Equity Research
On July 30 the Trump Administration announced a 50% tariff on US imports of semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products as a result of the Section 232 investigation, effective August 1. Importantly, the tariff excludes refined copper and concentrate, which will also not be subject to reciprocal tariffs. This exemption is significant because the US relies on imports of refined copper to meet 50% of domestic copper demand, while net imports of semi-finished products (wire rod, tube, sheet and plate etc.) only account for 7% of demand. However, by mid-2026 the US will decide whether a 15% refined copper import tariff will be imposed in 2027.
31 Jul 2025 | Research | Commodities - Eoin Dinsmore and others
India: President Trump announces surprise 25% “reciprocal” tariffs
President Trump announced surprise 25% "reciprocal" tariffs on Indian goods imports, starting August 1. In addition, he also announced an unspecified penalty related to India's energy and defense purchases from Russia. If these new tariffs are enforced, combined with existing sector-specific tariffs on products like aluminium, steel and automobiles, the total effective US tariffs on Indian imports would rise to around 26.6pp (excluding the impact of the unspecified penalty). This would bring the tariffs closer to the original "reciprocal" levels announced on April 2.
31 Jul 2025 | Research | Economics - Santanu Sengupta and others
Also see:
The EU-US Trade Deal: A Smaller Increase in the Effective Tariff Rate Than in Our Baseline; Raising our Euro Area Growth Projections (28 Jul 2025)
USA: US and EU Announce Trade Deal, Reducing Risks Ahead of Aug. 1 Deadline (28 Jul 2025)
Our US strategists new Speculative Trading Indicator has increased sharply during the last few months. It now sits at its highest level on record outside of 1998-2001 and 2020-2021 (Pandemic and SPAC boom), although it remains well below the highs reached in those episodes. The rise in the indicator reflects the elevated recent share of trading volumes in unprofitable stocks, penny stocks, and stocks with elevated EV/sales multiples.
29 Jul 2025 | 12:01pm| 9pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Sharon Bell and others
Hon Hai announced strategic partnership with TECO Electric & Machinery (1504.TW, Not Covered), aiming to offer one-stop data center solutions leveraging Hon Hai's AI servers (components, design and assembly) as well as T...
30 Jul 2025 | 10:47pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Allen Chang and others
CATL reported 2Q25 results on 30th Jul after market. Revenue came in at Rmb94bn, growing 8% yoy (below GSe by 10%), and net profit was Rmb16.5bn, up by 34% yoy, 6% above our expectation. We estimate 2Q25 battery sales volume of ~150GWh, up 34% yoy, but below GSe by 5%. Implied 2Q25 unit GP of Rmb135/kWh(below GSe of Rmb150/kWh), marginally lower from 1Q25 of Rmb136/kWh. That said, despite 2Q25 total company GP of Rmb24bn missing GSe by Rmb2.3bn in 2Q25, stronger than expected financial gains (Rmb1.7bn above GSe) and operating expense savings (Rmb0.35bn below GSe) contributed to the earnings beat.
31 Jul 2025 | 6:50am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Eric Shen and others
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): First Take on F4Q25 and FY25 results
We reiterate our Buy rating and $550 price target after Microsoft reported strong F4Q25 results, beating expectations across all metrics. Microsoft reported revenue +17% CC, beating consensus by 3% (with beats across all segments: PBP +3%, IC +3%, MPC +6%) and EPS +24% yoy (vs. FactSet consensus of +14%). The stock is indicated +7% after hours, following Azure Revenue accelerating 400bps to +39%, driven by demand across all workloads (the company did not provide points of AI growth contribution). We see this as further validation that Microsoft is continuing to rapidly expand their AI Services segment (as outlined in our Deep Dive on Long-Term Growth Drivers) as well as successfully fine-tuning their sales motion in non-AI workloads.
30 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity - Kash Rangan and others
Meta Platforms Inc. (META): Q2 '25 Earnings First Take
We expect investors to have a positive reaction to META's Q2 ’25 earnings report as revenue performance (+22% YoY growth f/x neutral) was driven by the core advertising business and on the back of strong growth in both ad impressions (+11% YoY) and pricing (+9% YoY). In terms of forward disclosure, we would highlight a Q3 2025 revenue guide of $47.5-50.5bn that is above our pre-earnings estimate of $46.7bn (albeit incorporating a ~100bps f/x tailwind).
30 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity - Eric Sheridan and others
MediaTek (2454.TW): Earnings Review: 2Q25 GM inline; long-term growth trajectory intact; reiterate Buy
30 Jul 2025 | 10:04pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Bruce Lu and others
Panasonic HD (6752.T): Earnings Review: 1Q above expectations, but detailed picture mixed; post-reforms growth strategy key; Buy
30 Jul 2025 | 8:23pm| 10pg| Research | Equity-Ryo Harada and others
HSBC (HSBA.L/0005.HK): Modest upward revision post 2Q; Buy
31 Jul 2025 | 12:17am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Gurpreet Singh Sahi, CFA and others
Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO.AX): 1H 2025 result: copper and aluminium EBITDA beat, growth execution & portfolio optimisation ahead; Buy
30 Jul 2025 | 10:10pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Paul Young and others
Mahindra & Mahindra (MAHM.BO): 1Q Beat: Pricing power + EV margins fortify setup into next launch phase; Buy (on CL)
31 Jul 2025 | 2:38am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Chandramouli Muthiah and others
Grab (GRAB): 2Q25 First Take: Robust growth trends, Deliveries accelerated; FY guidance reiterated; Buy
31 Jul 2025 | 7:35am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Pang Vittayaamnuaykoon and others
This inaugural conference will bring together thought leaders and senior executives from the most important companies listed in Asia Pacific to present their corporate strategy, current trends and challenges. Running in parallel with the main presentations, companies will be hosting one-on-one and small group meetings.
- Company HighlightsL'Oreal (OREP.PA): Another solid delivery set to accelerate further; Reiterate Buy31 Jul 2025 | 6:52am| 17pg| Research | Equity-Olivier Nicolaï and othersNovo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO): Profit warning likely to drive further questions over the long-term obesity opportunity, new CEO announced29 Jul 2025 | 8:14pm| 7pg| Research | Equity-James Quigley and othersLam Research Corp. (LRCX): First Take: Strong quarter and guidance31 Jul 2025 | 4:26am| 7pg| Research | Equity-James Schneider, Ph.D. and othersMGM China (2282.HK): 2Q25 results above on broad-based GGR recovery. Upside in Peninsula from base mass returns and satellite casino closure. Buy.31 Jul 2025 | 9:38am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Simon Cheung, CFA and othersARM Holdings (ARM): First Take: In-line quarter with lower Royalty revenue, with EPS guidance below the Street31 Jul 2025 | 4:23am| 6pg| Research | Equity-James Schneider, Ph.D. and othersMerck & Co. (MRK): Noisy Quarter as Expected, But Stock Seems To Have Found A Floor30 Jul 2025 | 6:03pm| 10pg| Research | Equity-Asad Haider, CFA and others
- Industry HighlightsAmericas Energy: Oil - Refining: 2Q Preview: Refresh Select SMID-Cap Refiner Estimates; Focus on Balance Sheet, Capital Returns and SREs31 Jul 2025 | 9:07am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and othersAmericas Emerging Software: Revisiting Key Debates: Mixed industry datapoints into quarter-end; 2H revenue visibility remains a key focus30 Jul 2025 | 3:00pm| 32pg| Research | Equity-Adam Hotchkiss and othersAmericas Retail: Revisiting recent US eyewear trends ahead of 2Q results30 Jul 2025 | 3:49pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Brooke Roach, CFA and othersEuropean Utilities: Datacenters: Deal activity suggests we could be at an inflection point30 Jul 2025 | 5:44pm| 5pg| Research | Equity-Alberto Gandolfi and othersJapan Industrial Electronics: June MOF data (optical fiber/cable): Cable exports strong; possible tight supply/demand as ASP rises30 Jul 2025 | 2:07pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Ryo Harada and othersAmericas Amusement Parks: 2Q25 Preview: Key debates into earnings30 Jul 2025 | 8:41am| 15pg| Research | Equity-Lizzie Dove and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYAsia-Pacific Portfolio Strategy: Asian equity market daily update30 Jul 2025 | 8:01pm| 11pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Timothy Moe, CFA and othersChina Musings: Summer Break(out)28 Jul 2025 | 2:37am| 14pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Kinger Lau, CFA and othersUS Macroscope: Speculative trading activity adds fuel to narrow-breadth short squeeze25 Jul 2025 | 5:09am| 11pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Ben Snider and others
- OPTIONSWeekly Options Watch: Attractive options ahead of July FOMC30 Jul 2025 | 5:01pm| 13pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and othersOptimal Overwrites this week (28-Jul-25)28 Jul 2025 | 9:17pm| 17pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and othersWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (27-Jul-2025)27 Jul 2025 | 7:38pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John Marshall
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
- All
- Upgrades
- Downgrades
- Initiations
- CL Adds
- CL Removes
Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW): Slower organic revenue growth prospects to weigh on premium valuation; downgrade to Neutral
31 Jul 2025 | 10:41am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Blostein, CFA and others
United Arab Emirates Banks: Strategic Reassessment: Upgrading FAB to Buy, downgrading ENBD to Neutral
31 Jul 2025 | 8:03am| 25pg| Research | Equity-Kazim Andac and others
CATL (300750.SZ): 2Q25 earnings beat GSe though battery unit GPs profile mixed; Maintain Buy on A-Shr, d/g H-Shr to Neutral on valuation
31 Jul 2025 | 6:50am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Eric Shen and others
Vanguard International Corp. (5347.TWO): Earnings Review: 2Q25 impacted by FX; ongoing market share gain to secure future growth prospects; upgrade to Neutral, TP up to NT$90
30 Jul 2025 | 6:09am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Bruce Lu and others
Latest research
ADNOC Drilling (ADNOCDRILL.AD): Solid FCFs pave the way for dividend upside; maintain Buy
31 Jul 2025 | 11:04am| 17pg| Research | Equity-Faisal AlAzmeh, CFA and others
Americas Real Estate: REITs: Storage (PSA & EXR) First Take: Flat SS revenue growth suggests stabilization
31 Jul 2025 | 11:01am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Caitlin Burrows and others
Americas Capital Markets: 2Q25 EPS Wrap-up: SF, APAM, and VIRT takeaways
31 Jul 2025 | 10:42am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Blostein, CFA and others
Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW): Slower organic revenue growth prospects to weigh on premium valuation; downgrade to Neutral
31 Jul 2025 | 10:41am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Blostein, CFA and others
Adobe Inc. (ADBE): Non-Deal Roadshow with CFO – Positive Takeaway on LT Outlook with Potential F26 Inflection
31 Jul 2025 | 10:21am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Kash Rangan and others
Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD): 2Q25 EPS: A well-rounded top and bottom line beat, and reacceleration in July customer trends
31 Jul 2025 | 10:20am| 8pg| Research | Equity-James Yaro and others
TIM Brasil (TIMB): 2Q25 First Take: In-Line Revenue and EBITDA
31 Jul 2025 | 10:18am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Vitor Tomita, CFA and others
Wingstop Inc. (WING): 2Q25 Recap: Drivers in place for re-acceleration of top line growth into 2026
31 Jul 2025 | 10:11am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Christine Cho and others
Latam Commodities: Brazil Tariffs Exemption a Relief for Pulp/Suzano; Copper The Key Surprise
31 Jul 2025 | 10:06am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Marcio Farid and others
Glencore Plc (GLEN.L): JunQ: Copper offset by better zinc margins. Cost savings and further streamlining ahead
31 Jul 2025 | 10:04am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Matt Greene
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