Equity Research
After consolidating for the better part of June and July, Chinese equities have recently broken out of their trading ranges, with MSCI China and CSI300 reaching their 4-year and ytd highs, respectively. Moderation of US-China trade tensions is perhaps a key contributor to the re-accelerating gains, in addition to a robust 2Q GDP print, government responses to address “involution” in key sectors, a resurgent IPO market in HK, record-breaking Southbound inflows (new 2025 GSe at US$160bn), and a wide gap between rising foreign investor interest in Chinese stocks and their still-conservative equity allocations. We retain our Overweight stance on China in a regional context, with our refreshed 12m index target pointing to 11% potential returns for MSCI China. But the 25% rally ytd (the 2nd best first seven-month returns since 2010) has further cemented our alpha over beta bias, leading us to reiterate Chinese POEs (Prominent 10) and shareholder yields thematically, and to raise Insurance and Materials (to OW) sectorally, funded by a downgrade in Banks and Real Estate.
Earnings Season
Previews and analysis of the latest results
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Apple Inc. (AAPL): F3Q25 review: iPhones outperform on 16 family strength, with Services momentum
AAPL's F3Q25 EPS beat on better-than-expected iPhone sales, Services, and more muted tariff impacts. First, iPhone delivered an outsized beat in the quarter with 13% yoy growth (v. GSe +1%) driven by strong upgrade rates, which we view as an early indicator of the iPhone upgrade cycle, as well as a modest benefit from pull-ins ahead of potential tariff impacts. Second, Services beat with +13% yoy growth (v. 11% GSe/consensus) with the outlook better-than-expected despite investor concerns around headwinds to App Store, though TAC remains an overhang. Third, Apple is accelerating its investments in AI across capex, R&D, and COGS.
31 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity - Michael Ng, CFA and others
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): Q2'25 Earnings First Take
We would expect Amazon’s shares to have a muted reaction to its Q2 2025 earnings report as the results presented a solid picture of the current state of the company’s eCommerce efforts (as reflected in revenue growth vs. our estimates) and a reported Operating Income of $19.2b (even with AWS Operating Margins at ~33%). In terms of AWS, YoY revenue growth of 17.5% was slightly below heightened investor expectations after strong operating results by competitors but were ahead of our estimates.
31 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity - Eric Sheridan and others
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): The AI Halo Effect Ripples up the Stack - F4Q25 Earnings (31 Jul 2025 | Kash Rangan and others)
Meta Platforms Inc. (META): Q2'25 Review: Sustained Core Business Strength Fuels Long-Term Growth Investments (31 Jul 2025 | Eric Sheridan and others)
- Company HighlightsMitsubishi Electric (6503.T): Earnings Review: 1Q well above expectations; full-year guidance unchanged, but looks conservative; raise TP, reiterate Buy31 Jul 2025 | 11:17pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Ryo Harada and othersEli Lilly & Co. (LLY): First Take: SURPASS-CVOT Trial Results Remove An Overhang, Even If Not Best Case31 Jul 2025 | 7:54pm| 6pg| Research | Equity-Asad Haider, CFA and othersMizuho FG (8411.T): 1Q Earnings above expectations; FY3/26 net profit guidance raised 8.5% as uncertainty recedes; lift our estimates/TP; Buy (on CL)31 Jul 2025 | 9:48pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Makoto Kuroda and othersHindustan Unilever (HLL.BO): Early stages of a growth revival; upgrade to Buy1 Aug 2025 | 9:30am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Arnab Mitra and othersSumitomo Electric Industries (5802.T): 1Q above expectations; FY guidance raised but looks cautious; optical product capacity expansion ahead of plan; raise TP, reiterate Buy1 Aug 2025 | 1:12am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Ryo Harada and othersAvis Budget Group (CAR): 2Q25 Review: Valuation stretched with lack of near-term catalysts for higher normalized EBITDA; downgrade to Sell1 Aug 2025 | 4:11am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Lizzie Dove and others
- Industry HighlightsEurope Telecom Services: Mobile consolidation: Analysing the upside from the next phase of Digital Infrastructure deregulation31 Jul 2025 | 12:08pm| 51pg| Research | Equity-Andrew Lee and othersIndia Construction: 1Q Review: Higher costs offset the benefit of pricing; Stay Neutral on Ambuja, Sell on ACC31 Jul 2025 | 10:17pm| 9pg| Research | Equity-Pulkit Patni and othersChina Industrial Tech: 2Q25 Robot/Automation Landscape Analyzer: How are market shares shifting?31 Jul 2025 | 6:03pm| 18pg| Research | Equity-Jacqueline DuUnited Arab Emirates Banks: Strategic Reassessment: Upgrading FAB to Buy, downgrading ENBD to Neutral31 Jul 2025 | 8:03am| 25pg| Research | Equity-Kazim Andac and othersAmericas Energy: Oil - Refining: 2Q Preview: Refresh Select SMID-Cap Refiner Estimates; Focus on Balance Sheet, Capital Returns and SREs31 Jul 2025 | 9:07am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and othersAmericas Capital Markets: 2Q25 EPS Wrap-up: SF, APAM, and VIRT takeaways31 Jul 2025 | 10:42am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Blostein, CFA and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYStrategy Espresso: Europe has few parallels to US speculative trading activity boom29 Jul 2025 | 12:01pm| 9pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Sharon Bell and othersAsia-Pacific Portfolio Strategy: Asian equity market daily update30 Jul 2025 | 8:01pm| 11pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Timothy Moe, CFA and othersUS Macroscope: Speculative trading activity adds fuel to narrow-breadth short squeeze25 Jul 2025 | 5:09am| 11pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Ben Snider and others
- OPTIONSTrade Close: Close Options Recommendation on META, LUV & AEP31 Jul 2025 | 10:05pm| 6pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and othersWeekly Options Watch: Attractive options ahead of July FOMC30 Jul 2025 | 5:01pm| 13pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and othersOptimal Overwrites this week (28-Jul-25)28 Jul 2025 | 9:17pm| 17pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and others
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