实际上我们可以从情绪中学到一些东西[vii]
“Naming our feelings can help create a little space between our emotions and our actions. Gaining that distance allows us to examine the emotion, and to acknowledge feeling it, without letting the emotion drive the decision, replacing our conscious thought and agency.”
—Cheryl Strauss Einhorn, author of “Emotions Aren’t the Enemy of Good Decision Making” in Harvard Business Review
“给我们的感受命名可以帮助在我们的情绪和行动之间创造一点空间。获得那个距离让我们能够审视情绪，并承认感受到它，而不让情绪驱使决策，取代我们的有意识思考和能动性。”
—谢丽尔·施特劳斯·艾因霍恩，《哈佛商业评论》中《情绪并非良好决策的敌人》一文的作者
In moments like these, decision makers might name what they’re feeling and dig deeper into why that might be. Here’s how this might play out:
在这样的时刻，决策者可能会说出自己的感受，并深入探究为什么会有这样的感受。以下是可能的情况：
- “The data looks good, but I’m feeling anxious and fearful. Could my gut be sensing a potential risk that the numbers aren’t showing?”
“数据看起来不错，但我感到焦虑和恐惧。我的直觉会不会察觉到数字没有显示出来的潜在风险？” - “The data is telling me something I didn’t think it would, and I’m feeling frustrated. Might I be resistant to let go of my original hypothesis?”
数据告诉我一些我没想到的东西，我感到很沮丧。我是不是不愿意放弃自己最初的假设？ - “Now that the data is in, I’m feeling a sense of discomfort. Could there be a reason to distrust the data? Or could I be realizing that this decision is rooted in a bigger issue than I first thought?”
“现在数据已经有了，我感到一种不安。会不会有理由不信任这些数据？或者我是不是意识到这个决策根植于比我最初所想更大的问题？”
By taking the time to analyze both the data and our own intuition, we can often arrive at a clearer understanding of the best course of action. This allows us to make more informed decisions that consider both the hard facts and the intangible factors at play.
通过花时间分析数据和我们自己的直觉，我们通常可以更清晰地理解最佳行动方案。这使我们能够做出更明智的决策，同时考虑确凿的事实和起作用的无形因素
Closing 结束语
In today’s highly dynamic business world, many decisions are too complex to rely on metrics or gut feelings alone. The best leaders and decision makers use both data and intuition to their advantage.
在当今高度动态的商业世界中，许多决策过于复杂，不能仅依赖指标或直觉。最优秀的领导者和决策者会利用数据和直觉来发挥优势。
To learn more about how organizations can enhance their decision-making skills, download the full paper: Who Is Really Making the Decisions in Your Organization — and How?
要了解更多关于组织如何提高其决策技能的内容，请下载全文：贵组织中到底是谁在做决策——以及如何做？
Perspectives 观点；视角；看法
Who Is Really Making the Decisions in Your Organization — and How?
你们组织里到底是谁在做决策——以及是怎么做的？
[i] https://www.pwc.com/us/en/services/consulting/cloud-digital/data-analytics.html
https://www.pwc.com/us/en/services/consulting/cloud-digital/data-analytics.html
[ii] https://hbr.org/2019/10/when-its-ok-to-trust-your-gut-on-a-big-decision
[iii] https://www.domo.com/learn/infographic/data-never-sleeps-5
[iv] https://hbr.org/2022/11/bad-data-is-sapping-your-teams-productivity
[iv] https://hbr.org/2022/11/糟糕的数据正在削弱团队的生产力
[v] https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/articles/201912/8-truths-about-intuition
[v] https://www.psychologytoday.com/zh-cn/articles/201912/8-truths-about-intuition
[vi] https://hbr.org/2013/12/how-google-sold-its-engineers-on-management
[越南语] https://hbr.org/2013/12/谷歌如何让工程师接受管理
[vii] https://hbr.org/2022/09/emotions-arent-the-enemy-of-good-decision-making
[vii] https://hbr.org/2022/09/情绪并非良好决策的敌人
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