Equity Research
We estimate that US GDP rose just 1.1% (annualized) in H1 and expect a similar pace in H2, as a real income hit from tariff-related price increases offsets the boost from easier financial conditions. Although weakness in labor supply has so far kept the unemployment rate stable and layoffs limited, the growth slowdown has brought job creation close to “stall speed” and kept our 12-month recession risk estimate at 30%. Starting in September, we expect the FOMC to deliver three consecutive 25bp cuts, provided inflation expectations remain in check amidst worries about Fed independence. Barring another major tariff shock, we see steady non-US growth, but the surge in China's current account surplus signals a deeply unbalanced economy.
US Consumer Spending Has Stagnated in H1

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
21 July 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius
China: C-REITs (No. 3): From debut to acceleration
Taking off alongside policy tailwinds, an Rmb200bn+ market cap in 4 years. Since 2H24, the C-REITs market has embarked on a fast growth trajectory, supported by policy tailwinds (e.g. streamlining filing and listing processes, loosening limits on underlying asset categories and pre-listing financial prerequisites, etc.) and a conducive low-rate macro environment. As of Jun-25, four years after the market first appeared, a total of 68 C-REITs had been listed with the aggregate market cap expanding five folds to over Rmb200bn, equivalent to 0.15%/0.24% of China GDP/total stock market and 6%/1% of developers' funding gap/debt balance for 2025E. Besides, 5 C-REITs had completed follow-on offerings since Jun-23, which on average accounted for c.36% of their total capital raised.
21 Jul 2025 | 34pg | Research | Equity - Yi Wang, CFA and others
Hong Kong Real Estate: Cycle inflecting but slowly; NWD to Neutral; Sino down to Sell
The HK property market is showing early signs of stabilisation, now in its seventh year of decline. Rising residential property rents, falling interest rates, select high value rental transactions and a rebound in capital market activities provide us confidence around stability. We continue to expect residential to lead (vs CRE) with sustained price increases starting 2026.
21 Jul 2025 | 25pg | Research | Equity - Gurpreet Singh Sahi, CFA and others
- Company HighlightsChevron Corp. (CVX): 2Q25 Preview: See Positive Setup as Cash Flow Inflection Nears and HES Acquisition Closes; Buy22 Jul 2025 | 10:19am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and othersCaterpillar Inc. (CAT): Powering data centers: How much can Solar turbine orders add to CAT backlog?21 Jul 2025 | 3:05pm| 6pg| Research | Equity-Jerry Revich, CFA and othersAMP (AMP.AX): 2Q25 flows bode well for Valuation; but sustainability unclear; D/G to Neutral22 Jul 2025 | 6:18am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Julian Braganza, FIAASportradar Group (SRAD): Secular Grower Exposed to Sports Data & Technology; Balanced Risk/Reward - Initiate Neutral21 Jul 2025 | 12:05pm| 40pg| Research | Equity-Ben Miller and othersKKR & Co. (KKR): Runway for mid-teens FRE compounding, supported by leverage to capital markets upside; mgmt meeting highlights21 Jul 2025 | 9:14am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Blostein, CFA and othersUltratech Cement (ULTC.BO): 1Q Review: Below GSe; integration of acquired assets under way; Buy21 Jul 2025 | 11:45pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Pulkit Patni
- Industry HighlightsChina Metals & Mining: China lithium supply - evaluating risks in mining licenses, potential easing of supply surplus but not game changer21 Jul 2025 | 9:57pm| 7pg| Research | Equity-Trina Chen and othersAmericas Environmental Services: GS Landfill Tracker: Local level market structure underpins sustained pricing power21 Jul 2025 | 12:01pm| 15pg| Research | Equity-Jerry Revich, CFA and othersAmericas Restaurants: CY2Q25 Preview and key insights from GS survey of 2000 Consumers22 Jul 2025 | 9:15am| 16pg| Research | Equity-Christine Cho and othersSingapore Banks: 2Q25 preview: Weaker 2Q as NIM declines, focus on guidance updates21 Jul 2025 | 10:20am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Melissa Kuang, CFA and othersAmericas Banks: Key takeaways from AXP, TFC, RF, HBAN, ALLY and CMA earnings21 Jul 2025 | 1:08pm| 13pg| Research | Equity-Ryan M. Nash, CFA and othersAmericas Beverages: "Beverage Bytes" Q2 retailer survey - Accelerating trends for bevs in C-stores; Reiterate Buy on MNST & STZ21 Jul 2025 | 6:04pm| 39pg| Research | Equity-Bonnie Herzog and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYUS Weekly Kickstart: Dollar weakness provides a modest offset to tariff earnings pressure19 Jul 2025 | 4:01am| 24pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and othersIndia Strategy: Domestic funds turn selectively pro-cyclical; Foreign investors favour domestic pockets over exporters18 Jul 2025 | 3:47pm| 11pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Amorita Goel, CFA and othersJapan Weekly Kickstart: No major surprises in the LDP-led coalition's loss of its Upper House majority21 Jul 2025 | 3:52pm| 25pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Bruce Kirk, CFA and others
- OPTIONSOptimal Overwrites this week (21-Jul-25)21 Jul 2025 | 9:12pm| 17pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and othersWeekend Cross-asset Dislocations (20-Jul-2025)20 Jul 2025 | 9:21pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallMonthly Expiration Highlights (July 2025)17 Jul 2025 | 6:04pm| 10pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and others
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