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Equity Research

Global Views: Stall Speed

We estimate that US GDP rose just 1.1% (annualized) in H1 and expect a similar pace in H2, as a real income hit from tariff-related price increases offsets the boost from easier financial conditions. Although weakness in labor supply has so far kept the unemployment rate stable and layoffs limited, the growth slowdown has brought job creation close to “stall speed” and kept our 12-month recession risk estimate at 30%. Starting in September, we expect the FOMC to deliver three consecutive 25bp cuts, provided inflation expectations remain in check amidst worries about Fed independence. Barring another major tariff shock, we see steady non-US growth, but the surge in China's current account surplus signals a deeply unbalanced economy.

US Consumer Spending Has Stagnated in H1

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

21 July 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius

Last week US equities closed at ATH on continued positive macro data (Exhibit 1) and a strong US earnings season so far. Data from core retail sales rose (+0.5% in June), and the Philly Fed manufacturing index was above ...
22 Jul 2025 | 4:06am| 31pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA and others
https://publishing.gs.com/content/girActions/bbd475e2-6e84-11e6-b2d2-005056062d0c.html
Jiumaojiu shares have been under pressure YTD (down -16% vs. HSCEI's +24%) but recovery signs have emerged suggesting an inflection near term as aggressive store closures, cost control, and solid performance from the new...
22 Jul 2025 | 6:36am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Michelle Cheng and others

REAL ESTATE IN THE SPOTLIGHT

China: C-REITs (No. 3): From debut to acceleration

Taking off alongside policy tailwinds, an Rmb200bn+ market cap in 4 years. Since 2H24, the C-REITs market has embarked on a fast growth trajectory, supported by policy tailwinds (e.g. streamlining filing and listing processes, loosening limits on underlying asset categories and pre-listing financial prerequisites, etc.) and a conducive low-rate macro environment. As of Jun-25, four years after the market first appeared, a total of 68 C-REITs had been listed with the aggregate market cap expanding five folds to over Rmb200bn, equivalent to 0.15%/0.24% of China GDP/total stock market and 6%/1% of developers' funding gap/debt balance for 2025E. Besides, 5 C-REITs had completed follow-on offerings since Jun-23, which on average accounted for c.36% of their total capital raised.

21 Jul 2025 | 34pg | Research | Equity - Yi Wang, CFA and others

Hong Kong Real Estate: Cycle inflecting but slowly; NWD to Neutral; Sino down to Sell

The HK property market is showing early signs of stabilisation, now in its seventh year of decline. Rising residential property rents, falling interest rates, select high value rental transactions and a rebound in capital market activities provide us confidence around stability. We continue to expect residential to lead (vs CRE) with sustained price increases starting 2026.

21 Jul 2025 | 25pg | Research | Equity - Gurpreet Singh Sahi, CFA and others

RATING AND LIST CHANGES
Jiumaojiu (9922.HK): Light at the end of the tunnel: New Tai Er format well on track; upgrade to Buy
22 Jul 2025 | 6:36am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Michelle Cheng and others
AMP (AMP.AX): 2Q25 flows bode well for Valuation; but sustainability unclear; D/G to Neutral
22 Jul 2025 | 6:18am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Julian Braganza, FIAA
Hong Kong Real Estate: Cycle inflecting but slowly; NWD to Neutral; Sino down to Sell
21 Jul 2025 | 7:41pm| 25pg| Research | Equity-Gurpreet Singh Sahi, CFA and others
Latest research
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (GAPB.MX): First Take 2Q25: EBITDA +31% YoY; in line
22 Jul 2025 | 10:34am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Joao Frizo, CFA and others
Zions Bancorporation (ZION): Key takeaways from ZION earnings
22 Jul 2025 | 9:39am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Ryan M. Nash, CFA and others
Americas Restaurants: CY2Q25 Preview and key insights from GS survey of 2000 Consumers
22 Jul 2025 | 9:15am| 16pg| Research | Equity-Christine Cho and others
Eternal Ltd. (ETEA.BO): Earnings Review: Upside risks to both growth and margins; raise TP to Rs340; Buy
22 Jul 2025 | 9:09am| 15pg| Research | Equity-Manish Adukia, CFA and others

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DAILY ROUNDUPS
Midday Market Intelligence: drill down
22 Jul 2025 | 1:58am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
21 Jul 2025 | 8:00pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
WEEKLY ROUNDUPS
GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - July 18, 2025
19 Jul 2025 | 1:49am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
GS Equity Radar: Multi-asset GOAL 2H outlook, mixed reactions and key research from the week
19 Jul 2025 | 12:51am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Sahar Islam and others
End of Week Market Intelligence: new normal
19 Jul 2025 | 12:12am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
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webcast: Global
23 Jul 2025 | 3pm HK | 3am NY | 8am LN
We will discuss the steel market outlook, investor feedback, and trade ideas.
Phillip Killicoat , Bulks Trading, GBM
Aurelia Waltham , Metals & Bulks Strategist, GIR
Paul Young, Co-Head of APAC Natural Resources & Clean Energy
Matt Greene, European Metals & Mining Analyst
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Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
23 Jul 2025 | 2pm NY | 7pm LN | 2am HK(+1)
Please reach out to your respective sales representative to participate.
Priya Singhal, Head of Development
Diana Gallagher, Head of Clinical Development, MS, Immunology and AD
Uptal Patel, Head of Development, Biogen West Coast Hub (Felzartamab & rare kidney)
Salveen Richter, CFA, Biotechnology Analyst
Global Investment Research
webcast: Global
24 Jul 2025 | 3pm HK | 3am NY | 8am LN
We will discuss our outlook for base metals, demand and supply trends, as well as tariff implications.
Eoin Dinsmore, Head of Industrial Metals Research
Paul Young, Co-Head of APAC Natural Resources & Clean Energy
Matt Greene, European Metals & Mining Analyst
Passcode: 730793; Meeting ID: 966 1833 1565

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