1. Introduction
1. 内部介绍

In the last decade, the global new energy vehicle (NEV) industry has experienced exponential growth driven by international climate targets, policy incentives, and advancements in battery technology. However, this rapid development has exposed the industry to a range of new and intensifying supply chain risks, particularly regarding access to critical raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel—key inputs for electric vehicle batteries. The convergence of global crises including the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and abrupt policy shifts has disrupted logistics, inflated commodity prices, and destabilized production planning cycles (Ren et al., 2024; Sun et al., 2022). These challenges have not only threatened the continuity of operations but have introduced significant project-level risks such as production delays, cost overruns, and missed delivery milestones (Jones, Nguyen-Tien and Elliott, 2023).
在过去十年中，受国际气候目标、政策激励措施和电池技术进步的推动，全球新能源汽车 (NEV) 行业经历了指数级增长。然而，这种快速发展也使该行业面临一系列新的且日益加剧的供应链风险，尤其是在获取锂、钴和镍等关键原材料方面——这些是电动汽车电池的关键投入。新冠疫情、地缘政治冲突和政策突变等全球危机交织在一起，扰乱了物流，推高了大宗商品价格，并扰乱了生产计划周期（Ren 等人，2024 年；Sun 等人，2022 年）。这些挑战不仅威胁到运营的连续性，还带来了重大的项目风险，例如生产延误、成本超支和无法按时交付（Jones、Nguyen-Tien 和 Elliott，2023 年）。

Within this volatile environment, strategic adaptability in project management has become a critical differentiator for NEV manufacturers. Companies are now required to move beyond traditional lean models and adopt robust, flexible, and forward-looking strategies that can absorb shocks while maintaining performance targets. In particular, firms like Tesla and BYD have responded with varied yet comparably ambitious strategic measures. Tesla has prioritized vertical integration and diversified supplier engagement, alongside leveraging digital technologies for enhanced supply chain visibility and agile response (Daum, 2022). In contrast, BYD has followed a strategy of upstream consolidation, acquiring lithium resources, and developing internal battery production capabilities, which has allowed it to exercise greater control over core material supply (Tan and Keiding, 2024).
在这种动荡的环境中，项目管理中的战略适应性已成为新能源汽车制造商的关键差异化因素。如今，企业需要超越传统的精益模式，采取稳健、灵活且具有前瞻性的战略，以便在保持业绩目标的同时吸收冲击。尤其是像特斯拉和比亚迪这样的公司，他们采取了多种多样但同样雄心勃勃的战略措施。特斯拉优先考虑垂直整合和多元化的供应商合作，同时利用数字技术增强供应链可视性和敏捷响应能力（Daum，2022）。相比之下，比亚迪则采取了上游整合的战略，收购锂资源并发展内部电池生产能力，这使其能够更好地控制核心材料供应（Tan 和 Keiding，2024）。

Despite increasing interest in the resilience of supply chains, current research offers limited quantitative comparison of how specific project management strategies influence delivery outcomes in times of crisis. Much of the existing literature is focused on qualitative case descriptions or generalized frameworks that fail to account for the heterogeneity of firms’ resource bases and strategic objectives (Kim et al., 2021; Pollack et al., 2018). Moreover, there is a lack of empirical studies that evaluate how combinations of strategies—such as localization, digital collaboration, vertical integration, and redundancy—interact to influence project delivery performance across dimensions of cost, time, and launch execution.
尽管人们对供应链的韧性越来越感兴趣，但目前的研究对特定项目管理策略如何影响危机时期交付结果的定量比较有限。现有文献大多侧重于定性案例描述或泛化框架，未能考虑企业资源基础和战略目标的异质性（Kim 等人，2021；Pollack 等人，2018）。此外，缺乏实证研究来评估本地化、数字化协作、垂直整合和冗余等策略组合如何相互作用，从而在成本、时间和启动执行等维度上影响项目交付绩效。

To address these gaps, this study conducts a comparative quantitative analysis of Tesla and BYD’s strategic adaptations during periods of raw material shortages from 2022 to 2024. By constructing a strategy-performance matrix, the research identifies which project-level strategies were deployed in response to material constraints and evaluates their effectiveness based on key performance indicators. These include launch delay times (measured in months), cost deviations (measured against budget), quarterly delivery volumes, and changes in unit manufacturing costs or margins. The approach provides a structured comparison between firms, offering a unique perspective on how different strategic choices manifest in real-world project outcomes.
为了弥补这些差距，本研究对特斯拉和比亚迪在2022年至2024年原材料短缺时期的战略调整进行了比较定量分析。通过构建战略-绩效矩阵，研究确定了为应对原材料短缺而部署的项目级战略，并基于关键绩效指标评估其有效性。这些指标包括上市延迟时间（以月为单位）、成本偏差（以预算为基准）、季度交付量以及单位制造成本或利润率的变化。该方法提供了企业之间的结构化比较，从而提供了一个独特的视角来观察不同的战略选择如何在实际项目成果中体现。

This research is guided by the following central question: How did major NEV manufacturers adapt their project management strategies to battery raw material shortages and other related material constraints during the global supply chain crisis, and what measurable impacts did these adaptations have on project delivery performance?
本研究以以下核心问题为指导：在全球供应链危机期间，主要新能源汽车制造商如何调整其项目管理策略以适应电池原材料短缺和其他相关材料限制，以及这些调整对项目交付绩效产生了哪些可衡量的影响？

To answer this, the study pursues three key objectives:
为了回答这个问题，该研究追求三个主要目标：

To identify and evaluate key project management strategies used by Tesla and BYD during raw material shortages, focusing on their impact on delivery, cost, and launch performance.
识别和评估特斯拉和比亚迪在原材料短缺期间使用的关键项目管理策略，重点关注其对交付、成本和发布性能的影响。

To analyze the synergistic effects of combined strategies in enhancing project resilience and delivery stability.
分析组合策略在增强项目弹性和交付稳定性方面的协同效应。

To formulate evidence-based project management recommendations for the NEV industry to better cope with supply chain disruptions and raw material volatility.
为新能源汽车行业制定基于证据的项目管理建议，以更好地应对供应链中断和原材料波动。

By bridging the gap between supply chain risk management theory and project performance data, this research offers practical insights for NEV managers and contributes to the academic understanding of strategic project adaptation under crisis conditions.
通过弥合供应链风险管理理论与项目绩效数据之间的差距，该研究为 NEV 经理提供了实用的见解，并有助于学术界对危机条件下战略项目适应性的理解。

1. Introduction
1. 内部介绍

Background and Rationale 可以引入 iron triangle来说明问题，希望有一些具体数据的体现和图示的展现。说明从2020年到2024年的供应链危机问题。

Research Question: How did major NEV manufacturers adapt their project management strategies to battery raw material shortages and other related material constraints during the global supply chain crisis, and what measurable impacts did these adaptations have on project delivery performance?
研究问题 ： 在全球供应链危机期间，主要新能源汽车制造商如何调整其项目管理策略以应对电池原材料短缺和其他相关材料限制，以及这些调整对项目交付绩效产生了哪些可衡量的影响？

Aims and Objectives
目的和目标

Scope and Method Overview
范围和方法概述

Structure of the Dissertation
论文结构

2. Literature Review
2.文献综述

2.1 Project Management Theories in Crisis Contexts
2.1 危机情境中的项目管理理论

The evolution of project management theory has been deeply driven by a recognition that traditional approaches often expose their limitations when confronting crisis situations characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). Consequently, contemporary project management academic research has increasingly focused on constructing theoretical frameworks capable of effectively addressing the challenges of crisis environments. Three major theoretical paradigms demonstrate significant relevance in understanding project management in crisis contexts: agile project management theory, risk and uncertainty management theory, and project resilience theory.
项目管理理论的演变深受这样一种认识的驱动：传统方法在应对以波动性、不确定性、复杂性和模糊性（VUCA）为特征的危机情境时，往往会暴露出自身的局限性。因此，当代项目管理学术研究日益注重构建能够有效应对危机环境挑战的理论框架。三大理论范式对于理解危机情境下的项目管理至关重要：敏捷项目管理理论、风险与不确定性管理理论以及项目韧性理论。

2.1.1 Agile Project Management Theory
2.1.1 敏捷项目管理理论

Agile project management theory can be defined as a project management approach that emphasizes adaptability, iterative development, and customer collaboration, addressing constantly changing requirements and environmental uncertainty through short sprints and continuous feedback (Conforto et al., 2014). This theory is built upon the four core values of the Agile Manifesto: individuals and interactions over processes and tools, working software over comprehensive documentation, customer collaboration over contract negotiation, and responding to change over following a plan (Beck et al., 2001). The theoretical framework emphasizes achieving rapid project delivery and continuous improvement through self-organizing teams, frequent stakeholder communication, short iterative cycles, and project scope flexibility (Serrador & Turner, 2015). Agile theory maintains that the best architectures, requirements, and designs emerge from self-organizing teams, and teams should regularly reflect on how to become more effective and then adjust their behavior accordingly (Beck et al., 2001). In highly uncertain environments, agile methods promote adaptive planning, evolutionary development, and rapid response to change, while traditional predictive planning approaches often fail due to their rigidity and inability to adapt to change. A typical application case is the Brazilian pharmaceutical company's IT project, which successfully addressed the challenges of frequent requirement changes by adopting the Scrum framework. Research shows that compared to traditional methods, agile approaches in this project significantly improved customer satisfaction and project delivery speed while reducing project risks and cost overruns (Almeida et al., 2017).
敏捷项目管理理论可以定义为一种强调适应性、迭代开发和客户协作的项目管理方法，通过短时间冲刺和持续反馈来应对不断变化的需求和环境不确定性（Conforto 等人，2014）。该理论建立在敏捷宣言的四大核心价值观之上：个体和交互重于流程和工具、可工作的软件重于详尽的文档、客户协作重于合同谈判、响应变化重于遵循计划（Beck 等人，2001）。该理论框架强调通过自组织团队、频繁的利益相关者沟通、较短的迭代周期和项目范围灵活性来实现快速的项目交付和持续改进（Serrador 和 Turner，2015）。敏捷理论认为，最佳的架构、需求和设计源自自组织团队，团队应定期反思如何提高效率，并相应地调整自身行为（Beck 等人，2001）。在高度不确定的环境中，敏捷方法能够促进适应性规划、演进式开发和快速响应变化，而传统的预测性规划方法则因其僵化和无法适应变化而常常失败。 一个典型的应用案例是巴西制药公司的 IT 项目，该项目通过采用 Scrum 框架成功应对了需求频繁变更的挑战。研究表明，与传统方法相比，该项目中的敏捷方法显著提高了客户满意度和项目交付速度，同时降低了项目风险和成本超支（Almeida 等，2017）。

However, Gemino et al. (2021) found through an international study of 477 cross-industry projects that 52% of projects adopted hybrid rather than pure agile methods, indicating the limitations of pure agile approaches in practice. Additionally, Dikert et al. (2016) point out that the greatest challenges in large-scale agile transformations stem from stakeholder management, including challenges related to agile adaptation, agile transformation, and agile change. Jahr (2014) further notes that agile methods face challenges in projects requiring strict time and cost control, particularly in safety-critical industries where their flexibility may conflict with regulatory requirements. Despite facing challenges in practice regarding scalability, stakeholder coordination, and compatibility with specific regulatory requirements, agile project management theory continues to provide effective theoretical guidance and practical pathways for enterprises to enhance responsiveness and deliver value in crisis environments characterized by significant VUCA features through its core mechanisms emphasizing adaptive planning, rapid response to change, and continuous iteration.
然而，Gemino 等（2021）通过一项涵盖 477 个跨行业项目的国际研究发现，52%的项目采用了混合敏捷方法而非纯敏捷方法，这表明纯敏捷方法在实践中存在局限性。此外，Dikert 等（2016）指出，大规模敏捷转型面临的最大挑战来自利益相关者管理，包括敏捷适应、敏捷转型和敏捷变革相关的挑战。Jahr（2014）进一步指出，敏捷方法在需要严格控制时间和成本的项目中面临挑战，尤其是在安全关键型行业，其灵活性可能与法规要求相冲突。尽管敏捷项目管理理论在实践中面临着可扩展性、利益相关者协调以及与特定法规要求兼容等方面的挑战，但它凭借其强调自适应规划、快速响应变化和持续迭代的核心机制，继续为企业在具有显著 VUCA 特征的危机环境中提升响应能力、创造价值提供有效的理论指导和实践路径。

2.1.2 Risk and Uncertainty Management Theory
2.1.2 风险与不确定性管理理论

Risk and uncertainty management theory refers to a comprehensive framework aimed at identifying, evaluating, and managing threats and opportunities in projects, emphasizing the transformation from traditional threat-oriented risk management to a more comprehensive uncertainty management approach (Ward & Chapman, 2003). The core viewpoint of this theory is that project threat management and project opportunity management are two sides of the same coin; project risk management cannot ignore opportunity management without significantly weakening achievable objectives (Chapman, 2000). The theoretical framework is based on Milliken's (1987) three types of uncertainty: state uncertainty (uncertainty about environmental conditions), effect uncertainty (uncertainty about cause-and-effect relationships), and response uncertainty (uncertainty about available options). This theory emphasizes that effective uncertainty management must go beyond traditional risk identification and assessment to focus on how to create value and seize opportunities within uncertainty (Jaafari, 2001). Chapman (2000) also proposes that uncertainty management should be a mindset and philosophy that permeates the entire spectrum of project activities, rather than merely an independent planning and response operation. The Swedish Barsebäck Nuclear Power Plant decommissioning project successfully mitigated many challenges in current project risk management practice by combining project risk management capabilities with professional knowledge of the project's actual content. Research demonstrates that good preparation and planning are vital to the quality of subsequent processes (Torp & Klakegg, 2016).
风险与不确定性管理理论是指旨在识别、评估和管理项目中威胁与机遇的综合框架，强调从传统的以威胁为导向的风险管理向更全面的不确定性管理方法的转变（Ward & Chapman，2003）。该理论的核心观点是，项目威胁管理和项目机遇管理是同一事物的两个方面；项目风险管理不能忽视机遇管理，否则会显著削弱可实现的目标（Chapman，2000）。该理论框架基于 Milliken（1987）提出的三种不确定性：状态不确定性（环境条件的不确定性）、效应不确定性（因果关系的不确定性）和响应不确定性（可用选项的不确定性）。该理论强调，有效的不确定性管理必须超越传统的风险识别和评估，而要关注如何在不确定性中创造价值并抓住机遇（Jaafari，2001）。 Chapman（2000）也提出，不确定性管理应该成为一种贯穿整个项目活动范围的思维方式和理念，而不仅仅是一项独立的规划和响应操作。 瑞典巴塞贝克核电站退役项目通过将项目风险管理能力与对项目实际内容的专业知识相结合，成功缓解了当前项目风险管理实践中的诸多挑战。研究表明，良好的准备和规划对后续流程的质量至关重要（Torp & Klakegg，2016）。

However, current risk and uncertainty management theory also has some limitations. Johansen et al. (2016) challenge the apparent tendency of project risk management to focus on the negative aspects of uncertainty, pointing out that although uncertainty management theory is well-established, it does not fully explain why opportunities often remain unexploited, with empirical research showing a clear gap between theory and practice. Furthermore, Perminova et al. (2008) note that scholars lack a common understanding of what uncertainty means, creating practical challenges for project managers implementing uncertainty management frameworks in crisis contexts. More importantly, Lichtenberg (2016) argues that the theory's reliance on probability-based assessments becomes problematic in crisis situations where historical data may be irrelevant or unavailable. Overall, in highly dynamic crisis contexts, the core paradigm advocated by risk and uncertainty management theory, which involves transcending threat orientation, embracing uncertainty, and seeking value creation, establishes an important theoretical foundation for organizations to build decision resilience and systematic response capabilities. However, its limitations in conceptual unity, opportunity utilization effectiveness, and the applicability of probability-based methods still need to be overcome through joint efforts from both theoretical and practical communities.
然而，当前的风险与不确定性管理理论也存在一些局限性。Johansen 等人（2016）对项目风险管理侧重不确定性负面影响的明显倾向提出了质疑，指出尽管不确定性管理理论已得到充分认可，但其并不能完全解释为何机会往往未被充分利用，实证研究表明理论与实践之间存在明显差距。此外，Perminova 等人（2008）指出，学者们对不确定性的含义缺乏共识，这给项目经理在危机情境中实施不确定性管理框架带来了实际挑战。更重要的是，Lichtenberg（2016）认为，该理论对基于概率的评估的依赖在危机情境中会变得难以捉摸，因为历史数据可能不相关或无法获取。总而言之，在高度动态的危机情境中，风险与不确定性管理理论所倡导的核心范式——超越威胁导向、拥抱不确定性、寻求价值创造——为组织构建决策韧性和系统性响应能力奠定了重要的理论基础。但其在概念统一性、机会利用有效性、基于概率的方法的适用性等方面的局限性，仍需理论界和实践界的共同努力来克服。

2.1.3 Project Resilience Theory
2.1.3 项目韧性理论

Project resilience theory can be defined as the ability of project organizations to maintain performance, adapt to change, and recover from shocks when facing adversity, emphasizing the cultivation and maintenance of project adaptive capabilities in high-risk environments through dynamic processes (Naderpajouh et al., 2023). This theory encompasses three key elements: first, contextual processing, where sensebreaking and adaptive sensemaking evolve as adversity unfolds; second, communal processing, which forms the socio-emotional foundation for resilience; third, shifting between different modes of emergent responding, through which project organizations harness the stability of structured responses while maintaining flexibility to adapt under pressure (Naderpajouh et al., 2023). The theoretical framework emphasizes that resilience is both a function of planning and preparing for future crises (planned resilience) and adapting to chronic stresses and acute shocks (adaptive resilience) (Thomas et al., 2016). This theory maintains that resilience is an emergent property of complex adaptive systems (Williams et al., 2017) and cannot be simply achieved through preset procedures or tools, but must be cultivated through organizational learning, social networks, and collaboration.The analysis case of survivors from the 1972 crash of Uruguayan Air Force Flight 571 examined the survivors' 72-day experience in the Andes, finding that the uncertainty, time pressure, interpersonal conflict, and intense emotions they faced were like challenges in modern project organizations. Research shows that resilience emerges through members' daily social interactions, providing important insights for understanding resilience management in high-risk environments (Naderpajouh et al., 2023).
项目韧性理论可以定义为项目组织在逆境中保持绩效、适应变化和从冲击中恢复的能力，强调通过动态过程在高风险环境中培养和维持项目适应能力（Naderpajouh 等，2023）。该理论包含三个关键要素：首先，情境加工，其中，随着逆境的展开，意义破除和适应性意义建构不断发展；其次，共同体加工，构成了韧性的社会情感基础；第三，在不同应急响应模式之间转换，项目组织通过这种转换，既能够利用结构化响应的稳定性，又能够在压力下保持灵活性（Naderpajouh 等，2023）。该理论框架强调，韧性既包括规划和准备未来危机的功能（计划性韧性），也包括适应慢性压力和急性冲击的功能（适应性韧性）（Thomas 等，2016）。该理论认为，韧性是复杂自适应系统的一种涌现特性（Williams et al.，2017），不能简单地通过预设的程序或工具获得，而必须通过组织学习、社会网络和协作来培养。1972 年乌拉圭空军 571 航班空难幸存者的分析案例考察了幸存者在安第斯山脉 72 天的经历，发现他们所面临的不确定性、时间压力、人际冲突和强烈情绪就像现代项目组织中的挑战一样。研究表明，韧性在成员日常的社会互动中涌现，这为理解高风险环境下的韧性管理提供了重要启示（Naderpajouh et al.，2023）。

However, project resilience theory also suffers from conceptual ambiguity. Williams et al. (2017) point out that crisis and crisis management research has gaps, lacks research synthesis, and often employs normative conceptualizations of crisis, meaning traditional crisis management models focused on strict centralized control are inefficient today. Kutsch & Hall (2015) further note that while this theory has advantages in providing a holistic framework for understanding project adaptation under adversity, it has conceptual ambiguity regarding specific mechanisms for resilience development and maintenance. The theory's emphasis on emergent properties and adaptive capabilities, while intuitively appealing, provides limited actionable guidance for project managers seeking to establish specific resilience strategies. Even though project resilience theory suffers from conceptual ambiguity, particularly in specific mechanisms for resilience development and actionable guidance, and its critique of traditional centralized control models reveals potential gaps in practice, this theory provides a crucial theoretical perspective and practical framework for project organizations to maintain core functions, respond to unpredictable adversity, and achieve continuous evolution in crisis contexts by emphasizing dynamic adaptation capabilities in high-risk environments, recovery from shocks, and integrating multi-level elements to build systemic resilience.
然而，项目韧性理论也存在概念模糊性的问题。Williams 等人（2017）指出，危机和危机管理研究存在空白，缺乏研究综合，并且通常采用规范性的危机概念化，这意味着传统的、侧重于严格集中控制的危机管理模式在当今效率低下。Kutsch & Hall（2015）进一步指出，虽然该理论在提供理解逆境下项目适应性的整体框架方面具有优势，但它在韧性发展和维持的具体机制方面存在概念模糊性。该理论强调涌现特性和适应能力，虽然直观上很有吸引力，但对于寻求制定具体韧性策略的项目经理来说，其提供的可操作指导有限。尽管项目韧性理论在概念上存在模糊性，特别是在具体的韧性发展机制和可操作性指导方面存在不足，且其对传统集中控制模式的批判也暴露出实践中的潜在差距，但该理论通过强调高风险环境下的动态适应能力、从冲击中恢复的能力以及整合多层次要素构建系统性韧性，为项目组织在危机情境中保持核心功能、应对不可预测的逆境并实现持续演进提供了重要的理论视角和实践框架。

2.2 Project Management Strategies Responses to Supply Chain Crises
2.2 应对供应链危机的项目管理策略

Manufacturing companies widely adopt just-in-time (JIT) production and global procurement models, which effectively reduce inventory and procurement costs but also weaken the buffer capacity of the supply system, making companies more vulnerable to shocks in crisis situations (Natarajarathinam, Capar and Narayanan, 2009; Pettit, Fiksel and Croxton, 2010; Handfield, Graham, and Burns, 2020). This challenge is particularly pronounced in the emerging new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, as its key raw materials (such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel) exhibit significant geographical concentration, making them susceptible to market volatility, geopolitical risks, and logistics delays (Jones, Nguyen-Tien, and Elliott, 2023). Fluctuations in upstream resource supply can not only lead to production disruptions but also cause project delays, while the inherent ‘bullwhip effect’ in supply chains further amplifies volatility in cost and schedule control (Chen and Lee, 2012; Rahman et al., 2022). This compels project managers to transcend traditional efficiency-focused thinking and seek a new strategic framework that can accommodate uncertainty.
制造企业广泛采用准时制（JIT）生产和全球采购模式，有效降低了库存和采购成本，但也削弱了供应系统的缓冲能力，使企业在危机情况下更容易受到冲击（Natarajarathinam、Capar 和 Narayanan，2009；Pettit、Fiksel 和 Croxton，2010；Handfield、Graham 和 Burns，2020）。这一挑战在新兴的新能源汽车行业尤为突出，因为其关键原材料（如锂、钴和镍）具有显著的地域集中性，容易受到市场波动、地缘政治风险和物流延误的影响（Jones、Nguyen-Tien 和 Elliott，2023）。上游资源供应的波动不仅可能导致生产中断，还可能造成项目延期，而供应链中固有的“牛鞭效应”则进一步放大了成本和进度控制的波动性（Chen and Lee，2012；Rahman et al.，2022）。这迫使项目经理超越传统的效率至上的思维模式，寻求能够适应不确定性的全新战略框架。

2.2.1 Building Resilience for Project Delivery
2.2.1 构建项目交付的韧性

Supply chain resilience (SCRES) research provides a theoretical framework for addressing these challenges. SCRES emphasises a company's ability to maintain operational continuity and recover quickly in crisis situations (Jüttner and Maklan, 2011; Tukamuhabwa et al., 2015). Scholars generally categorise the strategic directions for resilience-building into robustness and agility (Wieland and Wallenburg, 2012). Additionally, some scholars have further noted that resilience capabilities must be customised according to a company's specific vulnerability patterns to maintain project performance while balancing costs and risk exposure, emphasising the dynamic balance between capabilities and risks (Pettit, Fiksel, and Croxton, 2010). This classification provides a theoretical foundation for analysing how NEV companies adopt multi-level strategies to manage supply chain crises while ensuring project costs, schedules, and quality.
供应链韧性（SCRES）研究为应对这些挑战提供了理论框架。SCRES 强调企业在危机情况下保持运营连续性和快速恢复的能力（Jüttner and Maklan，2011；Tukamuhabwa et al.，2015）。学者们通常将韧性建设的战略方向分为稳健性和敏捷性（Wieland and Wallenburg，2012）。此外，一些学者进一步指出，韧性能力必须根据企业特定的脆弱性模式进行定制，以在平衡成本和风险敞口的同时保持项目绩效，强调能力与风险之间的动态平衡（Pettit, Fiksel and Croxton，2010）。这种分类为分析新能源汽车企业如何采用多层次策略管理供应链危机，同时确保项目成本、进度和质量提供了理论基础。

2.2.2 Stability-oriented strategic response
2.2.2 以稳定为导向的战略应对

In the new energy vehicle industry, these two resilience-oriented approaches are reflected in a series of specific strategic deployments:
在新能源汽车行业，这两种韧性导向体现在一系列具体的战略部署中：

(1) Vertical Integration
（1）垂直整合

Vertical integration is one of the core measures adopted by new energy vehicle companies to enhance supply chain stability. By extending their operations upstream, companies gain control over raw material extraction, smelting, and the production of critical components, thereby mitigating the impact of external market fluctuations (Quan, Loon, and Sanderson, 2018; Wells, 2020). This strategy helps transform external supply uncertainties into controllable internal production and coordination issues. From a project management perspective, it effectively reduces procurement risks and enhances the predictability of costs and schedules. However, vertical integration may also lead to significant increases in capital investment and heightened organisational collaboration complexity, thereby weakening the company's ability to respond swiftly to market changes (Ersahin, Giannetti, and Huang, 2024).
垂直整合是新能源汽车企业提升供应链稳定性的核心举措之一。通过向上游延伸，企业能够掌控原材料开采、冶炼以及关键零部件的生产环节，从而降低外部市场波动的影响（Quan、Loon and Sanderson，2018；Wells，2020）。该策略有助于将外部供应的不确定性转化为可控的内部生产和协调问题。从项目管理的角度来看，它有效降低了采购风险，增强了成本和进度的可预测性。然而，垂直整合也可能导致资本投入大幅增加，组织协作复杂度增加，从而削弱企业快速响应市场变化的能力（Ersahin、Giannetti and Huang，2024）。

(2) Localization
（2）本地化

Localisation significantly reduces geographical distances, minimises cross-border transportation risks, and mitigates geopolitical uncertainties (Bednarski et al., 2025; PWC, 2024), thereby lowering the significant uncertainties caused by logistics delays in project schedules. This has become a consensus in highly globalised industries such as the new energy vehicle sector (Belhadi et al., 2021). Companies build factories in key sales regions to shorten logistics cycles and enhance supply stability (Kelly, 2025). From a project management perspective, the core value of localisation lies in optimising project schedules. As some scholars have pointed out, in a turbulent environment, shortening the end-to-end delivery cycle is crucial (Crum et al., 2011). However, localisation strategies may also expose companies to new regional vulnerabilities, such as insufficient local support capabilities and volatile operating environments (Shih, 2020).
本地化可以显著缩短地理距离，降低跨境运输风险，并缓解地缘政治不确定性（Bednarski et al., 2025；PWC, 2024），从而降低物流延误对项目进度造成的重大不确定性。这已成为新能源汽车等高度全球化行业的共识（Belhadi et al., 2021）。企业在关键销售区域建厂，以缩短物流周期并增强供应稳定性（Kelly, 2025）。从项目管理的角度来看，本地化的核心价值在于优化项目进度。正如一些学者指出的那样，在动荡的环境中，缩短端到端的交付周期至关重要（Crum et al., 2011）。然而，本地化战略也可能使企业面临新的区域脆弱性，例如本地支持能力不足和运营环境波动（Shih, 2020）。

(3) Inventory and Buffer Strategy
（3）库存与缓冲策略

The inventory and buffer strategy refers to the deliberate holding of strategic inventory at key nodes in the supply chain to decouple each link, absorb and mitigate the impact of sudden disruptions, and maintain operational continuity (Bode and Wagner, 2015). In the new energy vehicle industry, some companies adopt strategic inventory management for critical raw materials such as lithium salts, cobalt, and nickel to address supply chain disruptions or price volatility risks. However, increasing inventory leads to high capital tied up and warehousing costs (Crum et al., 2011). Stored materials may also lose value due to rapid technological advancements (Ivanov and Dolgui, 2021). For project management, this buffer reduces the direct impact of supply shortages on production schedules, granting teams valuable response time to effectively maintain project progress and cost stability.
库存与缓冲策略是指在供应链关键节点谨慎持有战略性库存，以解耦各个环节，吸收和缓解突发中断的影响，并保持运营连续性（Bode and Wagner，2015）。在新能源汽车行业，一些公司对锂盐、钴和镍等关键原材料采取战略性库存管理，以应对供应链中断或价格波动风险。然而，库存增加会导致资金占用和仓储成本增加（Crum et al.，2011）。由于技术的快速发展，库存材料也可能贬值（Ivanov and Dolgui，2021）。对于项目管理而言，这种缓冲可以减少供应短缺对生产计划的直接影响，为团队争取宝贵的响应时间，从而有效地保持项目进度和成本稳定。

(4) Circular Economy/Recycling Strategy
（4）循环经济/回收战略

The circular economy/recycling strategy reduces reliance on virgin mineral resources through material recycling, remanufacturing, and closed-loop supply chain models, serving as a critical resilience measure for new energy vehicle companies to address raw material shortages (Geissdoerfer et al., 2017). However, the implementation of this strategy faces challenges such as high energy consumption in the recycling process and inconsistent quality of recycled materials (Xu et al., 2020). Additionally, the quality stability and scalable supply capacity of recycled materials cannot match those of virgin materials, limiting their ability to provide immediate assurance for project delivery. Therefore, this strategy is more often viewed as a medium- to long-term resource security solution rather than a primary means of quickly addressing sudden supply chain disruptions.
循环经济/再利用战略通过材料回收、再制造和闭环供应链模式减少对原生矿产资源的依赖，成为新能源汽车企业应对原材料短缺的关键韧性措施（Geissdoerfer et al.，2017）。然而，该战略的实施面临着回收过程中能耗高、再生材料质量参差不齐等挑战（Xu et al.，2020）。此外，再生材料的质量稳定性和可扩展供应能力无法与原生材料相比，限制了其为项目交付提供即时保障的能力。因此，该战略更多地被视为一种中长期资源保障方案，而非快速应对突发性供应链中断的主要手段。

2.2.3 Agile-oriented strategic response
2.2.3 敏捷导向的战略响应

(1) Supply Chain Diversification
（1）供应链多元化

New energy vehicle companies reduce the risk of disruption from a single supplier by establishing partnerships with multiple suppliers (Ivanov and Dolgui, 2021). This strategy ensures that project teams can quickly activate alternative plans when any supply chain node is blocked. This strategy improves procurement flexibility and helps maintain project delivery schedules during supply chain disruptions. However, supply chain diversification may also increase management complexity and coordination costs, which may lead to a decline in response efficiency (Huang, Han and Macbeth, 2020).
新能源汽车企业通过与多家供应商建立合作伙伴关系来降低单一供应商中断的风险（Ivanov and Dolgui，2021）。该策略确保项目团队在供应链任何节点受阻时能够快速启动替代方案。该策略提高了采购灵活性，并有助于在供应链中断期间维持项目交付进度。然而，供应链多元化也可能增加管理复杂性和协调成本，从而导致响应效率下降（Huang, Han and Macbeth，2020）。

(2) Technology and Process Optimization Strategy
（2）技术与工艺优化策略

By enhancing material compatibility during the product design phase, companies can swiftly adapt to crises (Tang, 2006; Amico et al., 2023). For example, some new energy vehicle companies have switched from high-nickel ternary battery materials to lithium iron phosphate systems to reduce reliance on scarce nickel and cobalt resources (Karabelli et al., 2020). From a project management perspective, these measures provide a high level of change response capability, reducing the risk of project shutdowns caused by single-point material shortages. However, technology transitions often come with high R&D costs and lengthy adjustment cycles, making it difficult to fully mitigate supply chain risks in the short term (Paul and Saha, 2025).
企业通过在产品设计阶段提升材料兼容性，能够快速应对危机（Tang，2006；Amico 等，2023）。例如，一些新能源汽车企业已将高镍三元电池材料转换为磷酸铁锂体系，以减少对稀缺镍钴资源的依赖（Karabelli 等，2020）。从项目管理的角度来看，这些举措提供了较高的变更响应能力，降低了单点材料短缺导致项目停工的风险。然而，技术转型往往伴随着高昂的研发成本和漫长的调整周期，短期内难以完全化解供应链风险（Paul 和 Saha，2025）。

In summary, the project management strategies adopted by new energy vehicle companies to address supply chain crises primarily fall into two categories: one category focuses on stability-oriented strategies (such as vertical integration, localisation, inventory buffering, and recycling), aimed at enhancing the controllability and continuity of supply; the other category focuses on agility-oriented strategies (such as supply chain diversification and technological optimisation), emphasising rapid adjustment and flexible response. Both types of strategies have their own advantages and limitations in mitigating supply risks and ensuring cost and schedule performance. Companies typically need to combine these strategies based on specific circumstances to balance resilience and efficiency in complex environments.
综上所述，新能源汽车企业应对供应链危机的项目管理策略主要分为两类：一类侧重于稳定性策略（例如垂直整合、本地化、库存缓冲、回收利用等），旨在增强供应的可控性和连续性；另一类侧重于敏捷性策略（例如供应链多元化、技术优化等），强调快速调整和灵活响应。两种策略在降低供应风险、确保成本和进度绩效方面各有优势和局限性。企业通常需要根据具体情况组合使用这些策略，以在复杂环境中平衡韧性和效率。

2.3 Research Gap
2.3 研究差距

Project crisis management is typically explored from a high-level theoretical perspective, including agile project management, risk and uncertainty management, and project resilience, with these theories emphasizing the importance of maintaining adaptability and responsiveness in the face of disruptions. At the operational level, supply chain resilience strategies, such as vertical integration and supplier diversification, have been widely explored to mitigate supply risks. However, existing research primarily focuses on strategic-level supply chain design or general project management frameworks, lacking empirical studies that link specific project management practices to supply chain crisis responses in emerging industries such as new energy vehicles (NEVs). Additionally, comparative quantitative analyses of how leading NEV companies like Tesla and BYD translate these theoretical methods into actual project delivery under raw material shortages remain scarce. This gap limits the understanding of the effectiveness and contextual applicability of different strategies in ensuring cost, schedule, and quality performance. This study aims to clarify the relationship between strategic choices and project success in complex environments by empirically investigating how different supply chain resilience strategies translate into quantifiable project management outcomes.
项目危机管理通常从高层次的理论视角进行探索，包括敏捷项目管理、风险与不确定性管理以及项目韧性，这些理论强调在面临突发事件时保持适应性和响应能力的重要性。在运营层面，供应链韧性策略（例如垂直整合和供应商多元化）已被广泛探索，以降低供应风险。然而，现有研究主要侧重于战略层面的供应链设计或通用的项目管理框架，缺乏将具体项目管理实践与新能源汽车等新兴行业的供应链危机应对相结合的实证研究。此外，对于特斯拉和比亚迪等领先的新能源汽车公司如何在原材料短缺的情况下将这些理论方法转化为实际项目交付的比较定量分析仍然很少。这一差距限制了人们对不同策略在确保成本、进度和质量绩效方面的有效性及其具体情境适用性的理解 。本研究旨在通过实证研究不同的供应链韧性策略如何转化为可量化的项目管理成果，阐明复杂环境下战略选择与项目成功之间的关系。

3. Theoretical Framework and Hypothesis Development
3. 理论框架与假设发展

3.1 Theoretical Classification of Strategic Responses
3.1 战略应对的理论分类

Based on a comprehensive understanding of the literature review, the six project management strategies can be classified according to three core project theory frameworks.
基于对文献综述的全面了解，六种项目管理策略可以根据三个核心项目理论框架进行分类。

Vertical integration and localization strategies primarily align with project resilience theory. This is because resilience theory emphasizes achieving robust responses through enhancing operational continuity, dynamically adapting to environmental changes, and developing systematic adaptive capabilities (Naderpajouh et al., 2023). Vertical integration effectively transforms external uncertainties into internally controllable factors by internalizing critical supply chain segments (Wells, 2020), which precisely reflects the core principles of system robustness and adaptive resilience. Similarly, localization reduces supply chain vulnerabilities arising from geographical distance and geopolitical factors, strengthening enterprise operational stability (Bednarski et al., 2025), thereby embodying the adaptability and continuous delivery capabilities emphasized by resilience theory.
垂直整合和本地化战略主要与项目韧性理论相契合。这是因为韧性理论强调通过增强运营连续性、动态适应环境变化以及发展系统性自适应能力来实现稳健响应（Naderpajouh et al., 2023）。垂直整合通过将关键供应链环节内部化，有效地将外部不确定性转化为内部可控因素（Wells, 2020），这恰恰体现了系统稳健性和自适应韧性的核心原则。同样，本地化可以降低因地理距离和地缘政治因素而产生的供应链脆弱性，增强企业运营稳定性（Bednarski et al., 2025），从而体现韧性理论所强调的适应性和持续交付能力。

Inventory and buffer strategies and circular economy/recycling strategies primarily correspond to risk and uncertainty management theory. This theoretical framework focuses on comprehensively managing risks and uncertainties, achieving project robustness through balancing risk mitigation with opportunity development (Ward & Chapman, 2003). Specifically, inventory buffer strategies proactively reduce the risk of raw material supply disruptions through strategic inventory reserves, enhancing enterprises' capacity to respond to unexpected events, although potentially incurring certain capital costs and inventory expenses (Bode & Wagner, 2015). Circular economy strategies actively manage resource shortage risks through material recycling and remanufacturing, reconfiguring supply chain structures, creating new value opportunities, and enhancing long-term resource security (Xu et al., 2020).
库存与缓冲策略以及循环经济/回收利用策略主要对应风险与不确定性管理理论。该理论框架注重综合管理风险与不确定性，通过平衡风险规避与机会开发来实现项目稳健性（Ward & Chapman，2003）。具体而言，库存缓冲策略通过战略性库存储备主动降低原材料供应中断的风险，增强企业应对突发事件的能力，尽管这可能会产生一定的资本成本和库存费用（Bode & Wagner，2015）。循环经济策略则通过材料回收再制造、重构供应链结构、创造新的价值机会以及增强长期资源安全来主动管理资源短缺风险（Xu et al.，2020）。

Supply chain diversification and technology and process optimization strategies primarily correspond to agile project management theory. Agile theory emphasizes organizational adaptability, iterative development, and rapid response capabilities to change (Conforto et al., 2014). Supply chain diversification enables enterprises to respond quickly to supply chain disruptions by establishing multiple supply channels (Ivanov & Dolgui, 2021), a characteristic that fully embodies the core concept of rapid response in agile management. Technology and process optimization strategies, such as battery technology upgrades in the new energy vehicle industry, reflect agile theory's iterative development and rapid adaptation to market changes (Amico et al., 2023).
供应链多元化、技术和流程优化策略主要对应敏捷项目管理理论。敏捷理论强调组织的适应性、迭代开发和对变化的快速响应能力（Conforto 等，2014）。供应链多元化使企业能够通过建立多种供应渠道快速响应供应链中断（Ivanov & Dolgui，2021），充分体现了敏捷管理快速响应的核心理念。技术和流程优化策略，例如新能源汽车行业的电池技术升级，体现了敏捷理论的迭代开发和对市场变化的快速适应（Amico 等，2023）。

Table. 1 Project Management Strategy and Crisis Strategy Comparison Table
表 1 项目管理策略与危机策略对比表

While the above classification may rely solely on literature review descriptions and theoretical knowledge understanding, lacking sufficient empirical support, it nevertheless provides a preliminary analytical framework for understanding the inherent connections and structural logic between project management theories and strategies, establishing the necessary theoretical foundation and directional guidance for subsequent empirical research based on specific projects.
上述分类虽然可能仅仅依赖于文献综述描述和理论知识理解，缺乏足够的实证支持，但仍然为理解项目管理理论与策略之间的内在联系和结构逻辑提供了一个初步的分析框架，为后续基于具体项目的实证研究奠定了必要的理论基础和方向性指导。

3.2 Conceptual Framework: Strategic Responses and Project Delivery Performance
3.2 概念框架：战略响应和项目交付绩效

3.2.1 Resilience-Oriented Strategies on Project Delivery Performance
3.2.1 以韧性为导向的项目交付绩效策略

Vertical integration strategy transforms external uncertainties into internally controllable production coordination issues by internalizing key supply chain segments, significantly reducing procurement risks, and enhancing the predictability of costs and schedules (Quan et al., 2018; Wells, 2020). This strategy demonstrates strong correlations with cost performance and operational efficiency performance, particularly excelling in long-term cost control and resource coordination management; however, due to increased organizational complexity, it may show relatively weak correlation with production performance. Localization strategy significantly reduces uncertainties caused by logistics delays, thereby optimizing project schedule performance (Bednarski et al., 2025). Localization strategy shows strong correlation with operational efficiency performance, especially in shortening end-to-end delivery cycles (Crum et al., 2011); however, its performance in cost performance may be moderately correlated, as local operations reduce logistics costs but may increase fixed asset investment and regional operational costs; in production performance, it shows weak correlation since local facilities may struggle to achieve large-scale production in the short term. Overall, among the impact mechanisms of resilience-oriented strategies on project delivery performance, the most significant positive correlation is manifested in the cost performance dimension.
垂直整合战略通过将关键供应链环节内部化，将外部不确定性转化为内部可控的生产协调问题，显著降低采购风险， 增强成本和进度的可预测性（Quan 等，2018；Wells，2020）。该战略与成本绩效和运营效率绩效表现出很强的相关性，尤其在长期成本控制和资源协调管理方面表现优异；然而，由于组织复杂度的增加，其与生产绩效的相关性可能相对较弱。本地化战略显著降低了物流延迟带来的不确定性，从而优化了项目进度绩效（Bednarski 等，2025）。本地化战略与运营效率绩效表现出很强的相关性，尤其是在缩短端到端交付周期方面（Crum 等，2011）；然而，其在成本绩效方面的表现可能具有中等相关性，因为本地运营降低了物流成本，但可能会增加固定资产投资和区域运营成本；在生产绩效方面，其相关性较弱，因为本地工厂可能难以在短期内实现规模化生产。总体来看，韧性导向策略对项目交付绩效的影响机制中，最显著的正相关关系体现在成本绩效维度。

3.2.2 Risk and Uncertainty Management-Oriented Strategies on Project Delivery Performance
3.2.2 以风险和不确定性管理为导向的项目交付绩效策略

Inventory buffer strategy effectively reduces risks from sudden supply chain disruptions through strategic inventory reserves, thereby maintaining operational continuity (Bode & Wagner, 2015). This strategy demonstrates strong correlation in the operational efficiency performance dimension, particularly excelling when responding to supply chain emergencies, but high inventory-induced capital occupation makes its correlation with cost performance relatively weak; in production performance, it shows moderate correlation as inventory buffers can ensure stable raw material supply, thereby maintaining production continuity to some extent, but will not significantly increase actual capacity. The circular economy strategy reduces dependence on virgin minerals through recycling and reuse to alleviate resource shortage risks (Geissdoerfer et al., 2017). While its long-term correlation with cost performance may be strong, this link is often weakened in the short term by high implementation costs. In contrast, the strategy has a significantly strong correlation with operational efficiency, as it enables more effective material flow management and waste reduction. However, this correlation is constrained by the scale and stability limitations of recycled material supply (Xu et al., 2020). Overall, risk and uncertainty management-oriented strategies demonstrate the strongest correlation in the operational efficiency performance dimension.
库存缓冲策略通过战略性库存储备有效降低供应链突发中断风险，从而保持运营连续性（Bode & Wagner，2015）。该策略在运营效率绩效维度上表现出强相关性，尤其在应对供应链突发事件时表现优异，但库存带来的高资金占用使其与成本绩效的相关性相对较弱；在生产绩效方面，该策略表现出中等相关性，因为库存缓冲可以确保稳定的原材料供应，从而在一定程度上维持生产的连续性，但不会显著提升实际产能。循环经济策略通过回收再利用减少对原生矿的依赖，从而缓解资源短缺风险（Geissdoerfer et al.，2017）。虽然其与成本绩效的长期相关性可能很强，但这种关联性往往会在短期内因高昂的实施成本而减弱。相比之下，该策略与运营效率具有显著的强相关性，因为它能够更有效地管理物料流并减少浪费。然而，这种相关性受到再生材料供应规模和稳定性的限制（Xu et al.，2020）。 总体而言，以风险和不确定性管理为导向的策略在运营效率绩效维度上表现出最强的相关性。

3.2.3 Agile Management-Oriented Strategies on Project Delivery Performance
3.2.3 敏捷管理导向的项目交付绩效策略

Supply chain diversification strategy enhances procurement flexibility by collaborating with multiple suppliers to quickly activate alternative solutions (Ivanov & Dolgui, 2021). This strategy shows strong correlation with the production performance dimension, particularly in ensuring continuity of project delivery plans; however, increased management complexity makes its correlation with cost performance relatively weak, while showing moderate correlation with operational efficiency performance, as multi-supplier systems can quickly respond to supply fluctuations but also increase supply chain coordination and communication costs. Technology and process optimization strategy provides high change responsiveness through material compatibility optimization in the product design phase (Tang, 2006; Amico et al., 2023). It shows strong correlation in the production performance dimension as technological optimization directly improves production continuity and output capacity; however, high R&D investment makes its correlation with cost performance relatively weak, while operational efficiency performance shows moderate correlation since technological changes typically require transition periods and adaptive adjustments, potentially reducing operational efficiency in the short term. Overall, agile-oriented strategies demonstrate the strongest correlation with project delivery performance in the production performance dimension.
供应链多元化战略通过与多家供应商合作快速启动替代解决方案，增强了采购灵活性（Ivanov & Dolgui，2021）。该战略与生产绩效维度表现出很强的相关性，尤其是在确保项目交付计划的连续性方面；然而，管理复杂性的增加使其与成本绩效的相关性相对较弱，而与运营效率绩效的相关性则呈中等程度，因为多供应商系统可以快速响应供应波动，但也增加了供应链协调和沟通成本。技术和工艺优化战略通过在产品设计阶段进行材料兼容性优化，提供了较高的变更响应能力（Tang，2006；Amico 等，2023）。该战略在生产绩效维度表现出很强的相关性，因为技术优化直接提高了生产的连续性和产出能力；然而，高额的研发投入使其与成本绩效的相关性相对较弱，而运营效率绩效的相关性则呈中等程度，因为技术变革通常需要过渡期和适应性调整，这可能会在短期内降低运营效率。总体而言，敏捷导向战略在生产绩效维度上与项目交付绩效的相关性最高。

3.3 Hypothesis
3.3 假设

Based on the above analysis, this study proposes the following three hypotheses：
基于以上分析，本研究提出以下三个假设 ：

H1: The vertical integration strategy is positively correlated with cost performance, and this association is expected to be relatively strong.
H1：垂直一体化战略与成本绩效呈正相关，并且预计这种关联相对较强。

H2: The circular economy strategy is expected to show a relatively strong positive correlation with operational efficiency performance.
H2：循环经济战略预计与运营效率绩效呈现较强的正相关性。

H3: The technology and process optimization strategy are hypothesized to be positively correlated with production performance.
H3：假设技术和工艺优化策略与生产绩效呈正相关。

These three hypotheses provide specific analytical directions and theoretical testing frameworks for subsequent empirical research, helping to further clarify the impact pathways and mechanisms of project management strategies and theoretical orientations on project delivery performance.
这三个假设为后续的实证研究提供了具体的分析方向和理论检验框架，有助于进一步明确项目管理策略和理论取向对项目交付绩效的影响路径与机制。

4. Research Methodology
4. 研究方法

This section outlines the research methodology used to study how Tesla and BYD’s strategic responses to supply chain disruptions affect their project costs and delivery performance. First, this section introduces the use of positivist research philosophy, deductive methods, and quantitative research strategies, all of which are choices consistent with the structured and measurable nature of the research topic. This section then details the data collection process, which relies on secondary data from official company sources such as annual reports and investor presentations from 2020 to 2024. This section explains how key variables such as production costs, output, and inventory turnover are derived. In addition, this section introduces data analysis methods including descriptive statistics and Pearson correlation analysis to show how to explore the relationship between strategic choices and project outcomes. Finally, this section discusses the ethical considerations involved in using public data, focusing on transparency, data accuracy, and critical awareness of corporate information disclosure.
本节概述了用于研究特斯拉和比亚迪应对供应链中断的战略响应如何影响其项目成本和交付绩效的研究方法。首先，本节介绍了实证研究理念、演绎法和定量研究策略的使用，所有这些选择都与研究主题的结构化和可衡量性相一致。然后，本节详细介绍了数据收集过程，该过程依赖于来自公司官方来源（例如2020年至2024年的年度报告和投资者演示）的二手数据。本节解释了如何得出生产成本、产量和库存周转率等关键变量。此外，本节还介绍了包括描述性统计和皮尔逊相关分析在内的数据分析方法，以展示如何探索战略选择与项目结果之间的关系。最后，本节讨论了使用公共数据所涉及的伦理考量，重点关注透明度、数据准确性以及对企业信息披露的批判性认识。

4.1 Research Design
4.1 研究设计

4.1.1 Research Philosophy – Positivist
4.1.1 研究哲学 —— 实证主义

This study adopts a positivist philosophical stance, based on the belief that reality exists objectively and can be measured and explained through systematic observation and empirical data. Positivism is widely used in business and engineering management research, especially in exploring quantifiable causal relationships between variables (Remenyi et al., 1998). The focus of this study is how the strategic response behaviors taken by two automobile manufacturers, Tesla and BYD, during the global supply chain disruption crisis affect their project delivery performance and unit production cost changes. These can be structured and quantified through public data and company disclosure reports. In the context of the highly industrialized automobile industry with the goal of precise delivery, the positivist approach can maximize the objectivity, universality and repeatability of the research (Easterby-Smith et al., 2015).
本研究采取实证主义的哲学立场，认为现实客观存在，可以通过系统观察和经验数据进行衡量和解释。实证主义在商业和工程管理研究中被广泛应用，尤其擅长探索变量之间可量化的因果关系 （Remenyi 等，1998）。本研究的重点是特斯拉和比亚迪两家汽车制造商在全球供应链中断危机期间采取的战略应对行为如何影响其项目交付绩效和单位生产成本的变化。这些可以通过公开数据和公司披露报告进行结构化和量化。在高度工业化的汽车行业背景下，以精准交付为目标，实证主义方法可以最大限度地提高研究的客观性、普遍性和可重复性（Easterby-Smith 等，2015）。

4.1.2 Research Approach – Deductive
4.1.2 研究方法 —— 演绎法

This study adopts the philosophical position of Positivist and is based on the belief that reality exists objectively and can be measured and explained through systematic observation and empirical data. Psitivism is widely used in business and engineering management research, especially in the exploration of quantifiable causal relationships between variables (Bryman, 2016). The core focus of this study is how the strategic response behavior adopted by Tesla and BYD, two automobile manufacturers, during the global supply chain disruption crisis, affects their project delivery performance, especially in cost control and progress compliance. This research issue emphasizes, such as cost deviation, delivery delay and punctuality of product launch (the systemic connection between strategic variables and observable performance indicators), the data involved include the percentage of cost deviation, the number of days of delivery delay, and the delay in the launch of new product projects, etc., which can be through public data and the company Disclosure report for structured quantitative analysis. In the context of the highly industrialized automotive industry with the goal of precise delivery, the psitivism method can maximize the objectivity, universality and repeatability of research (Johnson & Duberle Y, 2000).
本研究采取实证主义的哲学立场，基于以下信念：现实客观存在，并且可以通过系统观察和经验数据进行测量和解释。实证主义广泛应用于商业和工程管理研究中，尤其擅长探索变量之间可量化的因果关系（Bryman，2016）。本研究的核心关注点在于特斯拉和比亚迪两家汽车制造商在全球供应链中断危机期间采取的战略应对行为如何影响其项目交付绩效，尤其是在成本控制和进度合规性方面。本研究议题强调成本偏差、交付延迟和产品上市准时性（战略变量与可观察绩效指标之间的系统性联系），所涉及的数据包括成本偏差百分比、交付延迟天数以及新产品项目上市延迟等，可以通过公开数据和公司披露报告进行结构化的定量分析。在高度工业化的汽车行业、以精准交付为目标的背景下，实证研究方法可以最大限度地提高研究的客观性、普遍性和可重复性（Johnson & Duberle Y，2000）。

4.1.3 Research Strategy – Quantitative
4.1.3 研究策略 —— 定量

Quantitative research involves the collection and statistical analysis of numerical data to test hypotheses and identify relationships between variables. It is particularly effective in evaluating measurable results and cross-entity comparisons (Creswell & Creswell, 2017). Automotive manufacturing projects are often highly planned and system-integrated, so issues such as project delays and cost overruns are of great sensitivity and concern in the industry (Golgeci & Ponomarov, 2013). Given that the core variables and questions of the study are measurable and comparable project performance indicators, this study adopts a quantitative research strategy. This approach emphasizes the collection, analysis and statistical inference of structured data, which helps to determine how specific project strategies quantitatively affect performance indicators such as cost changes, output and inventory turnover.Given the research question, which focuses on the impact of crisis response strategies on delivery performance, quantitative methods are the most appropriate mechanism to reveal empirical patterns. Unlike qualitative case studies, which are explanatory and context-limited, quantitative methods allow for structured comparisons and draw conclusions that are more generalizable across projects.
定量研究涉及收集和统计分析数值数据，以检验假设并识别变量之间的关系。它在评估可衡量结果和跨实体比较方面尤其有效（Creswell & Creswell，2017）。汽车制造项目通常经过精心规划且系统集成，因此项目延期和成本超支等问题在业内非常敏感且备受关注（Golgeci & Ponomarov，2013）。鉴于本研究的核心变量和问题是可衡量且可比较的项目绩效指标，本研究采用了定量研究策略。这种方法强调结构化数据的收集、分析和统计推断，这有助于确定特定项目策略如何定量地影响成本变化、产出和库存周转率等绩效指标。鉴于本研究关注的是危机应对策略对交付绩效的影响，定量方法是揭示实证模式的最合适机制。与解释性和背景有限的定性案例研究不同，定量方法允许进行结构化比较并得出在项目之间更具普遍性的结论。

4.2 Data Collection
4.2 数据收集

4.2.1 Data Sources and Case Selection
4.2.1 数据来源与案例选择

This study employs secondary data analysis utilizing publicly available corporate documents from BYD and Tesla. The primary data sources comprise quarterly earnings reports, annual reports, investor presentations, and official corporate announcements published between 2020-2024. For Tesla, the main collected source data includes new energy vehicle production volume, delivery volume, total operating costs, automotive operating costs, and inventory figures, which through simple calculations yielded inventory turnover days and average cost per vehicle. For BYD, the main collected source data includes new energy vehicle production volume, sales volume, total operating costs, automotive business proportion, and inventory turnover days, which through simple calculations yielded the average cost per vehicle data.
本研究采用二手数据分析法，利用了比亚迪和特斯拉两家公司的公开文件。一手数据来源包括2020年至2024年期间发布的季度财报、年度报告、投资者推介会和公司官方公告。特斯拉的主要数据包括新能源汽车产量、交付量、总运营成本、汽车运营成本和库存数据，通过简单计算得出库存周转天数和平均单车成本。比亚迪的主要数据包括新能源汽车产量、销量、总运营成本、汽车业务占比和库存周转天数，通过简单计算得出平均单车成本数据。

Table. 2
表 2

The selection of BYD and Tesla is strategically justified by their representative positions in the global NEV industry. Tesla, as the American NEV market leader, pioneered the premium electric vehicle segment and achieved a market capitalization exceeding $800 billion by 2021, demonstrating Western innovation-driven project management approaches (Chen & Perez, 2018). BYD, representing Chinese NEV manufacturers, became the world's second-largest NEV producer by 2022, exemplifying cost-effective manufacturing strategies and vertical integration, particularly in battery technology (Wang et al., 2021). Their contrasting yet successful adaptive strategies during supply chain disruptions provide comparative insights into project management resilience. This research selects a total of 12 major battery production expansion projects and plans from both companies during 2020-2024, which were used to respond to and mitigate the pressure of battery material shortages caused by supply chain crises.
选择比亚迪和特斯拉具有战略意义，因为它们在全球新能源汽车行业的代表地位。特斯拉作为美国新能源汽车市场的领导者，开创了高端电动汽车领域，到 2021 年市值超过 8000 亿美元，展示了西方创新驱动的项目管理方法 (Chen & Perez, 2018)。代表中国新能源汽车制造商的比亚迪到 2022 年成为全球第二大新能源汽车生产商，体现了具有成本效益的制造战略和垂直整合，尤其是在电池技术领域 (Wang et al., 2021)。他们在供应链中断期间对比鲜明但又成功的适应性策略为项目管理的弹性提供了比较见解。本研究选取了两家公司在 2020 年至 2024 年期间共 12 个主要电池生产扩建项目和计划，用于应对和缓解供应链危机造成的电池材料短缺压力。

4.2.2 Variable Design and Indicator Rationale
4.2.2 变量设计和指标原理

To comprehensively assess the impact of project management strategies on "project delivery performance" amidst battery raw material shortages and related material constraints, this study selects strategy type (whether a specific strategy is adopted), the total number of strategies implemented, and the type of project management theory applied (frequency of applying project management theories) as independent variables. Concurrently, three key dependent variables are chosen, with their rates of change serving as observation indicators, aiming to capture enterprises' dynamic responses and performance fluctuations resulting from project management strategy adjustments, rather than merely absolute values. Specifically, a year-on-year semi-annual change rate (i.e., comparing each six-month period to the same period in the previous year) is adopted to reduce the influence of seasonality and external market cycles, while better reflecting the true net effect of internal strategic adjustments. This approach aligns with common performance tracking practices in operations and finance, offering a more normalized and comparable basis for performance analysis. The change rate is calculated as:
为了全面评估在电池原材料短缺及相关物料约束条件下，项目管理策略对“项目交付绩效”的影响，本研究选取策略类型（是否采用具体策略）、实施策略总数以及应用的项目管理理论类型（应用项目管理理论的频率）作为自变量， 并选取三个关键因变量，以其变化率作为观测指标，旨在捕捉企业因项目管理策略调整而产生的动态响应和绩效波动，而非仅仅采用绝对值。具体而言，采用同比半年变化率（即每半年与上年同期进行比较），以减少季节性和外部市场周期的影响，同时更好地反映内部战略调整的真实净效应。这种方法与运营和财务领域常见的绩效跟踪做法相一致，为绩效分析提供了更规范、更具可比性的依据。变化率的计算公式为：

4.3 Data Analysis Methods
4.3 数据分析方法

4.3.1 Observation Design and Temporal Decay Model
4.3.1 观测设计和时间衰减模型

Compared to selecting individual projects as observation units, choosing six-month time periods as observation samples can, to some extent, reduce inter-project interference while better reflecting the continuity and synergy of project impacts. This study selects 10 observation samples each from BYD and Tesla spanning 2020-2024, totaling 20 observation samples. According to the UK government's MSP methodology, the primary evaluation period for projects is 6-18 months post-completion (Cabinet Office, 2011). Serra & Kunc (2015)'s empirical research, based on tracking analysis of 137 projects, found that 78% of projects achieved over 80% of expected benefits within 12 months of completion, with 89% reaching benefit stabilization within 18 months. Therefore, defining project impact duration as 18 months, this study adopts an exponential decay model to quantify the temporal effects of project strategy implementation, based on the diminishing returns theory in project management. In project management, diminishing returns are most modeled indirectly through objective functions, where non-linear cost functions are associated with variable activity durations in project environments, and these diminishing returns effect is often a primary source of non-linearity in cost functions (Deckro et al., 2002). Based on this theoretical foundation, this study establishes that project strategy implementation impact decays exponentially over an 18-month cycle: impact coefficient of 1.0 at 6 months, decaying to 0.5 at 12 months, and further decaying to 0.25 at 18 months, reflecting the natural attenuation characteristics of strategy implementation effects over time in project management practice.
相比于选择单个项目作为观测单位，选取 6 个月的时间段作为观测样本，能够在一定程度上减少项目间的干扰，同时更能体现项目影响的连续性和协同性。本研究选取了比亚迪和特斯拉各 10 个观测样本，时间跨度为 2020-2024 年，共计 20 个观测样本。根据英国政府的 MSP 方法论，项目的主要评估期为完成后 6-18 个月（Cabinet Office，2011）。Serra & Kunc（2015）基于对 137 个项目的跟踪分析的实证研究发现，78%的项目在完成后 12 个月内实现了 80%以上的预期效益，89%的项目在 18 个月内效益达到稳定。因此，本研究将项目影响时长定义为 18 个月，并基于项目管理中的收益递减理论，采用指数衰减模型来量化项目战略实施的时间效应。在项目管理中，收益递减效应通常通过目标函数间接建模，而非线性成本函数与项目环境中可变的活动工期相关，这些收益递减效应往往是成本函数非线性的主要来源（Deckro 等，2002）。基于此理论基础，本研究发现，项目战略实施的影响在 18 个月的周期内呈指数衰减：6 个月时影响系数为 1.0，12 个月时衰减至 0.5，18 个月时进一步衰减至 0.25，这反映了项目管理实践中战略实施效果随时间自然衰减的特性。

4.3.2 Descriptive Statistical Framework
4.3.2 描述性统计框架

The analytical approach of this study adopts a progressive structure, beginning with comprehensive descriptive analysis of the twelve selected projects. This preliminary examination includes documenting specific strategies employed by each project and implementation timing, providing essential context for understanding how the six identified strategies were deployed across different periods and market conditions. Using six-month periods as observation samples, the study summarizes project quantities, strategy adoption situations, total strategy implementation counts, and project management theory applications within each half-year period. Following the mentioned decay model, independent variables are quantified by cumulatively counting the weighted implementation intensity of each strategy within the 18-month impact period, thereby establishing quantitative relationships between strategy implementation and performance outcomes.
本研究采用递进式分析方法，首先对选定的 12 个项目进行全面的描述性分析。初步考察包括记录每个项目的具体策略及其实施时间，为理解六项已识别策略在不同时期和市场条件下的部署情况提供必要的背景信息。研究以六个月为观察样本，总结每半年内的项目数量、策略采用情况、策略实施总数以及项目管理理论的应用情况。遵循前述衰减模型，通过累计计算 18 个月影响期内各策略的加权实施强度来量化自变量，从而建立策略实施与绩效结果之间的量化关系。

Descriptive statistical analysis forms the foundational framework for understanding variable characteristics and distributions. As Field (2024) emphasizes, descriptive statistics provide the crucial first step in any quantitative analysis, revealing patterns that inform subsequent analytical decisions. This analytical approach serves multiple purposes in this study: first, identifying which strategies were most frequently adopted during the observation period to understand corporate strategic preferences during supply chain crises; second, understanding the distribution characteristics of performance outcomes to provide a data foundation for subsequent correlation analysis; third, revealing preliminary patterns in strategy implementation behavior. Specifically, descriptive analysis encompasses measures of central tendency (mean, median, mode) for all continuous variables, including strategy implementation frequencies and performance metrics; dispersion measures (standard deviation, range) to show variability in strategy adoption and outcomes; and frequency distributions for categorical strategy variables, revealing the most adopted approaches. These analyses are particularly valuable for identifying the predominance of certain strategy types, such as determining whether vertical integration or supplier diversification was the most frequently adopted approach during the crisis period.
描述性统计分析构成了理解变量特征和分布的基础框架。正如 Field（2024）所强调的，描述性统计是任何定量分析中至关重要的第一步，它揭示的模式可为后续的分析决策提供参考。本研究中，这种分析方法有多种用途：首先，确定观察期内最常采用的策略，以了解企业在供应链危机期间的战略偏好；其次，了解绩效结果的分布特征，为后续的相关性分析提供数据基础；第三，揭示战略实施行为的初步模式。具体而言，描述性分析涵盖所有连续变量的集中趋势（均值、中位数、众数）测量，包括战略实施频率和绩效指标；离散度测量（标准差、极差），以显示战略采用和结果的变异性；以及分类战略变量的频率分布，以揭示最常采用的方法。 这些分析对于识别某些战略类型的主导地位尤其有价值，例如确定垂直整合或供应商多元化是否是危机期间最常采用的方法。

4.3.3 Correlation Analysis Approach
4.3.3 相关性分析方法

Building upon descriptive analysis, this study further employs Pearson correlation analysis to examine linear relationships between strategy implementation and performance metrics. Despite sample size limitations, correlation analysis remains valuable for exploratory research identifying potential associations (Cohen et al., 2018). As Schober et al. (2018) note, correlation coefficients provide effect size estimates that are independent of sample size, making them particularly useful for preliminary investigations. The correlation analysis explores relationships across three key dimensions: first, the relationship between overall strategy diversity and aggregate performance improvements to understand the overall effects of strategy combinations; second, associations between individual strategy types and specific outcomes (cost reduction, production volume enhancement, inventory turnover improvement) to identify which strategies have the strongest associations with particular performance metrics; third, the effects of strategy combinations on performance metrics to explore whether certain strategy combinations produce enhanced results. Through this multi-level correlation analysis, the study aims to identify which strategies demonstrate the strongest associations with performance improvements and determine whether certain strategy combinations produce synergistic effects. Given the sample size limitation of 20 observations, research results are interpreted as exploratory trends rather than confirmatory findings. Correlation strengths are classified following Cohen's (1988) guidelines: small effect (r=0.10-0.29), medium effect (r=0.30-0.49), large effect (r≥0.50). The study fully acknowledges that correlation does not imply causation, and the limited sample size restricts the generalizability of results. However, the exploratory nature of this research makes correlation analysis appropriate for identifying patterns worthy of further investigation in larger-scale studies. This methodological choice reflects realistic considerations for theory building under resource constraints, laying the foundation for subsequent larger-scale confirmatory research.
在描述性分析的基础上，本研究进一步运用皮尔逊相关分析法，考察战略实施与绩效指标之间的线性关系。尽管样本量有限，相关性分析对于探索性研究识别潜在关联仍然具有重要价值（Cohen 等，2018）。正如 Schober 等（2018）所指出的，相关系数提供的效应量估计值与样本量无关，因此对于初步研究尤为有用。相关性分析探讨三个关键维度之间的关系：首先，整体战略多样性与总体绩效改进之间的关系，以了解战略组合的整体效应；其次，单个战略类型与特定结果（成本降低、产量提升、库存周转率提高）之间的关联，以确定哪些战略与特定绩效指标的关联性最强；第三，战略组合对绩效指标的影响，以探究某些战略组合是否能够产生更佳的绩效。通过这种多层次的相关性分析，本研究旨在识别哪些战略与绩效改进的关联性最强，并确定某些战略组合是否能够产生协同效应。由于样本量限制为 20 个观察值，研究结果被解释为探索性趋势，而不是确认性发现。 相关性强度按照 Cohen（1988）的指导原则进行分类：小效应（r=0.10-0.29）、中等效应（r=0.30-0.49）、大效应（r≥0.50）。本研究充分认识到相关性并不意味着因果关系，有限的样本量也限制了结果的普遍性。然而，由于本研究的探索性，相关性分析非常适合用于识别值得在更大规模研究中进一步探究的模式。这种方法论选择体现了在资源受限的情况下构建理论的现实考虑，为后续更大规模的验证性研究奠定了基础。

4.3.4 Analytical Software Justification
4.3.4 分析软件论证

Regarding analytical tool selection, this study employs SPSS for statistical analysis based on its multiple methodological advantages in small sample analysis. First, SPSS's comprehensive descriptive statistics modules provide automated assumption checking crucial for small sample analysis (George & Mallery, 2019). Second, SPSS offers robust correlation procedures with integrated missing data handling and bootstrap options when parametric assumptions are violated (Field, 2024). Third, its visualization capabilities facilitate clear presentation of complex relationships through customizable scatterplots and correlation matrices. Finally, SPSS's widespread adoption in business research ensures reproducibility and peer verification (Pallant, 2020), which is significant for establishing the credibility of research findings.
在分析工具选择方面，本研究基于 SPSS 在小样本分析中的诸多方法论优势，选择 SPSS 进行统计分析。首先，SPSS 全面的描述性统计模块提供了对小样本分析至关重要的自动化假设检验功能 (George & Mallery, 2019)。其次，SPSS 提供了稳健的相关分析程序，并集成了缺失数据处理和引导程序选项，以便在参数假设不成立时进行处理 (Field, 2024)。第三，SPSS 的可视化功能可通过可自定义的散点图和相关矩阵清晰地呈现复杂的关系。最后，SPSS 在商业研究中的广泛应用确保了可重复性和同行验证 (Pallant, 2020)，这对于建立研究结果的可信度至关重要。

4.4 Ethical Consideration
4.4 伦理考虑

This research exclusively utilizes publicly available secondary data from corporate reports and regulatory filings, substantially simplifying ethical requirements while maintaining rigorous standards. As Tripathy (2013) notes, "research using public domain corporate data eliminates traditional consent requirements while introducing obligations for accurate representation." The study adheres to established ethical guidelines for secondary data analysis (BERA, 2018), ensuring data integrity through complete and accurate reporting of all metrics without selective presentation that might misrepresent company performance. While analyzing public data, the research acknowledges potential limitations in corporate disclosure practices and maintains a critical perspective on self-reported metrics. Furthermore, the study respects intellectual property boundaries by avoiding speculation about proprietary information beyond explicit public disclosures (Johnston, 2017). All data sources are transparently documented to ensure reproducibility and verification.
本研究仅利用来自公司报告和监管文件的公开二手数据，在保持严格标准的前提下，大幅简化了伦理要求。正如 Tripathy (2013) 所指出的，“使用公开的公司数据进行研究，消除了传统的知情同意要求，同时引入了准确陈述的义务。” 本研究遵循已确立的二手数据分析伦理指南 (BERA, 2018)，通过完整准确地报告所有指标来确保数据的完整性，避免选择性呈现可能歪曲公司业绩的数据。在分析公开数据时，本研究承认公司信息披露实践中存在的潜在局限性，并对自述指标保持批判性视角。此外，本研究尊重知识产权界限，避免对明确公开披露之外的专有信息进行推测 (Johnston, 2017)。所有数据来源均以透明的方式记录，以确保可重复性和可验证性。

5. Research Findings and Results
5. 研究发现和结果

5.1 Project Portfolio Analysis
5.1 项目组合分析

To understand how NEV manufacturers translate theoretical project management frameworks into concrete strategic actions during supply chain crises, this section provides a comprehensive analysis of twelve selected projects implemented by Tesla and BYD between 2020-2024. These projects represent diverse strategic responses to battery raw material shortages and supply chain uncertainties. The analysis examines each project's strategic characteristics, providing empirical foundations for subsequent quantitative analysis of strategy-performance relationships.
为了理解新能源汽车制造商如何在供应链危机期间将理论项目管理框架转化为具体的战略行动，本节对特斯拉和比亚迪在2020年至2024年间实施的12个项目进行了全面分析。这些项目代表了应对电池原材料短缺和供应链不确定性的不同战略应对措施。分析考察了每个项目的战略特征，为后续战略与绩效关系的定量分析提供了实证基础。

5.1.1 Tesla Project Analysis
5.1.1 特斯拉项目分析

(1) Nevada Lithium Mining Project (September 2020)
（1） 内华达州锂矿项目（2020 年 9 月）

This project marked Tesla's strategic implementation of vertical integration by acquiring 10,000 acres of lithium resources in Nevada and advancing clay-based lithium extraction technology (Lambert, 2020). The project embodies typical Vertical Integration and Supply Chain Diversification strategies (Williamson, 1985), aimed at reducing dependence on international resource markets, though such expansion into non-core areas may lead to governance challenges (Morris, 2013).
该项目标志着特斯拉通过收购内华达州 10,000 英亩锂资源并推进粘土基锂提取技术，实现了垂直整合的战略实施（Lambert，2020）。该项目体现了典型的垂直整合和供应链多元化战略（Williamson，1985），旨在减少对国际资源市场的依赖，但这种向非核心领域的扩张可能会带来治理挑战（Morris，2013）。

(2) 4680 Battery Pilot Production Project (Early 2021)
（2） 4680 电池中试生产项目（2021 年初）

This project introduced the 4680 tabless battery structure to enhance energy density and reduce dependence on scarce resources such as nickel and cobalt (Zacks Equity Research, 2025). The project embodies Circular Economy/Recycling Strategy principles through reduced raw material usage (Olivetti et al., 2017), while also undertaking Inventory and Buffer Strategy functions and demonstrating Technology and Process Optimization strategy.
该项目引入了 4680 无铅电池结构，以提高能量密度并减少对镍和钴等稀缺资源的依赖（Zacks Equity Research，2025）。该项目通过减少原材料使用体现了循环经济/回收战略原则（Olivetti 等人，2017），同时还承担了库存和缓冲战略职能，并展示了技术和流程优化战略。

(3) Lathrop Megapack Factory (September 2021)
（3） Lathrop Megapack Factory（2021 年 9 月）

Located in California, this factory focuses on localized energy storage system manufacturing to shorten delivery cycles (Ali, 2021). It embodies Tesla's Localization strategy, enhancing resilience against geopolitical uncertainties, while also reflecting Inventory and Buffer Strategy deployment logic due to its capacity buffering capabilities (Christopher & Peck, 2004).
该工厂位于加州，专注于本地化储能系统制造，以缩短交付周期（Ali，2021）。它体现了特斯拉的本地化战略，增强了对地缘政治不确定性的韧性，同时也因其产能缓冲能力而体现了“库存与缓冲策略”的部署逻辑（Christopher & Peck，2004）。

(4) Talon Nickel Mining Agreement (January 2022)
（4） Talon 镍矿开采协议（ 2022 年 1 月 ）

Tesla signed a long-term nickel supply agreement with Talon Metals to secure core raw material supply (Talon Metals Corp, 2025). This agreement reflects vertical integration strategy to strengthen resource control and Supply Chain Diversification deployment, reducing dependence on specific overseas mineral sources.
特斯拉与 Talon Metals 签署了长期镍供应协议，以确保核心原材料供应（Talon Metals Corp，2025）。该协议体现了特斯拉的垂直整合战略，旨在加强资源控制和供应链多元化部署，减少对特定海外矿产来源的依赖。

(5) Berlin Gigafactory (June 2022)
（5） 柏林超级工厂（2022 年 6 月）

As Tesla's flagship manufacturing base in Europe, this factory achieves integrated local manufacturing of vehicles and batteries, reducing cross-border transportation and enhancing regional responsiveness (Schimroszik and Steitz, 2022). This embodies Localization strategy while demonstrating synergistic application of Vertical Integration and Supply Chain Diversification strategies (Ivanov & Dolgui, 2020).
作为特斯拉在欧洲的旗舰制造基地，该工厂实现了整车和电池的本地一体化生产，减少了跨境运输，提升了区域响应能力（Schimroszik and Steitz，2022）。这体现了本地化战略，同时也展现了垂直整合战略与供应链多元化战略的协同应用（Ivanov & Dolgui，2020）。

(6) Piedmont Lithium Cooperation (February 2024)
（6） Piedmont Lithium Cooperation（2024 年 2 月）

Tesla signed a domestic lithium supply agreement with Piedmont Lithium, securing critical resources in North Carolina (Scheyder, 2024). This project reflects Vertical Integration and constitutes an important component of localization strategy while promoting Supply Chain Diversification (Williamson, 1985), representing long-term defensive resource allocation (Tang, 2006).
特斯拉与 Piedmont Lithium 签署了美国本土锂供应协议，确保了其在北卡罗来纳州的关键资源（Scheyder，2024）。该项目体现了特斯拉的垂直整合战略，是其本地化战略的重要组成部分，同时也促进了其供应链多元化（Williamson，1985），体现了特斯拉长期防御性资源配置的理念（Tang，2006）。

5.1.2 BYD Project Analysis
5.1.2 比亚迪项目分析

(1) Blade Battery Project (March 2020)
（1） 刀片电池项目（2020 年 3 月）

This project marked BYD's systematic breakthrough in battery safety and sustainability. The Blade Battery maximizes space utilization through elongated structure while reducing dependence on high-cost rare metals such as cobalt and nickel (Tarascon & Armand, 2011). The project embodies Circular Economy/Recycling Strategy principles and Technology and Process Optimization orientation through modular structure (Hertz, 2025).
该项目标志着比亚迪在电池安全性和可持续性方面的系统性突破。刀片电池通过细长结构最大限度地利用空间，同时减少对钴和镍等高成本稀有金属的依赖（Tarascon & Armand，2011）。该项目通过模块化结构体现了循环经济/回收战略原则以及技术和工艺优化导向（Hertz，2025）。

(2) e‑Platform 3.0 Project (Early 2021)
（2） e 平台 3.0 项目（2021 年初）

e‑Platform 3.0 integrates Blade Battery, eight-in-one electric drive system, CTB structure, and intelligent control system, achieving integrated software-hardware design (Rahman, 2021). The platform demonstrates significant Technology and Process Optimization strategy, with all core modules independently developed by BYD, constituting strong Vertical Integration characteristics, and reflecting circular economy tendencies (BYD, 2023).
e-Platform 3.0 集成了刀片电池、八合一电驱动系统、CTB 结构和智能控制系统，实现了软硬件一体化设计（Rahman，2021）。该平台体现了显著的技术和工艺优化战略，所有核心模块均由比亚迪自主开发，具有强大的垂直整合特征，并体现了循环经济趋势（比亚迪，2023）。

(3) ICE Vehicle Phase-out Strategy (April 2022)
（3） 内燃机汽车淘汰战略（2022 年 4 月）

BYD announced complete cessation of ICE vehicle production, becoming the first major automaker to abandon internal combustion engine passenger vehicles (Reuters, 2022). This strategy released resources by stopping inefficient operations, implementing Inventory and Buffer Strategy while promoting supply chain reorganization, constituting Supply Chain Diversification measures (Morris, 2013).
比亚迪宣布全面停止内燃机汽车生产，成为首家放弃内燃机乘用车的大型汽车制造商（路透社，2022 年）。该战略通过停止低效运营、实施库存和缓冲策略以及推动供应链重组来释放资源，构成了供应链多元化措施（Morris，2013 年）。

(4) Brazil Lithium Valley Mining Rights Project (Early 2023)
（4） 巴西锂谷采矿权项目（2023 年初）

This project strengthens autonomous control over critical mineral resources by acquiring lithium mining rights in Brazil (Westerheide, 2025). The project embodies Vertical Integration logic and reduces dependence on domestic scarce resources while balancing geopolitical risks, constituting Supply Chain Diversification extension (Williamson, 1985).
该项目通过收购巴西锂矿开采权，加强了对关键矿产资源的自主控制（Westerheide，2025）。该项目体现了“纵向一体化”的逻辑，在平衡地缘政治风险的同时，减少了对国内稀缺资源的依赖，构成了供应链多元化的延伸（Williamson，1985）。

(5) Changchun Blade Battery Factory (September 2023)
（5） 长春刀片电池工厂（2023 年 9 月）

BYD partnered with FAW to establish a battery manufacturing base in Changchun, located near OEM assembly lines (Randall, 2023). This project embodies Localization strategy logic by reducing logistics costs through geographical proximity while possessing Inventory and Buffer Strategy functions, optimizing supply chain stability (Christopher, 2016).
比亚迪与一汽合作，在长春建立了电池生产基地，该基地位于整车厂装配线附近（Randall，2023）。该项目体现了本地化战略逻辑，通过地理邻近降低物流成本，同时具备库存和缓冲策略功能，优化了供应链稳定性（Christopher，2016）。

(6) Xuzhou Sodium-ion Battery Project (January 2024)
（6） 徐州钠离子电池项目（2024 年 1 月）

This project explores sodium-ion energy storage systems as alternatives to lithium resources, representing BYD's forward-looking technological reserves (Opletal, 2024). The project demonstrates Technology and Process Optimization direction and responds to Circular Economy/Recycling concepts by breaking free from structural dependence on high-cost resources, enhancing technological resilience under future extreme scenarios (Martinsuo, 2013).
该项目探索钠离子储能系统作为锂资源的替代品，体现了比亚迪前瞻性的技术储备（Opletal，2024）。该项目展示了技术和工艺优化方向，并响应了循环经济/回收利用理念，摆脱了对高成本资源的结构性依赖，增强了未来极端情景下的技术韧性（Martinsuo，2013）。

Based on the above description and analysis, these twelve items have been summarized and concluded as shown in the table. Both companies demonstrate sophisticated integration of multiple strategic orientations within individual projects, with clear patterns emerging in their strategic preferences and implementation approaches. Tesla shows stronger emphasis on vertical integration and localization strategies, particularly in securing upstream resource control, while BYD demonstrates more balanced deployment across all strategic categories with notable innovation in technological optimization and circular economy approaches. These project analyses establish the empirical foundation for understanding how theoretical project management frameworks translate into measurable performance outcomes.
基于以上描述和分析，我们对这十二项内容进行了总结，如表所示。 两家公司均在具体项目中展现出对多种战略方向的精妙整合，并在战略偏好和实施路径上呈现出清晰的规律。特斯拉更加注重垂直整合和本土化战略，尤其注重确保上游资源的控制；而比亚迪则在各战略类别中展现出更为均衡的布局，并在技术优化和循环经济方法方面取得了显著的创新。这些项目分析为理解项目管理理论框架如何转化为可衡量的绩效结果奠定了实证基础。

Table. 2 Tesla’s project and classifications (2020-2024)
表 2 特斯拉项目及分类（2020-2024 ）

Table. 3 BYD’s projects and classifications (2020-2024)
表 3 比亚迪项目及分类（2020-2024 ）

5.2 Descriptive Statistics
5.2 描述统计

5.2.1 Cumulative Intensity of Strategy Implementation
5.2.1 战略实施累计强度

Table X presents the descriptive statistics of the cumulative implementation intensity for six project management strategies across 20 observation samples. These values are calculated based on an 18-month influence period and weighted using an exponential decay model, reflecting the aggregated application strength of each strategy over time.
表 X 展示了 20 个观察样本中六种项目管理策略的累积实施强度的描述性统计数据。这些值基于 18 个月的影响期计算，并使用指数衰减模型加权，反映了每种策略随时间的总体应用强度。

According to the statistical results, the Inventory and Buffer strategy exhibits the highest average cumulative intensity (Mean = 0.5250, SD = 0.46524), indicating that this strategy has been more frequently and consistently applied within the sample. Following this, the Vertical Integration, Localization, and Supply Chain Diversification strategies show identical mean values (Mean = 0.4250). Among them, Localization shows the highest variation (SD = 0.55666), suggesting a greater inconsistency in its application across projects, while Vertical Integration shows the lowest variation (SD = 0.38984), indicating a more uniform level of implementation. The Technology and Process Optimization strategy has a moderate average intensity (Mean = 0.3875, SD = 0.44036), whereas the Circular Economy/Recycling strategy ranks the lowest, with an average of only 0.2500 (SD = 0.37170), suggesting that its application remains relatively limited within the observed projects.
统计结果显示，库存与缓冲策略的平均累积强度最高（均值=0.5250，标准差=0.46524），表明该策略在样本中应用频率较高且一致性较高。其次，垂直整合、本地化和供应链多元化策略的均值相同（均值=0.4250）。其中，本地化策略的变异性最高（标准差=0.55666），表明其在项目间应用的不一致性较大；垂直整合策略的变异性最低（标准差=0.38984），表明其实施水平较为统一。技术和流程优化策略的平均强度中等（均值=0.3875，标准差=0.44036），循环经济/回收策略的变异性最低，均值仅为0.2500（标准差=0.37170），表明其在所观察项目中的应用仍然相对有限。

Table. 4
表 4​

5.2.2 Statistical Overview of Theoretical Application Intensity
5.2.2 理论应用强度统计概况

Table X presents the descriptive statistics of the application intensity of three project management theories across 20 observed cases, along with the cumulative influence intensity across all strategic dimensions, reflecting the average degree of theoretical application and its variability across different projects.
表 X 给出了三种项目管理理论在 20 个观察案例中的应用强度的描述性统计数据，以及在所有战略维度上的累积影响强度，反映了理论应用的平均程度及其在不同项目中的差异性。

Among the three theories, Project Resilience Theory shows the highest average intensity (Mean = 0.8500, SD = 0.65091), indicating that it is widely adopted in the sampled projects to guide responses to uncertainty and external disruptions. Agile Project Management follows with a mean of 0.8125 (SD = 0.47208), and its relatively low standard deviation suggests consistent application across cases. Risk and Uncertainty Management Theory has a moderate average score of 0.7750 (SD = 0.63298), with slightly higher variability in usage. Additionally, the cumulative influence intensity has an average value of 2.4375 (SD = 1.48207), representing the total accumulated impact of all strategic applications. This provides a broader view of the overall strategic implementation across the sampled projects.
在三种理论中，项目韧性理论的平均强度最高（均值 = 0.8500，标准差 = 0.65091），表明该理论在样本项目中被广泛采用，用于指导项目应对不确定性和外部干扰。敏捷项目管理理论紧随其后，其均值为 0.8125（标准差 = 0.47208），其相对较低的标准差表明其在各个案例中的应用具有一致性。风险与不确定性管理理论的平均得分为 0.7750（标准差 = 0.63298），处于中等水平，但其使用差异略大。 此外，累积影响强度的平均值为 2.4375（标准差 = 1.48207），代表了所有战略应用的累积影响总和。这为了解样本项目的整体战略实施情况提供了更广阔的视角。

Table. 5
表 5​

5.2.3 Descriptive Statistics of Performance Change Rates
5.2.3 绩效变化率的描述统计

Table X summarizes the descriptive statistics of the semi-annual year-on-year change rates for three key performance indicators: production volume, inventory turnover days, and average cost per vehicle. These rates are calculated by comparing each six-month period to the corresponding period in the previous year, thereby capturing medium-term shifts in project performance across output, efficiency, and cost dimensions. Among the three indicators, production volume demonstrates the highest variability, with a mean of 0.7667 and a standard deviation of 0.8739 (ranging from –0.560 to 3.120), suggesting substantial fluctuations in output across different periods, including instances of remarkable expansion. In contrast, inventory turnover days exhibit relative stability, with a mean of 0.0125 and a standard deviation of 0.1845, indicating limited changes in operational efficiency for most projects. Meanwhile, the average cost per vehicle shows moderate variation, with a mean of 0.0435 and a standard deviation of 0.3402, which may reflect differences in cost control effectiveness due to varying degrees of responsiveness to strategic interventions or external supply-side disruptions.
表 X 总结了三项关键绩效指标（产量、库存周转天数和每辆车平均成本）半年同比变化率的描述性统计数据。这些比率是通过将每六个月与上一年同期进行比较计算得出的，从而捕捉项目绩效在产出、效率和成本维度上的中期变化。在这三个指标中，产量的变异性最高，均值为 0.7667，标准差为 0.8739（范围从 -0.560 到 3.120），表明产量在不同时期波动较大，包括显著扩张的情况。相比之下，库存周转天数表现相对稳定，均值为 0.0125，标准差为 0.1845，表明大多数项目的运营效率变化有限。同时，每辆车的平均成本表现出中等程度的变化，平均值为 0.0435，标准差为 0.3402，这可能反映了由于对战略干预或外部供应侧中断的响应程度不同而导致的成本控制效果的差异。

Table. 6
表 6​

5.3 Correlation Analysis of Strategic Measures and Performance
5.3 战略措施与绩效的相关性分析

Given the limited sample size (N = 20), this section adopts an exploratory approach to examine the potential relationships between strategic project management measures and key performance indicators. Rather than placing emphasis solely on statistical significance, the analysis prioritizes the strength and direction of Pearson correlation coefficients, while p-values are included as supplementary references. According to Cohen’s classification (1988), the effect size of correlation can be interpreted as small when the coefficient is between 0.10 and 0.29, medium when it is between 0.30 and 0.49, and large when it is greater than or equal to 0.50. Although a p-value below 0.05 typically indicates statistical significance, the small sample size in this study limits the reliability of such thresholds. Therefore, more interpretative value is assigned to the size of the correlation coefficient rather than the significance level alone.
鉴于样本量有限（N = 20），本节采用探索性方法，考察战略项目管理措施与关键绩效指标之间的潜在关系。分析并非仅仅强调统计显著性，而是优先考虑皮尔逊相关系数的强度和方向，并提供 p 值作为补充参考。根据科恩（Cohen）的分类（1988），当系数在 0.10 至 0.29 之间时，相关性的效应大小可解释为小；在 0.30 至 0.49 之间时，相关性的效应大小可解释为中等；大于或等于 0.50 时，相关性的效应大小可解释为大。虽然低于 0.05 的 p 值通常表示统计显著性，但本研究中的小样本量限制了此类阈值的可靠性。因此，相关系数的大小比显著性水平本身更具有解释价值。

Table. 7
表 7​

This correlation analysis investigates how six strategic measures, including vertical integration, localization, inventory and buffer strategies, circular economy and recycling, supply chain diversification, and technology and process optimization, are associated with three performance indicators. These indicators consist of the semi-annual change rates of production volume, inventory turnover days, and average cost per vehicle. Among all observed relationships, the circular economy and recycling
本相关性分析探讨了垂直整合、本地化、库存和缓冲策略、循环经济和回收利用、供应链多元化以及技术和流程优化等六项战略措施与三项绩效指标之间的关联。这三项指标包括产量、库存周转天数和每辆车平均成本的半年变化率。在所有观察到的关系中，循环经济和回收利用

strategy exhibits the strongest association, showing a moderate positive correlation with the change rate of inventory turnover days (r = 0.453, p = 0.045). This suggests a potential link between the adoption of recycling-oriented practices and improvements in operational efficiency. Vertical integration presents a moderate positive correlation with cost performance (r = 0.313), though not statistically significant (p = 0.180), indicating a possible tendency for vertically integrated firms to reduce per-unit costs during periods of supply chain pressure.
策略的关联性最强，与库存周转天数变化率呈中等正相关（r = 0.453，p = 0.045）。这表明采用以回收为导向的实践与运营效率的提高之间存在潜在联系。垂直整合与成本绩效呈中等正相关（r = 0.313），但统计上并不显著（p = 0.180），这表明在供应链压力时期，垂直整合企业可能倾向于降低单位成本。

The relationship between technology and process optimization and performance is relatively weak, with a minimal correlation with production volume (r = 0.040) and a slight negative correlation with average cost (r = –0.146). Inventory and buffer strategies demonstrate a small negative correlation with cost (r = –0.289), which may imply that excessive reliance on buffers is associated with limited cost efficiency. Localization and supply chain diversification both exhibit weak and inconsistent correlations across all three performance indicators, suggesting either limited overall impact or high variability depending on context. Finally, cumulative influence intensity, a composite metric representing the total implementation level of all six strategies, shows only weak correlations with the performance indicators. This suggests that a higher quantity of strategic interventions does not necessarily lead to improved performance outcomes.
技术和流程优化与绩效之间的关系相对较弱，与产量的相关性极小（r = 0.040），与平均成本略呈负相关（r = -0.146）。库存和缓冲策略与成本呈轻微负相关（r = -0.289），这可能意味着过度依赖缓冲会导致成本效率受限。本地化和供应链多样化在所有三个绩效指标中均表现出弱且不一致的相关性，表明整体影响有限或根据情况变化较大。最后，累积影响强度（代表所有六种策略总体实施水平的综合指标）与绩效指标仅表现出弱相关性。这表明，更多的战略干预并不一定会带来更好的绩效结果。

Overall, the findings indicate that production volume is relatively more strongly correlated with circular economy and recycling strategies, while inventory turnover days also show a relatively strong association with circular economy measures. In terms of cost performance, both vertical integration and circular economy strategies demonstrate stronger correlations with the average cost per vehicle, suggesting that these two approaches may be more effective in supporting cost control under material constraints. Although many strategy-performance correlations in this study are weak and not statistically significant, this may be attributable to the small sample size and the influence of uncontrollable external environmental factors. Nevertheless, the observed trends offer initial insights into potential patterns and provide a conceptual foundation for future research based on larger samples and more robust study designs.
总体而言，研究结果表明，产量与循环经济和回收策略的相关性相对较强，而库存周转天数与循环经济措施的关联性也相对较强。在成本效益方面，垂直整合和循环经济战略均与每辆车的平均成本表现出更强的相关性，这表明这两种方法在材料约束下可能更有效地支持成本控制。尽管本研究中许多战略与绩效的相关性较弱且不具有统计显著性，但这可能归因于样本量较小以及不可控的外部环境因素的影响。尽管如此，观察到的趋势为潜在的模式提供了初步的见解，并为基于更大样本和更稳健的研究设计的未来研究提供了概念基础。

6. Discussion
6.讨论

6.1 Overview of Key Findings
6.1 主要发现概述

This study investigated how Tesla and BYD adapted their project management strategies to address battery raw material shortages during the 2020-2024 global supply chain crisis. Before examining specific findings, it is important to acknowledge that most observed correlations were weak to moderate with limited statistical significance. This reflects inherent challenges in crisis-context research: small sample size (N=20) reduces statistical power, the 18-month observation window may be insufficient for long-term strategies, and the complex nature of organizational performance during crises introduces substantial noise. These methodological realities suggest findings should be interpreted as exploratory patterns rather than definitive causal relationships.
本研究探讨了特斯拉和比亚迪在 2020-2024 年全球供应链危机期间如何调整其项目管理策略以应对电池原材料短缺。在探讨具体研究结果之前，需要指出的是，大多数观察到的相关性为弱至中等程度，且统计显著性有限。这反映了危机情境研究的固有挑战：样本量较小（N=20）会降低统计检验力，18 个月的观察期可能不足以支持长期战略，而且危机期间组织绩效的复杂性会引入大量噪音。这些方法论上的现实表明，研究结果应被解读为探索性模式，而非确定性的因果关系。

First, strategic implementation patterns reveal distinct crisis response preferences. Inventory and buffer strategies exhibited the highest cumulative implementation intensity (Mean = 0.5250), indicating both companies prioritized immediate operational continuity. Vertical integration, localization, and supply chain diversification showed equal intensity (Mean = 0.4250), suggesting balanced attention to structural adjustments. Circular economy/recycling strategies showed the lowest intensity (Mean = 0.2500), reflecting their nascent stage during the crisis period.
首先，战略实施模式揭示了不同的危机应对偏好。库存和缓冲策略的累积实施强度最高（平均值 = 0.5250），表明两家公司都优先考虑即时的运营连续性。垂直整合、本地化和供应链多元化的强度相同（平均值 = 0.4250），表明对结构调整的关注度均衡。循环经济/回收利用策略的强度最低（平均值 = 0.2500），反映出这些策略在危机期间尚处于起步阶段。

Second, correlation analysis reveals selective strategy-performance relationships challenging comprehensive deployment assumptions. The most significant finding is the moderate positive correlation between circular economy/recycling strategies and inventory turnover efficiency (r = 0.453, p = 0.045), suggesting sustainable practices enhance operational efficiency beyond environmental objectives. Vertical integration demonstrated moderate positive correlation with cost performance (r = 0.313), supporting theoretical expectations about internal control mechanisms. However, cumulative influence intensity showed only weak correlations across all performance indicators (r = 0.084-0.215), indicating strategy quantity does not necessarily translate to enhanced outcomes.
其次，相关性分析揭示了选择性战略与绩效之间的关系，这挑战了全面的部署假设。最重要的发现是循环经济/回收战略与库存周转效率之间存在中等正相关性（r = 0.453，p = 0.045），这表明可持续实践在实现环境目标的同时，还能提升运营效率。垂直整合与成本绩效呈现中等正相关性（r = 0.313），这支持了关于内部控制机制的理论预期。然而，累积影响强度在所有绩效指标中仅表现出弱相关性（r = 0.084-0.215），这表明战略数量并不一定能转化为绩效的提升。

Third, hypothesis testing reveals mixed support for theoretical predictions. H1, predicting strong positive correlation between vertical integration and cost performance, received partial support (r = 0.313, p = 0.180). While directionally correct, the correlation was moderate rather than strong, likely due to substantial upfront investments in Tesla's Nevada lithium mining and BYD's Brazil lithium valley projects temporarily offsetting cost benefits. H2, predicting strong positive correlation between circular economy strategy and operational efficiency, received full support with the strongest correlation observed (r = 0.453, p = 0.045), validating that sustainable resource management creates measurable operational advantages. H3, hypothesizing positive correlation between technology optimization and production performance, was not supported (r = 0.040, p = 0.867). The weak correlation suggests technological innovations like BYD's e-Platform 3.0 and Tesla's 4680 battery projects may require extended periods to translate into measurable production improvements.
第三，假设检验显示，理论预测结果好坏参半。假设 1 预测垂直整合与成本效益之间存在强正相关性，结果获得部分支持（r = 0.313，p = 0.180）。虽然方向正确，但相关性适中而非强，这可能是因为特斯拉在内华达州锂矿开采和比亚迪在巴西锂谷项目中的大量前期投资暂时抵消了成本效益。假设 2 预测循环经济战略与运营效率之间存在强正相关性，结果获得完全支持，相关性最强（r = 0.453，p = 0.045），证实了可持续资源管理能够创造可衡量的运营优势。 假设 3 假设技术优化与生产绩效之间存在正相关性，结果未获得支持（r = 0.040，p = 0.867）。弱相关性表明，像比亚迪的 e-Platform 3.0 和特斯拉的 4680 电池项目这样的技术创新可能需要较长时间才能转化为可衡量的生产改进。

These findings collectively suggest effective NEV crisis management requires strategic selectivity rather than comprehensive deployment, with particular emphasis on sustainable resource management approaches demonstrating the strongest empirical performance relationships.
这些发现共同表明，有效的 NEV 危机管理需要战略选择而不是全面部署，特别强调可持续资源管理方法表现出最强的经验绩效关系。

6.2 Discussion of Findings in Relation to Theory
6.2 与理论相关的研究结果讨论

The empirical findings provide both support for and challenges to the three theoretical frameworks examined in the literature review, offering nuanced insights into their applicability in crisis contexts.
实证研究结果对文献综述中考察的三个理论框架既提供了支持，也提出了挑战，为它们在危机环境中的适用性提供了细致的见解。

6.2.1 Alignment with Project Resilience Theory
6.2.1 与项目弹性理论的契合

The strong performance of vertical integration strategies aligns closely with project resilience theory's emphasis on transforming external uncertainties into internally controllable factors (Naderpajouh et al., 2023). The moderate positive correlation between vertical integration and cost performance (r = 0.313) supports the theory's proposition that resilience emerges through systematic adaptive capabilities rather than reactive measures. Tesla's Nevada lithium mining project and BYD's Brazil lithium valley initiatives exemplify how resilience-oriented strategies create "contextual processing" capabilities, allowing organizations to reconstruct meaning and develop adaptive responses as adversity unfolds (Naderpajouh et al., 2023). However, the findings challenge the theory's assumption about emergent properties of complex adaptive systems (Williams et al., 2017). The weak correlation between cumulative strategic intensity and performance outcomes suggests that resilience may not automatically emerge from increased strategic complexity, contradicting the theory's emphasis on holistic system adaptation.
垂直整合战略的强劲表现与项目韧性理论强调将外部不确定性转化为内部可控因素的理念高度契合（Naderpajouh 等人，2023）。垂直整合与成本效益之间的中等正相关性（r = 0.313）支持了该理论的命题，即韧性源于系统性的适应能力，而非被动应对措施。特斯拉的内华达锂矿项目和比亚迪的巴西锂谷项目体现了以韧性为导向的战略如何创造“情境处理”能力，使组织能够在逆境中重建意义并制定适应性应对措施（Naderpajouh 等人，2023）。然而，这些研究结果挑战了该理论关于复杂自适应系统涌现特性的假设（Williams 等人，2017）。累积战略强度与绩效结果之间的弱相关性表明，韧性可能不会自动从战略复杂性的增加中产生，这与该理论强调整体系统适应性的观点相矛盾。

6.2.2 Partial Validation of Risk and Uncertainty Management Theory
6.2.2 风险和不确定性管理理论的部分验证

The unexpected strong performance of circular economy strategies provides novel validation for risk and uncertainty management theory's opportunity-focused paradigm. The significant correlation between circular economy approaches and operational efficiency (r = 0.453, p = 0.045) demonstrates Chapman's (2000) proposition that uncertainty management should transcend threat mitigation to embrace value creation opportunities. This finding addresses Johansen et al.'s (2016) critique about unexploited opportunities in project risk management, showing how sustainable resource strategies can simultaneously address supply risks and create operational advantages. However, the weak performance of inventory and buffer strategies challenges traditional risk management assumptions. The negative correlation with cost performance (r = -0.289) contradicts Bode & Wagner's (2015) findings about buffer effectiveness, suggesting that Milliken's (1987) uncertainty typology may require contextual modification in resource-constrained industries where buffer costs exceed protection benefits.
循环经济战略的意外强劲表现，为风险与不确定性管理理论以机会为中心的范式提供了新的验证。循环经济方法与运营效率之间的显著相关性（r = 0.453，p = 0.045）证实了 Chapman (2000) 的主张，即不确定性管理应超越威胁缓解，拥抱价值创造机会。这一发现回应了 Johansen 等人（2016）对项目风险管理中未开发机会的批评，展示了可持续资源战略如何同时应对供应风险并创造运营优势。然而，库存和缓冲战略的疲软表现挑战了传统的风险管理假设。与成本绩效的负相关性（r = -0.289）与 Bode & Wagner (2015) 关于缓冲有效性的发现相矛盾，这表明 Milliken (1987) 的不确定性类型学在缓冲成本超过保护收益的资源受限行业中可能需要进行情境调整。

6.2.3 Limited Support for Agile Project Management Theory
6.2.3 对敏捷项目管理理论的支持有限

The findings provide limited empirical support for agile project management theory's core assumptions about adaptive planning and iterative development (Conforto et al., 2014). Technology and process optimization strategies, which embody agile principles of continuous improvement and rapid response to change, showed minimal correlation with production performance (r = 0.040). This contradicts Beck et al.'s (2001) assertion that adaptive approaches outperform traditional predictive planning in uncertain environments. The weak performance may reflect Jahr's (2014) concerns about agile limitations in capital-intensive industries requiring strict cost and time control. Supply chain diversification strategies, despite theoretically aligning with agile flexibility principles, demonstrated inconsistent correlations across performance dimensions, supporting Dikert et al.'s (2016) findings about scalability challenges in large-scale agile transformations.
研究结果为敏捷项目管理理论关于自适应规划和迭代开发的核心假设提供了有限的实证支持（Conforto 等人，2014）。体现持续改进和快速响应变化的敏捷原则的技术和流程优化策略与生产绩效的相关性极小（r = 0.040）。这与 Beck 等人（2001）的断言相矛盾，即自适应方法在不确定的环境中优于传统的预测规划。较弱的表现可能反映了 Jahr（2014）对需要严格成本和时间控制的资本密集型行业的敏捷局限性的担忧。供应链多元化战略尽管在理论上符合敏捷灵活性原则，但在各个绩效维度上表现出不一致的相关性，支持了 Dikert 等人（2016）关于大规模敏捷转型中的可扩展性挑战的发现。

6.3 Practical Implications
6.3 实际意义

The research findings offer several actionable insights for organizations navigating supply chain crises, with particular emphasis on the transformative potential of circular economy approaches that demonstrated the strongest empirical performance relationships.
研究结果为应对供应链危机的组织提供了一些可行的见解，特别强调了表现出最强经验绩效关系的循环经济方法的变革潜力。

6.3.1 Circular Economy as Strategic Priority
6.3.1 循环经济作为战略重点

The strong correlation between circular economy strategies and operational efficiency (r = 0.453, p = 0.045) reveals that sustainable resource management creates measurable competitive advantages beyond environmental compliance. This finding is particularly striking given that circular economy strategies showed the lowest implementation intensity (Mean = 0.2500), suggesting they demonstrate the highest performance potential per unit of strategic investment. The strong correlation despite limited deployment indicates significant untapped opportunities for early adopters. This aligns with research suggesting circular business models enhance organizational resilience through resource autonomy (Geissdoerfer et al., 2018). The low implementation frequency combined with high performance correlation implies first-mover advantages for companies prioritizing circular resource management before it becomes industry standard. Recent studies in automotive manufacturing confirm that circular strategies can reduce material dependency by up to 40% while improving operational metrics (Korhonen et al., 2018). Practical implementation should focus on material flow optimization through design for disassembly, strategic partnerships with recycling facilities, and technology integration enabling real-time material tracking. BYD's sodium-ion battery project and Tesla's 4680 battery design exemplify how circular principles simultaneously address resource constraints and operational efficiency.
循环经济战略与运营效率之间的强相关性（r = 0.453，p = 0.045）表明，可持续资源管理除了符合环境合规要求外，还能创造可衡量的竞争优势。鉴于循环经济战略的实施强度最低（平均值 = 0.2500），这一发现尤为引人注目，这表明它们展现出每单位战略投资最高的绩效潜力。尽管部署有限，但这种强相关性表明早期采用者仍拥有巨大的未开发机会。这与循环商业模式通过资源自主性增强组织韧性的研究结果一致（Geissdoerfer 等人，2018 年）。较低的实施频率与较高的绩效相关性意味着，在循环资源管理成为行业标准之前优先考虑它的公司将拥有先发优势。汽车制造业的最新研究证实，循环战略可以减少高达 40% 的材料依赖，同时改善运营指标（Korhonen 等人，2018 年）。 实际实施应侧重于通过可拆卸设计、与回收设施建立战略合作伙伴关系以及实现实时材料追踪的技术集成来优化物料流。比亚迪的钠离子电池项目和特斯拉的 4680 电池设计体现了循环原则如何同时解决资源限制和运营效率问题。

6.3.2 Integrated Strategic Framework
6.3.2 综合战略框架

Based on the empirical evidence, NEV enterprises facing future battery raw material constraints should adopt an integrated "Resource Independence Framework" combining three strategic pillars. First, circular resource mastery through comprehensive material lifecycle management, including battery-to-battery recycling, alternative chemistry development (as demonstrated by BYD's sodium-ion initiative), and cross-industry material partnerships. Second, selective upstream control of the most critical and volatile materials through strategic vertical integration, focusing on lithium and rare earth elements where supply concentration creates maximum vulnerability. Third, localized production networks that reduce dependency on global material flows and enable rapid response to regional supply variations, as evidenced by Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory and BYD's Changchun facility strategies.
基于经验证据，未来面临电池原材料约束的新能源汽车企业应采用整合的“资源独立框架”，该框架包含三大战略支柱。首先，通过全面的材料生命周期管理，实现循环资源的掌控，包括电池到电池的回收利用、替代化学开发（比亚迪的钠离子电池项目就是例证）以及跨行业材料合作。其次，通过战略性垂直整合，选择性地控制最关键、最不稳定的上游材料，重点关注锂和稀土元素，因为这些元素的供应集中度会导致最大的脆弱性。第三，建立本地化生产网络，减少对全球材料流的依赖，并能够快速响应区域供应变化，特斯拉柏林超级工厂和比亚迪长春工厂战略就是例证。

This framework prioritizes the two empirically strongest strategies: circular economy (r = 0.453) and vertical integration (r = 0.313), while incorporating localization approaches that showed moderate implementation intensity (Mean = 0.4250). The development of such dynamic capabilities that reconfigure organizational resources is essential for sustained competitive advantage in volatile environments (Eisenhardt & Martin, 2000). Notably, while technology and process optimization strategies showed minimal short-term correlation with production performance (r = 0.040), they should be viewed as complementary long-term capabilities that enable the effective implementation of circular and integration strategies rather than standalone solutions.
该框架优先考虑两种实证研究中最强的战略：循环经济（r = 0.453）和垂直整合（r = 0.313），同时纳入了实施强度适中的本地化方法（平均值 = 0.4250）。发展这种能够重新配置组织资源的动态能力，对于在动荡的环境中保持竞争优势至关重要（Eisenhardt & Martin，2000）。值得注意的是，虽然技术和流程优化战略与生产绩效的短期相关性极小（r = 0.040），但它们应被视为互补的长期能力，有助于有效实施循环经济和整合战略，而非孤立的解决方案。

6.4 Limitation and Future Research Direction
6.4 局限性和未来研究方向 ​​

This study acknowledges several methodological and contextual limitations that constrain the generalizability of findings and suggest important avenues for future research. The analysis is based on 20 observation periods from two companies, which limits statistical power and the reliability of correlation coefficients. The small sample size prevents the use of more sophisticated analytical techniques such as multiple regression analysis or structural equation modeling, which could provide deeper insights into causal relationships between strategies and performance outcomes. The exclusive focus on Tesla and BYD, while strategically justified by their market leadership positions, may limit generalizability to other NEV manufacturers with different strategic orientations, resource bases, or operational scales.
本研究承认存在一些方法论和背景限制，这些限制了研究结果的普遍性，并为未来的研究提出了重要的方向。分析基于两家公司的20个观察期，这限制了统计功效和相关系数的可靠性。样本量较小，限制了使用更复杂的分析技术，例如多元回归分析或结构方程模型，而这些技术原本可以更深入地洞察战略与绩效结果之间的因果关系。虽然特斯拉和比亚迪的市场领先地位在战略上是合理的，但仅关注这两家公司可能会限制其对其他战略导向、资源基础或运营规模不同的新能源汽车制造商的普遍性。

The 2020-2024 observation period represents a unique historical context characterized by unprecedented disruptions, with 2020 data particularly influenced by COVID-19 pandemic effects that created extraordinary supply chain volatilities and demand fluctuations beyond typical crisis scenarios. These external environmental factors may have significantly influenced performance outcomes independently of strategic choices, making it difficult to isolate strategy-specific effects. Additionally, the 18-month strategy impact period, while theoretically grounded, may not capture the full effects of long-term structural strategies such as vertical integration or circular economy implementations, which often require multiple years to achieve optimal performance. The reliance on publicly available corporate data introduces potential limitations related to reporting consistency, disclosure completeness, and measurement standardization across different reporting periods and regulatory requirements.
2020-2024年的观察期代表着一个独特的历史背景，其特点是前所未有的中断，2020年的数据尤其受到新冠疫情的影响，疫情造成了超出典型危机情景的异常供应链波动和需求波动。这些外部环境因素可能独立于战略选择而显著影响了绩效结果，因此难以分离特定战略的影响。此外，18个月的战略影响期虽然理论上有依据，但可能无法完全捕捉到长期结构性战略（例如垂直整合或循环经济实施）的全部影响，这些战略通常需要多年才能达到最佳绩效。依赖公开的公司数据可能会带来与报告一致性、披露完整性以及不同报告期和监管要求之间的衡量标准化相关的潜在限制。

Future research should expand the sample to include additional NEV manufacturers across different geographic regions and market segments, enabling more robust statistical analysis and broader generalizability. Longitudinal studies tracking strategy implementation over 5–10-year periods would better capture long-term effects of structural strategies while controlling for external environmental variations. Advanced analytical methodologies, including structural equation modeling and machine learning approaches, could identify non-linear relationships and interaction effects between multiple strategies. Cross-industry research examining similar strategies in other resource-intensive sectors could test the applicability of findings beyond the NEV industry, while qualitative research exploring strategy implementation processes and organizational learning mechanisms would complement quantitative findings and provide deeper insights into the conditions under which different strategies prove most effective.
未来的研究应扩大样本，纳入不同地理区域和细分市场的更多新能源汽车制造商，从而实现更稳健的统计分析和更广泛的普适性。追踪战略实施情况 5 至 10 年的纵向研究，能够在控制外部环境变化的同时，更好地捕捉结构性战略的长期效应。先进的分析方法，包括结构方程模型和机器学习方法，可以识别多种战略之间的非线性关系和相互作用。跨行业研究考察其他资源密集型行业的类似战略，可以检验研究结果在新能源汽车行业以外的适用性；而探索战略实施过程和组织学习机制的定性研究，则可以补充定量研究结果，并更深入地洞察不同战略在何种条件下最有效。

7. Conclusion
7. 结论

Over the course of the 2020–2024 supply chain disruptions, Tesla and BYD took notably different paths in adapting their project management strategies to raw material shortages. This study examined those responses through the lens of the Iron Triangle—balancing cost, time, and quality—to understand how specific tactics like vertical integration, localization, and circular economy practices impacted delivery performance.
在2020年至2024年的供应链中断期间，特斯拉和比亚迪在调整项目管理策略以应对原材料短缺方面采取了截然不同的路径。本研究从“铁三角”（平衡成本、时间和质量）的视角审视了这些应对措施，以了解垂直整合、本地化和循环经济实践等具体策略如何影响交付绩效。

The results suggest that some strategies were more effective than others. Circular economy initiatives stood out for their clear link to improved operational efficiency, while vertical integration showed moderate cost benefits. Interestingly, piling on more strategies didn’t always translate to better outcomes—pointing to the value of being strategic, not just active.
结果表明，某些策略比其他策略更有效。循环经济举措因其与运营效率提升的明确关联而脱颖而出，而垂直整合则显示出中等的成本效益。有趣的是，叠加更多策略并不一定能带来更好的结果——这说明，战略性而非仅仅积极主动才具有重要意义。

In short, the research highlights that resilience and adaptability matter—but so does focus. For NEV manufacturers navigating uncertainty, choosing the right combination of targeted, well-aligned strategies may be more impactful than pursuing broad, unfocused interventions. Future research could build on this by tracking longer-term outcomes or comparing similar responses across other industries.
简而言之，这项研究强调了韧性和适应性的重要性，但专注力也同样重要。对于应对不确定性的新能源汽车制造商而言，选择有针对性、协调一致的战略组合，可能比采取广泛而无重点的干预措施更有效。未来的研究可以在此基础上，追踪长期结果或比较其他行业的类似应对措施。

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9. Appendix
9.附录