Equity Research
The S&P 500 index inclusion effect has reappeared in recent years. Since 2021, the average stock has outperformed the equal-weight index by 4 pp on the day of announcement. Of the 65 stocks joining the S&P 500 during this period (excluding spin-offs), 48 (74%) have outperformed the equal-weight index.
24 Jul 2025 | 4:00am| 12pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Ryan Hammond and others
Last week US equities closed at ATH on continued positive macro data (Exhibit 1) and a strong US earnings season so far. Data from core retail sales rose (+0.5% in June), and the Philly Fed manufacturing index was above ...
22 Jul 2025 | 4:06am| 31pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA and others
We expect the market to have a muted short-term reaction to Alphabet’s Q2'25 earnings report based upon our first read/analysis of the results. In addition, the strong recent stock outperformance into this earnings report when coupled with the lesser-known variables around a search antitrust remedy decision in the coming weeks (as a likely timetable) might act as a cap on the stock short-term.
24 Jul 2025 | 4:41am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Eric Sheridan and others
Trade and Tariffs
Japan Economics Analyst: Is the Current Capex Uptrend Different From the Past? Implications for Future Capex (Otani)
23 Jul 2025 | 11:02am| 16pg| Research | Economics-Akira Otani and others
Japan Automobiles: Raising our estimates to reflect 15% auto tariffs; upgrade Subaru to Buy
24 Jul 2025 | 2:22am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Kota Yuzawa and others
Japan Technology: Hardware - Industrial Electronics: Japan-US tariff deal: Impact down c.30% vs. April; potential guidance upgrades at SEI, Mitsubishi Electric
24 Jul 2025 | 2:10am| 15pg| Research | Equity-Ryo Harada and others
HOYA (7741.T): Upgrade to Buy: Expect EPS to exceed market consensus on strong HDD demand, easing tariff uncertainty, and share buybacks
23 Jul 2025 | 2:41pm| 18pg| Research | Equity-Shuhei Nakamura and others
Japan Electronic Components: Tariff agreement: Focus on names with cautious assumptions/high Japan auto/industrial machinery exposure
24 Jul 2025 | 9:49am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Daiki Takayama and others
Japan Machinery: Automation: Japan-US tariff agreement: Focus on potential capex recovery for Japan OEMs/manufacturing sector
23 Jul 2025 | 3:20pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Yuichiro Isayama and others
Japan Healthcare: Implications of Japan-US tariff agreement: Focus on medtech re-rating potential
23 Jul 2025 | 11:53am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Akinori Ueda, Ph.D. and others
IN THE SPOTLIGHT
The Positives. We continue to see value in XOM's premium Upstream portfolio that includes advantaged Permian, Guyana, and LNG positions where the company has a strong track record of quarterly and operational execution. ...
Neil Mehta
Integrated Oil & Refiners | New York
23 Jul 2025 | 9:56am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and others
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM): First Take: Solid revenue with slight Software miss; strong margins and uptick to FCF guidance
24 Jul 2025 | 4:32am| 7pg| Research | Equity-James Schneider, Ph.D. and others
T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS): First Take: Solid net additions, with upside to EBITDA
24 Jul 2025 | 4:18am| 6pg| Research | Equity-James Schneider, Ph.D. and others
AT&T Inc. (T): Solid quarter and guidance uptick should sustain the turnaround story despite higher wireless competition - Buy
24 Jul 2025 | 1:56am| 11pg| Research | Equity-James Schneider, Ph.D. and others
Fiserv Inc. (FI): First Take: Miss on merchant revenue ex clover and as well as merchant margins; trims outlook
23 Jul 2025 | 8:11pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Will Nance and others
- Company HighlightsApple Inc. (AAPL): F3Q25 preview: Expect strong revenue trends; beat on gross margins, forex24 Jul 2025 | 4:08am| 35pg| Research | Equity-Michael Ng, CFA and othersTesla Inc. (TSLA): 2Q25 First Take24 Jul 2025 | 5:13am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Mark Delaney, CFA and othersSamsung Biologics Co. (207940.KS): 2Q25 earnings mixed with delayed delivery, raised FY25 revenue guidance to 25-30% y/y23 Jul 2025 | 11:31pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Chris Pan, CFA and othersTrent Ltd. (TREN.BO): Market share gain thesis playing out slower than expected; d/g to Neutral23 Jul 2025 | 8:49pm| 15pg| Research | Equity-Saurabh Kundan and othersTata Consumer Products Ltd. (TACN.BO): 1QFY26: Poised for an acceleration on revenue and margins24 Jul 2025 | 1:53am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Arnab Mitra and othersServiceNow Inc. (NOW): AI Execution, Platform Expansion Anchor Durable High-Growth Trajectory24 Jul 2025 | 10:36am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Kash Rangan and others
- Industry HighlightsAPAC Energy & Chemicals: Assessing potential impact from China's Anti-Involution23 Jul 2025 | 10:56pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Nikhil Bhandari and othersChina Solar: Key Q&As on Anti-Involution22 Jul 2025 | 6:22pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Mengwen Wang and othersAmericas Technology: Internet: Online Travel Q2'25 Preview: Analyzing the Industry Debates & Estimates23 Jul 2025 | 4:05am| 30pg| Research | Equity-Eric Sheridan and othersMetals & Mining: Feedback on Iron Ore & Steel Market Developments, Sentiment Shifts, and 2H Outlook24 Jul 2025 | 5:13am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Matt Greene and othersAmericas Technology: Internet: Q2'25 Gaming Industry Preview – Analyzing the Industry Debates & Estimates Ahead of Earnings23 Jul 2025 | 5:48am| 28pg| Research | Equity-Eric Sheridan and othersAmericas Technology: Internet: Online Dating Q2'25: Analyzing the Industry Debates Ahead of Earnings23 Jul 2025 | 5:55am| 20pg| Research | Equity-Eric Sheridan and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGY10 charts we are watching: Goldilocks and the three bears (PRESENTATION)23 Jul 2025 | 11:05pm| 56pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA and othersUS Weekly Kickstart: Dollar weakness provides a modest offset to tariff earnings pressure19 Jul 2025 | 4:01am| 24pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and othersIndia Strategy: Domestic funds turn selectively pro-cyclical; Foreign investors favour domestic pockets over exporters18 Jul 2025 | 3:47pm| 11pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Amorita Goel, CFA and others
- OPTIONSWeekly Options Watch: Attractive Options for Earnings-Day Volatility23 Jul 2025 | 5:04pm| 12pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and othersMacro Catalyst Reactions (22-Jul-2025)23 Jul 2025 | 12:04am| 1pg| Research | Options-John MarshallOptimal Overwrites this week (21-Jul-25)21 Jul 2025 | 9:12pm| 17pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and others
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
- All
- Upgrades
- Downgrades
- Initiations
- CL Adds
- CL Removes
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE): Reinstate at Neutral as Networking momentum is offset by AI uncertainty
24 Jul 2025 | 4:05am| 24pg| Research | Equity-Michael Ng, CFA and others
Latin America Banks: Clearer path to sustain high-teens ROE; Upgrade Credicorp to Neutral
24 Jul 2025 | 4:05am| 22pg| Research | Equity-Tito Labarta and others
Japan Automobiles: Raising our estimates to reflect 15% auto tariffs; upgrade Subaru to Buy
24 Jul 2025 | 2:22am| 13pg| Research | Equity-Kota Yuzawa and others
Trent Ltd. (TREN.BO): Market share gain thesis playing out slower than expected; d/g to Neutral
23 Jul 2025 | 8:49pm| 15pg| Research | Equity-Saurabh Kundan and others
Latest research
ServiceNow Inc. (NOW): AI Execution, Platform Expansion Anchor Durable High-Growth Trajectory
24 Jul 2025 | 10:36am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Kash Rangan and others
Mattel Inc. (MAT): Earnings Review: Reinstated 2025 guidance amidst tariff uncertainty
24 Jul 2025 | 10:00am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Stephen Laszczyk and others
Graco Inc. (GGG): First Take: 2Q25 miss, FY25 growth guide unchanged
24 Jul 2025 | 9:51am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Joe Ritchie and others
Japan Electronic Components: Tariff agreement: Focus on names with cautious assumptions/high Japan auto/industrial machinery exposure
24 Jul 2025 | 9:49am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Daiki Takayama and others
Baker Hughes Co. (BKR): Raising Price Target On Sustained Industrial Orders Growth and New Opportunities; Buy
24 Jul 2025 | 9:41am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Neil Mehta and others
Sands China (1928.HK): 2Q25 results inline. GGR recovery led by mass not VIP. Signs of base mass returning. Buy
24 Jul 2025 | 9:39am| 11pg| Research | Equity-Simon Cheung, CFA and others
Fiserv Inc. (FI): Key takeaways: Margin concerns add to revenue slowdown concerns
24 Jul 2025 | 9:38am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Will Nance and others
Banco del Bajio (BBAJIOO.MX): 2Q25 First Take: Lower 2025 guidance
24 Jul 2025 | 9:18am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Tito Labarta and others
Fibra MTY (FMTY14.MX): 2Q25 Earnings First Take: Largely In-Line Quarter; Continued Focus on M&A
24 Jul 2025 | 9:18am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Jorel Guilloty and others
First Quantum Minerals (FM.TO): 2Q25 Beat; Well Positioned For a Strong 2H25
24 Jul 2025 | 9:17am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Marcio Farid and others
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Quarterly Residential Solar Update Call with Ohm Analytics22 Jul 2025 | 4:12am| Equity Research
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DAILY ROUNDUPS
The 720: Japan Autos, HOYA upgrade, Trent downgrade, Japan Machinery, APAC Energy & Chemicals, Samsung Bio, Apple
24 Jul 2025 | 7:18am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
Midday Market Intelligence: mix 'n' match
24 Jul 2025 | 1:28am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
Market Intelligence: US Morning Update
23 Jul 2025 | 8:34pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
webcast: Global
24 Jul 2025 | 3pm HK | 3am NY | 8am LN
We will discuss our outlook for base metals, demand and supply trends, as well as tariff implications.
Eoin Dinsmore, Head of Industrial Metals Research
Paul Young, Co-Head of APAC Natural Resources & Clean Energy
Matt Greene, European Metals & Mining Analyst
Passcode: 730793; Meeting ID: 966 1833 1565
Global Investment Research
webcast: Asia
24 Jul 2025 | 4pm HK | 4am NY | 9am LN
On the back of rising policy focus in addressing supply discipline, we will discuss our views on the anti-involution campaign, policy expectations...Read more
Hui Shan, Chief China Economist
Trina Chen, Co-head, Greater China Equity Research
Jacqueline Du, Head of China Industrial Tech Research
Mengwen Wang, China Clean Energy Analyst
Caleb Chan, Asia Research Merchandising
Passcode: 563323; Zoom Meeting ID: 916 5119 0338
Global Investment Research in partnership with FICC & Equities
webcast: Americas
24 Jul 2025 | 1pm NY | 6pm LN | 1am HK(+1)
Join us to discuss new pipeline construction – how we’re thinking about the cost of building these pipes, the impact on nat gas balances today (and...Read more
Samantha Dart, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research
John Mackay, Head of Americas Midstream Research
Steve Gray, Co-head of North Americas Energy Sales
Shane Lee, Head of North American Nat Gas Trading
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
24 Jul 2025 | 1:30pm NY | 6:30pm LN | 1:30am HK(+1)
Jane Wu, Ph.D., US Emerging Biotechnology Analyst
Richard Law, Ph.D., US Emerging Biotechnology Analyst
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22-24 Sep 2025 | Munich
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