Equity Research
Who will ultimately bear the burden of additional tariffs by the US is a key issue for market participants and economists. In particular, how the tariffs will be borne by US consumers, US importers, or exporters to the US is important not only for understanding inflation trends in the US but also for predicting Japan's future export volumes and corporate earnings.
17 Jul 2025 | 1:27pm| 11pg| Research | Economics-Tomohiro Ota and others
The average Tech stock in S&P 500 is implying an earnings-day-move of 4.7%, the lowest in two decades suggesting a complacent setup and lower probability for relief rallies. Our analysis of GS vs Consensus aggregate EBITDA estimates of the covered stocks in XLK indicate that our analysts see marginal downside to consensus estimates for the current and next 4 quarters. With 50% of stocks by weight in XLK reporting in the next two weeks, we recommend hedging tech exposure with XLK puts or buying puts on stocks with high earnings revision risk.
17 Jul 2025 | 5:01pm| 26pg| Research | Options-Arun Prakash, CFA and others
Hong Kong's IPO market has experienced a resurgence, with 51 companies listed raising HK$124bn in capital year-to-date, and over 200 companies in the pipeline. We summarize the key investor questions:
- Why is HK's IPO market becoming more active?
- Why are A shares and ADRs pursuing dual listings in HK?
- Is this a sentiment boost or liquidity drain?
- Who is participating in these IPOs?
- What factors drive post-IPO performance?
- What are the spillover effects to onshore and sector peers?
- What are the implications for post-IPO indices and Southbound inclusion?
- What are the investment implications?
16 Jul 2025 | 4:20pm| 21pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Si Fu, Ph.D. and others
We hosted Hon Hai management on July 17 as part of our Taiwan AI Corp Call series (July 7 - 17). Key discussions were on its AI server business ramp-up, its automotive long-term opportunities, tariff impacts and the company's global expansions.
17 Jul 2025 | 3:23pm| 7pg| Research | Equity-Allen Chang and others
TSMC hosted its 2Q25 analyst meeting on July 17. We think that TSMC's tone towards advanced node demand is even more positive with AI customers showing no signs of demand slowdown. We now expect revenue contribution from N2 to be significantly higher vs N3 at the initial ramp up stage especially in the first 2 years, with stronger demand driven not only by smartphone but also HPC, in our view. Besides N2, we also raise our wafer revenue forecast for N5/N3 eyeing continuous demand strength from AI/HPC segments.
17 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity - Bruce Lu and others
Netflix Inc. (NFLX): Q2'25 Earnings First Take
We expect the market to have a muted reaction to Netflix’s Q2 ‘25 earnings report and forward operating commentary for Q3 2025 and updated FY 2025 guidance. Against heightened expectations with the stock performing well intra-quarter, the company delivered a revenue (driven primarily by f/x) & operating income margin beat, and positive mgmt commentary in the s/h letter around late quarter additions to subscribers resulted in an outperformance relative to internal expectations, with mgmt also noting that the company remains on track to double ad revenue in 2025. In terms of forward guidance, mgmt guided Q3 2025 revenue ahead of Street estimates and increased the FY margin framework.
17 Jul 2025 | Research | Equity - Bruce Lu and others
PepsiCo Inc. (PEP): Q2 top & bottom line beat with a FY25 dollar EPS raise - Reiterate Buy
18 Jul 2025 | 7:32am| 16pg| Research | Equity-Bonnie Herzog and others
Abbott Laboratories (ABT): 2Q25: Missing the Forest for the Trees; Reset Provides Compelling Entry Point
18 Jul 2025 | 5:38am| 11pg| Research | Equity-David Roman and others
DISCO (6146.T): Earnings Review: Shipment guidance weak for 2Q but calls for growth in 3Q; progress in 3D-NAND hybrid bonding; Buy
17 Jul 2025 | 7:44pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Shuhei Nakamura and others
Axis Bank (AXBK.BO): Earnings Review: AQ concerns overdone; Core PPOP better; Loan growth starts; Valuation discount to narrow; Buy (on CL)
18 Jul 2025 | 7:30am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Rahul Jain and others
United Airlines Holdings (UAL): Demand inflection & industry capacity reductions to drive 2H RASM improvement; Reiterate Buy
18 Jul 2025 | 3:53am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Catherine O'Brien and others
- Company HighlightsSK Hynix Inc. (000660.KS): HBM speed bump in 2026; downgrade to Neutral17 Jul 2025 | 7:18am| 27pg| Research | Equity-Giuni Lee and othersJohnson & Johnson (JNJ): The Power Of The Pharma Portfolio On Display, Again17 Jul 2025 | 6:01pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Asad Haider, CFA and othersASML Holding (ASML.AS): De-risked 2026 against the backdrop of solid orders17 Jul 2025 | 11:18am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Alexander Duval and othersGE Aerospace (GE): 2025 and 2028 outlook updates show multiple sources of upside to numbers; Buy18 Jul 2025 | 10:19am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Noah Poponak, CFA and othersCalbee Inc (2229.T): Not overvalued after share price decline; up to Neutral, higher domestic margins and overseas sales growth needed for re-rating18 Jul 2025 | 1:32am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Takashi Miyazaki and othersDell Technologies Inc. (DELL): Key takeaways from July 2025 Dell investor field trip18 Jul 2025 | 7:38am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Michael Ng, CFA and others
- Industry HighlightsJapan Machinery: Downgrade Keyence to Neutral from Buy; focus on growth/capital efficiency balance across the sector18 Jul 2025 | 12:03am| 41pg| Research | Equity-Yuichiro Isayama and othersGlobal Tech: Raising 2026E on ASIC rising liquid cooling trend and rack-level AI servers ramp up; +66% TAM growth in 2026E17 Jul 2025 | 7:30pm| 10pg| Research | Equity-Allen Chang and othersIndia IT Services: Wipro/LTIM Earnings Review: Muted growth with low visibility on forward earnings, though deal wins strong18 Jul 2025 | 2:58am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Manish Adukia, CFA and othersUS Autos & Industrial Tech: Updating our charging industry model to reflect our recent updated EV light vehicle outlook, and 2024 actuals18 Jul 2025 | 6:56am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Mark Delaney, CFA and othersEurope Banks: Looking ahead to Q2 and medium-term expectations18 Jul 2025 | 12:39am| 21pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hallam and othersGlobal Datacenters: Supply/demand update: Improving demand picture extends tightness through 2025 + sector read-across16 Jul 2025 | 4:57pm| 27pg| Research | Equity-James Schneider, Ph.D. and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYGOAL Kickstart: Selectively 'tariff-fied': Few signs of broad tariff risk pricing, but selective impacts15 Jul 2025 | 3:14am| 29pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Andrea Ferrario and others2025 Portfolio Passport: Analyzing foreign sales exposure of US firms15 Jul 2025 | 5:50am| 34pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and othersUS Weekly Kickstart: Investor feedback to our revised S&P 500 forecasts12 Jul 2025 | 4:16am| 25pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and others
- OPTIONSMonthly Expiration Highlights (July 2025)17 Jul 2025 | 6:04pm| 10pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and othersWeekly Options Watch: Stock Replacement Opportunities16 Jul 2025 | 4:59pm| 11pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and othersMacro Catalyst Reactions (15-Jul-2025)15 Jul 2025 | 9:11pm| 1pg| Research | Options-John Marshall
RATING AND LIST CHANGES
- All
- Upgrades
- Downgrades
- Initiations
- CL Adds
- CL Removes
Calbee Inc (2229.T): Not overvalued after share price decline; up to Neutral, higher domestic margins and overseas sales growth needed for re-rating
18 Jul 2025 | 1:32am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Takashi Miyazaki and others
Japan Machinery: Downgrade Keyence to Neutral from Buy; focus on growth/capital efficiency balance across the sector
18 Jul 2025 | 12:03am| 41pg| Research | Equity-Yuichiro Isayama and others
NewAmsterdam Pharma (NAMS): Compelling Phase 3 Data with Range of Cardiovascular Benefits, Awaiting CVOT; Initiate at Neutral
17 Jul 2025 | 6:23pm| 28pg| Research | Equity-Asad Haider, CFA and others
I
SK Hynix Inc. (000660.KS): HBM speed bump in 2026; downgrade to Neutral
17 Jul 2025 | 7:18am| 27pg| Research | Equity-Giuni Lee and others
Latest research
GE Aerospace (GE): 2025 and 2028 outlook updates show multiple sources of upside to numbers; Buy
18 Jul 2025 | 10:19am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Noah Poponak, CFA and others
Brazil Real Estate: Malls - IRR & Rates Sensitivity Analysis; Iguatemi Patios Integration
18 Jul 2025 | 10:00am| 25pg| Research | Equity-Jorel Guilloty and others
EZTEC (EZTC3.SA): 2Q25 Operational Preview: Better Than Expected Sales; Increasing Cancellations
18 Jul 2025 | 9:37am| 6pg| Research | Equity-Jorel Guilloty and others
Latin America Asset Managers: 2Q25 preview: Expect positive trends for PAX and VINP
18 Jul 2025 | 9:36am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Tito Labarta and others
Insurance: Property & Casualty: Updating PGR & ALL Post June Data Points
18 Jul 2025 | 9:36am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Robert Cox and others
Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR): 2Q25 EPS: A well-rounded beat underlines the long-term growth trajectory; reiterate Buy
18 Jul 2025 | 9:26am| 7pg| Research | Equity-James Yaro and others
Hypera Pharma (HYPE3.SA): 2Q25 earnings preview
18 Jul 2025 | 9:14am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Gustavo Miele
Americas Banks: Regional: Key takeaways from FITB, CFG and SNV earning
18 Jul 2025 | 9:08am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Ryan M. Nash, CFA and others
Japan Healthcare: Weekly highlights: Looking for the timing of a full-fledged share price rebound
18 Jul 2025 | 8:56am| 5pg| Research | Equity-Akinori Ueda, Ph.D. and others
Deere & Co. (DE): Notes from the road: Unit profitability, Precision Ag, Inventories
18 Jul 2025 | 8:34am| 16pg| Research | Equity-Jerry Revich, CFA and others
Rating changes (last 24 hrs)
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DAILY ROUNDUPS
The 720: TSMC, Japan Machinery – Keyence downgrade, Liquid Cooling, Disco, Hon Hai
18 Jul 2025 | 7:20am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
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Global Investment Research
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21 Jul 2025 | 11am NY | 4pm LN | 11pm HK
Topics of discussion: 1) The Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) proposal and potential implications for RIN prices and feedstocks; 2) Key areas of...Read more
Brett Gibbs, Equity Research Analyst - Renewable Fuels, Bloomberg Intelligence
Duffy Fischer, Head of US Chemicals Equity Research
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21 Jul 2025 | 12pm NY | 5pm LN | 12am HK(+1)
In this session, we will discuss the latest quarterly trends in the U.S. residential solar market, including updates on volume growth, geographic mix...Read more
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Rohan Humphrey, Vice President of Research & Analytics, Ohm Analytics
Brian Lee, Head of US Clean Technology Research
Passcode: 366755 | Zoom ID: 944 8497 9537
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webcast: Global
22 Jul 2025 | 3pm HK | 3am NY | 8am LN
We will discuss the steel market outlook, investor feedback, and trade ideas.
Phillip Killicoat , Bulks Trading, GBM
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Passcode: 221137; Meeting ID: 968 3216 7230
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