Global Markets – Weekly Review

Ready For The Next Shift...

Macro Charts

Jul 13, 2025

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100+ Charts & Commentary on all major Markets — for your weekend reading.

“Don’t start the week without it”

What is the fastest F1 car of all time? - Motor Sport Magazine

“Higher For Longer” continues:

New all-time highs in Stocks and Bitcoin — just like experts predicted months ago.

Price > opinions:

KEY TOPICS COVERED

In today’s report:

READY FOR THE NEXT SHIFT: Feels like a change coming in markets…

STOCKS: Big names melting up… no turning back now?

Core Watchlist names up nearly +50% on average.
Buyers coming for what they can: This has been a feature the entire way up. Meanwhile every narrative was left in the dust.
Special Update continued: Watching Topping Signals (Subscribers only).
Updated scans & targets: assessing (1) model signals, (2) market behavior, (3) individual stocks.
Lastly: working on a NEW Thematic Report with a compelling idea I’m studying — which is still under the radar. I think this theme could be extremely timely, and from many angles. Coming soon — you won’t want to miss this.

METALS: Tight as a drum — ready for expansion.

BITCOIN: Big Beautiful Week.

FX: The Buck stops here…?

Open Portfolio & Updated Plan

Emphasizing: keeping an open mind could be the difference between a great summer and an average one. It’s a strong year and I intend to keep pushing — eyes on the next big move (*now underway*).

Positions moving well together — “make hay while the sun shines”:

*Monitoring the Dollar AND Bonds closely for a big play soon:

CORE MODELS & DATA

STOCKS

Investors continue to follow the historical script.

Base case: flows should accelerate.

From May 24: If history is a guide, the path of maximum pain is for the market to grind higher over time, leaving sellers behind. Pullbacks could be limited in scope. (*This framework continues to be validated by the indexes.)

*Below: look at the pattern of buying spikes into JULY 2023 and JULY 2024, right before the market corrected = room to go higher still?

Institutions remain massively underinvested:

…and still SHORT Russell:

*There has never been a major Top with this level of Short positioning…

A Melt-Up developing (continued):

Core Risk Models made ZERO progress this week.

Room to get more overbought — especially if a melt-up is underway.

When this reaches topping range and turns down, I’ll raise cash / look to put on Tactical hedges. Not before.
When the time comes, we’ll be sharing this and other signals with Subscribers only. No public sites or social media.

We continue to track this closely for an ideal top into late summer — note “Golden cross” in line with prior rallies:

As discussed May 24:

“If the sequence continues, dips should remain shallow for the next few weeks, with the market in a slight upward bias. Overall, a *perfect environment* for stock-picking. *Also: not yet an optimal setup to Short Indexes or buy Volatility.”

*This framework continues to be validated by the market.

Trend Power Oscillator is moving to overbought — still tracking the 2016/2019 scenario:

When this reaches extreme overbought and turns down, I’ll raise cash / look to put on Tactical hedges. Not before that, and for Subscribers only.

Remember:

High-Low Oscillator has room to push a bit higher:

Still on track for new highs in key areas, before a bigger correction:

Tech now up more than +50% from the April lows…
Note the DOW still below its prior high — and could try to push through.
Russell & Consumer Discretionary remain in green, with potential to recover further (see Technical Charts section):
Base case: speculation & flows should ramp up as the summer melt-up continues.

NDX is still showing good strength — an important bullish sign:

Sell Signals are picking up, but remain low — watching this evolve:

MACD Profiles remain constructive:

Stocks with a Bullish Cross are still expanding — but soon could approach the topping range. Monitoring for a turn:*

Long-term Breadth still looks healthy — particularly NDX:

Intermediate Breadth is showing early signs of weakness:

*Above, this breadth divergence looks to be primarily from Software weakness (which we’ll cover in the next section).

Short-Term Breadth has room to push to target range:

Summation Index remains constructive:

CTA Equity Trend positioning has room to get more extended:

Option Skews have room to get more extended:

Speculation Index remains a medium-term concern — but Russell momentum is still ok and Shorts are at risk of a squeeze (shown earlier):

Equity Sentiment can still go a bit higher — particularly NDX:

(*Below, compare NDX now vs. JULY 2023 / JULY 2024 for reference…)

VIX Sentiment still has room down to our ideal targets — *note JULY 2023 and JULY 2024 for reference:

VIX has room to test the lower target range:

DOLLAR

The Buck stops here…?

CTA Dollar Trend positioning is turning UP from bottoming range — it’s time?

Dollar Sentiment turned UP on Friday’s close — the bottom may be in:

Dollar Net Short Positioning is tied with the JULY 2023 bottom:

Momentum is slowly beginning to recover:

Trying to establish support at long-term channel bottom.
Starting to look like a turn but need to see a break >98 to get more conviction.
Then needs to build momentum back up, including moving averages.
Potential for a big turn here…

BONDS

Bonds are coiled for a big move — have to stay flexible.

Feels like a shift coming… ready for the next phase:

CTA Rates Trend positioning is turning up from a mild oversold level:

Bond Sentiment is in a tricky spot — IF it turns down here, could be similar to MAY 2023 (blue box). *Watching / will update if this triggers:

Coiled for a big move:

Last but certainly not least: maybe time to look at Steepeners again?

*Goldilocks steepening scenario: 2YR Yield “relatively anchored” by stable inflation + incoming Fed cuts, while 10YR Yield widens on higher growth expectations?

*How likely is this? We may soon find out: next week is data-heavy with CPI, PPI, Retail Sales — no pressure.

*Maybe it’s all tied to the Dollar finding a bottom? What happens to Bonds if the Dollar rallies?

PRECIOUS METALS

Tight as a drum — ready for expansion.

CTA Gold Trend positioning continues to lose altitude and is not oversold yet:

Gold remains on a Weekly Sell — *but Gold’s daily chart (below) may be rolling UP for another extension, AND Silver broke out again this week, so Gold Bulls have their best chance in MONTHS to step up. A failure to do so would be very bad news…

Gold Sentiment has rolled off a bit, while Silver sentiment is spiking but could go higher:

A QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT (CONTINUED)

On April 30 in “What’s Next For Stocks?”, I wrote:

Inevitably, at some point in every rally, the wall of worry finally crumbles and even the garbage gets bought.
This extreme risk-seeking behavior is fueled by two forces: performance-chasing, and general FOMO taking over.
Looking around today, quantitatively and qualitatively I don’t think we’re quite there yet. I also think it will be a much different market picture in a few weeks’ time.

Things could still get extreme:

Let the rally run its course:

All key Sectors & Groups remain in good chart position: especially the leaders in Semis, Tech, Communication Services, and Software.
Difficult to build a top while these leading areas continue to carry the market AND are moving in synch.
Uptrends remain intact, with no bearish reversals in any major Index.
VIX and Credit Spreads continue trending DOWN.
Max pain scenario remains: low-volatility grind (now in full force).
NEW: Bitcoin and related high-beta stocks are moving well. From July 5 Review: “Crypto Stocks / Miners are starting to show strength again — perhaps anticipating Bitcoin’s breakout. We may soon find out.” (*Bitcoin broke out July 9… and the stocks correctly anticipated it.)

✅ Big names still working well… NVDA now almost a 2x since April, and the first company to reach $4T.

✅ Last summer when we tracked a major top in Semis, we noted weakness spreading while sentiment was to the moon. Today is the complete opposite... leaders still strong, and sentiment still borderline skeptical. Stunning to behold.

Updated Stocks Scan:

Through the end of June 2025, the average stock in our Core Watchlist was up +45%, with several names near/over 2x — a strong outperformance relative to the market.

As before, focused on: Stocks meeting strict criteria for (1) relative strength, (2) improving momentum, (3) defined risk. Building on this list as signals develop.

SCAN: S&P, NDX, Tech, Semiconductors, Software, Consumer Discretionary, Speculative/High-Beta.

✅ Most Core names remain in leading position.

✅ HOWEVER: it’s time to begin cutting names which aren’t keeping up, overall get more selective / hold only what's still working well.

✅ This marks an IMPORTANT shift in strategy for the first time in this entire rally.

Momentum picking up in Solar stocks:

The group was decimated, but may be waking up? Evaluating for initial size position / then build from there. (*Warning label: not for everyone…)

CURRENCIES

The Buck stops here…?

Remain focused on the Big Four and looking to get involved:

OIL & ENERGY

From Thursday’s update: “Stalling for three days at ideal topping range ~68.50, which contains the key downtrend resistance. If looking to add/enter Shorts, this is a clean setup with a tight stop at 70. Focused on Equities lately and adding to BTC, plus leaving room to buy USD if there’s an opening. Otherwise I’d be doubling my Short WTI right here, no question.”

BITCOIN

“Big Beautiful” — remains a core focus area:

Trend Power Oscillator: Follow the Trend — this could be a big one

Tracking the perfect sequence:

From Thursday’s update: “The breakout is beginning. A lot of eyes on it but also a lot of second-guessing ‘is this it’. Meanwhile all trend signals remain up, the job here is to follow and let the market tell you what this is. Here we are, QQQ and BTC at all-time highs, and maybe a lot more to come this summer.”