Thai Airways Comeback! Brokers Expect Share Price to Open High, Indicate Momentum for 2015 Profit to Soar
THAI returns to the runway on August 4th! Expect the price to surge from profit recovery. Brokers expect full-year 2025 profit to exceed 20 billion. Boeing order for 45 aircraft to strengthen the fleet.
revealed to that from the issue of Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (THAI) returning to buy and sell on the Stock Exchange of Thailand again on August 4, 2025Mr. Wichien Arayaphisit, Fundamental Investment Analyst, Liberator Securities Co., Ltd. (Liberator), disclosed to "Thansettakij" regarding Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (THAI) resuming trading on the Stock Exchange of Thailand on August 4, 2025.
THAI is believed to have chosen the right timing for its trading comeback. The Q1/2025 operating results show significant recovery, with revenue exceeding 51.7 billion baht and net profit surpassing 9.8 billion baht. This positive momentum is expected to continue throughout 2025.
Market analysts project THAI will achieve over 20 billion baht net profit in 2015. This suggests the stock price could surge significantly from its previous trading price of 3.32 baht on the first trading day of its return.
"I believe THAI has selected an optimal time to relist on the Thai stock exchange. With strong operational performance, sustained positive momentum, and the upcoming high tourism season in the second half of the year, we may see a substantial jump in the opening price on the first trading day."
However, one lingering concern is the substantial share count of 2.83 billion shares - significantly higher than the 23.1 billion shares at end-2024 and 2.18 billion shares at end-2023. Meanwhile, the average earnings per share (EPS) remains relatively low at around 0.70.
Mixed with political flavor
In addition, even though THAI has undergone a major business restructuring, as a national carrier, political influences remain intertwined, potentially positioning it as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with the United States - particularly regarding fleet expansion through new aircraft purchases.
Mr. Laworn Sangsanit, Chairman of Thai Airways International Public Company Limited, stated that the consideration of Thai Airways' fleet plan after previously procuring aircraft and engines has led to an agreement with Boeing and GE Aerospace to acquire 45 Boeing 787 aircraft.
It is understood that the airline currently holds purchase options for 35 additional aircraft (Option Order), with procurement plans under evaluation. THAI is participating in Thailand's tariff negotiation team with the U.S., having outlined a five-year investment plan totaling approximately 170 billion baht.
The investment breakdown includes approximately 120 billion baht allocated for new aircraft procurement, with 45 units already under contract with Boeing. Payments will be phased according to the delivery schedule commencing in 2020. Additionally, THAI plans to invest roughly 20 billion baht in cabin upgrades and service enhancements.
Including investment to support engine repairs and investment in aircraft maintenance centers, divided between Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi maintenance centers currently in operation, and investment in U-Tapao maintenance centers, with a budget of 10 billion baht, etc.
It is interesting to see how THAI will manage its investment in purchasing new aircraft, as well as the maintenance of existing aircraft in the fleet. It is expected that it will not be repeated because it must be admitted that although tourism has recovered better than during the pandemic, it has not been very good due to the volatile economy.
According to the prospectus recently filed by THAI with the Stock Exchange of Thailand, the allocated funds have been utilized for aircraft procurement and expenses under existing aircraft lease agreements. As of June's end, 6,317 million baht was expended on these purposes, with an additional 261.37 million baht allocated for aircraft cabin refurbishments and 41.74 million baht invested in the development of Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) Centers.
SET approves THAI's relisting for trading on the exchange
Concurrently, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has notified THAI that pursuant to its earlier announcement, the airline faced potential delisting effective March 8, 2021, following the disclosure of negative shareholders' equity in its 2020 financial statements.
Thai Airways has addressed the potential delisting issue and taken necessary actions to fully meet the specified criteria for resuming trading. The company has submitted a request to be exempted from possible delisting and to reopen trading of its securities on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Additionally, it has imposed restrictions on management-involved shareholders (Strategic Shareholders), prohibiting them from selling 55% of the paid-up capital within 1 year in accordance with the Silent Period requirements.
Therefore, the Stock Exchange of Thailand has approved THAI securities to be exempt from potential delisting by removing the "SP" (Suspension) and "NC" (Non-Compliance) designations, permitting THAI securities to trade on the SET under the Service Group, Transportation and Logistics Category effective August 4, 2025.
Additionally, the Stock Exchange of Thailand will not impose the highest and lowest trading price limits (Ceiling & Floor), Dynamic Price Band, or Auto Pause mechanisms for THAI securities trading on the specified day, which marks the first trading day, continuing until THAI securities are actively traded.
Once THAI securities begin trading, the Stock Exchange will implement the standard Ceiling & Floor rules, Dynamic Price Band parameters, and Auto Pause protocols for THAI securities starting from the following business day.
In addition, the Stock Exchange of Thailand will include THAI securities in the calculation of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index on the next business day after the first day of trading of the securities.
